9/27/2023 - Financial Market Temperature Check

[dsmalls3]

Yo,

Interest rates seem stern from Fed, S&P down 1.17% on the day...

What is everybody's read on the markets in the next 6-24 months?

For those in/close to retirement, are you locking in income assets, or staying bullish on growth?

Let's see some macro forecast...I have a very strong opinion I provide my 67 year old Dad - he doesn't listen - and a fun spin on risk-on asset allocation.

Les go!!

 

[king_kong_]

sir, this is a Wendy's

 

[meo1960]

I'm expecting the crypto market to turn bullish before the end of the year.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

We are in for a nasty recession… soft landings are myths.

Most everything is overvalued.

 

[cruelhalo]

The world is going to end.

 

[SuperBigFan]

Right now, every husband that has an annoying wife that planned a horrible "vacation" with the family to some lame ass national forest is jumping for joy in hopes of a government shut down.

"Honey, my gosh, horrible news! The national parks are closed...I know I know, now we can't to stare at trees with the kids, I know, I know, we will just have to try and plan that again once this darn government opens things back up"

 

[leodisflowers]

Right now, every husband that has an annoying wife that planned a horrible "vacation" with the family to some lame ass national forest is jumping for joy in hopes of a government shut down.

"Honey, my gosh, horrible news! The national parks are closed...I know I know, now we can't to stare at trees with the kids, I know, I know, we will just have to try and plan that again once this darn government opens things back up"

Ukraine is open for business

 

[SuperBigFan]

Ukraine is open for business

National parks with trees, streams and a big ass blown up tank. Ha

 

[WHCSC]

I'm fine as long as the coffee cans buried in my yard don't rust through

 

[TruHusker]

I just had my broker put my roughly 30% fixed income into individual bonds laddered at 5 years. Should yield around 5%.

This economy is built on debt and cannot be sustained. Brazil and others have already gone digital. I expect our government to go CBDC next spring eventually saying goodbye to the dollar. Inflation is getting worse, not better and will continue.

The Fed's only have one tool and it's interest rates. I haven't had debt for many years and even with some good deals out there in real estate and more to come, it is very dangerous.

Get to the point you don't have to "worry" about your investments because it won't be pretty. Feel sorry for the younger crowd with families.

Just one man's opinion.

 

[SeaOfRed75]

Ever seen Colin Furze on YouTube?

I have bunkers like his under my property, 25,000 rounds of ammo, 100 years worth of my Patriot supply meals and 400 gallons of potable water

Oh that and I'm heavily invested in frozen concentrate orange juice futures.

 

[SickOfPractice]

This thread is obviously code & used for sharing intel with Colorado's next opponent.

 

[ivan brunetti]

I'm expecting the crypto market to turn bullish before the end of the year.

I am not.

 

[scarletred]

Yo,

Interest rates seem stern from Fed, S&P down 1.17% on the day...

What is everybody's read on the markets in the next 6-24 months?

For those in/close to retirement, are you locking in income assets, or staying bullish on growth?

Let's see some macro forecast...I have a very strong opinion I provide my 67 year old Dad - he doesn't listen - and a fun spin on risk-on asset allocation.

Les go!!

Take this $&it somewhere else.

 

[SomedayHusker]

We are in for a nasty recession… soft landings are myths.

Most everything is overvalued.

Things will only be overvalued when demand drops/money/jobs go away. I think they’ll have to keep raising rates to do that. Every homeowner and their mother refinanced or bought at near zero interest rates and now their money is earning 4-5% minimum and sitting pretty. No one is letting that loan rate go if they can help it. No one is selling. People are settling into their post-Covid lives after the great migration.

I think inflation continues and that will lift markets/prices and continue to damage mainly the lower class that doesn’t own anything. Recession probably eventually but not within a year, too many people are expecting it this time.

