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2026 is the year where a lot of things are coming due.
However, both Petitti and Sankey have expressed that they are considering a future with a more "condensed" (to use Petitti's word) future for the sport than the Baker Proposal. They're not looking for a future that includes every current FBS school by any means.
Jon Wilner thinks the two conferences will leverage their power positions, as they don't need the other conferences but the other conferences do need them, to get guaranteed minimum playoff spots in the playoff. That the two conferences will threaten to breakaway in order to get everyone else to vote the way they want.
Others think that the possibility of a breakway is more serious. Nicole Auerbach and Stewart Mandel of the Athletic believe the income disparity is growing to levels that make such a split inevitable, even if it doesn't happen soon. And that there's a possibility both of the B1G and SEC doing their own thing and of the P4 becoming the new, smaller caste system of the Big 12 and ACC essentially serving the function of the current G5. That the P4 could do their own thing and the B1G/SEC (having more than double the income of the Big 12 and ACC) would dominate in the former FBS division that broke away.
Regardless of what's to come, 2026 seems to be the big year. It's less than 2 years away.
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2026 is the year where a lot of things are coming due.
- Mountain West Media Deal Expires.
- The two-year exemption for the Pac-2 conference Expires.
- ESPN must decide if they want to opt into the ACC media deal from 2027-2036 or opt out, ending their obligation to the conference (they could also renegotiate, of course).
- The CFP agreement expires. Officially, after 2026, there is no playoff agreement. No media deal for it. Nothing. The powers that be need to figure out if they simply want to re-up the 12 team model, tweak it, or do something completely new.
- Florida State is trying to get out of the ACC. They likely will, one way or another, by then. Schools that no longer want to be part of a conference generally aren't forced to stay for very long, it's too toxic to hold someone in a relationship against their will.
- The NLRB case against USC will be concluded, one way or another. Odds are the courts agree with the NLRB (they have a 98% win rate, and generally don't bring cases they don't believe are in the bag) and says that USC players qualify as employees. If this occurs there will be a chain reaction resulting in all FBS college football players being declared employees. Just as important, it would mean players have the right to unionize.
- Johnson v NCAA will likely have come to a conclusion, deciding whether or not players in revenue-generating sports such as football and basketball are employees. It will also potentially rule on the legality of the NCAA's ban on players who have been paid* to play sports can play sports in college. Something that has been part of the NCAA's rules since it was created.
- House v NCAA will likely have come to a conclusion. As part of the case they are asking the courts to strike down the prohibition against allowing conferences from paying athletes. They are also claiming football and basketball players are entitled to a portion of the revenue from media deals. Experts in the case testified players are worth up to 20% of the media revenue they earn.
However, both Petitti and Sankey have expressed that they are considering a future with a more "condensed" (to use Petitti's word) future for the sport than the Baker Proposal. They're not looking for a future that includes every current FBS school by any means.
Jon Wilner thinks the two conferences will leverage their power positions, as they don't need the other conferences but the other conferences do need them, to get guaranteed minimum playoff spots in the playoff. That the two conferences will threaten to breakaway in order to get everyone else to vote the way they want.
Others think that the possibility of a breakway is more serious. Nicole Auerbach and Stewart Mandel of the Athletic believe the income disparity is growing to levels that make such a split inevitable, even if it doesn't happen soon. And that there's a possibility both of the B1G and SEC doing their own thing and of the P4 becoming the new, smaller caste system of the Big 12 and ACC essentially serving the function of the current G5. That the P4 could do their own thing and the B1G/SEC (having more than double the income of the Big 12 and ACC) would dominate in the former FBS division that broke away.
Regardless of what's to come, 2026 seems to be the big year. It's less than 2 years away.
