I've seen a lot (especially in midweek threads) that "this is the same team as last year" and sure, there are some issues with the team that has plagued this team that we saw from last year, so I get the comparison.
We also still don't have near the pitching depth we need, no question. We have 2.5 starters and prob 2-3 relievers we like, but outside of that it's a struggle.
For the B1G tournament and the regional, it will be an absolute must that we win the first two, moreso than some other years.
............Overall ......... Q1 ......... Q2 .......... Q3 ................. Q4
2023 33-23-1 ........... 2-7 ........ 6-2 ......... 11-8-1 ............ 14-6
2024 34-19-0 .......... 3-1 ........ 12-11 ........15-6 .............. 4-1
Despite very very similar overall records, there's a pretty significant thing that we avoided from last year. Last year we had 14 Q3 and Q4 losses (and 1 tie). FOURTEEN....and SIX from Q4. Holy smokes. Many of those were midweek losses, so yes we did have a midweek problem, but this year we're losing midweek games to MUCH MUCH better teams. Our OOC SoS this year was in the top 20.
Second, we played 27 Q1 and Q2 games this year, vs only 17 last year. Our record this year is 15-12, last year it was 8-9. Our schedule was much tougher this year and to Bolt's credit it set us up way better.
A small amount of that schedule imbalance was playing an easier B1G schedule last year. IIRC (sorry it's been a minute) we played a few Q3 and even 1 Q4 conference series last year. This year I think we only had 1 or 2 total.
Speaking of scheduling...there's a lot of "schedule tougher because we won't get help with the B1G" posts out there and there's definitely some substance to it.
Unfortunately that's not super simple. As some people who are closer to it have described here...we've reached out to several southern P5 teams for a home/home series, but none have been interested (they can stay south, play garbage OOC teams then get all their RPI from the conference). Proximity schools like KU and KSU have been willing and WSU before the coaching change (we'll see how that is going forward).
So what you have to play is the "what mid major can I count on to be decent" and sometimes that plays out and sometimes it doesn't. 2023 was a year it definitely didn't. We had a couple mid majors on the schedule that were decent teams normally that had an awful year.
The good news is, 2025 should be able to garner more RPI boost from the conference with some better baseball teams joining. If you took the average RPI over the past 15 or so years, here's how the 2025 B1G teams rank:
1) UCLA
2) Maryland
3) Indiana
4) Oregon
5) Illinois
6) Nebraska
7) Michigan
8) USC
So you can see that 3 out of the 4 teams that are joining over time should definitely help our RPI (assuming we play at least some of them). UCLA obviously has a national title in that span too.
Our conference RPI is #4 this year. Last year it was #6. Personally I think from here out we will be the #3 or #4 conference every year. ACC and SEC still reign (and SEC is only getting stronger).
It will be interesting to see how Bolt shapes the OOC schedule with the new teams addaed. My hope is that he continues to schedule with the RPI in mind (not that he necessarily wasn't before, but continues to do so).
Worth mentioning, Nebraska was not picked by any major publication I could find going into 2024 to be in a regional. Not one. Most conference placings were #5-8. Finishing #2 and a solid #2 in a regional is an absolute victory.
We also still don't have near the pitching depth we need, no question. We have 2.5 starters and prob 2-3 relievers we like, but outside of that it's a struggle.
For the B1G tournament and the regional, it will be an absolute must that we win the first two, moreso than some other years.
............Overall ......... Q1 ......... Q2 .......... Q3 ................. Q4
2023 33-23-1 ........... 2-7 ........ 6-2 ......... 11-8-1 ............ 14-6
2024 34-19-0 .......... 3-1 ........ 12-11 ........15-6 .............. 4-1
Despite very very similar overall records, there's a pretty significant thing that we avoided from last year. Last year we had 14 Q3 and Q4 losses (and 1 tie). FOURTEEN....and SIX from Q4. Holy smokes. Many of those were midweek losses, so yes we did have a midweek problem, but this year we're losing midweek games to MUCH MUCH better teams. Our OOC SoS this year was in the top 20.
Second, we played 27 Q1 and Q2 games this year, vs only 17 last year. Our record this year is 15-12, last year it was 8-9. Our schedule was much tougher this year and to Bolt's credit it set us up way better.
A small amount of that schedule imbalance was playing an easier B1G schedule last year. IIRC (sorry it's been a minute) we played a few Q3 and even 1 Q4 conference series last year. This year I think we only had 1 or 2 total.
Speaking of scheduling...there's a lot of "schedule tougher because we won't get help with the B1G" posts out there and there's definitely some substance to it.
Unfortunately that's not super simple. As some people who are closer to it have described here...we've reached out to several southern P5 teams for a home/home series, but none have been interested (they can stay south, play garbage OOC teams then get all their RPI from the conference). Proximity schools like KU and KSU have been willing and WSU before the coaching change (we'll see how that is going forward).
So what you have to play is the "what mid major can I count on to be decent" and sometimes that plays out and sometimes it doesn't. 2023 was a year it definitely didn't. We had a couple mid majors on the schedule that were decent teams normally that had an awful year.
The good news is, 2025 should be able to garner more RPI boost from the conference with some better baseball teams joining. If you took the average RPI over the past 15 or so years, here's how the 2025 B1G teams rank:
1) UCLA
2) Maryland
3) Indiana
4) Oregon
5) Illinois
6) Nebraska
7) Michigan
8) USC
So you can see that 3 out of the 4 teams that are joining over time should definitely help our RPI (assuming we play at least some of them). UCLA obviously has a national title in that span too.
Our conference RPI is #4 this year. Last year it was #6. Personally I think from here out we will be the #3 or #4 conference every year. ACC and SEC still reign (and SEC is only getting stronger).
It will be interesting to see how Bolt shapes the OOC schedule with the new teams addaed. My hope is that he continues to schedule with the RPI in mind (not that he necessarily wasn't before, but continues to do so).
Worth mentioning, Nebraska was not picked by any major publication I could find going into 2024 to be in a regional. Not one. Most conference placings were #5-8. Finishing #2 and a solid #2 in a regional is an absolute victory.
