Big Ten football preview 2023: Will Michigan top Ohio State for 3-peat before expansion?
by Mitch Sherman and Austin Meek, The Athletic
Since Big Ten football teams last took the field, when Michigan and Ohio State lost in dramatic fashion on New Year’s Eve in the College Football Playoff semifinals, plenty has gone down in the conference.

Four new head coaches settled into place in this turbulent offseason. The latest change came with the July firing of Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern after accusations by former players of systemic hazing in the program. August brought the impending additions of Oregon and Washington to the Big Ten in 2024 with Pac-12 mates USC and UCLA.

Before they defect, another season awaits — with storylines abound this year.

WHAT'S NEW IN THE BIG TEN?

1. Michigan is the team to beat. For the first time since Ryan Day’s debut season, Ohio State isn’t the favorite to win the Big Ten. Michigan took over that mantle after trouncing the Buckeyes in Columbus and winning a second consecutive conference championship last year. The Wolverines have a loaded team, but Ohio State and Penn State stand in the way of a Michigan three-peat.

2. Welcome back, Luke Fickell. After going 57-18 in six seasons at Cincinnati, Fickell is back in the Big Ten as the head coach at Wisconsin. An offense synonymous with beefed-up offensive lines and bruising running backs is getting a makeover with SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai at quarterback and Air Raid disciple Phil Longo calling plays. It's a big change, but if all goes well Fickell's Badgers should contend in a wide-open Big Ten West.

3. Transfer QBs galore. Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern all have transfers who could emerge from preseason camp as starting quarterbacks. Of those transfer QBs, none is more intriguing than Cade McNamara, who led Michigan to the Orange Bowl in 2021 before losing the job to J.J. McCarthy last season. Now at Iowa, McNamara will try to breathe life into one of the worst offenses in the FBS and turn down the heat on coordinator Brian Ferentz.

4. The Matt Rhule era begins in Lincoln. Nebraska pulled off one of the biggest moves of the coaching carousel by landing Rhule after he was let go by the Carolina Panthers. After years of wandering in the college football wilderness, Nebraska fans are hoping Rhule is the man to lead the program back to prominence. Based on the buzz for Nebraska's Sept. 9 game against Deion Sanders and Colorado, you'd never know those teams finished a combined 5-19 last season.

5. Running backs reign. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards at Michigan. Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson at Ohio State. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen at Penn State. Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and Kaleb Johnson at Iowa. The Big Ten’s embarrassment of riches at running back makes this the conference to watch if you’re a run-game connoisseur.

New Big Ten Head Coaches


TEAM RANKINGS

Tier 1

Michigan
The buzz around Ann Arbor is that Michigan has its best chance to win a national championship since it last won one in 1997. The optimism stems from the return of All-America running back Blake Corum, the development of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the depth and experience of the offensive line and Michigan’s track record of producing NFL Draft picks on defense.

The Wolverines have dominated the Big Ten the past two years, but they still need to prove they can get over the hump in the CFP after losing to Georgia and TCU in the semifinals. As good as Michigan’s running game has been, the Wolverines realize they need to be more balanced. They also need to replace some key players up front and shore up a cornerback spot that remains up for grabs, but they have plenty of time to figure things out against a backloaded schedule.

Ohio State
For a team that came within a field goal of playing for a national championship, Ohio State enters this season with a lot to prove. Figuring out how to replace C.J. Stroud at quarterback and how to snap a two-game losing streak against Michigan are two items at the top of the list.

Once again, Ohio State should be one of the most talented teams in the country, led by star wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, running backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson, edge rusher J.T. Tuimoloau and cornerback Denzel Burke.

Whether the starting quarterback is Kyle McCord or Devin Brown, the offensive ceiling is sky-high. Defensively, the Buckeyes need to make strides in their second year under coordinator Jim Knowles. They gave up too many big plays a year ago and tied with Rutgers for eighth in the league in defensive yards per play.

