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The 1% blunder: How a simple but fatal math mistake by US Covid-19 experts caused the world to panic

I read a interesting article about dr Fauci and how he’s in bed with China and big pharmaceutical. I’ll try and find the article and post the link, but you’ll see a lot of deniers on this board they think Fauci walks on water
9 months of almost constant attention to the virus and Fauci really hasn't come up with anything new since April, and all that amounts to is "wear a mask". The guy talks all the time but never really says anything of importance. He can't say why a drug or vitamin may or may not be beneficial. For being an expert, you would think he could at least tell people to take zinc and vitamin d supplements because duh.
 
Here’s his “claim”


Published online in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM.org), the editorial stated:

“...the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).”4
Almost as a parenthetical afterthought, the NEJM editorial inaccurately stated that 0.1% is the
approximate case fatality rate of seasonal influenza.

Here’s where he’s misrepresented the first source. They said severe seasonal influenza and he felt it was okay to drop the severe tag. And not to mention we fight influenza with vaccines and known antivirals.

Moving along, a direct quote from the source for the article where he admits he doesn’t know that they used bad data, he just thinks it may have happened.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...s_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf

This terminology omission, in conjunction with questionable use of fatality rate terminology in the NEJM editorial, raises red flags—warning of possible inaccuracies in the coronavirus mortality estimation presented to Congress.
Appreciate the reply.
 
9 months of almost constant attention to the virus and Fauci really hasn't come up with anything new since April, and all that amounts to is "wear a mask". The guy talks all the time but never really says anything of importance. He can't say why a drug or vitamin may or may not be beneficial. For being an expert, you would think he could at least tell people to take zinc and vitamin d supplements because duh.
The old saying follow the money, vitamins and zinc you can buy over the counter, hyd is cheap. It was reported earlier in August the I believe it was Italy you could buy hyd over the counter in January then they pulled it. A coincidence? Australia was working on how to get ivomectin for humans to use. It kills the virus. For those who don’t know it’s a wormer delicer for cattle and other animals
 
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9 months of almost constant attention to the virus and Fauci really hasn't come up with anything new since April, and all that amounts to is "wear a mask". The guy talks all the time but never really says anything of importance. He can't say why a drug or vitamin may or may not be beneficial. For being an expert, you would think he could at least tell people to take zinc and vitamin d supplements because duh.

You haven't read his latest? We're not one with nature. Guy should be fired immediately.

https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/fauci-goes-full-pseudoscience-covid
 
i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious

Better yet....of the nine people I know that have tested positive, seven had families. Not ONE OTHER person in their family got it. Not one. This is not a statement of support for Trump or Biden, but it does raise serious questions as to just how terribly contagious Covid is when people show little to no symptoms. That, coupled with many news outlets having an agenda and using Covid as a political tool to push that agenda....and you get a large amount of the population to be pretty skeptical of what they are hearing.
 
US already has suffered crazy death totals. Deaths per million people, US(574 dead per million) has higher rate than Mexico, Germany, Canada, France. The Gov response to Covid is a disgrace and a scandal.
Because Mexico accurately reports deaths? Germany, Canada and France didn't have governors of their most densely populated states FORCING nursing homes to admit COVID positive patients.
 
Better yet....of the nine people I know that have tested positive, seven had families. Not ONE OTHER person in their family got it. Not one. This is not a statement of support for Trump or Biden, but it does raise serious questions as to just how terribly contagious Covid is when people show little to no symptoms. That, coupled with many news outlets having an agenda and using Covid as a political tool to push that agenda....and you get a large amount of the population to be pretty skeptical of what they are hearing.
The most prescient point of the article is the fact that since we have been testing asymptomatic people for months, we will never really know how deadly or contagious this virus is. There is literally nothing we can learn from logging an asymptomatic person as a positive case because there could be 1000 more asymptomatic cases that don't get logged.
 
