I'll let the genius redli answer, then I'll give you my take on that question, if you're interested.
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OT: Why is Warren Buffet always ahead of the game?
- Thread starter itseasyas1-2-3
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I'll be waiting for your response. You and I see eye to eye on this subject. Gave me information on k bars. I never heard of them until you posted about them. I have always tried to keep my net wealth to 9% gold and silver but I have US coins not k bars. So thanks for that!
Let me ask my nephew, he was a cypherpunk and worked on Bitgold with Nick Szabo. He still has David Chaum on snap. He helped me set up my solar bit farm in the Nevada desert and he'll have the answer. Be right back!
My nephew said: Oh for sure. Sometimes it'll go up, sometimes down. Sometimes it'll go up a lot, sometimes down a lot. There will be a halving in 2028, maybe that'll make the price go up. If you buy at the right time, you'll make money.
My dad’s VA loan was 2% if I remember right back in the 60s.
I'll answer the question about the karatbars, but I'm waiting for redli to give his thoughts on BTC before I post my thoughts on it. Also, as far as the silver coins, are you talking Eagles, Rounds or pre-1964 junk silver? I like and own everyone of them.
I love karatbars. I have never had to use any yet, but I think it will be awesome to use them should that time arise. As I said, they are kind of like a kit kat chocolate bar. You just snap off a gram or two and pay for whatever you're buying. I haven't purchased any for several months now, but I do know they have a fairly high premium.
A karatbar has 50 grams of gold. I'll assume you know a 1 oz gold coin is 31 grams, so a karatbar is about 1.6 ounces total. For example, say gold is $ 2,650.00 an ounce, so 1.6 oz would be about $ 4,240.00, not including the spot. It could be 200.00-300.00, but I don't know since I haven't purchased any lately.
Just divide the 4,240.00 by 50 and you know how much each portion is worth, i.e. (4,240.00 divided by 50 = 84.80). I got that $4,240 by taking the 1 ounce price of gold at 2,650 X 1.6 ounces. So when I was buying a karatbar, I was actually buying 1.6 ounces of gold.
I've never been bothered by the daily/weekly price of gold or silver. Like everything else there will be rises and falls. The lowering of the silver price today was expected with the DJT win.
I imagine the large commercial banks that have huge silver shorts took a shot today to buy large and try to mitigate some of their impending losses.
NO doubt in my mind, the price will bounce right back up in a day or so. Without even going to the coin shop tomorrow, but I will go to the local pawn shop, and if they have silver, and the price is reasonable, I will likely buy all of it. And what I don't buy, my wife or daughter will. It makes no difference because it all remains in our family unit.
I can understand why some folks, in fact, many folks are not into gold or silver. It's all good, one day, they will realize that they have have misjudged the situation.
As the commercial banks were buying large today, so were China and India, so the silver reserve at the LBMA and the CONEX likely took a beating today on deliverable silver. That bill for all those silver shorts is going to becoming due before long.
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Right on. I buy eagles and 10th oz gold coins. Nebraska has no tax with precious metal purchases under ten grand. I don't think I'll see the need for k bars but maybe my children will and they won't have to buy them because I'll die in a state with no inheritance tax, I won't be staying in Nebraska if that tax stays on.
Death and inheritance taxes can kiss my grits, I already paid taxes on that money.
The reason I mentioned pre-1964 junk silver is because of their utility in making small purchases.
Anytime I can buy junk silver for about 22.5 X's face amount, it's a fair price.
Good luck. Eagles and constitution coinage is best since it's the coin of the realm.
I have some old siver certificates in my safe for laughs. I always wanted to walk into a bank and tell them I'd like to exchange these for silver now. haha
Tell your nephew about a year from now plan for the party. He'll know what I'm saying.
"If you buy at the right time, you'll make money." What a concept.
Read an article this morning that put things in perspective in regards to Brk's cash on hand. Warren could buy Target, Nike, and Starbucks all at the same time right now. That is wild.
Or he could house every homeless person and feed every hungry person in the state.
And he could leave more to his kids, he could give to NIL, he could not be a total hose-hound.
