9/27/2023 - Financial Market Temperature Check
- Thread starter dsmalls3
- Start date
I would rather have a Ukrainian flag outside my door than a Russian flag.
We are 11th in terms of total aid to Ukraine per GDP. Not surprisingly, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have spots 1–4.
We are 11th in terms of total aid to Ukraine per GDP. Not surprisingly, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have spots 1–4.
Potatoe....potato
How bout NEITHER!!! Like Ukraine could actually win this anyway.
It's always "Different this time" until it's not. This 'its different this time' group has control of the narrative right now and has 'modified' its message to 'Recency Bias' which is the same freakin' thing. US economy is in a soft landing as we sit here today, but the real question is whether or not it can be contained....newsflash: It can't and it's not different this time. Hard landing just hasn't arrived yet, but it will.
The inflation last year was principally caused by the Fed acting as a 'spender of last resort' as opposed to a 'lender of last resort'. The fed enabled the gov. to handout stimmi's directly to households who spent the money on things like boats, cars, remodeled kitchens, rental units, TV's etc. The 'leftover excess savings' is basically gone and spent - and with it goes away inflation. Inflation set to melt in 2024 as the shelter component which is and has been deflating real time feeds into the CPI/PCE numbers with a 9-12 month lag. It's already baked into the cake.
Because banks act as an intermediary, the Fed will be pushing on a string when it tries to stimulate the US economy in a similar fashion to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in the late '00s and early '10's....in other words, there is very little the Fed can do to stimulate during the next down turn. This is also why the US economy went through a decade of <2% growth in the aftermath of the GFC. What was different this time (and could be different next time) is the government put cash directly into the hands of households and bypassed the financial system. The Fed basically just acted as an enabler to the federal government in handing out stimmis.
Inflation does not follow wages - hard stop, wages follow inflation - and as inflation comes down hard in 2024 wages will fall with it. The standard of living is down nearly 3% over the past few years and it's not coming back - sorry. Fade all the talking heads feeding the bs about the strong jobs market being such a great indicator of a healthy economy - jobs are a lagging indicator and won't fall until the economy is already waist deep into a recession. Seriously......the lack of any historical perspective is mind-numbing.
Clean energy does not boost economic growth - it's a factor of production which is more expensive and less reliable. It subtracts from the potential growth of the economy.
The depth and duration of the inverted yield curve, the outright decline in M2, the coming collapse in velocity, increased reliance on cards, massive uptick in delinquencies, massive uptick in underwriting standards and falling demand in the face of reduced standard of living forces households to decrease purchases on discretionary items as essentials eat up more and more of the paycheck.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
You can’t a have a small economy and give more to fight a dictators aggression than a country with a large economy. Sport..,
With all due respect, Ukraine doesn’t have to win. They just have to kick Russia out of the land they took from them. Given enough time, enough artillery, and enough planes, they just may do that. After all, without many planes or artillery, they took back Kherson, stopped the Russians short of Kiev, and took back the land north of Kiev. And if they get ATACMS, there’s gonna be a lot of hungry Russian soldiers in Crimea, without prospects for resupply.
None. But for over 100 years this country under Republicans and Democrats has helped countries that were invaded by dictators/autocrats. Why shouldn’t we now?
We should be helping Americans in Maui over corrupt Ukraine ..sucks you value European lives over Americans.
Don’t ya think over 100 billion is enough? Or just keep growing our debt? Hey it grew $1 trillion over the past 90 days so that’s super sweet
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CNN Sept.21, 2023------So far, Congress has approved about $113 billion in aid to Ukraine, according to calculations by the US State Department Office of Inspector General and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
That includes more than $62 billion intended to go through the Pentagon and more than $46 billion intended to go through the Department of State and the US Agency for International Development.
That includes more than $62 billion intended to go through the Pentagon and more than $46 billion intended to go through the Department of State and the US Agency for International Development.
@Jaemekon - a poster on here needs some education on the Ukrainian leaders…
I agree with you that Biden has been spending too much money. It’s inflationary and we could’ve recovered from the Covid shut down with far less.
I agree we need to help the people in Maui. We are.
But the money we are spending to stop Putin and to weaken his ability to cause chaos without losing American lives is a bargain. Roosevelt helped Britain, Truman and Eisenhower helped South Korea, Carter and Reagan helped Afghanistan. So why shouldn't we do it now?
I agree we need to help the people in Maui. We are.
But the money we are spending to stop Putin and to weaken his ability to cause chaos without losing American lives is a bargain. Roosevelt helped Britain, Truman and Eisenhower helped South Korea, Carter and Reagan helped Afghanistan. So why shouldn't we do it now?
Ummmmm....THAT WOULD BE A WIN. AS IN...WINNING./WON ( which will not happen). They have no illusion of occupying Moscow. They just want their land back. So they ....(wait for it)....WILL LOSE, and do it with our money. Fvck that.
Just watch the JPM collar for short-medium term action in the S&P. For instance, we are moving toward the 4200 ES level as quarter end nears, which coincides with the bottom of the JPM collar. Wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 3850-3900 by year end, but I'll be watching where they roll the collar for clues.
Uh I always forget, bears are furry and cute so that’s the good one right? I’m not fond of bulls… not cuddly at all so they’re bad right?
They already won. Russia was still "feared" or at the very least made other countries worry about them. That is all gone now.
