Poll: What will NU's regular season record be in 2018?

[Larry Hagman's Liver]

With the 5.5 over/under release and talk of tempering or heightening expectations, I'm curious what our corner of Husker Nation expects. I couldn't list every possible record due to poll restrictions so I lumped a few together at the top and bottom.

With the need to infuse more talent, a full-fledged culture/scheme/S&C reboot underway, a new starting QB and a meat grinder of a schedule, the possibility of a 12-0 or 11-1 season is extremely improbable. But with six very winnable games at home, the chances of going 2-10, 1-11 or 0-12 would appear equally remote if not more so. So those possibilities are combined respectively.

My expectation has always been to make a bowl game, but I think the 5.5 o/u is low. My vote is 7-5 with wins against Akron, Colorado, Troy, Purdue, @Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois. If we lose to Northwestern (second consecutive road game, Wiscy hangover), I could see NU upsetting MSU and/or Iowa at the end of the year if we stay healthy.

Unlike recent years, I believe we'll be an exponentially better team by the last month of the season. Unfortunately the schedule also ramps up at that time and we'll take our lumps if we're not able to cobble together greater depth. I'll stick with 7-5 as my prediction and hope for 8-4 or better. If we simply go bowling again at 6-6, I would consider it a passing grade for year one.

What say you?

09/01 Akron
09/08 Colorado
09/15 Troy
09/22 @ Michigan
09/29 Purdue
10/06 @ Wisconsin
10/13 @ Northwestern
10/20 Minnesota
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St.
11/10 Illinois
11/17 Michigan St.
11/23 @ Iowa

 

[DudznSudz]

Here's how I think it will shake out:


09/01 Akron - W
09/08 Colorado - W
09/15 Troy - W
09/22 @ Michigan - L
09/29 Purdue - W
10/06 @ Wisconsin - L
10/13 @ Northwestern - W
10/20 Minnesota - W
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St. - L
11/10 Illinois - W
11/17 Michigan St. - W
11/23 @ Iowa - W

 

[chicolby]

Colorado was 5-7 last year and had some close losses to respectable competition. That game is definitely a toss-up. I'll tell you, a large majority of fans thought last year's win total by Vegas was way too low and lost some hard-earned cash betting the over (including me).

Vegas can miss on these things, but for teams with big fan bases, they dare you to take the over. And I'll tell you, Vegas is not dumb when it comes to the elements that go into their prediction models.

 

[chicolby]

Here's how I think it will shake out:


09/01 Akron - W
09/08 Colorado - W
09/15 Troy - W
09/22 @ Michigan - L
09/29 Purdue - W
10/06 @ Wisconsin - L
10/13 @ Northwestern - W
10/20 Minnesota - W
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St. - L
11/10 Illinois - W
11/17 Michigan St. - W
11/23 @ Iowa - W

I hope you're right. Purdue will be no slouch. Colorado is no push-over. Northwestern on the road after a Wisconsin game on the road. Michigan State will be a top 20 team next year. Iowa on the road are all games that could easily flip the other way.

Maybe I'm still stung by the horrible season last year, but I'm not willing to put money down on a team that for all intents and purposes quit just a year ago.

 

[DudznSudz]

Colorado was 5-7 last year and had some close losses to respectable competition. That game is definitely a toss-up. I'll tell you, a large majority of fans thought last year's win total by Vegas was way too low and lost some hard-earned cash betting the over (including me).

Vegas can miss on these things, but for teams with big fan bases, they dare you to take the over. And I'll tell you, Vegas is not dumb when it comes to the elements that go into their prediction models.

You are 100% right, but I would point out one thing to help clarify what you're saying: Vegas odds-makers, by the nature of their jobs, have to heavily weigh unknown as a negative. If you don't know, speculating in a positive way is at best foolish, at worst, catastrophic.

Now we, as a fan base, may be biased, but we also know Frost just won the coach of the year award, and he turned Oregon's offense into a buzzsaw and turned around a pretty crappy football team at UCF into being undefeated in 2 years.

Now, if I were a Vegas institution, it would be very hard for me to factor those facts into my model, because they are too far removed from the Nebraska currently being assessed in terms of odds; yeah, Frost did all of that, but he didn't do it at Nebraska and he did it with different players (albeit with the same exact coaches). The Vegas model, just to be conservative and careful, might simply be illustrating "New coach, "good" coach, tough ass schedule, new scheme." The end. This is why some programs who get a new coach beat the model pretty soundly (like Michigan 2 years ago), but that in so doing they kind of "surprise" everyone.

We don't know. That's the whole point. I tend to think that a "safe" bet would be 6-6, but I can easily see us exceeding that. It just kind of depends on how things start fitting together, and honestly, a lot depends on how our competition fares as well.

 

[newAD]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm just hoping for 6-6 (win the first 6 home games) and anything above that is a bonus.

I'm worried about game 1 Troy. They beat LSU last year, oh and Arkansas State (you know the team Nebraska nearly blew it against).

 

[scarletred]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again with practically the most difficult schedule in school history, I want to have 6 wins by the time we play @Iowa on Black Friday.