Short term, I think the /ES could bounce off the uptrend line here around 4300 from the October 2022 lows. If it fails the next stop will be 4150. A stock I really like for the next few years is GEO (government contracted prison company)

 

[SuperBigFan]

Things will only be overvalued when demand drops/money/jobs go away. I think they’ll have to keep raising rates to do that. Every homeowner and their mother refinanced or bought at near zero interest rates and now their money is earning 4-5% minimum and sitting pretty. No one is letting that loan rate go if they can help it. No one is selling. People are settling into their post-Covid lives after the great migration.

I think inflation continues and that will lift markets/prices and continue to damage mainly the lower class that doesn’t own anything. Recession probably eventually but not within a year, too many people are expecting it this time.

Short term, I think the /ES could bounce off the uptrend line here around 4300 from the October 2022 lows. If it fails the next stop will be 4150. A stock I really like for the next few years is GEO (government contracted prison company)

I refied at 2%

And I love looking at houses, it is amazing how a year ago they were selling in 24 hours. Now I see a ton of "Priced Dropped 10,000" and things like that.

Homes are so overvalued right now, then add in 6-7% rates. Bad deal

 

[SomedayHusker]

I refied at 2%

And I love looking at houses, it is amazing how a year ago they were selling in 24 hours. Now I see a ton of "Priced Dropped 10,000" and things like that.

Homes are so overvalued right now, then add in 6-7% rates. Bad deal

Yep they are pulling back a bit right now which is also a seasonal thing but not close to recession territory. I’m not insanely confident on my position either. Interesting times for sure and I also love looking at Zillow everyday to try to get the pulse

 

[dinglefritz]

We are in for a nasty recession… soft landings are myths.

Most everything is overvalued.

Very scary times. Inflation is destroying people financially. Ag real estate has been somewhat of a safe harbor but that’s not available to most. The stock market is a house of cards.

 

[TruHusker]

What caused homes to get overvalued? I would submit the cheap interest rates were part of that. The high interest rates are now bringing prices down. When rates were low, money was cheap and that drove up the competition and prices soared to what we are seeing now.

I was on a video conference about investments and they showed an historical interest rate chart and I didn't remember we had so many years of near 0 money and just now we are approaching the average, still just a hair below. Some of us on here remember the 80's when 10% was a bargain.

There are reports, this comes from Kennedy Jr that three large invest firms are the largest buyers of homes/real estate in the US. This fits into the narrative of eliminating private ownership of property. Drive the prices up, force people into debt and a wider spread between the haves and have nots and then slam it so the prices drop and are affordable to take over.

People are raiding their 401K's at an alarming rate. Credit cards are maxed out and people are running out of places to turn to get cash. Reality is reality, we like to hide from it but can't really.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Things will only be overvalued when demand drops/money/jobs go away. I think they’ll have to keep raising rates to do that. Every homeowner and their mother refinanced or bought at near zero interest rates and now their money is earning 4-5% minimum and sitting pretty. No one is letting that loan rate go if they can help it. No one is selling. People are settling into their post-Covid lives after the great migration.

I think inflation continues and that will lift markets/prices and continue to damage mainly the lower class that doesn’t own anything. Recession probably eventually but not within a year, too many people are expecting it this time.

Short term, I think the /ES could bounce off the uptrend line here around 4300 from the October 2022 lows. If it fails the next stop will be 4150. A stock I really like for the next few years is GEO (government contracted prison company)

Housing demand is dead bro..Credit card debt, auto defaults and people giving up their 3% mortgages for 8% to tap into their home equity is growing at an alarming rate. Oh and savings rates are WAY down.. This is all while unemployment is only at 3.8 %.. what happens when unemployment rises to 5%+ over the next 12 months?

GDI (better indicator of recession has already flashed negative). Yield curves have been massively inverted..

We are in for a nasty recession.

 

[dinglefritz]

What caused homes to get overvalued? I would submit the cheap interest rates were part of that. The high interest rates are now bringing prices down. When rates were low, money was cheap and that drove up the competition and prices soared to what we are seeing now.

