When does the housing market crash?
- Thread starter Charlie Marlow
- Start date
- Status
I don't know but when it does I am sure Lincoln will send out an army of assessors to adjust prices lower to be in line with market value.
No clue, but it will probably be tied to the older and larger segment of the population (ya know, boomers) finally letting go of their houses. Or, maybe a lot sooner than that! I still can't quite wrap my head around how house prices went nuts during/after covid. What used to be $300k is now $450.
Lincoln is building apartments at an unprecedented level. I started out of UNL, a place at 550$ a month. By the time I left it this past May, it was $880.
300$ rise in 8 years.
With all the apartments, you'd think it would control the prices. But, nope it skyrockets it.
F that. Glad I'm out of Crime town.
300$ rise in 8 years.
With all the apartments, you'd think it would control the prices. But, nope it skyrockets it.
F that. Glad I'm out of Crime town.
Soon! We never actually fixed anything from the last time
Last edited:
There is a lot going on in this market to say the least. That said, I don't live in Lincoln but I can give a glimpse of my area of Kansas. I own a couple rental properties, we'll above average quality.
An article this week I read said "boomers" are not giving up their homes or downsizing. I am in that group but don't own a large home so I don't really know what downsizing would like for me. Besides, I couldn't afford to sell and buy something even a little smaller.
Have you priced lumber and building hardware l lately? Construction m a trials a re through the roof (pun intended). I am doing a small remodel project to my man cave and between lumber, hardware and fixtures, stuff is just dang high.
So thr insurance company calculates all that in so insurance goes up on rental or any home for that matter. Here I have to insure for 80% value or pay big bucks for actual cost.
Then throw in property tax increases. We were blessed in that 2 properties went up and one, unexplainable went down more. All of these taxing entities, city, county, schools and others want to give employees big raises because of inflation so they raise the mill levy.
There are a whole bunch of people factors in this as well, sudden influx of people, fewer people getting married and living alone (we see this a lot), and certain seasons growing faster than average.
Like any bubble it will burst most likely.
An article this week I read said "boomers" are not giving up their homes or downsizing. I am in that group but don't own a large home so I don't really know what downsizing would like for me. Besides, I couldn't afford to sell and buy something even a little smaller.
Have you priced lumber and building hardware l lately? Construction m a trials a re through the roof (pun intended). I am doing a small remodel project to my man cave and between lumber, hardware and fixtures, stuff is just dang high.
So thr insurance company calculates all that in so insurance goes up on rental or any home for that matter. Here I have to insure for 80% value or pay big bucks for actual cost.
Then throw in property tax increases. We were blessed in that 2 properties went up and one, unexplainable went down more. All of these taxing entities, city, county, schools and others want to give employees big raises because of inflation so they raise the mill levy.
There are a whole bunch of people factors in this as well, sudden influx of people, fewer people getting married and living alone (we see this a lot), and certain seasons growing faster than average.
Like any bubble it will burst most likely.
It punishes those of us whom don't destroy the place. But, people may as well. The rents become theft, what resolve do tenants have?
You're already going to take their down payment, cause let's face it - it's to pay for new carpet once they leave, and then you double the fine then cause the existing carpet looks like shit, but you conveniently forget that the carpet has a 1 yr rating on it.
When loyal tenants get out after 7 years, you balk at having to replace carpets. Cmon. Who the hell doesn't replace shitty ass carpet in 7 years.
Tightening of money supply>less investment>less jobs>less home buyers
Add to the money supply>the opposite, plus inflation.
Add to the money supply>the opposite, plus inflation.
Things have gotten worse, and I know this first hand.
I am gonna ask you guys to do something. Go to your property tax assessor website where you live. 99% of the time you can see your neighbor's tax obligation ... you can also see who owns the homes near where you live. What will astonish you is the number of homes owned by a corporation. I don't mean a business owner using his company to buy himself a house, I mean homes near you owned by a company that operates single-family homes like a string of apartment complexes.
I'm gonna guess that something approaching 33% of all single-family homes today are rentals. I don't have to tell you who is buying them up by the millions.
It's almost like supply chain disruptions and years of high inflation and millions of illegals flooding our country have an impact on prices. Weird!
There's so much pent up demand for housing the "crash" is likely to only be a few %. We would need massive unemployment to get a crash like 2009.
There's so much pent up demand for housing the "crash" is likely to only be a few %. We would need massive unemployment to get a crash like 2009.
40% of first time home owners are getting help from family to qualify for the loan now. Wild.
I know there was always a percentage of applicants that got help from their folks, but 40%? ...and you know that number is only going up from here due to rates/inflation.
Not sure what that means for a crash, just found that fascinating. I've always found the housing market fascinating though.... especially the people sitting in the safety of their paid for home or almost paid for home, with a low rate locked in. Those know it alls provide a ton of entertainment for me.
I know there was always a percentage of applicants that got help from their folks, but 40%? ...and you know that number is only going up from here due to rates/inflation.
Not sure what that means for a crash, just found that fascinating. I've always found the housing market fascinating though.... especially the people sitting in the safety of their paid for home or almost paid for home, with a low rate locked in. Those know it alls provide a ton of entertainment for me.
Contractor friend said lumber is basically the same as pre-covid. Is that not true? Said other stuff has gone up.