 

[c3ntral08]

People aren't taking into account just how bad Riley and co were. THAT WAS THE WORST STAFF IN THE NATION and we still should have won 5 games (NW game where we blew our d*cks off). You're telling me getting rid of the worst staff in the nation and putting into place arguably the best staff in the nation (yes, the schedule is tougher) where players are actually TRYING and an offense that will have defenses grasping for air does't at least equal 2 more wins?? I just don't see it. You know, maybe some things go our way now.. maybe all those 50/50 fumbles and close calls go Nebraskas way instead for the other team. No way we win only 5. We shouldn't lose a single home game. Memorial Stadium will be rocking every game now that Frost is back. Teams are going to fear walking into Lincoln like they once did.

 

[scarletred]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm just hoping for 6-6 (win the first 6 home games) and anything above that is a bonus.

I'm worried about game 1 Troy. They beat LSU last year, oh and Arkansas State (you know the team Nebraska nearly blew it against).

We don’t play Troy till after Colorado..
But they worry me too since they won in Baton Rouge last year, but Frost will have their attention because of that fact.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Colorado was 5 - 7 last year.
ranked 48th in total offense, 39th in passing and 74th in rushing.
Lost leading rusher who rushed over 1400 yds.
They have a transfer from Texas Tech, but lost three senior WRs and will have to count on redshirt freshmen for the receiving this year. The only returning receiver is Coach McIntyre's son Jay.
Then you get to the offensive line. They where they lost 3 of 5
They ranked 122nd in sacks allowed, Colorado ranked 102nd in the nation in yds per attempt rushing,

On Defense they lost 5 players, including their leading sack specialist and best cornerback, from the 110th ranked defense in 2017.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

We don’t play Troy till after Colorado..
But they worry me too since they won in Baton Rouge last year, but Frost will have their attention because of that fact.

Troy lost a ton of players including their QB. Heck even ESPN FPI only gives them a 12% chance to win the game.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm just hoping for 6-6 (win the first 6 home games) and anything above that is a bonus.

I'm worried about game 1 Troy. They beat LSU last year, oh and Arkansas State (you know the team Nebraska nearly blew it against).

Troy isn't game 1. Akron is game 1.

 

[scarletred]

Troy lost a ton of players including their QB. Heck even ESPN FPI only gives them a 12% chance to win the game.

SF won’t take them lightly after beating LSU one way or the other is my point.

 

[c3ntral08]

Colorado was 5 - 7 last year.
ranked 48th in total offense, 39th in passing and 74th in rushing.
Lost leading rusher who rushed over 1400 yds.
They have a transfer from Texas Tech, but lost three senior WRs and will have to count on redshirt freshmen for the receiving this year. The only returning receiver is Coach McIntyre's son Jay.
Then you get to the offensive line. They where they lost 3 of 5
They ranked 122nd in sacks allowed, Colorado ranked 102nd in the nation in yds per attempt rushing,

On Defense they lost 5 players, including their leading sack specialist and best cornerback, from the 110th ranked defense in 2017.

This. I'm more worried about Purdue and Troy than I am CU

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

SF won’t take them lightly after beating LSU one way or the other is my point.

uh ok. So now fans taking teams lightly equates to the coach taking them lightly. I would also bet Frost doesn't expect to finish the season 5-7 or 6-6 either like some of you all.

I hope we don't ever have to play App St, they beat Michigan 1 time in Ann Arbor.

 

[scarletred]

uh ok. So now fans taking teams lightly equates to the coach taking them lightly. I would also bet Frost doesn't expect to finish the season 5-7 or 6-6 either like some of you all.

I hope we don't ever have to play App St, they beat Michigan 1 time in Ann Arbor.

You should have informed LSU of this last year.

Never said Frost was going to take them lightly, he won’t let his team take them lightly.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

People aren't taking into account just how bad Riley and co were. THAT WAS THE WORST STAFF IN THE NATION and we still should have won 5 games (NW game where we blew our d*cks off). You're telling me getting rid of the worst staff in the nation and putting into place arguably the best staff in the nation (yes, the schedule is tougher) where players are actually TRYING and an offense that will have defenses grasping for air does't at least equal 2 more wins?? I just don't see it. You know, maybe some things go our way now.. maybe all those 50/50 fumbles and close calls go Nebraskas way instead for the other team. No way we win only 5. We shouldn't lose a single home game. Memorial Stadium will be rocking every game now that Frost is back. Teams are going to fear walking into Lincoln like they once did.

Thank you-this is what I have been saying for awhile. We are supposed to have a coaching staff that is a major upgrade from the previous one and with a new attitude. That alone should equal a couple of more wins at least. People need to show the confidence they say they have in this coaching staff.

 

[jlb321]

i see very few people predicting less than 6 wins
I wouldn't consider setting the bar at 6 to be showing a lot of confidence

6 wins probably equates to a pretty average coaching performance in year one ... suspect lots of staffs could squeeze out 6 wins

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

You should have informed LSU of this last year.

Never said Frost was going to take them lightly, he won’t let his team take them lightly.

