2021 ESPN Preseason FPI

HuskerHusaria

Senior
Jun 4, 2017
2,870
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Lincoln, NE
Iowa State has everybody returning plus their top OL Downing coming back off injury. Probably the top TE combination, top running back in college football. Plus a coach that is very solid. They feel they can win the Big 12
Fair enough. 😀 That is what the season is for!
 

NYC-Husker

Walk On
Mar 8, 2007
302
316
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Wow, not much love for Nebraska. Can't say I'm surprised, but hoping this is the year the team can make a big jump.
 

B1G RED RULES

Senior
Sep 7, 2013
2,878
2,329
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Iowa State has everybody returning plus their top OL Downing coming back off injury. Probably the top TE combination, top running back in college football. Plus a coach that is very solid. They feel they can win the Big 12
I honestly would like to see Matt Campbell stay for the long-haul and see what good coaching can do at a program like Iowa State. We always hear excuses that say schools with small budgets that are away from recruiting hotbeds can never be competitive. It’s interesting to see what good coaching and development can do.
 
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Cornicator

Nebraska Legend
Gold Member
Feb 27, 2009
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Keep this in mind, and its straight from ESPN:

based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The preseason ESPN FPI is one of the most useless rankings out there for one big reason:

The FPI places most of its emphasis on games played, the team's performance during the game, and then how future results can be predicted.

By week two, the FPI changes dramatically.


The ESPN SP+ Ranking factors is a better measurable metric for Preseason rankings because it factors in returning production and even accounts for Transfer Additions.


. Returning production. As I wrote last week, I have updated rosters as much as possible to account for transfers, graduation and the announced return of many 2020 seniors. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production now make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. Returning production aims to tell us what kind of talent and experience a team is returning. Recruiting rankings inform us of the caliber of the team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. They make up about one-quarter of the projections formula. This piece is determined not only by the most recent recruiting class but also, in diminishing fashion, the last three classes as well.

3. Recent history. Last year's ratings are a huge piece of the puzzle, but using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.


Overall SP+ Rankings​

TEAMRATINGOFFENSEDEFENSE
1. Alabama30.744.2 (4)13.5 (4)
2. Clemson28.640.9 (9)12.2 (3)
3. Oklahoma28.046.6 (1)18.6 (16)
4. Ohio St.25.046.5 (2)21.5 (38)
5. Oregon24.241.0 (8)16.9 (9)
6. Georgia24.139.7 (15)15.6 (5)
7. Iowa St.23.141.5 (6)18.4 (15)
8. Miami22.740.5 (11)17.8 (13)
9. Wisconsin22.434.7 (36)12.2 (2)
10. N. Carolina21.744.8 (3)23.1 (43)
11. Washington21.239.8 (14)18.6 (17)
12. Florida21.241.5 (5)20.4 (29)
13. Texas A&M20.937.3 (21)16.4 (8)
14. Penn St.20.536.2 (29)15.7 (6)
15. Cincinnati20.036.0 (30)15.9 (7)
16. Iowa19.731.4 (51)11.7 (1)
17. USC19.639.9 (13)20.3 (28)
18. Arizona St.18.037.1 (23)19.1 (21)
19. Utah17.734.7 (35)17.0 (10)
20. Texas17.638.5 (18)20.9 (34)
21. UCLA15.641.2 (7)25.6 (58)
22. Louisiana15.336.2 (26)21.0 (35)
23. Michigan15.335.3 (32)20.1 (27)
24. Ole Miss14.940.6 (10)25.7 (59)
25. Notre Dame14.834.8 (34)20.1 (26)
26. LSU14.638.0 (19)23.3 (45)
27. Indiana14.434.8 (33)20.4 (31)
28. Auburn14.233.5 (38)19.3 (22)
29. Oklahoma St.14.131.4 (49)17.4 (12)
30. Nebraska14.032.7 (43)18.7 (19)
31. Minnesota13.637.4 (20)23.8 (48)
32. Maryland12.332.3 (45)20.0 (25)
33. TCU12.131.1 (53)19.0 (20)
34. W. Virginia12.029.1 (67)17.1 (11)
35. App. St.11.230.9 (54)19.7 (24)
36. Va. Tech11.036.2 (27)25.2 (57)
37. Coastal Caro.10.436.2 (28)25.8 (60)
38. UCF10.038.7 (17)28.7 (74)
39. Boise St.9.333.4 (39)24.0 (50)
40. Purdue8.935.7 (31)26.9 (63)




Other Husker opponents:

Michigan State - #59
Northwestern - #75
Buffalo - #77
Illinois - #83


SE LA - Not ranked




Biggest Disparity between FPI and SP+=

1. Texas Tech - ranked 21st in FPI and 70th in SP+
2. Miss State - ranked 8th in FPI and 46th in SP+
3. Northwestern - ranked 30th in FPI and 75th in SP+
4. UCLA - ranked 62nd in FPI and 21st in SP+
5. Northwestern - ranked 30th in FPI and 75th in SP+
6 Oklahoma State - Ranked 9th in FPI and 29th in the SP+
7. Tulane - Ranked 36th in FPI and 66th in SP+
8. Ball State - Ranked 45th in FPI and 71st in SP+


FPI also has Seven Big 12 teams ranked in their top 25. Sp+ has three Big 12 teams ranked in their top 25.
 

vs540husker

Defensive Coordinator
Oct 3, 2004
7,944
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Honestly, 0.8% chance for Nebraska to win the conference seems high. I’d knock it down to 0.02%.
 

SWIowahawks

Junior
Sep 2, 2006
1,590
1,660
113
Honestly, 0.8% chance for Nebraska to win the conference seems high. I’d knock it down to 0.02%.
I may do what I did with NW last year and put a small amount on Nebraska to win the conference. Then hedge if they win the division. Even a slightly better offense could get Nebraska to Indy.
 
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CeMar_Clone

Newbie
Jul 20, 2001
13
17
3
No way on Iowa St. If it comes down to it, Ohio St's resume will get em in.
Really? OSU resume for 2021 is something to brag about? On the current FPI rating, 8 of ISU's 13 games are against the top 25 FPI. Ohio States 13 game slate only has 4 top 25 FPI teams, assuming that OSU plays Iowa in the Big 10 championship. Hell, at # 23, Iowa barely even makes it into the top half of ISU's slate this fall.
 

HuskerHusaria

Senior
Jun 4, 2017
2,870
2,014
113
Lincoln, NE
Really? OSU resume for 2021 is something to brag about? On the current FPI rating, 8 of ISU's 13 games are against the top 25 FPI. Ohio States 13 game slate only has 4 top 25 FPI teams, assuming that OSU plays Iowa in the Big 10 championship. Hell, at # 23, Iowa barely even makes it into the top half of ISU's slate this fall.
You talk like ISU is some sort of power school - spoiler alert they're not.