I put Nebraska's odds at getting in right now at about 10% and we're looking at a play-in game at best. IMO, for that happen, we need some help this weekend. Here are some games and conferences to watch:
Kansas State. Decent resume but an RPI of 62. They play TCU in the first round. A loss would really hurt their chances. A win and they're safely in.
Saint Mary's Interesting team. They are 28-5 with some decent wins but also a couple of bad losses. Just lost in the semi-final of the WCC tournament. They are done for the season.
Providence Another interesting team. Beat both Villanova and Xavier but also have three very bad losses. They play Creighton on Thursday and yes, we very much need Creighton to beat them. A loss would put them at 19-13. A win gets them safely in IMO.
Baylor They are 17-13 and play West Virginia this week. A loss and I think they are out. They are buoyed by the RPI's perception that the Big 12 is very strong. Should WVU beat them, I think we can make an easy case for us to be ahead of them.
Texas That win against West Virginia saved their chances. Still - they are 18-13 and unless they win the Big 12 tournament they will finish with 14 losses. They have several good wins and all of their losses are to RPI top 100 teams. They play Iowa State tomorrow - root hard for the Cyclones.
USC 21-10 with an RPI of 35. Typically that would mean they are pretty safe. But their good wins are really pretty meh and they have that terrible loss at home to Princeton. They play the winner of Washington and Oregon State on Thursday. Hope they lose that one.
UCLA I think they are probably in. 20-10 with an RPI of 39 and several good wins including @USC this past weekend only one bad loss. They play the winner of Cal and Stanford Thursday. Even with a loss, it might be hard to justify putting Nebraska ahead of them unless that loss is to Cal who is god awful.
Alabama This team shouldn't even be in the conversation. Unless they win the SEC tournament - they will finish with 15 losses. As long as they lose anywhere in the tournament - even if its in triple OT to Auburn in the final, they should be out.
Louisville Another real tough team to compare to Nebraska. They are 19-12 but their worst loss is @NC State who has an RPI of 52. 11 of their 12 losses are to RPI top 50 teams. Their quality wins aren't that eye-catching. They play Florida State tomorrow. If they lose, I think we can argue Nebraska should be ahead of them.
Marquette Really sucks that Creighton shit the bed AGAIN against these guys. That win gave Marquette a lot of hope. They are 18-12 with an RPI of 56. They play DePaul(179) tomorrow. Should DePaul win, I think we slide ahead of them.
Oklahoma State They just beat Kansas again so naturally some bracketologists have them on the bubble. They are 18-13. They have a list of good wins (including @Kansas) and no real bad losses so I get it but their RPI is 87. They play Oklahoma tomorrow. Since it seems unlikely OU will fall out of the tournament, we should root for the Sooners to knock OSU off the bubble.
Notre Dame A joke they are in the conversation. 18-13 with some pretty bad losses. They'll probably pick up another win against hapless Pittsburgh but I should think a loss in the next round or two should knock them out.
Syracuse Our resident Orange-sker has long said they are out. Not sure why. 19-12 in the ACC coming off a win against Clemson. They have a few bad losses balanced by some good wins. They play Wake Forest tonight. A loss and I think they are out.
Boise State 22-7 with an RPI of 41. Their lone good win (in RPI world) is against Loyola-Chicago who some how has an RPI of 28. They have an equally bad loss @Utah State (168). They play the winner of Utah State and Colorado State on Thursday. Honestly, as long as they don't win the Mountain West tournament, they should be out.
Washington 20-11 with an RPI of 58. They have a few very good wins and a lone bad loss against Oregon State(144) . They play Oregon State again on Thursday. A loss would clearly knock them out. They probably need to make the final at the very least to get in. I wouldn't be too worried about them.
Butler Sitting at 19-12 with an RPI of 45. Some good wins though including Villanova but very bad home loss to Georgetown(148). They've lost their last two. They play Seton Hall Thursday. A loss would put their chances in jeopardy. A win and they're in.
Teams to root for in conference tournaments this week:
SEC: Auburn or Tennessee. Several others that probably won't hurt like Kentucky, Florida or Missouri.
Big 12: Kansas, West Virginia, or Texas Tech.
ACC: Virginia, Duke, Clemson, Miami, or North Carolina.
Big East: Xavier or Villanova. Seton Hall or Creighton wouldn't hurt either but I know most on here would rather they die in a fiery plane crash.
Pac 12: Arizona. To a much lesser extent, UCLA since I think they will be in regardless.
American: Cincinnati, Houston, or Wichita State. Literally no one else from this conference.
WCC: Gonzaga plays BYU for the title tonight. Very much root for Gonzaga. BYU isn't getting in without a win tonight.
A-10: Rhode Island or to a lesser extent St. Bonaventure since they are likely safely in. RI has lost their last two. No one else
Mountain West: Nevada. No one else.