How dare you disrespect my nephew. He was sitting on Satoshi's lap in 2008. You'd be in a homeless shelter if it wasn't for him.
While not sexy - if I could get a 10 year CD at that rate I would dump a huge chunk of my savings into that action.
First of all, the buy at the right time and you can make money comment is stupid, it applies to anything and everything in life. I got news for you chump, I had my home paid off in 1991, long before Satoshi's name was ever in existence.
I can just tell by your lack of knowledge in your answers, you don't know a fvcking thing. You ever want to talk economics at higher than a 5th grade level, just let me know.
No wonder I had your ass on Ignore.
With the banking industry in it's current state, you like to live dangerously RBigred.
I paid all my homes off in 1990, so I beat you. And Chris Tarbell taught my grandson how to take coins and tokens out of peoples wallets. Even cold storage. That's how we made our fortune.
Who knows. We could be in a 40 year cycle of increasing interest rates. I’d imagine most people would buy CDs with high rates than risking it in the s&p
Or he could keep funding Bill Gate’s pedo farms
That was before my time (I was born in '85), and this may sound like a stupid question, but with CD rates like that, why didn't people just rent and throw their extra money into a CD?
I know the CD $ would've been tied up, but still, getting 11% while NOT paying 13%-19% on a home seems like a good move.
I'm not sure what home interest rates were like in the 60s and 70s so maybe 13%-19% still wasn't a bad deal at the time?
Are you confident in our banking system today? We are a debtor nation and the national debt has soared by trillions of dollars over the past 3 years. There’s a reason that large institutional investors have abandoned bank stocks. Were in scary times with the ridiculous spending we’ve done.
Buying a home at a 19% rate was a horrible deal but there weren’t any livable homes available to rent in the town we were moving to.
First of all, that's not a stupid question. The economy was soooooo much different in the 70's and 80's than it is now. Let me give you just an example of how borrowing money used to work then.
Prior to Reagan in 1980, it wasn't a terrible thing to borrow money. At the time, 100% of any money you borrowed was tax deductible. So if you borrowed money from a bank, finance company, etc, you could write that off on your taxes. So, really the rate you were paying then, wasn't really the rate.
THEN, Reagan and his "team" began to take that away. Without looking, it was something like year 1 you could deduct 80%, then year 2 it was 60%, then year 3 it was 40%, and these may not be totally accurate but I think within about 3-4 years that interest deduction on consumer loans vanished, so you were paying real money to borrow then.
To add insult to injury, they also took away what was called Income Averaging. When that was in place, over a 4 year period you could actually "average" your income and really reduce your tax liability at the end of the year. I'll give you an example that I think we all will understand.
Say you're a college kid who graduates and gets a lower paying first job that pays 40,000 a year. Then in year two you get a raise to 45K, then you make management and your income goes up to 60K a year, and in the following year you advanced and make 75K.
Beginning in that 4th year of making 75K, you could average your last 4 years income, 40K/45K/60K/75K which totals 220,000 divided by 4 = 55K. So, in the year you made 75K you only paid at the 55K tax bracket, and you still got your interest paid deduction. The tax code was a lot more friendly for the average consumer.
I've never purchased or even considered buying CD's, and definitely would not be buying any now given what I know about finances and the state of the banking industry. You purchase a 3-6 month CD in this environment, the bank may as well be handing you a stick of dynamite with a slow burning fuse already lit.
Not only that, but DJT is absolutely a borrow and spend guy, has been his entire professional career, he believes in debt. I think I heard he will be lobbying for about 7Trillion dollar increase in the deficit at first opportunity. Hell, at current rate, the USA will be paying 100% of income tax revenue by 2030, and of course, by then, unless the thing blows up, that deficit will exceed 40 Trillion. We are already a bankrupt and insolvent nation.
People are probably not aware the Federal Reserve cancelled the (BTFP), Bank Transfer Fund Program that was extended on March 11, 2024 but ENDED yesterday, the day after the election. What that means is money that was available to banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve ended. In addition, the reverse repo market is on fumes. So when banks get in trouble, they are gonna have not choice but to start unloading assets such as commercial loans, and banks will take a monstrous beating.