So 180k dead in 6th months isn’t crazy?
it's a moratorium on our way of life more than anything else

the greatest response, even in hindsight, doesn't safe half

it's a shame and a terrible tragedy, but wearing a mask or sheltering in place doesn't make up for the extra 60+lbs the avg person is schlepping around on a daily basis
 
This article has nothing to do with Trump and he was never mentioned until you did. I just thought it was an interesting article on a mistake made in the initial stages of this pandemic. In all honestly, mistakes were probably going to be made in a virus that nobody really knew much about.

The $10 Trillion question is why were mistakes made with this virus that weren't made with others? Why have decades or centuries worth of medical standards been eschewed for "corona-science"? Why do some states continue to mismanage the situation instead of adjusting?
 
Well, he grabs the headline over the US, then basically rails on the UK lockdowns, primarily ignoring US data.

Did congress issue lockdowns in the US? Did I miss something? Do people disagree that New York City should have locked down? I guess I see an “article” from a Russian government paper, written by a UK doctor, referencing a draft opinion piece from an accountant in Canada saying that they “may” have mixed up a term back in March. And I wonder how people could confuse this with news.

Yes people disagree that NYC should have locked down. NYC seemingly did everything wrong. Their lockdown destroyed their local economy and and exasperated the spread of the virus.
 
About time to rename this board The Trump Chronicle. Even the moderators have gotten drunk on the TrumpAid.

il_fullxfull.1188088856_j7bs.jpg
 
Read a lot of the paper, looks to cherry pick numbers and use the word “may” a whole lot. He uses a full season (8-9 months) of Influenza A, with multiple years of revision and analysis and uses it in comparison to numbers from May 9th for COVID. Of course we’ve had 100K die since May 9th, and we continue to see revised death numbers.

Not saying mistakes weren’t made, because it’s real easy for us to poke holes in things months later when there is real evidence and data. All things that didn’t exist fully enough in March.

i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious

The “article”, from Russia Today? The literal media arm of the Russian Goverment?

Here's the non-russian version.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...s_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf
 
Only they can ruin the lives of 40 million people.

Ruin their lives? We’ve been told by people on this board that things are normal, anyone can get a job who wants one and un-employment numbers aren’t a big deal.

And besides, the rate for those over 25 who are unemployed is 7.6%, meaning people under 25 are more likely to be unemployed. They have decades to make up for this, so who’s lives are “ruined”? Why didn’t they just save up for a rainy day?
 
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About time to rename this board The Trump Chronicle. Even the moderators have gotten drunk on the TrumpAid.

better than falling asleep with you know who... whether you like Trump it is a fact that his entire presidency has been attacked more than any president (starting even before he became president with wire taps). One thing he says and I agree with NO president should have that happen
 
US already has suffered crazy death totals. Deaths per million people, US(574 dead per million) has higher rate than Mexico, Germany, Canada, France. The Gov response to Covid is a disgrace and a scandal.

I'm not so sure that any govt action short of absolute quarantine of citizens abroad on Alcatraz and such places coming back could have had any different of an outcome.

Of course by the time China let anyone know what was going down many had already made their way back home.

Novel virus that kills the elderly, no offense to the elderly, and barely scratches anyone else isn't what most people think of as a SHTF situation. Just like how people said there weren't WMDs in Iraq..there were WMDs in Iraq, they gassed the Kurds plenty enough before. Its just that the WMDs weren't nukes. Not what people were expecting yeah?

If anything we should be starting up all industry production not represented here in the States, and bringing industry home from China.

If leftists are going to use this, and all other events or non events as political siege weapons, then how about trying to push for a stronger America, not a stronger leftist position in America? See the difference?

Probably not. My money is you still won't get it.

Edit: spelling check
 
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i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious
Read this and perhaps your aim may be steered differently: https://www.localmemphis.com/articl...tive/522-bcd8c6e1-5d75-4e07-af99-ed7babed909b
 
9 months of almost constant attention to the virus and Fauci really hasn't come up with anything new since April, and all that amounts to is "wear a mask". The guy talks all the time but never really says anything of importance. He can't say why a drug or vitamin may or may not be beneficial. For being an expert, you would think he could at least tell people to take zinc and vitamin d supplements because duh.

