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ESPN Win Probability

Sooner_or_Later

Sooner_or_Later

Redshirt Freshman
Oct 7, 2001
770
457
63
Updated based on yesterday's results, 4-8/5-7 appears the most likely at this point. Does either save Mike for next year? Can only hope the new AD has a brain to look beyond the record and all the good things being done.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017



Projected win percentage (probability)
Fri, Sept 29 @ Illinois 60.5%
Sat, Oct 7 vs Wisconsin 9.5%
Sat, Oct 14 vs Ohio State 5.9%
Sat, Oct 28 @ Purdue 46.3%
Sat, Nov 4 vs Northwestern 42.2%
Sat, Nov 11 @ Minnesota 27.0%
Sat, Nov 18 @ Penn State 5.0%
Fri, Nov 24 vs Iowa 36.4%

Final record probability
2-10 | 4.61% | (approx 1 in 22)
3-9 | 19.74% | (approx 1 in 5)
4-8 | 32.86% | (approx 1 in 3)
5-7 | 27.40% | (approx 1 in 4)
6-6 | 12.20% | (approx 1 in 8)
7-5 | 2.85% | (approx 1 in 35)
8-4 | 0.325% | (approx 1 in 308)
9-3 | 0.0170% | (approx 1 in 5,894)
10-2 | 0.000326% | (approx 1 in 307,413)


5-7 or better | 42.80% | (approx 3 in 7)
6-6 or better | 15.40% | (approx 2 in 13)
7-5 or better | 3.19% | (approx 3 in 94)
 
Sooner_or_Later said:
Updated based on yesterday's results, 4-8/5-7 appears the most likely at this point. Does either save Mike for next year? Can only hope the new AD has a brain to look beyond the record and all the good things being done.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017



Projected win percentage (probability)
Fri, Sept 29 @ Illinois 60.5%
Sat, Oct 7 vs Wisconsin 9.5%
Sat, Oct 14 vs Ohio State 5.9%
Sat, Oct 28 @ Purdue 46.3%
Sat, Nov 4 vs Northwestern 42.2%
Sat, Nov 11 @ Minnesota 27.0%
Sat, Nov 18 @ Penn State 5.0%
Fri, Nov 24 vs Iowa 36.4%

Final record probability
2-10 | 4.61% | (approx 1 in 22)
3-9 | 19.74% | (approx 1 in 5)
4-8 | 32.86% | (approx 1 in 3)
5-7 | 27.40% | (approx 1 in 4)
6-6 | 12.20% | (approx 1 in 8)
7-5 | 2.85% | (approx 1 in 35)
8-4 | 0.325% | (approx 1 in 308)
9-3 | 0.0170% | (approx 1 in 5,894)
10-2 | 0.000326% | (approx 1 in 307,413)


5-7 or better | 42.80% | (approx 3 in 7)
6-6 or better | 15.40% | (approx 2 in 13)
7-5 or better | 3.19% | (approx 3 in 94)
Click to expand...


If the new AD keeps him after going 5-7...there will be a new-new AD
 
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Can someone give me one reason that he should have been hired as the NU football three years ago immediately after a guy with a 70% win percentage had been fired?
 
Solana Beach Husker said:
Can someone give me one reason that he should have been hired as the NU football three years ago immediately after a guy with a 70% win percentage had been fired?
Click to expand...

Even though I agree with you and posted the same question after the NIU disaster, what's done is done.

All my question did last week was bring on a fight from a poster who is always looking for a fight.

It's time to move on with a new AD, who hopefully will see the light.
 
Last edited:
Solana Beach Husker said:
Can someone give me one reason that he should have been hired as the NU football three years ago immediately after a guy with a 70% win percentage had been fired?
Click to expand...

Paul Chryst recommended Mike Riley to Eichorst. Just like Barry Alvarez recommended Shawn Eichorst to Harvey Perlman.

Are you otherwise suggesting that a division rival wouldn't want anything the best for Nebraska?
 
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Solana Beach Husker said:
Can someone give me one reason that he should have been hired as the NU football three years ago immediately after a guy with a 70% win percentage had been fired?
Click to expand...
SE wanted someone who was widely respected, experienced and professional. Riley was the anti-Pelini good guy many (including myself) wanted. For me, IF Pelini had behaved better, the win/loss record and the blowouts wouldn't have been deal breakers for me. Tom's support carried and still carries a lot of water and Bo just wasted it with his juvenile behavior. I kind of wonder too, who would have taken the job considering how divided our fan base was and is? The hire doesn't look great right now but Riley still has a shot to turn things around. I could be wrong but I wondered at the time if they hired him in part because they knew he was a little older and didn't want to coach forever. Just a transition guy who they could control.
 
