Was looking over MR last signed class. Of all of MR classes this one seemed the most mentally weak. Of the 18 signed 10 left the team. Only 1 is starting and only 6 are on the 2 deep. Next year I wonder how many of those get passed up.
2017 class
- Thread starter husker2612
- Start date
Our 2018 class has imploded pretty fast as well. Let’s hope ‘19 and ‘20 pan out.
Shows how poor of an indicator the recruiting services can be. That class was ranked first in big 10 west. It seems a team like nebraska with such a high following of recruiting gets inflated rankings. So often players are adjusted post nebraska commitment.
I have never seen a good transition class. I’m sure there are a few. But almost every transition class turns out to be a train wreck.
dude most of those higher ranked guys transferred out and yes, a few where busts. Take time and look into it a little bit first. And rarely did our guys get bumped in rankings after they committed. With Frost we have seen it happen, those guys have a eye for talent. But again, go back and look at the 2016, 2017 and 2018 classes and then look how many transfers happened and take a look at their rankings. Most of our top guys left the team. It was the 3 star guys and walk ons that remained while guys like Keshawn Johnson Jr, Tr Gebbia,T Lindsay, A Roberts, E Blades, Guy Thomas and so on and so on transferred out or didn’t make it at all.
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How are all those 4 star players doing at the school they transferred too? We know key loves weed so that’s one none factor.
It's interesting because it looks like it's the 3rd or 4th full recruiting class when things take off.
Look at Callahan, he was bringing in a really great 2008 class (4th full class) until the wheels fall off. Riley's 2018 class (3rd full class) was going to be a pretty darn good one (guys who decommitted are seeing playing time USC, Ohio St, LSU, OU, ULL) if the season didn't tank like it did.
Shoot even Pelini, who hated recruiting, in his 3rd full year had a very solid 2011 class until he couldn't keep any of them.
IF Frost were to get fired after next season, what would we be saying about his recruiting classes at Nebraska? We wouldn't have too kind of words, but it wouldn't be fair to Frost because he didn't have enough time to really get his recruiting going.
I've said this before on here 2 years ago when I started to not care anymore about recruiting. It seems almost every highly regarded player we sign turns out to be a liability and/or bust.
How these sites work is kind of funny actually. A commitment to Nebraska gets you a boost if you are 5.5 or less, You will end up being 5.6-5.8 by the time recruiting season is over. If the same player that was 5.5 or lower signs with Iowa or Wisconsin they will get no boost, maybe a minor one to 5.6 or 5.7.
Alabama, Texas, LSU, USC, Florida, Florida State ect… They get boosts from a 5.6 to a top 200 player. There is obviously give and take with this, but overall the name of the school and the location of the player usually gets the rating. The difference between the best WDE in the country and Blaise Gunnerson is not as big as the 6.1 rating to 5.7 rating shows.
Blaise vs Sav'ell Smalls in the Oklahoma drill I got my money on Blaise. I like the players we got, and I want the ones that don't quit. Seems most of the highly rated 4/5* players are entitled whiners after they get here. Give me 3* Speilman over 4* Keyshawn Johnson every day of the week and twice on Saturday!
I can agree with that. The highly rated guys are probably use to getting and doing whatever they want. They have always been the best in their area. They have never really had to work just a little harder. Then they get to D1 football and they get pissed and quit when things don't comes as easy as it always has. They don't want to work to get better or earn their way.
Where the unnoticed 3 star kids have had to work their asses off competing against those 4 and 5 star kids in highschool. They know they have to work every single day. They know nothing will be just given to them. I will take those kids any and every single day.
Now granted I know in general you have to have some 4 and 5 star kids to compete on a consistent basis. I Also think you need a team filled with 70-80% of those 3 star work your ass off type players. They are the ones that help keep those 4 and 5 star kids grounded and on the right course.
no team has won the national title in the last ~ 15 years that didn’t have a roster that was > 50% 4 and 5 star recruits.
with some exceptions almost all the teams that have qualified for the college football playoffs have had rosters made up of more than half 4 and 5 star recruits.
this notion that you need 70-80% of your roster to be those hard working 3 stars to win big is simply false
Only Oregon in its prime Championship appearance years back in what, 11-13 were able to compete at that high of a level without top ten ranked recruiting classes. Thats what we like to think Frost is trying to do here knowing that we'll never recruit at that level in this internet social media age. But if we can consistently be within top 20 or hopefully top 15, we can stand a chance so long as theyre the right players to fit the systems.