Penn State
This looks like one of James Franklin’s best rosters, led by elite offensive tackle prospect Olu Fashanu, running back Nicholas Singleton, cornerback Kalen King and edge rusher Chop Robinson. If Penn State is going to remain in this upper echelon, it all comes down to Drew Allar, the five-star quarterback who’s in line to replace Sean Clifford.

Penn State hasn’t yet made the inevitable move of naming Allar the starter, but that hasn’t stopped fans from heaping expectations on him. He should benefit from an improved offensive line and the addition of Kent State transfer Dante Cephas at wide receiver.

After an 11-win season in 2022, the Nittany Lions have a shot to join the CFP first-timers’ club. To do that, they’d likely have to overtake Michigan or Ohio State, the two teams that beat them last year.

===============================

Tier 2

Wisconsin
Is this the best team in the West? On paper, Wisconsin looks like it.

Fickell scored big in the transfer portal with quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who threw for 3,524 yards and 33 touchdowns with 10 interceptions on 65-percent passing last year at SMU. The Badgers bring back top WRs Chimere Dike and Skyler Bell and did well in the portal, especially bolstering their receiving corps. Talented running back Braelon Allen also returns for new coordinator Phil Longo, who looks to stay focused on Wisconsin’s traditionally dominant running game while accelerating the tempo and implementing his version of the Air Raid.

Defensive coordinator Mike Tressel followed Fickell from Cincinnati, where the defensive play echoed Michigan State’s old groups that performed well in the Big Ten a decade ago. The Badgers must fill big holes at all levels on defense, and the loss of Jim Leonhard as the mastermind on D rates as significant.

But in this division, Wisconsin may have the fewest flaws. And the schedule sets up for a 5-0 start.

Iowa
No program presents more of a split personality than Iowa. Kirk Ferentz, the 68-year-old coach set to enter his 25th season in charge of the Hawkeyes, presides over a defense that rates among the best nationally and an offense that could not get out of its own way last season.

Gone is much of the defensive star power, but expectations remain high that coordinator Phil Parker's unit will again play a dominant brand.

Punter Tory Taylor is a game-changer. But the story here is the offense and coordinator Brian Ferentz, whose new contract requires Iowa to win seven games and score 25 points per game -- up 24 percent over last season. Michigan transfer Cade McNamara threw more than twice as many touchdowns passes in 2021 as Iowa quarterbacks last season. Running back Kaleb Johnson is ready for a breakout season if the O-line can get back to its typical form.

Anything less than a division title would rate as a disappointment.

Maryland
The return of quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa should position Maryland for a third consecutive bowl trip and what could be the Terrapins’ best season as a member of the Big Ten. How high they climb will depend on their play in the trenches, as the Terrapins gave up a league-high 43 sacks last season.

Maryland fortified its offensive line with three transfers and added several players from the portal on defense, including defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (Tennessee), safety Avantae Williams (Miami) and cornerback Ja’Quan Sheppard (Cincinnati). The Terrapins also added two familiar faces to their offensive staff: former Texas A&M and Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin and former Michigan and Miami offensive coordinator Josh Gattis.

Illinois
Bret Bielema has earned the benefit of the doubt. How will the Illini coach replace QB Tommy DeVito and running back Chase Brown, plus multiple starters among the offensive line and secondary groups that rated among the best in the nation? That’s not to mention Ryan Walters, the defensive coordinator who left to take over at Purdue.

Expect Bielema to do it the same way he built Illinois into an eight-win team in two seasons. He has a system that worked at Wisconsin and has done the same in Champaign. Illinois plays a physical brand and featured enough talent in 2022 to roll past Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Illini fell two points short against Michigan.

New DC Aaron Henry, promoted from coaching the secondary, replaces Walters. Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer is battling John Paddock to step in at QB. Isaiah Williams returns to add a spark offensively.

Bielema will push the button to keep Illinois in the hunt.

===============================

Tier 3

Minnesota
The Gophers, in the past three full seasons, have won 11, nine and nine games. They did just enough, though, last season to let the Big Ten West title slip from their grasp. It was there for the taking as Minnesota featured experience and skill at all levels on offense and a defense directed by coordinator Joe Rossi that played better than the sum of its parts.