I was on a video conference about investments and they showed an historical interest rate chart and I didn't remember we had so many years of near 0 money and just now we are approaching the average, still just a hair below. Some of us on here remember the 80's when 10% was a bargain.

There are reports, this comes from Kennedy Jr that three large invest firms are the largest buyers of homes/real estate in the US. This fits into the narrative of eliminating private ownership of property. Drive the prices up, force people into debt and a wider spread between the haves and have nots and then slam it so the prices drop and are affordable to take over.

People are raiding their 401K's at an alarming rate. Credit cards are maxed out and people are running out of places to turn to get cash. Reality is reality, we like to hide from it but can't really.

According to supply and demand, homes aren’t probably as over valued as some think. We’ve got a severe shortage of 3 bedroom family homes that is shutting out young couples from home ownership and new construction inflation costs makes them unaffordable. IF you were out of the real estate market during COVID you lost out.

Our economy is a mess. We just had our house inspected by the county for property tax appraisal. I’m expecting a 50% increase in our property tax bill. The runaway stimulus packages have killed retirees and those near retirement. I expect many retirees will have to sell their homes and move in to apartments. We’re already seeing it in our area.

 

[ivan brunetti]

I refied at 2%

And I love looking at houses, it is amazing how a year ago they were selling in 24 hours. Now I see a ton of "Priced Dropped 10,000" and things like that.

Homes are so overvalued right now, then add in 6-7% rates. Bad deal

I see a lot of homes purchased ten years ago for $400K now priced at $1 million, and sellers crying over having to drop their asking price by $10K. Meanwhile, office space is empty and no one seems willing to transform commercial space into condos.

The 2008 bubble that popped re-inflated almost immediately. People have too many of their eggs in a non-liquid asset.

 

[dinglefritz]

Housing demand is dead bro..Credit card debt, auto defaults and people giving up their 3% mortgages for 8% to tap into their home equity is growing at an alarming rate. Oh and savings rates are WAY down.. This is all while unemployment is only at 3.8 %.. what happens when unemployment rises to 5%+ over the next 12 months?

GDI (better indicator of recession has already flashed negative). Yield curves have been massively inverted..

We are in for a nasty recession.

I’m afraid you’re right.

 

[Iroh2]

we were overdue for a pullback with too much money in the system…. Now that we went through a reduction in money printing everything is upset. That being said the economy is still hot with unemployment being crazy low. Inflation is coming down but things are still quite pricey but wages have gone up quite a bit too. To the OP, stay the course as the market still the best return over the long run unless you need your money right now…. Good time to buy…

 

[ivan brunetti]

Housing demand is dead bro..Credit card debt, auto defaults and people giving up their 3% mortgages for 8% to tap into their home equity is growing at an alarming rate. Oh and savings rates are WAY down.. This is all while unemployment is only at 3.8 %.. what happens when unemployment rises to 5%+ over the next 12 months?

GDI (better indicator of recession has already flashed negative). Yield curves have been massively inverted..

We are in for a nasty recession.

I don't know about a nasty recession. Most of the problem was due to Covid chain supply issues, and those are still clearing up. I don't see unemployment rising to 5% over the next 12 months. Jobs are still sitting unfilled.

 

[dinglefritz]

I see a lot of homes purchased ten years ago for $400K now priced at $1 million, and sellers crying over having to drop their asking price by $10K. Meanwhile, office space is empty and no one seems willing to transform commercial space into condos.

The 2008 bubble that popped re-inflated almost immediately. People have too many of their eggs in a non-liquid asset.