Would you also prefer 3* guys like Alston and Graham over 5* guys like Chase Young and Micah Parsons?
Right, I guess I should have clarified. To win longer term and consistently like Bama and Ohio St or Neb of the 90s. Yes you need the majority of 4 and 5 star guys. People assume that Neb team of the 90s were made up of low level Neb kids with heart. That is not true. There was an article on it awhile back and basically they figured that most of the players on those 90s teams would have equaled 4 and 5 star guys today. Nebraska is not going to be able to recruit a team full of 4 and 5 star guys, at least not right now. First we need to get a team of 70- 80% of those hard working lower level guys. This will keep the 4 star guys we do get on the right path and keep them accountable and grounded. Hopefully this will eventually equate to wins and successful seasons. Once that type of winning mentality and culture is established and top recruits see that Nebraska is once again a top 10-15 program. I think we will starting seeing more of those 4 and 5 star classes. I think we need those passion and heart type players first to establish that winning culture and to do things the right way.
While that is MOSTLY true, there are definitely outliers. Look at Utah this year, on the brink of making the playoff. From 2015-2019 they have a rivals-ranked 38th best class on average over those years. Similar to Pelini's best years (back-to-back Big XII title appearances) the Utes heavily rely on their defense, which is being called 'nasty' by the media. The difference is Utah actually has some type of offense to go with it, whereas Nebraska had Tim Beck, Zac Lee and a freshman Martinez.
Or how about Sparty in '15? They averaged the 32nd best class from 2010-2014. Just get a favorable schedule and a team that knows its identity and plays hard, the wins will come.
I'm not saying I hope Nebraska can be like Michigan State and Utah. I argue for this point, because that's how I feel Nebraska gets back. That'd be great for Lincoln to get the riches of 4 and 5 stars, but first the Huskers have to show proof of sustaining success. And there are blueprints out there of how to do it without having the cream of the crop.
I see what he was getting at. Yes, a team like Utah or Mich St can have a good year or 2 or 3. But more often then not after a short time frame they fade back to a middle of the pack team. To consistently be good and win championships you have to have a team full of 4 and 5 star guys.
Sure I see, the point @jlb321 brought up makes sense for year over year success, thanks. Like you mention, the teams I brought up can have "special" seasons so to speak where the pieces fall into place. Point I was making is, you've got to have 1 or 2 of those "special" seasons before you should expect to be able to recruit top guys on a regular basis.
Good point. I think Utah will make the playoffs and get anhilated by Ohio State or LSU in the first round, because those teams have the jimmies and Joe's that Utah doesn't have.
A 4 star or 5 star player doesn't "bust" or wash out of the program with any more frequency than a 2 or 3 star.
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In general about 60% of 5 star kids will end up in the NFL . 20% of 4 star and only 5% of 3 Stars will. To have a solid team you need to have NFL level talent on your roster. Data suggests having a team full of 4 and 5 star guys will give much better odds to have a very good team.
But plenty are in the top 15 without those rosters on a yearly basis. I get wanting to be in the top 4 every year for the playoffs. I'd also like a billion dollars. Doesn't mean it is going to happen anytime soon. Before we run, we need to walk and be able to beat the Iowas, Wisc, Purdues, MNs, and Indianas of the world on a consistent basis.
And while your stats are really, really cool for recruiting classes and natties, you also left out a very important part of that stat: Outside of tOSU, every single one of those teams is in the southern part of the country. So given exactly 0 other coaches outside of tOSU program have figured out the recruiting angle, I'm willing to cut HCSF some slack here. I'll settle for winning the west every year and competing for B1G.
But who is consistently in the Top 15 without them? Sure Utah one year, MSU another, then Minnesota, then Baylor. But who does it consistently without top talent. Maybe Wisconsin?
You can't develop without recruiting, just like you can't recruit without developing, if you hope to be in the conversation every year.
So I went and looked at the final AP polls since 2011. Both Wisc and Stanford are regularly in the top 15 every year. Here are some others that have been there a number of times or had runs: Oklahoma State, Boise State, South Carolina, Michigan State, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri and pile of one-offs. I left out a number of schools like Baylor and TCU because they are in the south and in the top 15 almost every year.
The rest are certainly company I would expect NEB to be able to compete against given our normal recruiting over the last few years. Given that we can't develop talent at all here and lose large numbers from every class, it seems a moot point to worry about a top 5 recruiting class. This program needs stability more than anything else.
Sure I'd love to have a Callahan level recruiting class every year, but I'd be far more happy to develop (meaning bringing to the field in a meaningful way) what we have first.