Germany won't but Poland would be happy to finish them off and it is clear that the Polish army would ruin Russia in a few months. Russia can't even invade as far as they want because that will just activate Poland and then it is really over. This has turned into a bigger "upset" than when we beat the shit out of England.
Russia has to hope for some "miracle" now, which can't and won't happen, they are now the laughing stock of the world, a once proud strong country, that let everyone see they were stuck in the late 80's.
The stock market may be the least of our worries. No one seems to talk about the death of the petro dollar when that comes home to roost and it will hold on
America would be stuck with lots of extra dollars that would no longer be in demand. Those dollars would quickly return to the U.S., which would lead to massive inflation. Yikes!
Since 1986, US dollar vs other currencies.America would be stuck with lots of extra dollars that would no longer be in demand. Those dollars would quickly return to the U.S., which would lead to massive inflation. Yikes!
High, 122
Low, 72
Today, 106
chart
"The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six others, rose 0.4% Wednesday to trade near 106.70, after hitting its highest intraday level since Nov. 30.
“After rising for 10 consecutive weeks, the dollar index is on course to add one more weekly gain on top of that this week. There’s no fresh news behind its latest gains. Yet there has also been no macro reason for the dollar rally to end, apart from the fact it is getting a bit overstretched in the short-term outlook,” Razaqzada said.
It isn’t a surprise that gold has fallen below the $1,900-an-ounce threshold, said Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money. It’s more remarkable that gold held up as long as it did, he argued in a Wednesday note."
9/27/23 article
True.. and the Yen is getting crushed against the dollar. I wouldn’t be surprised if Japan starts selling off their US treasure holdings to increase their usd cash position
Ahh the old “We’ve done it in the past so that makes it right” How progressive. Do you still own slaves?
sorry to respond to you, not necessarily directed at you.
for those of y'all who don't currently have a slave of your own, know that now is the time to acquire. we have a massive supply coming through daily, and prices are unbeatable.
now is the time to acquire a low wage worker of your own.
The stock market is highly manipulated. Saudi Arabia joined the BRICS the world will dump the dollar only matter of time
I guess I forgot about Clinton and Kosovo. Sorry. Even most of the folks on stage last night are in favor of helping Ukraine. So what’s the problem? That we’re having to pay about 20 extra bucks per tank to help save a sovereign country against a traditional enemy? And for those who say we should be sucking up to Russia to counterbalance China, What do you think happens to Taiwan if we abandon Ukraine?
I don't think so. The US$ remains the world's reserve currency not due to any great love for the US but because it is by far the most stable option.
Financial markets love stability. BRICS is anything but stable. Maybe someday a world basket of currencies will take over as the reserve currency, but the US$ would still be tremendously overweighted.
Put @61bigredfan down for 400 of ‘em! He’s got a political party to align with 😉
This is not true. Saudia Arabia needs a security guarantee in the region to counterbalance Iran. They used to curry favor with the US, but since we have become energy independent, we really don’t need them for oil and we could give a shit about protecting their interests. This makes them feel insecure, so they have been buying refineries and shipping more oil to China who is energy insecure. The decision to pay in yuan is political, and not based on economics. If the Saudis want F35s and the expertise to operate the equipment, theyll keep their mouths shut. Where else will they get military hardware? France, Great Britain? 😂
Big bulk/Creighton discount there I assume. Always knew my wife’s tuition money was going somewhere…Ironically, she’s black.
Ukraine still has a chance. Russia already got beat by making NATO popular again and increasing it's ranks.
I guess I don’t understand why every president since world war 2 Has supported countries fighting against Russian aggression, but we’re supposed to let this one pass? The Soviet Afghan war lasted 10 years before the Russians, mostly due to our support, left. This conflict has lasted a little over 18 months. Why abandon Ukraine now? Why help Russia by doing so?
My favorite term whiney workers use is "slave wages".
LOLOL!! We're such a spoiled society.
In the end, it no longer matters. Russia is done, a total fraud of what they once were. It is shocking how far they fell and all because they let the world see how weak they are and how behind the times they are.
Right now, Europe is getting crushed with Inflation, as is just about every other country besides the US. As long as they hold these rates or bump them slightly (if they do) we are exporting inflation to the rest of the world.
We are seeing some softness in some real estate markets, but there is the very real potential for inflation to come back and double the prices of things again. Right now, that is not happening, it's being pushed overseas, but the long term reality is we have printed too much money and have too much debt, and it must be inflated away.
So short term, it's being offloaded to the the rest of the globe, but longer term, you're going to see the prices of things double again, and that time horizon is maybe 3-5 years. Unless the currency collapses altogether, which likely won't happen.
If you are into crypto, I will give you a little tip.. buy some Bitcoin Cash and some Tron.. both are quietly pumping with Tron having a tremendous amount of upside.
Keep your money in assets as much as you can because Inflation is the only way out of the debt mess.
We are seeing some softness in some real estate markets, but there is the very real potential for inflation to come back and double the prices of things again. Right now, that is not happening, it's being pushed overseas, but the long term reality is we have printed too much money and have too much debt, and it must be inflated away.
So short term, it's being offloaded to the the rest of the globe, but longer term, you're going to see the prices of things double again, and that time horizon is maybe 3-5 years. Unless the currency collapses altogether, which likely won't happen.
If you are into crypto, I will give you a little tip.. buy some Bitcoin Cash and some Tron.. both are quietly pumping with Tron having a tremendous amount of upside.
Keep your money in assets as much as you can because Inflation is the only way out of the debt mess.
