Bucknuts invade the valut as 2.5 dog
- Thread starter scarletred
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Maybe, but one of those wins better be over Maryland, Michigan or Ohio State. The other remaining games will make for nice wins, but they’re not really resume boosters.
I had to drive to Omaha to fly out for work tomorrow. Pavelka is awesome! You never realize how much you miss a radio broadcast, until you do.
Maybe, but Penn State is in a free fall and I don’t see many wins left on Northwestern’s schedule.
I really think the Huskers will win more than three games down the stretch. But the point of my response was that IF they only win three more, they’re probably back on the bubble.
If Nebraska goes 9-11 in Big 10 play they have a 81.2% chance of making the dance. This site will show you all the odds you need.
Not sure we're quite that high, but I don't consider myself a bracket expert. If we can get MD and Mich both, that would be huge. We're still only #49 in the NET, even after today. The USC and rutgers losses are hurting us there.
Yea very odd at our lack of upward movement #49 NET. We have more quad 1 wins than 15 of the 20 teams ahead of us and NU has zero quad 3/4 losses.
KenPom is more inline with reality - #39
Yeah I think the Huskers are in pretty good shape, but still need to take care of some business down the stretch. Beating another tournament team or two would take the drama out of Selection Sunday.
NET uses school past history which IMO makes it my least used metric when I look for tournament teams.
Teams like North Carolina
They are ranked 5 spots ahead of Nebraska and there is not one metric that is higher than ours. According to BPI our strength of schedule is 45th and NC is 67th... so even that isn't higher this year, but some how they are ranked higher than NU in both the BPI and NET. It makes zero sence.
NC is 14-10 overall and Nebraska is 16-8
Nebraska is 5-6 vs Q1 and North Carolina is 1-9
I usually write more, but those two metrics alone should show you how flawed the BPI and NET are.
BPI
NC = 30
NU = 43
NET
NC = 46
NU = 49
There is something wrong with both of those metrics, and IMO should not be used like they are. North Carolinas history should have nothing to do with this years team. No way should they even be close to where they are sitting right now.
NU's 5 best wins
@Creighton
@Oregon
UCLA
Illinois
Ohio State
NC best wins
UCLA
PITT
Dayton
GT
@Hawaii
SMU
NO way should NC be ranked higher
I’ll mirror what Fred said - I’d still like to see this team play well for 40 minutes. The metrics will take care of themselves if that happens!
I totally agree with you, but unfortunately NET still seems to carry quite a bit of weight with the committee. Last year Wisconsin had a similar resume to Nebraska except they had more "good losses" in the non-conference so their NET was 23. Badgers were gifted a #5 seed and NU got stuck in the 8-9 game.
21=100%
20=99%
19=81%
18= 50%
If we get to 18 with wins over any of the two following we are on the right side of that 50%
Maryland
Michigan
@Ohio St
Win one of these and one of the 3 above we will either be last 4 in or first 4 out
@Northwestern
@Penn State
If we win these two and none of the other we will need to win a couple in the Big 10 Tourney
Minnesota
Iowa
19 is the magic number, because it will get us to six Q1 wins minimum, but 18 with seven Q1 wins will also get us in too
If you compare us and creighton, it's pretty apparent it's our quad 2 losses to Rutgers and USC. I'm with you, I think we're right around 40th.
Too bad Hawaii's season went down the crapper. Tough place to win, and would have expected that to be a Q2 win - but it's just a Q3.
Holy sheet- i didn’t know they looked at past seasons as a factor. Thats ridiculous
If NU and UNC both get into the tournament, who is more likely to win a game?
Until we get that historic monkey off our back, we aren’t going to get any benefit of the doubt.
I could see us maybe getting a 7 if we hit 21. Probably need more than that for a 6 or lower. But 21 wins would put us at around 7-7 or 8-6 (depends on other teams and how we get to 21 total wins) in quad 1 wins, that pretty impressive. Not sure 21 would be a lock for a 7 seed, but I could see it.
While the NET itself doesn't include preseason rankings, other widely used metrics (like KenPom and Sagarin) do. These influence perceptions and often shape early-season schedules, which in turn affect NET rankings.
Teams like North Carolina often start the year highly ranked in other predictive metrics, leading to stronger initial positioning.
Some of that might depend on whether the games at Northwestern and Penn State would hold up as Quad 1 wins. Have to win them first, obviously. But assuming NU wins those games, it would be great if NW and Penn State could stop the bleeding against some other teams.
It seems like, from memory, if you’re at least .500ish overall and in a major conference your home losses are considered a quad 1 wins for the opposing team. Michigan, Maryland and @ Ohio st are pretty much locks as quad 1s. Like you said really depends on how NW and PSU do down the stretch. At 21 wins I projected Maryland, Michigan and OSU squad 1s and one of NW/PSU being a quad 1. You go 3-1 in those quad 1 that would put us at 8-7 in quad 1 wins. Also iowa could potentially be a quad 1 if the sqwaks go on a run down the stretch, but that’s probably a long shot.
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