The reason that’s a problem is inflation. People need extra cash just to buy groceries. My car insurance has gone up 50% due to the rising cost of body repairs AND the increase in car theft.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Don’t forget student load repayment starts soon. I read the average borrower owes $400 a month.. can’t be good for companies like door dash

 

[HuskerDrew]

I don’t need to get into the weeds to sum it up, but the way this country works, is it will be a disaster in the future unless short term rates get below long term rates.
Right now we don’t feel the effects of the high rates so much because most people had already refinanced their mortgage and had Covid money and had not been paying student loans and rent.
Now that these fvcking deadbeats supposedly have to start paying back loans and can be evicted we can get back to more normal equilibrium. Problem is that cvnt old rag so called President made it so that people have a year before non payment of student loans will get reported to credit agencies. So expect a boatload of losers to not pay student loans for another year, even though the interest is now starting to accrue again.
Anyway, I like money markets at 5.3% yield right now. I do think the Fed cuts rates in 2024 at some point and probably a good 200 bps at least. They never get it right because they are fvking morons.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I don't know about a nasty recession. Most of the problem was due to Covid chain supply issues, and those are still clearing up. I don't see unemployment rising to 5% over the next 12 months. Jobs are still sitting unfilled.

noted

 

[JabroniBlvd]

Home principal and interest payments are literally double compared to if you bought or built pre-covid.

Because interest rates have more than doubled and home prices are up like 25% in most areas.

 

[dinglefritz]

I don't know about a nasty recession. Most of the problem was due to Covid chain supply issues, and those are still clearing up. I don't see unemployment rising to 5% over the next 12 months. Jobs are still sitting unfilled.

The 4-5 million people who have entered the country illegally are going to affect employment numbers. No doubt DC will pass something so they can get jobs.

 

[inWV]

The United States is a wealthy country and thus its citizens have a lot of buying power. If there are a lot of buyers for things, people will need to be employed to buy them. So there is competition for employees, thus employees have better bargaining power within the market. The US could have even more employees (immigration), and thus the potential for an even larger, more prosperous economy.

 

[RBigredMax]

The markets are a lot like Iowa’s offense …

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I don’t need to get into the weeds to sum it up, but the way this country works, is it will be a disaster in the future unless short term rates get below long term rates.
Right now we don’t feel the effects of the high rates so much because most people had already refinanced their mortgage and had Covid money and had not been paying student loans and rent.
Now that these fvcking deadbeats supposedly have to start paying back loans and can be evicted we can get back to more normal equilibrium. Problem is that cvnt old rag so called President made it so that people have a year before non payment of student loans will get reported to credit agencies. So expect a boatload of losers to not pay student loans for another year, even though the interest is now starting to accrue again.
Anyway, I like money markets at 5.3% yield right now. I do think the Fed cuts rates in 2024 at some point and probably a good 200 bps at least. They never get it right because they are fvking morons.

Not many people are taking the yield inversion seriously.. not a fan of the “this time is different” philosophy

 

[inWV]

The 4-5 million people who have entered the country illegally are going to affect employment numbers. No doubt DC will pass something so they can get jobs.

Many of them are already busy providing the engine of economic growth, plus working for folks who don't like to clean their own house, plus slaughterhouses, ag work crews, janitorial and lawn services. All in all, a pretty important group of humans to the economic health of the US.

 

[ivan brunetti]

The 4-5 million people who have entered the country illegally are going to affect employment numbers. No doubt DC will pass something so they can get jobs.

People are always entering prosperous countries. And most are sent back.

This isn't anything new.

 

[drubendall]

Don’t forget student load repayment starts soon. I read the average borrower owes $400 a month.. can’t be good for companies like door dash

That was funny. Seems young peeps set aside too much of their discretionary income for dining out/food delivery.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

 

[WHCSC]

Many of them are already busy providing the engine of economic growth, plus working for folks who don't like to clean their own house, plus slaughterhouses, ag work crews, janitorial and lawn services. All in all, a pretty important group of humans to the economic health of the US.

Do they pay taxes?

 

[drubendall]

Many of them are already busy providing the engine of economic growth, plus working for folks who don't like to clean their own house, plus slaughterhouses, ag work crews, janitorial and lawn services. All in all, a pretty important group of humans to the economic health of the US.

This is accurate. I see it first hand, even health care services such as nursing homes. Dominated by immigrants in many places (and they do a good job / not criticizing them)