“We had no business losing that game,” Frost said after his offense stumbled
again in OT.
Win probabilities, according to ESPN metrics.
RANKING THE LOSSES
17. Minnesota 2020 (24-17)
Win probability, according to ESPN metrics, peaked at: 58%
If a home team collapses in an empty stadium and nobody hears it, did it
happen? Sadly, yes.
P.J. Fleck’s squad hadn’t played in three weeks and was missing roughly 33
players due to injuries and COVID-related issues. But the Gophers held the ball
for 36 minutes and seized on Husker mistakes.
A 9-yard loss (after a fumbled swing pass) on the first Husker snap. An 8-yard
shanked punt. A targeting ejection of Cam Taylor-Britt. Two costly turnovers
leading to Minnesota touchdowns.
"I hate to even say this,” Frost said. “We had our best week of practice,
offensively, maybe since I've been at Nebraska.”
That didn’t make anyone feel better.
16. Troy 2018 (24-19)
Win probability peaked at: 85%
In Frost’s second game, you saw the first cracks in the special-teams
infrastructure.
Sure, Adrian Martinez’s knee injury gave Troy a chance. In his place, Andrew
Bunch threw two interceptions. But the key play was Troy’s 58-yard punt return
for a touchdown.
The Trojans jumped ahead 17-0 and hung on, adding insult to injury with a $1.15
million appearance fee. C’mon, you’re only supposed to take the money if you
lose.
15. Indiana 2019 (38-31)
Win probability peaked at: 73%
Martinez missed this game, too. Freshmen Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale
Robinson excited the crowd. But as the team wore alternate black uniforms, the
Blackshirts couldn’t hold up, allowing three consecutive touchdown drives.
“We seem to find new and innovative ways to give a game away,” Frost said. If he
only knew.
14. Colorado 2018 (33-28)
Win probability peaked at: 90%
Frost’s debut merits an asterisk. Ordinarily, coughing up a 28-20 lead to your ex-
rival on your home field would be devastating, especially after officials flagged
Antonio Reed for a personal foul after a third-and-24 incompletion on Colorado’s
final drive. (Ouch.)
But context is important. The Akron opener had been canceled. The previous
season had been a debacle. An entertaining game, even a loss, felt satisfying.
Besides, Frost’s freshman quarterback, Martinez, looked like a future star.
But in the details, you saw glimpses of the future: a 170-yard advantage in total
yards negated by a minus-3 turnover deficit.
13. Iowa 2018 (31-28)
Win probability peaked at: 47%
The Huskers almost stole one. They fell behind 28-13 at Kinnick, but the game
turned when Kirk Ferentz got cute with a fake field goal at the NU 3.
Martinez spearheaded a 15-point rally, first with a 98-yard drive, then another
touchdown with 3:22 left. But Iowa converted a fourth-and-8 from the Nebraska
38 and booted a 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Another foreshadowing moment.
12. Ohio State 2018 (36-31)
Win probability peaked at: 43%
The Huskers forced three Buckeye turnovers and racked up 450 total yards. But
shaky special teams — a failed onside kick and a blocked punt — didn’t help. Nor
did a third-quarter offensive drought. What could’ve been a scrapbook win
slipped away in the final 20 minutes.
“That’s a two-win team that people don’t want to play right now,” OSU coach
Urban Meyer said.
Meyer meant it as a compliment, but it’s not exactly a badge of honor.
11. Iowa 2020 (26-20)
Win probability peaked at: 42%
Despite Cam Jurgens’ wild snaps (clap, clap!) and a scoreless final 25 minutes,
the Huskers still had a chance, needing 40 more yards with 1:25 to go. But Matt
Farniok missed a block and Martinez fumbled as he got crunched.
It was another clutch opportunity wasted, the connective tissue that binds Frost’s
four seasons.
“Sooner or later,” Frost said, “we need to be buttoned up and detailed enough to
make sure these close games go our way.”
10. Minnesota 2021 (30-23)
Win probability peaked at: 61%
If 2021 goes south, this might dip in the rankings. The Huskers were thoroughly
beaten, and it was mediocre Minnesota, not Michigan. But hopefully we
remember just how well Nebraska played the month before.
It might have overcome a sloppy start, but three consecutive second-half drives
inside the Gopher 30 didn’t produce a single point. Ouch.
"Little details got us beat," Frost said. "I know the guys are tired of hearing that.
I'm tired of saying it, but that's what it is."
9. Illinois 2021 (30-22)
Win probability peaked at: 80%
Not your typical close-loss agony. At one point, Nebraska trailed 30-9. But it
definitely felt like the Huskers gave it away.