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JohnRossEwing said:
No one can...sadly.

Not a good reason anyway.
Click to expand...
Don’t be thick... there are valid reasons even if you don’t agree with them.

Riley brought professionalism back to Nebraska. When he was hired many experts said he would improve recruiting. He was known as a developer of talent.

Hindsight is awesome and can help guys like you say it was a terrible hire. But the fact of the matter is, he was hired for valid reasons, even if they haven’t panned out.
 
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Sooner_or_Later said:
Updated based on yesterday's results, 4-8/5-7 appears the most likely at this point. Does either save Mike for next year? Can only hope the new AD has a brain to look beyond the record and all the good things being done....
Click to expand...

I would be hard-pressed to come up with reasons for keeping a coach that is below average win wise. But, it is an exercise that I would look at, so what good is being done.

Football coaches have a pinpoint metric for determining success - wins. Do I expect a Riley led team to excel given time? My hard number for excel is 11 or more wins with 7 wins as the once in a career, bare bottom floor. My answer is "no". Riley would have to change his offensive philosophy imo, or get the the once in a civilization kind of qb for short term success. Over the long haul (or even short haul), his philosophy will not attain the results necessary for him to keep his job. I believe his results would get him fired at any one of the top 3 or 4 teams in every division of P5 football. If Riley were at another above average P5 school, I would understand that school parting ways with Mike Riley.

Recruiting is important. Objectively speaking, his recruiting hasn't been that good, but not bad either.

The staff is important. Unfortunately, staffs are mostly tethered to the HC. A new HC will want to bring in their choices. Unless succession is from within, I would expect most of the staff positions to turn over. Maybe a new HC will hand pick some of the current staff to stay.

So my question is, what good is being done by Mike Riley that can't be done by his replacement?
 
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The hire happened in such a way that makes me question how thorough the proces was.
As I've said before, it's doesn't have to be bo or Riley. There are coaches who will act professional and win games at Nebraska.
 
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huskerfan1414 said:
The hire happened in such a way that makes me question how thorough the proces was.
As I've said before, it's doesn't have to be bo or Riley. There are coaches who will act professional and win games at Nebraska.
Click to expand...
every AD has a list of guys who they would want as their next head coach IF they need one. SE knew what he was going to do long before he did it IMO and Pelini is largely responsible for that. SE put up with it much longer than I would of. I think Riley was at the top of the list for whatever reasons and he took the job. Search committees and building consensus from that committee is not practical. History will judge but history requires us to let things play out.
 
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timnsun said:
Don’t be thick... there are valid reasons even if you don’t agree with them.

Riley brought professionalism back to Nebraska. When he was hired many experts said he would improve recruiting. He was known as a developer of talent.

Hindsight is awesome and can help guys like you say it was a terrible hire. But the fact of the matter is, he was hired for valid reasons, even if they haven’t panned out.
Click to expand...
No...that is not a reason. Literally 99% of all coaches are "professional"

Hindsight is not needed. We literally had posters ON THIS PAGE that said "I think the Husker account was hacked, no way this Riley coach was hired"

I want him to win all his games...but "want" and "knowing" are different. I (and all of us) knew he was average
 
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dinglefritz said:
every AD has a list of guys who they would want as their next head coach IF they need one. SE knew what he was going to do long before he did it IMO and Pelini is largely responsible for that. SE put up with it much longer than I would of. I think Riley was at the top of the list for whatever reasons and he took the job. Search committees and building consensus from that committee is not practical. History will judge but history requires us to let things play out.
Click to expand...
I agree he gave bo too many years.
I can't say that this was a well planned or executed coaching search, and neither can you. What we do know is Riley was on the hot seat at Oregon state. And the hire happened relatively quick.
 
Husker Sledge said:
Minnesota and Wisconsin (at home) are way too low.
Click to expand...
Why? Wisconsin will shut down our run and force Lee to pass. Game over. Minnesota is on the road on which will probably be a cold day. Fleck will probably have his team improving every week l, and by that time we will have probably mailed it in.
 