The pieces look different in 2023. Gone are quarterback Tanner Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim. Athan Kaliakmanis enters at QB after he performed well in relief of Morgan last year. Can Sean Tyler (Western Michigan) in the backfield and fellow transfers Corey Crooms (Western Michigan) and Elijah Spencer (Charlotte) at wide receiver step in and replicate their impressive Group of 5 production?

Proven playmakers Chris Autman-Bell at receiver, tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford at tight end and Tyler Nubin in the secondary provide leadership.

But another nine-win season requires Minnesota to overachieve.

Michigan State
The Spartans are less than two years removed from finishing 11-2, knocking off Michigan and beating Pitt in the Peach Bowl. The big contract signed by coach Mel Tucker didn’t look as good after Michigan State went 5-7 last year, and the 2023 season will be a big one to show that Tucker has the Spartans moving in the right direction.

Michigan State will have to do it without quarterback Payton Thorne, a two-year starter who transferred to Auburn after spring practice. Noah Kim was pushing Thorne for the starting job and appears to have the confidence of Michigan State’s coaching staff. After a rough year on defense in 2022, the Spartans stocked up on transfers and will look to linebacker Cal Haladay to set the tone for a turnaround.

September will be telling, as the Spartans play Washington, Maryland and Iowa in the first month of the season.

Nebraska
A sixth consecutive losing season led to another coaching change in Lincoln, the fifth in less than two decades. Nebraska is seeking stability. It likes what it found in Rhule, who has delivered a calming presence and renewed sense of purpose in Lincoln.

It's only safe to say the Huskers are headed in the right direction after Rhule changes gameday habits and starts to win games. He's intent to build methodically, starting with a renewed emphasis on physical play and toughness. Nebraska revived the fullback. It plans to ride the right arm and legs of QB Jeff Sims, a specimen who was prone to turnovers in three years at Georgia Tech.

Rhule added 40 players to scholarship who didn't finish last season with Nebraska. The defense, former Syracuse coordinator Tony White, will play an aggressive style out of a 3-3-5 base that aims to create chaos.

Rome wasn't built in a day. A realistic goal for Nebraska: Win at least six games and get to a bowl game.

Purdue
The Big Ten provided no favors for new coach Ryan Walters, the 37-year-old former Illinois defensive coordinator, as he moves into the head-coaching seat. The Boilermakers get Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse to open, followed by a brutal stretch of league foes that includes Ohio State and Michigan.

It’s not ideal in what sets up as a transition year. Hudson Card arrives as a heralded former QB recruit who spent three seasons at Texas. Devin Mockobee, the former walk-on, is a sledge hammer at running back. Purdue still has speed at wide receiver for new coordinator Graham Harrell.

But the transfer portal hit the Boilers hard up front on both sides of the ball after coach Jeff Brohm left for Louisville in the wake of winning the Big Ten West.

Walters will play an attacking brand of defense. He has rising stars in Yanni Karlaftis and Nic Caraway. Still, Purdue appears a year away from finding the right mix to match its eight wins from 2022.

===================================

Tier 4

Indiana
Why is Indiana here? Because the Hoosiers are 2-16 in the Big Ten the past two seasons and had the league’s worst defense last year.

Tom Allen, a defensive coach by trade, is searching for answers on that side of the ball. Allen’s decision to take over defensive play-calling duties last year didn’t pan out, and now the Hoosiers are turning to Matt Guerrieri, a former defensive coordinator at Duke who was headed to Tulsa before he was hired at Indiana.

Indiana has had a revolving door at quarterback since Michael Penix Jr. got hurt and transferred to Washington. Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson, the brother of IU basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis, is battling Brendan Sorsby in camp as Dexter Williams II works his way back from knee surgery. There are reasons for hope, but you have to look pretty hard to see them.

Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights can’t escape the Big Ten East fast enough. Playing Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State every year hasn’t helped their transition to the Big Ten, but they haven’t been particularly good against anyone else in the league, either.

Rutgers opens the season at home against Northwestern and has a great chance to equal last year’s Big Ten win total by Labor Day. There’s a path to be 3-0 after home games against Temple and Virginia Tech, which would put bowl eligibility within reach. The Scarlet Knights are banking on offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to help quarterback Gavin Wimsatt take the next step and fix a passing game that ranked last in the Big Ten in completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per game last season.

Northwestern
The Wildcats made for an easy pick to finish at the bottom of the West before the month of July hit. The firing of Fitzgerald, who carried the flag Northwestern athletics, further entrenched the Wildcats.

In interim coach David Braun, who joined the program in January as defensive coordinator from North Dakota State, Northwestern is relying on an untested leader who’s got more on his plate than Nick Saban could comfortably handle.

So how long will the losing streak, currently at 11 games, extend? Coordinator Mike Bajakian’s offense struggled in 2022, ranking 128th nationally in scoring offense at 13.8 points per game. Running back Cam Porter will be tasked to handle the load alongside whomever emerges at quarterback from a group led by Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant.

There’s not enough manpower at Northwestern to expect improvement amid a difficult playing environment.

Starting QBs 2023 vs. 2022
'

Five-Year Performance and Recruiting


Key: "Sagarin Rank" is average national ranking in Jeff Sagarin's season ratings from 2018-22 and "247 Recruiting" is average national ranking in 247Sports Composite recruiting class rankings from 2019-23. Winning percentages, overall and in Big Ten play, reflect 2018-22 seasons.

SCOUTING REPORT

We asked a Big Ten assistant coach to break down intriguing teams and storylines in the conference under the condition of anonymity to permit him to speak freely:

- "Every year Penn State is talented. Are they gonna be a good football team? I don't know. It's a different question. They were last year. I gotta give (James Franklin) credit on that. They were last year. So maybe they are again........The same thing like with Michigan. Michigan should be good, but I don't know. They seem a little bit distracted."

- "The Wisconsin thing is a toss-up. I mean, it really is. I don't know what the hell's gonna happen there. Newer, flashier or different -- that doesn't always mean better. It's kind of hard to argue with the success they had. It'll be a tough probably adjustment this year, but maybe they pull it off. Play good defense. Run the football. Don't turn it over. I know that works there. We'll find out if the other thing works there."

- "I think Illinois will be interesting. Bret (Bielema) is really feeling himself right now. So I don't know if that's good or bad for them."

- "I'm sure David Braun is a good coach. I just think that's an untenable situation. Northwestern's got no chance. Those people don't want to be there, players or coaches."

- I think Greg (Schiano) is going to do the best he can at Rutgers. But they're just gonna be limited by who they play. When Chris (Ash) took that job, I thought he was out of his mind. Because just to get to a bowl game and think about what you're gonna do on your side of the league? It can't be done."

- "I'll tell you the one that's interesting to me and that is Purdue. I want to see what happens here because you want to talk about a defense and an offensive system that do not marry. Right, like so they're gonna play defense, and they're gonna have a defensive identity. But they're gonna run the Air Raid and run a many plays as they can. Something's gotta give. And I'm just guessing it's gonna be offensive because the defensive guy is the head coach."

SAFE PREDICTIONS FOR THE BIG TEN IN 2023

Meek: The Big Ten will have two teams in the College Football Playoff. Don't ask me which two.

Sherman: Michigan beats Ohio State. Ohio State beats Penn State. Penn State beats Michigan. Hello, tiebreaker scenarios.

BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE BIG TEN IN 2023

Meek: Rutgers will beat Northwestern, Temple, Virginia Tech, Wagner, Indiana and Maryland to finish 6-6 and earn a bowl berth.

Sherman: Two coaches in the East will lose their jobs before Thanksgiving, a reflection of the mounting pressure on administrators to act aggressively ahead of big changes coming to the Big Ten next year.