Agree with boomers not downsizing. I know some boomers that have crazy people per Sq. Ft. ratios.
Building costs in my area are over double what they were about 5 years ago. A large part of it is labor shortages as well as materials inflation. I talked to a contractor who built a little ranch house for me a few years ago and he said a ranch style modestly finished 1500 ft home was costing $400/sq ft.
My carpenter neighbor who is an artist with the compound mitre saw would beg to differ with your friend...and as somebody who built a lean-to attached to side of my house to get around the no shed rule in my hood recently, so would I.
One of the analysts I’ve read doesn’t expect any deflation of lower priced homes (less than400k) due to a roughly 15% shortage of entry level homes. We’re letting millions of people in to this country illegally and they’re sucking up rentals and the cheapest homes driving up rents.
The labor shortage in food services, agriculture and construction is one of the reasons IMO that nothing has gotten done on the borders. It’s all interrelated.
I'm not blaming illegals for the housing prices because they aren't the ones shopping for a home, and they cannot rent a home or apartment that I'd be interested in at any price anyway. I'll blam em for a ton of other issues, but not the housing issue.
Ok. I'll have to ask him sometime. Every time I bring it up he tells me lumber isn't the big problem. It's labor and hardware like screws.
Since the dawn of our country people have been hating on immigrants. 2 generations later and they are part of the group hating on the newest immigrant group. It's quite hilarious actually.
We knew for decades we were going to have a huge labor shortage when the boomers retired. Then it actually happened and labor shortages screwed everything up. At any point in history if there is a labor shortage you increase immigration. Today people freak about that. Should just figure out a way to vett people quicker.
Hating? Do they hate on immigrants, or the millions of people coming in the country illegally whose background is completely unknown. The illegal immigrants are taking the jobs of those that retire? Is that what is happening?
Immigrants need to take the entry level jobs like immigrants always have. We need to figure out a way to speed up the vetting process and give them work visas. And then make sure they are working. Seems like this doesn't need to be that hard but politicians always screw it up.
What does boomers retiring have to do with it? Were they all working the entry-level jobs, and illegals immigrants are necessary to fill the void by their retirement? I would guess most illegals immigrants would only be able to take entry level jobs, but job shortages aren’t only in entry level positions, and the fact that most aren’t qualified to do anything more than entry level work is part of the problem, as that will be lower pay thereby making the need for government assistance and services much more likely. Industries aren’t going to collapse if illegal immigrstion is stopped.
You don't know anyone who got a promotion they didn't deserve in the last 4 years? Or someone that was way under-qualified for a job in 2019 that now all sudden qualifies for the same position? Younger people are taking higher up positions then they would normally get. Leaving entry level gaps at places like McDonald's or your local nursing home.
I know someone that was working at a gas station as a 19 year old in 2020 with a hs diploma making $10/hour. By 2022 with 6 months experience she was in charge of 20 employees at a nursing home making $50,000+ annually. And this wasn't based on performance. And they can't fill the entry level positions so they pay overtime like crazy. It's unsustainable.
I think the answer is relatively simple. You speed up vetting and giving work permits. People that come here illegally can gtfo and stay out. I would personally say if you get a visa you aren't eligible for food stamps or welfare. So think about it before you come here.
Is that including a $300k lot?
Most new homes in not insane areas are about $200/sq ft.
Plywood is still pretty high, but rough lumber has retreated to reasonable levels.
No, I don’t. I’m not going to try to pretend to know the stats on the qualifications of different employees in different industries in the labor market. I would agree, paying a ton of overtime is bad for an employer.
I would personally take all this even further. I would overhaul unemployment. No more seasonal workers sitting around smoking weed and collecting unemployment every winter. I would put some kind of limit where you get unemployment twice or something like that. Which would then theoretically allow businesses to cut their contributions, I think. That would in turn get able bodied people into the workforce year round or force people to save money.
Umm, yeah. Unemployment, and entitlement programs, need major rework.
IDK how i should feel about the housing market. I bought first house in 2013 for 100k, and sold it in 16 for 130k. Bought my current house for 195k and feel that I'm probably "stuck" in it forever. Zillow now says its worth 330K, but that means any house I want to move into is probably going to be at least that much.
CC delinquency is quickly rising. If car repos start climbing then homes could be next. It’s crazy how much cheaper it is to rent vs buy in a lot of metros
I'm 49 and our house is paid for, and I would really like to upgrade but I just can't stomach the interest rates or what I see for pricing. I'm not going to sell my house for $375 and find a humble (seriously) acreage for $700 and spend the next 15 years paying the difference at current rates. Gross! Every time I find an acreage that interests me it's priced at twice what my house is worth and it has a worse house on it than what I already have. Eff that.
We have a nationwide housing shortage. Some estimates say we need 5+ million more units today. My apartment in Vegas has risen $300 a month in rent since I moved here in Sept 2021. It was going to be almost $225 more a month this year but I was able to talk them into a $100 increase or I was moving elsewhere. Since I pay my rent on time and never create issues, they were willing to work with me. It just isn't sustainable long-term without substantial investments into more housing nationwide.
Does this guy have a crystal ball or does he visit an oracle? Or maybe he's a time traveler?
- Status