If we play good defense and the offense manages the game right, we should beat Illinois, Northwest, Minnesota and Purdue. We have the talent to beat Wisconsin and Iowa but we have to play good defense and the offense has to play at its best. Now Pen State and OSU, those two game we can compete in, if we play great we have a chance to beat Pen State but OSU it would take the best game of the year to knock off.

So at this moment, assuming we keep playing good defense and our offense plays better and at least manages the game we are looking at 7-5 with a possible 8-4 or HUGE maybe 9-3 (9-3 one would take a huge turn around for the offense and continued great defense play). I just don’t see 5-7 ever happening but our worse case is 6-6.

So this season reality is 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4. With a huge turn around to make 9-3 (honestly don’t see this one happening but we will eventually get Chris Jones, Kalu and our LBs back, this could help A LOT).
 
huskerssalts said:
If we play good defense and the offense manages the game right, we should beat Illinois, Northwest, Minnesota and Purdue. We have the talent to beat Wisconsin and Iowa but we have to play good defense and the offense has to play at its best. Now Pen State and OSU, those two game we can compete in, if we play great we have a chance to beat Pen State but OSU it would take the best game of the year to knock off.

So at this moment, assuming we keep playing good defense and our offense plays better and at least manages the game we are looking at 7-5 with a possible 8-4 or HUGE maybe 9-3 (9-3 one would take a huge turn around for the offense and continued great defense play). I just don’t see 5-7 ever happening but our worse case is 6-6.
Click to expand...
You are putting too much stock into the defense. We have played two teams in a row with horrible offenses. It's hard to tell if they are that much better. You are going to find out in a couple weeks. If they play well against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue, I will start to believe. There is no way we get to 8-9 wins with Lee at qb. The good defenses are going to stop the run and make us pass. It will get brutal.
 
supersport24 said:
You are putting too much stock into the defense. We have played two teams in a row with horrible offenses. It's hard to tell if they are that much better. You are going to find out in a couple weeks. If they play well against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue, I will start to believe. There is no way we get to 8-9 wins with Lee at qb. The good defenses are going to stop the run and make us pass. It will get brutal.
Click to expand...

Agreed I am and for reason. I have seen a defense that looked lost and couldn’t stop anyone to improvements each week up to the Rutgers game. Were we watched our defense shut the Rutgers down to under 200 total yards with both starting Safety’s gone, Chris Jones and a bunch of LBs out if the game. Usually when you have that many starters and key players on defense gone, you struggle, against anyone. But they still stop the Rutgers. So yes, I’m giving our defense credit because they earned it.
 
And honestly I didn’t post this to try and make any believe or see it my way. Just what I see and my opinion. What I have learned over the years on this site, it’s hard to get anyone on here to switch there views of anything, even with facts given in black and white. Just my opinion and what I see.
 
JohnRossEwing said:
No...that is not a reason. Literally 99% of all coaches are "professional"

Hindsight is not needed. We literally had posters ON THIS PAGE that said "I think the Husker account was hacked, no way this Riley coach was hired"

I want him to win all his games...but "want" and "knowing" are different. I (and all of us) knew he was average
Click to expand...
I gave two other reasons… Recruiting and development. There were a lot of experts (real football experts, not the self-proclaimed board experts) who said that this was something that Riley would be good at.

But of course, the “board experts” know more.

Please don’t assume that Eichorst had absolutely no plan when he brought in Riley. There were reasons, once again, even if you don’t agree with them. His reasons haven’t proven valid at this point, but that doesn’t mean he had no reasons whatsoever to bring in Riley.
 
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huskerssalts said:
Agreed I am and for reason. I have seen a defense that looked lost and couldn’t stop anyone to improvements each week up to the Rutgers game. Were we watched our defense shut the Rutgers down to under 200 total yards with both starting Safety’s gone, Chris Jones and a bunch of LBs out if the game. Usually when you have that many starters and key players on defense gone, you struggle, against anyone. But they still stop the Rutgers. So yes, I’m giving our defense credit because they earned it.
Click to expand...
Rutgers is the worst team in the BIG who was missing their only playmaker, so I don't put much stock into the defense yet. In the Northern Illinois game when the defense needed a stop they allowed the go ahead touchdown. The three game stretch starting in October will tell you what you need to know about our defense.
 
