Satterfield: A Look Inside the Numbers - Turnovers

[TampaBaySkers]

A Satterfield coached team averages (mean) 98th ranking in turnovers per game.

Here are 2024 probabilities for a Satterfield coached offense (turnover team rank)

Turnovers per game - Team Rank
98th or worse - 50% probability
63rd - 97th - 34%
28th - 62nd - 13.5%
27th or better - 2.5%

 

[nostromo78]

Run this again, but instead of using Satts stats over a 5 year span, run it on NU football over the last 20.

 

[dinglefritz]

A Satterfield coached team averages (mean) 98th ranking in turnovers per game.

Here are 2024 probabilities for a Satterfield coached offense (turnover team rank)

Turnovers per game - Team Rank
98th or worse - 50% probability
63rd - 97th - 34%
28th - 62nd - 13.5%
27th or better - 2.5%

Now run Spencer Rattler and Jeff Sims. Rattler was benched at OU because of how many times he turned the ball over.

 

[c3o]

I’ll be very surprised if we make a bowl next year. This program is just flat out bad with many, including myself, living in denial thinking we will be a decent team any time soon

 

[dinglefritz]

I’ll be very surprised if we make a bowl next year. This program is just flat out bad with many, including myself, living in denial thinking we will be a decent team any time soon

Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Use whatever excuses you need to make you feel good.. I’m just sharing the statistical probabilities for Satt lead offenses

 

[Danimal4NU]

When there isn't hope there is always excuses to fall back on.

 

[Spectrumalaska]

Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.

While it was not with Satterfield, we had Amart for 4 years, and it was like a brand new qb every year.

Some just do not have what is necessary regardless the experience in system. In this instance I believe Satterfield is the weak link in the chain of improvement.

 

[RedMyMind]

When there isn't hope there is always excuses to fall back on.

what was the reason nebraska turned the ball over 34 times in 2013?

 

[Danimal4NU]

what was the reason nebraska turned the ball over 34 times in 2013?

I'm sure they had plenty of excuses back then too.

 

[RedMyMind]

I'm sure they had plenty of excuses back then too.

labeling reasons as excuses is the lazy way out

 

[Landomatic]

labeling reasons as excuses is the lazy way out

I think you got that backward.

 

[dinglefritz]

While it was not with Satterfield, we had Amart for 4 years, and it was like a brand new qb every year.

Some just do not have what is necessary regardless the experience in system. In this instance I believe Satterfield is the weak link in the chain of improvement.

Might be.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Now run Spencer Rattler and Jeff Sims. Rattler was benched at OU because of how many times he turned the ball over.

Both got worse under Satt. Probably not a comparison you want to use.

 

[huskerfan1414]

Now run Spencer Rattler and Jeff Sims. Rattler was benched at OU because of how many times he turned the ball over.

Rattler had less turnovers this year than previously. If I am not mistaken, SC was better overall in turnovers this year than last.

 

[RedMyMind]

I think you got that backward.

not at all. Looking at the numbers and not trying to understand why is the lazy way.

 

[dinglefritz]

Use whatever excuses you need to make you feel good.. I’m just sharing the statistical probabilities for Satt lead offenses

And where did you find those probabilities?

 

[dinglefritz]

Both got worse under Satt. Probably not a comparison you want to use.

New offense for both and MUCH less talent around Rattler at USC. Statistics are wonderful if there aren’t multiple other variables to deal with. Your statistical analysis is not a provable hypothesis.

 

[king_kong_]

He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.

which narrative?

that satt leads inept, turnover prone offenses?

or that purdy has played college football for 4 years with nary a win to show for it?

I know I know - tons of OCs all of a sudden produce at levels they've never produced at in 10 years and there is a tremendously long list of good QBs who didn't win a single game until their 5th year in school

 

[c3o]

Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.

You either have it or you don’t. And I don’t pay a guy to make excuses

 

[RedMyMind]

You either have it or you don’t. And I don’t pay a guy to make excuses

You don't pay anyone

 

[king_kong_]

what was the reason nebraska turned the ball over 34 times in 2013?

why do you think with regards to 2013?

any working theories you'd like to share about last year?

any ideas why all these turnovers follow satterfield around?

curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

And where did you find those probabilities?

I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule

 

[dinglefritz]

I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule

The problem of course is that your model assumes all other surrounding variables are equal which of course is not true.

 

[RedMyMind]

why do you think with regards to 2013?

any working theories you'd like to share about last year?

any ideas why all these turnovers follow satterfield around?

curious to hear your thoughts.

Those are good questions worth inspecting. The problem is people like you can't or won't because that would take effort.

Who needs to pay analysts when we have message board people saying to just call the plays that succeed?

 

[king_kong_]

Those are good questions worth inspecting. The problem is people like you can't or won't because that would take effort.

Who needs to pay analysts when we have message board people saying to just call the plays that succeed?

then why doesn't an intelligent person like you do it?

 

[RedMyMind]

then why doesn't an intelligent person like you do it?

I'm not the one making claims like you every day when you don't have the information or ability to analyze it.

I'm a wait and see approach, the logical approach.

 

[nostromo78]

Here is a better graph. Seems to me this is an ongoing issue that no one has solved.

image upload

 

[king_kong_]

I'm not the one making claims like you every day when you don't have the information or ability to analyze it.

I'm a wait and see approach, the logical approach.

every time it rains, I get wet

every time satt calls plays, the team is at the top of the conference turnover standings

you're right. very illogical to draw straight lines. we'll see how they look in 2025.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

The problem of course is that your model assumes all other surrounding variables are equal which of course is not true.

Yes, unfortunately the model does assume variables such as dumbass play calling will remain

 

[king_kong_]

Here is a better graph. Seems to me this is an ongoing issue that no one has solved.

image upload

how do the other adidas teams stack up?

maybe the balls are just too hard to hang on to?

 

[king_kong_]

Yes, unfortunately the model does assume variables such as dumbass play calling will remain

that's a constant.

the variables are the players the dumbass plays are called for and the opponents the dumbass playcaller is calling them against.

I do find it quite telling that @dinglefritz stood up for satt until his guy got the nod, then he wasn't too fond of the play calling, either.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Here is a better graph. Seems to me this is an ongoing issue that no one has solved.

image upload

Nah.. I don’t like turnover margin when discussing OC’s problems. White’s defense can have a lot of takeaways and skew the results

 

[TampaBaySkers]

that's a constant.

the variables are the players the dumbass plays are called for and the opponents the dumbass playcaller is calling them against.

I do find it quite telling that @dinglefritz stood up for satt until his guy got the nod, then he wasn't too fond of the play calling, either.

Ah yes. Wishful thinking on my part to think Satt’s play calling can change

 

[c3o]

You don't pay anyone

you must not know a whole lot about me then

 

[RedMyMind]

every time it rains, I get wet

every time satt calls plays, the team is at the top of the conference turnover standings

you're right. very illogical to draw straight lines. we'll see how they look in 2025.

Here's something even you can get.

Nebraska has been a turnover machine the past 20 years. What position on the field was responsible for the majority of these turnovers?

This just may help you find the common denominator.

 

[RedMyMind]

you must not know a whole lot about me then

who do you pay?

 

[c3o]

who do you pay?

Plenty. But we both know I was posting a generality and not that I was paying a coach. You don’t pay someone to make excuses, ever. You pay for results

 

[Walleye79]

I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule

Is that you Scope?

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Is that you Scope?

I’m not a glory hole fan