Dennis Dodd Speculation on More B1G Expansion and What Happens to the PAC Conference

[RedCap]

It's a lengthy article and reflects Dodd's current opinion. Basically he thinks it's quite possible the PAC devolves into a non P5 conference with the 4 corners schools winding up in the Big 12 while Oregon and Washington wind up in the B1G. Sounds like he believes more conference changes are on the way.

If Oregon and Washington come to the B1G, it's possible they would come in initially with a lower revenue share (but one that's still better than they could get from a diminished PAC).

The driver behind all of this is the inability of the PAC to get a good media deal because they lost USC/UCLA, because the Big 12 beat them to the punch in securing deals to fill the available media time slots and because the media giants currently are trying to cut back their expenses.

ARTICLE Link

 

[scarletred]

Like I mention in another post.. BIG will go after Oregon and Washington…
Obviously if ND wanted in the B1G they would have already made a commitment..

 

[Redmich]

Like I mention in another post.. BIG will go after Oregon and Washington…
Obviously if ND wanted in the B1G they would have already made a commitment..

It is my understanding that Washington and Oregon have all but begged the big ten to take them and the big has passed.

Maybe it becomes a reality if they agree to lower payouts that don’t dilute the payouts of other big ten members

 

[scarletred]

It is my understanding that Washington and Oregon have all but begged the big ten to take them and the big has passed.

Maybe it becomes a reality if they agree to lower payouts that don’t dilute the payouts of other big ten members

Could be, I know they won’t want to pay out like they did for UCLA/USC..

But I don’t think like in another thread that the B1G is going after FSU and Florida..

Florida leaving for the B1G is ludicrous to begin with..

 

[RedCap]

It is my understanding that Washington and Oregon have all but begged the big ten to take them and the big has passed.

Maybe it becomes a reality if they agree to lower payouts that don’t dilute the payouts of other big ten members

I believe the issue was that at the time USC/UCLA were coming to the B1G that Oregon/Washington begged to come along. At the time apparently the B1G said not right now but put them on hold for possible future consideration. Likely two reasons for that. First, of course, is the B1G was still waiting for an answer from Notre Dame. Nothing happened with Notre Dame. Second, it sounds like the B1G presidents didn't want to be accused of busting up the PAC by taking 4 schools. But now if the PAC busts up any way with some departing for the Big 12 then that objection of the presidents would disappear.

 

[Redmich]

I believe the issue was that at the time USC/UCLA were coming to the B1G that Oregon/Washington begged to come along. At the time apparently the B1G said not right now but put them on hold for possible future consideration. Likely two reasons for that. First, of course, is the B1G was still waiting for an answer from Notre Dame. Nothing happened with Notre Dame. Second, it sounds like the B1G presidents didn't want to be accused of busting up the PAC by taking 4 schools. But now if the PAC busts up any way with some departing for the Big 12 then that objection of the presidents would disappear.

Perhaps. The media rights deal (which the ink is barely dry on) would have to increase substantially to admit other schools - otherwise every other big ten school is taking a pay cut.

The big ten negotiated 2 scenarios in the current media deal - USC and UCLA with and without Oregon and Washington and found that adding the latter 2 schools didn’t really add to the deal they could negotiate with USC/UCLA alone

Oregon and Washington would be great academic and athletic additions but financially they only dilute the money pot

 

[RedCap]

Perhaps. The media rights deal (which the ink is barely dry on) would have to increase substantially to admit other schools - otherwise every other big ten school is taking a pay cut.

The big ten negotiated 2 scenarios in the current media deal - USC and UCLA with and without Oregon and Washington and found that adding the latter 2 schools didn’t really add to the deal they could negotiate with USC/UCLA alone

But Dodd thinks that Oregon and Washington could agree to come in at lower revenue shares. Being in the B1G would be better than staying in a hobbled PAC. And remember Nebraska came in that way with an initially reduced revenue share. I think it would be worth it for Oregon and Washington to buy their way in just to be in a rich and stable conference for the future. But I'm not a mindreader obviously so who knows.

 

[JOHNNY N]

Pac 12 is just about done. Terribly run conference.