Their commercial properties that were purchased with low interest loans are coming due with interest rates having spiked, so they are gonna get it handed to them. When the real estate crisis happened in 2008, we all know it was bad, but today's commercial property exposure is 7 X's highter than it was in 2008. Something is gonna have to give, because that money owed doesn't just go away to money heaven, it will be someone's theoretical asset turned into a real financial liability. With all the derivatives, which are all tied to the US Dollar, when this thing eventually unwinds, it's gonna be global.
Not to mention, the FDIC has only 1.17% of the money needed to protect bank customers. That's why the bank of Lindsay, Oklahoma which failed a month or so ago, has a boatload of customers who are only getting 50% of the money they had in the bank. There are not gonna be bailouts, there will be bail-ins.
Most of the really smart people believe one of the huge commercial banks is gonna be a sacrificial lamb in the next serious collapse. Most believe it will be be Bank of America. Wonder why Buffett lost interest in that institution? If not BOA, it could be Wells-Fargo.
Nobody knows the timing on this, it could be today, tomorrow, next month or 6 months from now.
It makes no difference who's in the White House, this thing is beyond saving. It is possible they can extend this problem until after January 20th to have it land in the lap of DJT so the media can blame it on one person, when it's been the last several CIC who began this financial issue. Each one making it worse that their predecessor.
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Kids, this is why you respect your elders.
So if you wouldn't put in extra cash into CD's, but wanted some in some vehicle that tries to at least keep up with inflation while also being accessible to some reasonable extent in case of emergency that isn't systemic, what would you go with?
I was asking my dad the other day what the debt was in the 90's. He told me it was about 1T in 1991.
2008 it was 5T.
Today it's about 35T
So from 1991 to 2008 it went up about 5x. - 17 years.
From 2008 to 2024 it went up about 7x. - 16 years.
So once could postulate that in 15 years around 2039 we could be looking at 315T US debt.
First of all, I would never suggest to anyone what THEY should do, I only post what I do. I don't know anyone's financial position, their level of risk they take, and its none of my business either.
Like I said, I'm gonna be 71 years old next month, so I look at things that fit my needs and protect what my wife and I already have. I'm never concerned with making more money, or finding investment vehicles to advance my financial position, I feel I have already done that. I'm looking at things as a 70 year old man and I assume you're much younger, so our outlooks have to by necessarily be different.
So I really won't recommend anything because you know what I'm going to say. If you want the opinion of someone I've had discussions in private with, someone I know is REALLY smart, you should ask that question of board member Streamer 15.
I'm not trying to cop out here, but I just do NOT believe in the stock marker and my meager hold of 3,000 shares of a junior gold mining stock attests to that. For crying out load, 40% of the companies in the S & P 500 are zombie companies that can't even pay the interest on the money they borrowed, let alone make a profit.
At a point in the future, just as the good Lord has said, "All that is hidden will be revealed."
We are living in the age of betrayal and deception.
If you want to do, you're a big boy, and hope it works out for you and your kids. And I mean that, we can be in a pissing contest, doesn't mean I want anyone to fail.
I don't guarantee shit.
I'm giving opinions based upon the here and now. Instead of making your sophomoric quips, tell us, educate us on how things really are. I suspect you can't do that, can you?
Anyone can maintain a normalcy bias as if things are always gonna be the same. It takes balls, and a lot of fuvking knowledge to put things out in the open like I do, because I know people are gonna give me shit about stuff they don't understand.
If anything I say benefits someone, then it's worth it.
I'm very happy to read and respond to any post you have on concrete ideas you have. Fire away.
I took half of my on-hand cash and put into my Vanguard Brokerage account settlement fund (VMFXX). It pays better than CD (currently 4.73%) and has no term commitment. If you pull out in the middle of the month before the dividends are paid at months end you will still get a prorated dividend payment.
Not giving financial advice but it’s something I’m doing to earn something on my “emergency fund”.
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