ESPN Win Probability

[Phillipe]

So your role on this board is to combat any post that says Riley is doing something good here. Got it.

That’s fine that you don’t see the recruiting strategy, I guess... even with the turmoil going on right now, another highly touted 4 star player in Tutt says Nebraska is his favorite after this weekend. The other highly touted players already committed are giving their support to these coaches as well. If Riley remains the coach after this year, this recruiting class is likely going to be the best class since Callahan was here.

The fact that we don’t fill classes is distressing, I will grant that. But if you can’t see the effort and organization to his recruiting process, that’s on you.

No, for fun ( that's what this board is for) I like to question what I think is ridiculous. I am willing to guess that if Riley remains coach here after this year, this recruiting class will be underwhelming. What I see is a huge PR push since Riley was hired focused around recruiting. You know, the one thing that can give fans hope. Even now, as the program is crashing, it's obviously working, just read this board. There is not much more subjective in the world of sports than "effort and organization" in recruiting. Largely depends on the guys reporting it, and we know the guys reporting it love Riley.

The proof is on the field. We are a bottom tier team, less than three years after the AD gave us hope by firing a coach averaging over nine wins per year.

 

[Phillipe]

A discussion with your AD to re-evaluate your contract does not mean you're on the hot seat, especially when that contract was heavily one-sided. Doesn't mean Riley's seat wasn't starting to warm up, but to state as an absolute fact that "Riley was on the hot seat so that's part of the reason why he came to Nebraska" is complete bull.

To state as an absolute fact that he wasn't based on the same discussion is just as preposterous. But nobody seems to argue the fact that we hired a coach 2-13 in his last 15 conference games.

 

[Phillipe]

Because Riley has had only 2 full recruiting classes? Which JUCO QB should Mike have brought in? Doesn't matter, you'd still bitch. At least you tried to be objective your first few posts, now your true colors are showing.

Which true colors? What are you implying?

 

[timnsun]

Which true colors? What are you implying?

The obvious... you are not enamored with the Riley hire and never have been. I don’t think you would support him even if you could (it’s not in your nature), but I can’t state that as a fact. Furthermore, you delight in going after any posters looking for positivity.

Those true colors.

 

[Phillipe]

The obvious... you are not enamored with the Riley hire and never have been. I don’t think you would support him even if you could (it’s not in your nature), but I can’t state that as a fact. Furthermore, you delight in going after any posters looking for positivity.

Those true colors.

You act like I have been somehow hiding the fact that I think Riley is a bad football coach. Yes, it's clear.

I would support a coach I thought could be successful. But, yes, from the day we hired Riley I thought it was a huge mistake based on his resume. It was incredibly stupid in my opinion to hire the OSU staff and expect it to work here. And it hasn't. And the AD got fired for it. Now, we just wait it out until we can get a new coach.

I don't delight in going after positivity. I enjoy challenging those who don't see what is happening right in front of them. Which is what you do, too. It's what message boards or for. I could be wrong, Riley could straighten this out. But I am pretty sure we are staring at a losing season in year three. His second one. That is ridiculous.

 

[Huskercigar]

Updated based on yesterday's results, 4-8/5-7 appears the most likely at this point. Does either save Mike for next year? Can only hope the new AD has a brain to look beyond the record and all the good things being done.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017



Projected win percentage (probability)
Fri, Sept 29 @ Illinois 60.5%
Sat, Oct 7 vs Wisconsin 9.5%
Sat, Oct 14 vs Ohio State 5.9%
Sat, Oct 28 @ Purdue 46.3%
Sat, Nov 4 vs Northwestern 42.2%
Sat, Nov 11 @ Minnesota 27.0%
Sat, Nov 18 @ Penn State 5.0%
Fri, Nov 24 vs Iowa 36.4%

Final record probability
2-10 | 4.61% | (approx 1 in 22)
3-9 | 19.74% | (approx 1 in 5)
4-8 | 32.86% | (approx 1 in 3)
5-7 | 27.40% | (approx 1 in 4)
6-6 | 12.20% | (approx 1 in 8)
7-5 | 2.85% | (approx 1 in 35)
8-4 | 0.325% | (approx 1 in 308)
9-3 | 0.0170% | (approx 1 in 5,894)
10-2 | 0.000326% | (approx 1 in 307,413)


5-7 or better | 42.80% | (approx 3 in 7)
6-6 or better | 15.40% | (approx 2 in 13)
7-5 or better | 3.19% | (approx 3 in 94)

Can I ask you a serious question without trying to be argumentative. What are all these good things being done? And what is the result of these good things. My take is that we have to be great at quite a few things if we are going to see the results we want. Nothing about a losing record is great and its doubtful next year will match this year.