 

[ADV1]

Oregon and Washington would be great academic and athletic additions but financially they only dilute the money pot

I've heard this before and just can't wrap my mind around it... the NW has a large population in Seattle & Portland... that whole area bleeds Seattle Seahawks football, why those two schools going to the B1G couldn't bring that fanbase with them is hard to understand, especially with an upgrade in competition that the B1G fields... to me (an I'm obviously not educated on crap like this) it's some really good money that for some reason isn't being realized

 

[Huskers123456]

I've heard this before and just can't wrap my mind around it... the NW has a large population in Seattle & Portland... that whole area bleeds Seattle Seahawks football, why those two schools going to the B1G couldn't bring that fanbase with them is hard to understand, especially with an upgrade in competition that the B1G fields... to me (an I'm obviously not educated on crap like this) it's some really good money that for some reason isn't being realized

I think it boils down to the networks not really valuing those teams and markets that much. USC brought a national brand and a huge market. UCLA tagged along. Plus the BIG has an affinity for LA.

I would be surprised if Oregon and Washington aren't eventually added. Only so many decent teams left. I wish they would trade Rutgers for Syracuse. Rutgers is so blah.

 

[konaki]

Eventually once the SEC makes the next move you will see the BIG counter by adding solid teams from the West Coast, it's inevitable.

 

[Redmich]

I've heard this before and just can't wrap my mind around it... the NW has a large population in Seattle & Portland... that whole area bleeds Seattle Seahawks football, why those two schools going to the B1G couldn't bring that fanbase with them is hard to understand, especially with an upgrade in competition that the B1G fields... to me (an I'm obviously not educated on crap like this) it's some really good money that for some reason isn't being realized

the media contract has already been negotiated and signed for a number of years going forward without those programs
the media payout is static - a fixed number or it has been determined that any small bump in payout via another media partner still would cost big ten schools money by adding them

the big ten is free to add those 2 programs but Fox-CBS and NBC (the main players in the media deal) aren't going to pay more

so right now you have the media payout divided by 16 teams - adding 2 more doesn't substantially increase the media payout it just divides it by 18 rather than 16

 

[RedCap]

I think the immediate term for further B1G expansion depends a lot on the new commissioner once the person is hired. But longer term (if not sooner) the PAC in its current form is dead.

 

[mgbreis]

I don't give a crap about the money and contracts, I just want to watching interesting football games. Washington and Oregon are interesting. Sign 'em up.

 

[Huskers123456]

the media contract has already been negotiated and signed for a number of years without those programs
the media payout is static - a fixed number or it has been determined that any small bump in payout via another media partner still would cost big ten schools money by adding them

the big ten is free to add those 2 programs but Fox-CBS and NBC (the main players in the media deal) aren't going to pay more

so right now you have the media payout divided by 16 teams - adding 2 more doesn't substantially increase the media payout it just divides it by 18 rather than 16

Signed for a number of years? Didn't they just sign a new deal last summer? The contract that brought CBS and NBC into the fold?

 

[Redmich]

The current pac 12 had Oregon and Washington anchoring the NW- Arizona/ASU in the SW and Utah/Colorado in the mountain region. The fact that they can’t even get a stick of gum in a media contract tells you what the networks think they are worth from advertising standpoint

 

[Redmich]

Signed for a number of years? Didn't they just sign a new deal last summer? The contract that brought CBS and NBC into the fold?

Yes. I meant for a number of years going forward. They are going to open it up again for a while

 

[Redmich]

Maybe the ACC would be interested in some of those schools - they could form the PACC

 

[Redmich]

I don't give a crap about the money and contracts, I just want to watching interesting football games. Washington and Oregon are interesting. Sign 'em up.

i agree it would be awesome having them in the conference

but if you are sitting on a 16 member board of a corporation and someone comes to you with a proposal to add 2 more board members who would be super awesome but with the caveat that in order to do so everyone would have to take a pay cut - no way anyone is signing up for that

 

[Huskers123456]

i agree it would be awesome having them in the conference

but if you are sitting on a 16 member board of a corporation and someone comes to you with a proposal to add 2 more board members who would be super awesome but with the caveat that in order to do so everyone would have to take a pay cut - no way anyone is signing up for that

I think this is just the BIG slow playing because they can. BIG has proven over the years to be a shrewd negotiater in conference expansion. I would question adding Rutgers and Maryland but it's not like anyone can argue it didn't make everyone rich.