First with special-teams gaffes, highlighted by Cam Taylor-Britt’s punt-return
safety. Then with offensive futility, highlighted by Martinez’s second-quarter
fumble, which Illinois returned for six. Then with penalties — officials negated an
interception because Caleb Tannor roughed the quarterback.
All in all, a season-opening sequel to 2020.
“The one thing we've never gotten around here is a spark,” Frost said. “We need
to win a couple close games, string some wins together, get some momentum.”
8. Northwestern 2020 (21-13)
Win probability peaked at: 64%
The Huskers rolled up 88 offensive snaps and outyarded the West Division
champs 442-317. But the offense melted down in Northwestern territory — eight
trips, 10 points! — thanks to two interceptions, a missed field goal and penalties
that sunk promising drives.
First it happened under Martinez, then McCaffrey. Nebraska’s only touchdown
came after Myles Farmer returned an interception to the Northwestern 3-yard
line.
"To play like we played, and only have 13 points, that starts with me," Frost said.
7. Oklahoma 2021 (23-16)
Win probability peaked at: 25%
Put it under the category of “moral victory.”
Did anyone outside the Husker fan base think Nebraska was going to complete
the upset? Probably not. But for long stretches, the Huskers appeared capable.
The difference? A porous offensive line (five sacks, six penalties) and another
brutal kicking performance.
Four trips into OU territory after halftime produced 13 points. That doesn’t count
the two allowed when the Sooners ran back a blocked extra point.
"We spotted them nine points and we lost by seven," JoJo Domann said.
6. Purdue 2019 (31-27)
Win probability peaked at: 79%
How did Nebraska, after blocking two punts and intercepting two passes, lose to
a 2-6 team captained by a third-string quarterback?
Red-zone efficiency. In seven trips into Purdue territory, Nebraska scored 10
points.
The worst example? Nebraska had first-and-goal at the 2 when Frost called three
failed passes. A fourth-down delay of game forced a field goal.
In the fourth quarter, the Blackshirts fell apart, yielding two long fourth-quarter
touchdown drives.
“I came back to Nebraska to get this fixed, and I'm gonna do it,” Frost said.
5. Michigan 2021 (32-29)
Win probability peaked at: 69%
If the atmosphere hadn’t been so invigorating and the second-half theatrics so
pulsating, this would rank even higher. How many chances do you get to beat a
top-10 opponent at home in prime time?
The Husker offense rallied from a scoreless first half, throwing big-play
haymakers, but couldn’t get enough stops. And when the offense really had to
take care of the ball or produce a go-ahead drive, it couldn’t. Martinez’s fumble
inside the rugby scrum will go down in Husker infamy.
“It's hard to imagine the things that have happened to us all happening to us,”
Frost said.
4. Iowa 2019 (27-24)
Win probability peaked at: 60%
Since Bo Pelini rallied to beat the Hawkeyes in his finale (and Shawn Eichorst
insulted the black and gold), Ferentz has tormented Nebraska in countless ways.
But this version was the toughest to swallow.
With bowl eligibility at stake, Nebraska juggled quarterbacks and rallied from
24-10 down to tie. The Blackshirts swarmed. The home crowd buzzed.
But on four fourth-quarter drives, Nebraska’s offense produced 21 yards and one
first down. Frost played for overtime and the Hawkeyes completed back-to-back
22-yard passes, setting up a 48-yard Keith Duncan game-winner.
"I've had too many of those conversations with these guys," Frost said.
3. Northwestern 2018 (34-31, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 99%
Why, oh why, would a sixth consecutive loss to open the Frost era (and 10th
overall) rank so high on this list? You had to see it to believe it.
Trailing 31-21 with 5:24 left, Northwestern faced a fourth-and-10 at its 25-yard
line. One incompletion and the game is over. The Huskers couldn’t get it. The rest
of the game, including an overtime interception from Martinez, felt like death by
paper cuts.
"There's 100 ways we could have won that game," Frost said.
Nebraska couldn’t find a single one.
2. Colorado 2019 (34-31, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 96%
If you turned off the game at halftime, with the road team leading 17-0 and
Colorado's James Stefanou kicks an overtime field goal over the Nebraska's defenders in 2019.
outyarding Colorado 266-84, you might have thought Nebraska won by 40. No
kidding.
You would’ve missed the offense tripping and the defense collapsing. You
would’ve missed the Buffs’ 24-point fourth quarter, their 96-yard touchdown
pass and their tying 26-yard TD with 46 seconds left. You would’ve missed
Nebraska’s pitiful overtime possession that lost 6 yards, derailing Frost’s
promising second season.