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huskerfan1414 said:
I agree he gave bo too many years.
I can't say that this was a well planned or executed coaching search, and neither can you. What we do know is Riley was on the hot seat at Oregon state. And the hire happened relatively quick.
Click to expand...
I personally have seen no credible evidence of Riley being on the hot seat at OSU. I've seen some third hand questionable posts on here and that's it. He MIGHT have been and maybe should have been but I don't know that for a fact. Third hand rumors from a second rate reporter or fan doesn't count. I don't doubt that he was the only name on the list and that is an AD's choice. I will note that his boss interviewed Riley and agreed to the hire. Of course that is the same boss that agreed to hiring SP, firing Frank, hiring Callahan, fired SP, agreed to hiring Bo, wanted Bo gone, hired SE to fire Bo......You also have to admit although the odds are long, Riley still could rally the troops and save his job whether one likes it or not.
 
dinglefritz said:
I personally have seen no credible evidence of Riley being on the hot seat at OSU. I've seen some third hand questionable posts on here and that's it. He MIGHT have been and maybe should have been but I don't know that for a fact. Third hand rumors from a second rate reporter or fan doesn't count. I don't doubt that he was the only name on the list and that is an AD's choice. I will note that his boss interviewed Riley and agreed to the hire. Of course that is the same boss that agreed to hiring SP, firing Frank, hiring Callahan, fired SP, agreed to hiring Bo, wanted Bo gone, hired SE to fire Bo......You also have to admit although the odds are long, Riley still could rally the troops and save his job whether one likes it or not.
Click to expand...
Of course he could, as I've posted numerous times.
 
timnsun said:
I gave two other reasons… Recruiting and development. There were a lot of experts (real football experts, not the self-proclaimed board experts) who said that this was something that Riley would be good at.

But of course, the “board experts” know more.

Please don’t assume that Eichorst had absolutely no plan when he brought in Riley. There were reasons, once again, even if you don’t agree with them. His reasons haven’t proven valid at this point, but that doesn’t mean he had no reasons whatsoever to bring in Riley.
Click to expand...


SE had "reasons" and here they are.

1. He hated Bo (okay, so did most of us)
2. He thought that any donkey could win 9 games a year at NU if that idiot/asshole Bo could do it with a lame ass staff and lame recruiting
3. So he hired a great guy...turns out he is an average coach.

Recruiting is okay, it is not great...and did you say development? Cream cheese! I haven't seen much of that, if anything the offense is getting worse and worse.
 
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JohnRossEwing said:
SE had "reasons" and here they are.

1. He hated Bo (okay, so did most of us)
2. He thought that any donkey could win 9 games a year at NU if that idiot/asshole Bo could do it with a lame ass staff and lame recruiting
3. So he hired a great guy...turns out he is an average coach.

Recruiting is okay, it is not great...and did you say development? Cream cheese! I haven't seen much of that, if anything the offense is getting worse and worse.
Click to expand...
I’m not arguing the lack of development... that has been frustrating to watch. What I am saying is that there were a lot of voices in college football who praised this hire, and one of the reasons was he could develop players.

Just because we haven’t seen that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a reason.

I am as frustrated as you about where we are at, and ready to move on from Riley if he doesn’t turn it around this year. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any good reasons for the hire.
 
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JohnRossEwing said:
SE had "reasons" and here they are.

1. He hated Bo (okay, so did most of us)
2. He thought that any donkey could win 9 games a year at NU if that idiot/asshole Bo could do it with a lame ass staff and lame recruiting
3. So he hired a great guy...turns out he is an average coach.

Recruiting is okay, it is not great...and did you say development? Cream cheese! I haven't seen much of that, if anything the offense is getting worse and worse.
Click to expand...

This.

I believe many fans on this board, and many Husker fans in general, thought any bozo coach could win 9 games at NU. Bo never won a conference title, but played in some CC games. He could never get over the hurdle to win the conference.

Most fans grew tired of his losing 4 games every single year, some by a blowout.

It's been stated on this board many times that 9 wins is not a bench mark for the Huskers and for Bo supporters to stop talking about the "but he never won fewer than 9 games" bullsh!t. "T.O. won at least 9 games every year, but he didn't play 13 or 14 games a year to get those 9 wins."

Bo was brought in for his defensive prowess. His defense was decent, but his defenses played horrible at times:



Most fans wanted Bo gone, mostly for his personality, but also for his defense's lack of success at times.

Shawn Eichorst screwed up by not getting a coach that could come in and continue to win 9 games a year.
 
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