They will squeeze the maximum amount of concessions out of Washington and Oregon and then bring them in to play OSU and Michigan every year for the first 4 years. And viewership will be through the roof and they will use those numbers on the next tv deal.

 

[mgbreis]

i agree it would be awesome having them in the conference

but if you are sitting on a 16 member board of a corporation and someone comes to you with a proposal to add 2 more board members who would be super awesome but with the caveat that in order to do so everyone would have to take a pay cut - no way anyone is signing up for that

Okay in that case just get rid of Northwestern and Rutgers. No one wants to watch them do anything. (kidding/wishful thinking)

 

[RedBaloneyPony]

i agree it would be awesome having them in the conference

but if you are sitting on a 16 member board of a corporation and someone comes to you with a proposal to add 2 more board members who would be super awesome but with the caveat that in order to do so everyone would have to take a pay cut - no way anyone is signing up for that

this would be the most likely response.

 

[Redmich]

Okay in that case just get rid of Northwestern and Rutgers. No one wants to watch them do anything. (kidding/wishful thinking

This is part of the reasoning why FSU is arguing for unequal conference payouts

OSU - MI - PSU - USC and Neb (due to historic brand) +/- UCLA are what makes the conf valuable. The other programs - Iowa, Purdue etc just provide those schools with opponents so the networks can showcase the marquee programs

 

[moralvictories]

Could be, I know they won’t want to pay out like they did for UCLA/USC..

But I don’t think like in another thread that the B1G is going after FSU and Florida..

Florida leaving for the B1G is ludicrous to begin with..

FSU coming to the B1G is almost as ludicrous.

 

[ckriley]

FSU coming to the B1G is almost as ludicrous.

Yeah, I think the B1G likely adds Notre Dame and Stanford when it's all said and done. But I'm actually not sure Stanford would want to make that move.

 

[TheNewNU]

It is my understanding that Washington and Oregon have all but begged the big ten to take them and the big has passed.

Maybe it becomes a reality if they agree to lower payouts that don’t dilute the payouts of other big ten members

One of the reasons Warren went back to the NFL is because the B1G wasnt going to renew his contract. They were pissed he was trying to get UW and UO. They arent happening. UW has a better chance but until Notre Dame signs on. B1G is gonna stay at 16 imo.

 

[jflores]

I think in the near term adding teams probably dilutes the pool a bit in terms of money, but in the long run it would probably still be a good move.

At least in the short term I’d rather have games in places like Seattle than in Indiana . Better overall matchups from a marketing perspective.

In the longer term, the more NFL like CFB becomes you would ideally want presence in Seattle and San Francisco even if leaving them out now puts a bit of money on the table.

 

[TheNewNU]

I think the immediate term for further B1G expansion depends a lot on the new commissioner once the person is hired. But longer term (if not sooner) the PAC in its current form is dead.

As soon as Arizona ASU Utah and Colorado leave for the XII. The conference is over. UO and UW apparently scoffed at the XII overtures last year. B1G doesnt want them. Warren did though which is why he is now working for the Bears.

 

[HuskerDrew]

Perhaps. The media rights deal (which the ink is barely dry on) would have to increase substantially to admit other schools - otherwise every other big ten school is taking a pay cut.

The big ten negotiated 2 scenarios in the current media deal - USC and UCLA with and without Oregon and Washington and found that adding the latter 2 schools didn’t really add to the deal they could negotiate with USC/UCLA alone

Oregon and Washington would be great academic and athletic additions but financially they only dilute the money pot

True, but then I don’t know WTF the league was thinking bringing in Rutgers and Maryland. Eventually, if we go to 16, if ND isn’t coming we need to jump on UW and Oregon. If we got those two, that’s right up there with the SEC and anyone else is a distant third.