Last year was last year. Nebraska isn't LSU and Troy isn't the same team as a year ago.

Just a little tip for you, me or any fan counting the Troy game as a win in May, will have zero affect on the actual outcome of the game.

 

[bshirt73]

Well, as I see it it's a push.

A. A massively better coaching staff (to say the very, very least).

B. A vicious schedule.

Somewhere between 6 to 8 wins sounds right to me. "A" trumps "B". That's two to four games better than last year's disaster even with a far more difficult schedule.

 

[otismotis08]

Drinking today. 8-4 says the Kool-Aid.

 

[DudznSudz]

Thank you-this is what I have been saying for awhile. We are supposed to have a coaching staff that is a major upgrade from the previous one and with a new attitude. That alone should equal a couple of more wins at least. People need to show the confidence they say they have in this coaching staff.

I completely agree. I feel really silly about old posts of mine where I was trying very, very hard to be positive, but we just did not have the right staff in place before, we really didn't.

Further, I would say that of my original post, both Michigan and Wisconsin are tough but winnable games for a staff like this. And its also entirely possible that Minnesota or Purdue jumps up and steals a win. I think 6-6 is a very good, careful prediction, but that 7-5, 8-4, or 9-3 is entirely possible also if we happen to have a lot of success getting this new system to operate well with the players. That is the level of quality we have in place with this staff now.

Again, we're kind of focusing a lot on 2018, mostly because we probably all just want to watch some Nebraska football, but I am saving a lot of my hope for the 2019 season, when this team should be absolutely lethal.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

09/01 Akron - W
09/08 Colorado - W
09/15 Troy - W
09/22 @ Michigan - L
09/29 Purdue - W
10/06 @ Wisconsin - L
10/13 @ Northwestern - W
10/20 Minnesota - W
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St. - L
11/10 Illinois - W
11/17 Michigan St. - W
11/23 @ Iowa - L

I'll go 8-4 with an outside shot at 9-3. That win could come at Michigan or at Iowa.

 

[oldjar07]

9-3. I was at 10-2 but saw some concerning things in the spring game that made me back off that prediction. I think we're going to struggle early and maybe lose to a team we shouldn't but I think we'll get better every week and by the end of the year end up beating a team nobody thought we'd knock off.

 

[huskerfan1414]

Thank you-this is what I have been saying for awhile. We are supposed to have a coaching staff that is a major upgrade from the previous one and with a new attitude. That alone should equal a couple of more wins at least. People need to show the confidence they say they have in this coaching staff.

You had confidence in Riley, what was your prediction year 1-3?

And yes 6 is the floor for me.
Not my prediction.
My floor.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

You had confidence in Riley, what was your prediction year 1-3?

And yes 6 is the floor for me.
Not my prediction.
My floor.

I guess I would say 6 is my absolute floor, but I'm saying 7 and wouldn't be surprised to see more. I predicted at least 9 wins every year for Riley-so I am giving a good amount of leeway to Frost that I did not give for Riley.

 

[huskerfan1414]

I guess I would say 6 is my absolute floor, but I'm saying 7 and wouldn't be surprised to see more. I predicted at least 9 wins every year for Riley-so I am giving a good amount of leeway to Frost that I did not give for Riley.

And if we win 5?

 

[Truehuskerfan]

And if we win 5?

It would be a disappointment. I'm certainly not going to call for anybody to be fired-there's zero chance of it happening no matter what, even if we went winless, and I think he needs to be given 4 years minimum.

 

[kaz36]

I think we have 8 winnable games on the schedule. I will be disappointed with less than 8.

 

[HuskerLLM]

Here's how I think it will shake out:


09/01 Akron - W
09/08 Colorado - W
09/15 Troy - W
09/22 @ Michigan - L
09/29 Purdue - W
10/06 @ Wisconsin - L
10/13 @ Northwestern - W
10/20 Minnesota - W
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St. - L
11/10 Illinois - W
11/17 Michigan St. - W
11/23 @ Iowa - W

I could get in board with this, but the MSU and Iowa games come down to how healthy we are still the end of the year IMO so in my mind I'd go toss up for that reason alone.

 

[Hoosker Du]

09/01 Akron - W
09/08 Colorado - W
09/15 Troy - W
09/22 @ Michigan - L
09/29 Purdue - W
10/06 @ Wisconsin - L
10/13 @ Northwestern - W
10/20 Minnesota - W
10/27 BYE
11/03 @ Ohio St. - L
11/10 Illinois - W
11/17 Michigan St. - W
11/23 @ Iowa - L

I'll go 8-4 with an outside shot at 9-3. That win could come at Michigan or at Iowa.

This is exactly what I predicted in an earlier thread. The Michigan State game to me would be the closest to a toss up.

I don't think some people are taking into account how these tremendous changes in body composition will impact this team. We have multiple Top 25 recruiting classes that will have been in a much better strength and conditioning program for 7 1/2 months when we play our first game next year. Not only are we going to be faster on the field, because they'll weigh the same or more, with more muscle and less fat, but dramatically stronger. And our depth is going to be that much more ready to play, because all of them have been getting reps, and will continue to get reps.