The only thing I point to that seems on the border of great is our recruiting program. Not the recruiting but the plan. It seems to be very good in that we are getting a bunch more recruits in. We aren't necessarily signing a bunch more but it is a little better. Maybe this success is based on our recruiting coordinator rather than MR and we can still keep that guy around.

 

[Huskercigar]

The obvious... you are not enamored with the Riley hire and never have been. I don’t think you would support him even if you could (it’s not in your nature), but I can’t state that as a fact. Furthermore, you delight in going after any posters looking for positivity.

Those true colors.

And you also delight in going after any poster that questions the desire to remain in mediocrity. For as much as you hate people that post negative.......these posters who are frustrated with this hire get just as sick of reading the sunshine as you do the negative. The one difference is while we might be coming off self-righteous because it is unfortunately going the way we thought........you have been using the "I'm a better fan" analogy.

 

[Huskercigar]

I would ask for objectivity, but we both see it in different ways... I see a solid, definitive recruiting strategy in place. I see a coach that can bring in talent to OSU, so he should have an even easier time bringing in talent here. I see players from OSU making NFL rosters and playing at high levels.

All of this speaks to recruiting and development. Now I am talking about when he was hired, not how things are today, which is why I mention hindsight. But even then, his recruiting has improved from year 1 here to where things are at right now...

Again, I already have admitted that the development argument seems to have been faulty. But it was one of the reasons given for why he was hired.

Here is my take on the perceived better recruiting. Part of it is smoke and mirrors. We do have a much better recruiting strategy. There is no reason that has to be given up as I doubt that is the brain child of Mike Riley but probably of Andy Vaughn. There was some early excitement regarding Mike Riley here that had some recruits looking at us. Also Keyshawn Johnson Jr.s personnel relationship helped also. Mike Riley also benefited from all the rule changes in the NCAA that allows paid visits by recruits families. So yes there are some good things.

In spite of all that the actual signing hasn't been that much better. With all these benefits and better strategies it isn't that great. Why is that? Well even though he is a nice guy he isn't a closer. The guy doesn't command respect and doesn't have wow factor in him. I have personally been at events with him and he walks in and its not that big of a deal. People don't flock to him. He always stood in the back of the room talking to SE. Now if he had walked in the room at the same time as Scott Frost the entire room would have gone "wow.....there's Scott Frost".

Now what does that mean? Heck I'm not sure but I believe that we need some type of name of closing capability. Someone that "has it". Scott Frost in his first year had the Number 1 recruiting class in the AAC in both score and average recruit score. This year so far he is number 1 in average but number 4 in overall because he has a small class at this time.

While it seems like I'm advocating Scott Frost I don't mean too. I'm using him as the example. I'm not sure I wouldn't take Charlie Strong instead. But that is just my 2 cents on why MR will never make it work.

 

[timnsun]

You act like I have been somehow hiding the fact that I think Riley is a bad football coach. Yes, it's clear.

I would support a coach I thought could be successful. But, yes, from the day we hired Riley I thought it was a huge mistake based on his resume. It was incredibly stupid in my opinion to hire the OSU staff and expect it to work here. And it hasn't. And the AD got fired for it. Now, we just wait it out until we can get a new coach.

I don't delight in going after positivity. I enjoy challenging those who don't see what is happening right in front of them. Which is what you do, too. It's what message boards or for. I could be wrong, Riley could straighten this out. But I am pretty sure we are staring at a losing season in year three. His second one. That is ridiculous.

Lots of truth here... my response was an answer to the question you had posed about true colors. I called it as I saw it, and it appears I was right, by your own admission.

You absolutely my be right about the 2nd losing season in 3 years as well... and if so, I have already agreed that a change should be made here.

The reality is I will never understand not giving the guy a chance from the start. I get the fact that he wasn’t a wow hire and that his record was unimpressive, but coaches have proven all the time that location matters, which is why I have been advocating for him so much. It’s hard to advocate for a coach that is staring another losing season in the face, though. And yes, if that happens, that is ridiculous.

 

[timnsun]

And you also delight in going after any poster that questions the desire to remain in mediocrity. For as much as you hate people that post negative.......these posters who are frustrated with this hire get just as sick of reading the sunshine as you do the negative. The one difference is while we might be coming off self-righteous because it is unfortunately going the way we thought........you have been using the "I'm a better fan" analogy.

But here’s my question... is it wrong to expect fans of the huskers to support the coaches at some point during their time here? Not saying you have never supported the coaches, but Phillipe even admitted as much above.

Support can be lost due to poor coaching and other decisions. But to never have supported in the first place, I have a hard time with that.