BINGO! Dude’s FIRST act was to advice us NOT to wear masks all the while knowing it was a lie- Hippocratic oath, dr Fauci?
 
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Let's face it. NOTHING before this election is going to be seen except through a biased political lens. Doesn't matter which political lens, there will be one. You'd have to shut down the board for things to be apolitical right now.
 
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Deaths (all cause) above historical averages
Very conservative #s as data include Jan-March when C-19 deaths were minimal

a lot more humans seem to be dying in 2020

EhJe8qUXsAA-yqk
 
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i made it to the 2nd paragraph before concluding this was trash and not going any farther. some of you are so politically oriented you would believe literally anything if it backed up your politics. if covid is not very contagious why do so many people get it even while locked down; social distancing; and sometimes masking? the article lost me when it claimed it isnt very contagious

From the Article:
"Which means that we’ve had all the deaths we were ever going to get. And which also means that lockdown achieved, almost precisely nothing with regard to Covid. No deaths were prevented."
 
This has become a very strange phenomenon. For some reason, there are people that seem to WANT this to be as deadly as the original worst-case scenarios predicted it to be. Now, with more data we have a better idea of what we are actually dealing with but people are clinging to old, outdated, and discredited models because they want to justify their fear. It seems like a form of Stockholm syndrome.

I really think some people are addicted to this fear-porn.
 
So 180k dead in 6th months isn’t crazy?

That is an obviously inflated number given the CDC's guidelines for what should be coded a Covid death and the financial incentive given to code deaths as Covid caused.

Not to mention that CDC's revised numbers showing only 6% as not having co-morbidities and the average co-morbidities at 2.6 with advanced age also being a major factor.

That people continue to quote that as a legitimate number is crazy.
 
That is an obviously inflated number given the CDC's guidelines for what should be coded a Covid death and the financial incentive given to code deaths as Covid caused.

Not to mention that CDC's revised numbers showing only 6% as not having co-morbidities and the average co-morbidities at 2.6 with advanced age also being a major factor.

That people continue to quote that as a legitimate number is crazy.

take COVID out of it and just look at deaths regardless of cause - huge increase in 2020 based on yearly averages

EhJe8qUXsAA-yqk
 
Ruin their lives? We’ve been told by people on this board that things are normal, anyone can get a job who wants one and un-employment numbers aren’t a big deal.

And besides, the rate for those over 25 who are unemployed is 7.6%, meaning people under 25 are more likely to be unemployed. They have decades to make up for this, so who’s lives are “ruined”? Why didn’t they just save up for a rainy day?

Many lives ruined and shortened by this monstrosity of an overreaction.

https://www.revolver.news/2020/08/study-covid-19-lockdowns-deadlier-than-pandemic-itself/
 
take COVID out of it and just look at deaths regardless of cause - huge increase in 2020 based on yearly averages

EhJe8qUXsAA-yqk

How many of the increased number can be attributed to the shutdown rather than the actual virus? Suicides, people not going in for treatment, overdoses, people in nursing homes dying due to isolation and failure to thrive. The shutdown is going to kill more than the virus and probably already has.
 
Many lives ruined and shortened by this monstrosity of an overreaction.

https://www.revolver.news/2020/08/study-covid-19-lockdowns-deadlier-than-pandemic-itself/


"Revolver News set out to commission a study to do precisely that: to finally quantify the net damage of the lockdowns in terms of a metric known as “life-years.” "

interesting stuff ... will you please post the journal where where this study was published?
I tried to search by the authors but ran into this roadblock

Revolver News is very proud to present a rigorous study on such an important topic ... the authors have chosen for the time being to represent themselves pseudonymously.
 
take COVID out of it and just look at deaths regardless of cause - huge increase in 2020 based on yearly averages

EhJe8qUXsAA-yqk
That rate has slowed over the last several weeks. Its very plausible that a large portion of those excess deaths are people that likely would have died later this year or next year anyway. The average age of death from/with covid is the same as our average life expectancy, so statistically it is irrelevant by that metric.
 
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