Let me know if there's any bubble teams I missed and if there's any conference I didn't list that has a team guaranteed to get an at-large if they don't win their tournament.
Kansas State. Decent resume but an RPI of 62. They play TCU in the first round. A loss would really hurt their chances. A win and they're safely in.
Saint Mary's Interesting team. They are 28-5 with some decent wins but also a couple of bad losses. Just lost in the semi-final of the WCC tournament. They are done for the season.
Providence Another interesting team. Beat both Villanova and Xavier but also have three very bad losses. They play Creighton on Thursday and yes, we very much need Creighton to beat them. A loss would put them at 19-13. A win gets them safely in IMO.
Baylor They are 17-13 and play West Virginia this week. A loss and I think they are out. They are buoyed by the RPI's perception that the Big 12 is very strong. Should WVU beat them, I think we can make an easy case for us to be ahead of them.
Texas That win against West Virginia saved their chances. Still - they are 18-13 and unless they win the Big 12 tournament they will finish with 14 losses. They have several good wins and all of their losses are to RPI top 100 teams. They play Iowa State tomorrow - root hard for the Cyclones.
USC 21-10 with an RPI of 35. Typically that would mean they are pretty safe. But their good wins are really pretty meh and they have that terrible loss at home to Princeton. They play the winner of Washington and Oregon State on Thursday. Hope they lose that one.
UCLA I think they are probably in. 20-10 with an RPI of 39 and several good wins including @USC this past weekend only one bad loss. They play the winner of Cal and Stanford Thursday. Even with a loss, it might be hard to justify putting Nebraska ahead of them unless that loss is to Cal who is god awful.
Alabama This team shouldn't even be in the conversation. Unless they win the SEC tournament - they will finish with 15 losses. As long as they lose anywhere in the tournament - even if its in triple OT to Auburn in the final, they should be out.
Louisville Another real tough team to compare to Nebraska. They are 19-12 but their worst loss is @NC State who has an RPI of 52. 11 of their 12 losses are to RPI top 50 teams. Their quality wins aren't that eye-catching. They play Florida State tomorrow. If they lose, I think we can argue Nebraska should be ahead of them.
Marquette Really sucks that Creighton shit the bed AGAIN against these guys. That win gave Marquette a lot of hope. They are 18-12 with an RPI of 56. They play DePaul(179) tomorrow. Should DePaul win, I think we slide ahead of them.
Oklahoma State They just beat Kansas again so naturally some bracketologists have them on the bubble. They are 18-13. They have a list of good wins (including @Kansas) and no real bad losses so I get it but their RPI is 87. They play Oklahoma tomorrow. Since it seems unlikely OU will fall out of the tournament, we should root for the Sooners to knock OSU off the bubble.
Notre Dame A joke they are in the conversation. 18-13 with some pretty bad losses. They'll probably pick up another win against hapless Pittsburgh but I should think a loss in the next round or two should knock them out.
Syracuse Our resident Orange-sker has long said they are out. Not sure why. 19-12 in the ACC coming off a win against Clemson. They have a few bad losses balanced by some good wins. They play Wake Forest tonight. A loss and I think they are out.
Boise State 22-7 with an RPI of 41. Their lone good win (in RPI world) is against Loyola-Chicago who some how has an RPI of 28. They have an equally bad loss @Utah State (168). They play the winner of Utah State and Colorado State on Thursday. Honestly, as long as they don't win the Mountain West tournament, they should be out.
Washington 20-11 with an RPI of 58. They have a few very good wins and a lone bad loss against Oregon State(144) . They play Oregon State again on Thursday. A loss would clearly knock them out. They probably need to make the final at the very least to get in. I wouldn't be too worried about them.
Butler Sitting at 19-12 with an RPI of 45. Some good wins though including Villanova but very bad home loss to Georgetown(148). They've lost their last two. They play Seton Hall Thursday. A loss would put their chances in jeopardy. A win and they're in.
Teams to root for in conference tournaments this week:
SEC: Auburn or Tennessee. Several others that probably won't hurt like Kentucky, Florida or Missouri.
Big 12: Kansas, West Virginia, or Texas Tech.
ACC: Virginia, Duke, Clemson, Miami, or North Carolina.
Big East: Xavier or Villanova. Seton Hall or Creighton wouldn't hurt either but I know most on here would rather they die in a fiery plane crash.
Pac 12: Arizona. To a much lesser extent, UCLA since I think they will be in regardless.
American: Cincinnati, Houston, or Wichita State. Literally no one else from this conference.
WCC: Gonzaga plays BYU for the title tonight. Very much root for Gonzaga. BYU isn't getting in without a win tonight.
A-10: Rhode Island or to a lesser extent St. Bonaventure since they are likely safely in. RI has lost their last two. No one else
Mountain West: Nevada. No one else.
Let me know if there's any bubble teams I missed and if there's any conference I didn't list that has a team guaranteed to get an at-large if they don't win their tournament.
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