I can’t imagine the travel though for all sports, the costs are too high. Maybe football only, with all other sports for the west coast schools being in a “pod” by themselves.

 

[TheNewNU]

True, but then I don’t know WTF the league was thinking bringing in Rutgers and Maryland. Eventually, if we go to 16, if ND isn’t coming we need to jump on UW and Oregon. If we got those two, that’s right up there with the SEC and anyone else is a distant third.

I can’t imagine the travel though for all sports, the costs are too high. Maybe football only, with all other sports for the west coast schools being in a “pod” by themselves.

I just don't see Oregon happening. We all know Notre Dame will be joining the B1G eventually. FSU is positioning themselves to move to SEC or B1G. I would not be at all surprised to see the B1G make overtures to Texas A&M, they are not happy Texas got into the SEC. A Florida school will happen soon. They'll take FSU, UF, and/or Miami, Then there is Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA hanging around too. I feel for Oregon State, Wazzu, Cal, and Stanford. They are going to be up a shit creek without a paddle when the Pac 12 dissolves. Most likely they will have to merge with the Mountain West.

 

[moralvictories]

Yeah, I think the B1G likely adds Notre Dame and Stanford when it's all said and done. But I'm actually not sure Stanford would want to make that move.

Stanford wouldn't want to come to the B1G? As opposed to staying in a conference that is starting to crumble?

 

[Redmich]

Stanford wouldn't want to come to the B1G? As opposed to staying in a conference that is starting to crumble

Notre Dame will likely get a major say in who they allow to gravy train into the conference to make it an even 18.

I think Stanford would be attractive given the rivalry with ND, the academics and the athletic prestige in Olympic sports

On the other hand Notre Dame could say we want Dordt and the big ten would say giddy-up

 

[ckriley]

Stanford wouldn't want to come to the B1G? As opposed to staying in a conference that is starting to crumble?

Stanford puts an emphasis on academics and doesn't like the idea of their student-athletes traveling to the other side of the country during midterms and finals. They consider all their sports, not just football.

Or so I've read.

 

[Redmich]

Stanford puts an emphasis on academics and doesn't like the idea of their student-athletes traveling to the other side of the country during midterms and finals. They consider all their sports, not just football.

Or so I've read.

There is speculation that the big ten is considering building a Midwest complex/campus for the west coast schools to alleviate travel challenges

 

[250vertical]

I just don't see Oregon happening. We all know Notre Dame will be joining the B1G eventually. FSU is positioning themselves to move to SEC or B1G. I would not be at all surprised to see the B1G make overtures to Texas A&M, they are not happy Texas got into the SEC. A Florida school will happen soon. They'll take FSU, UF, and/or Miami, Then there is Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA hanging around too. I feel for Oregon State, Wazzu, Cal, and Stanford. They are going to be up a shit creek without a paddle when the Pac 12 dissolves. Most likely they will have to merge with the Mountain West.

As far as the BIG and ACC goes, the BIG will stay after UVA and UNC, and they will be in a tug of war with the SEC for both. Both are academic public ivies, in states where there are no conflicts and objections (such as Florida opposed to FSU or Miami, and South Carolina opposed to Clemson). Fun, but useless fact, that Virginia and North Carolina are the only two states with stars on the confederate flag and no schools in the SEC.
The PAC needs to keep a close hold on Arizona, whose elite basketball program would thrive in the Big 12 - the best college BB conference. Arizona obviously knows several schools in their current conference are trying like hell to get out - they may not wait for the other shoe to drop. If the PAC media deal is as squirrely as we are hearing, they could pull the ejection lever.
As has been said, what goes around comes around - the PAC tried to destroy the BIg 12 in both 2010 and again in 2011 by nearly succeeding in pulling Texas, TT, Oklahoma and Kansas.

 

[EmormousDouchebag]

Leave it to the blue conferences hemorrhaging money to move to the red conferences and destroy those as well.

 

[ckriley]

Leave it to the blue conferences hemorrhaging money to move to the red conferences and destroy those as well.

TIL the B1G was hemorrhaging money