 

[TheOutline]

If I had one guess it would be Dan Mullen.

I would guess Dan, as well, as I think he is a top candidate this time if Riley is dismissed

 

[oldjar07]

But here’s my question... is it wrong to expect fans of the huskers to support the coaches at some point during their time here? Not saying you have never supported the coaches, but Phillipe even admitted as much above.

Support can be lost due to poor coaching and other decisions. But to never have supported in the first place, I have a hard time with that.

I'm not going to speak for someone else, but just because someone is critical of Riley doesn't mean you can't support him. I supported Riley since he's been here, I still do, and thought he had turned a corner last year. I thought we'd go 8-4 this year and would be satisfied with that. However the regression this year and overall bad play makes me doubt he's going to get things turned around.

 

[timnsun]

I'm not going to speak for someone else, but just because someone is critical of Riley doesn't mean you can't support him. I supported Riley since he's been here, I still do, and thought he had turned a corner last year. I thought we'd go 8-4 this year and would be satisfied with that. However the regression this year and overall bad play makes me doubt he's going to get things turned around.

I would love to refute this, but my eyes won’t let me.

Phillipe admitted as much in his post above that he has never supported Riley, which was why I was asking.

 

[Phillipe]

But here’s my question... is it wrong to expect fans of the huskers to support the coaches at some point during their time here? Not saying you have never supported the coaches, but Phillipe even admitted as much above.

Support can be lost due to poor coaching and other decisions. But to never have supported in the first place, I have a hard time with that.

Support perhaps is an interesting term. I simply lost interest for two plus seasons. I don't root for people I don't care for. Once Riley was hired, I realized this program was no longer for me. I never bitched about Riley on any message boards, I simply stopped caring. I have watched most of the games with disinterest. This is after a lifetime of being obsessed with Nebraska football. Some of it is getting older but my enthusiasm was modified over Pelini's last few years and simply died with the magical Eichorst/Riley combo. But I never trashed or criticized the program until after the NIU game when I realized Riley is done. Now, I am somewhat excited about starting over with hopefully a competent AD and coach. But I have completely lost faith in the media for either being complicit or too stupid to see this was a trainwreck.

 

[HuskerO]

To state as an absolute fact that he wasn't based on the same discussion is just as preposterous. But nobody seems to argue the fact that we hired a coach 2-13 in his last 15 conference games.

Your claim is that Riley was in deep water at OSU and my claim is (to piggy back @dinglefritz) that there is no credible evidence of Riley being on the hot seat at OSU. Did the OSU AD want to re-evaluate Riley's contract so OSU had some leverage since they had very little? Most likely yes. But to state otherwise without any credible evidence is just throwing shit against the wall hoping it sticks.

 

[HuskerO]

Support perhaps is an interesting term. I simply lost interest for two plus seasons. I don't root for people I don't care for. Once Riley was hired, I realized this program was no longer for me. I never bitched about Riley on any message boards, I simply stopped caring. I have watched most of the games with disinterest. This is after a lifetime of being obsessed with Nebraska football. Some of it is getting older but my enthusiasm was modified over Pelini's last few years and simply died with the magical Eichorst/Riley combo. But I never trashed or criticized the program until after the NIU game when I realized Riley is done. Now, I am somewhat excited about starting over with hopefully a competent AD and coach. But I have completely lost faith in the media for either being complicit or too stupid to see this was a trainwreck.

Fair and honest response which I can see your take. Thanks for clarification.

 

[timnsun]

Support perhaps is an interesting term. I simply lost interest for two plus seasons. I don't root for people I don't care for. Once Riley was hired, I realized this program was no longer for me. I never bitched about Riley on any message boards, I simply stopped caring. I have watched most of the games with disinterest. This is after a lifetime of being obsessed with Nebraska football. Some of it is getting older but my enthusiasm was modified over Pelini's last few years and simply died with the magical Eichorst/Riley combo. But I never trashed or criticized the program until after the NIU game when I realized Riley is done. Now, I am somewhat excited about starting over with hopefully a competent AD and coach. But I have completely lost faith in the media for either being complicit or too stupid to see this was a trainwreck.

Thanks for the response. Even if I may not agree with all of it, it helps to see where you are coming from.

 

[Phillipe]

Your claim is that Riley was in deep water at OSU and my claim is (to piggy back @dinglefritz) that there is no credible evidence of Riley being on the hot seat at OSU. Did the OSU AD want to re-evaluate Riley's contract so OSU had some leverage since they had very little? Most likely yes. But to state otherwise without any credible evidence is just throwing shit against the wall hoping it sticks.

I suppose that is a hot seat to some and not to others. Either way, it's water under the bridge. I don't imagine anybody really cares that much now.