“I’ve only been part of a couple that are tougher than this,” Frost said.
On second thought, maybe you should’ve turned it off at half.
1. Michigan State 2021 (23-20, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 94%
C’mon, is there any other choice? Any other Frost loss that left Husker fans so
despondent, so confused, so ... empty?
Undefeated Michigan State did not produce a first down the entire second half —
and won! Doesn’t that violate some sort of rule?
The Huskers squeezed a 20-13 lead with four minutes left when punter Daniel
Cerni booted a line drive juuuuuuust a bit off his target. No harm done, right?
Except Spartan blockers coaxed Husker tacklers to the right sideline, when the
ball actually landed on the left half in the hands of returner Jayden Reed, who
ran 62 yards for a score.
“We had no business losing that game,” Frost said after his offense stumbled
again in OT.
again in OT.
Win probabilities, according to ESPN metrics.
RANKING THE LOSSES
17. Minnesota 2020 (24-17)
Win probability, according to ESPN metrics, peaked at: 58%
If a home team collapses in an empty stadium and nobody hears it, did it
happen? Sadly, yes.
P.J. Fleck’s squad hadn’t played in three weeks and was missing roughly 33
players due to injuries and COVID-related issues. But the Gophers held the ball
for 36 minutes and seized on Husker mistakes.
A 9-yard loss (after a fumbled swing pass) on the first Husker snap. An 8-yard
shanked punt. A targeting ejection of Cam Taylor-Britt. Two costly turnovers
leading to Minnesota touchdowns.
"I hate to even say this,” Frost said. “We had our best week of practice,
offensively, maybe since I've been at Nebraska.”
That didn’t make anyone feel better.
16. Troy 2018 (24-19)
Win probability peaked at: 85%
In Frost’s second game, you saw the first cracks in the special-teams
infrastructure.
Sure, Adrian Martinez’s knee injury gave Troy a chance. In his place, Andrew
Bunch threw two interceptions. But the key play was Troy’s 58-yard punt return
for a touchdown.
The Trojans jumped ahead 17-0 and hung on, adding insult to injury with a $1.15
million appearance fee. C’mon, you’re only supposed to take the money if you
lose.
15. Indiana 2019 (38-31)
Win probability peaked at: 73%
Martinez missed this game, too. Freshmen Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale
Robinson excited the crowd. But as the team wore alternate black uniforms, the
Blackshirts couldn’t hold up, allowing three consecutive touchdown drives.
“We seem to find new and innovative ways to give a game away,” Frost said. If he
only knew.
14. Colorado 2018 (33-28)
Win probability peaked at: 90%
Frost’s debut merits an asterisk. Ordinarily, coughing up a 28-20 lead to your ex-
rival on your home field would be devastating, especially after officials flagged
Antonio Reed for a personal foul after a third-and-24 incompletion on Colorado’s
final drive. (Ouch.)
But context is important. The Akron opener had been canceled. The previous
season had been a debacle. An entertaining game, even a loss, felt satisfying.
Besides, Frost’s freshman quarterback, Martinez, looked like a future star.
But in the details, you saw glimpses of the future: a 170-yard advantage in total
yards negated by a minus-3 turnover deficit.
13. Iowa 2018 (31-28)
Win probability peaked at: 47%
The Huskers almost stole one. They fell behind 28-13 at Kinnick, but the game
turned when Kirk Ferentz got cute with a fake field goal at the NU 3.
Martinez spearheaded a 15-point rally, first with a 98-yard drive, then another
touchdown with 3:22 left. But Iowa converted a fourth-and-8 from the Nebraska
38 and booted a 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Another foreshadowing moment.
12. Ohio State 2018 (36-31)
Win probability peaked at: 43%
The Huskers forced three Buckeye turnovers and racked up 450 total yards. But
shaky special teams — a failed onside kick and a blocked punt — didn’t help. Nor
did a third-quarter offensive drought. What could’ve been a scrapbook win
slipped away in the final 20 minutes.
“That’s a two-win team that people don’t want to play right now,” OSU coach
Urban Meyer said.
Meyer meant it as a compliment, but it’s not exactly a badge of honor.
11. Iowa 2020 (26-20)
Win probability peaked at: 42%
Despite Cam Jurgens’ wild snaps (clap, clap!) and a scoreless final 25 minutes,
the Huskers still had a chance, needing 40 more yards with 1:25 to go. But Matt
Farniok missed a block and Martinez fumbled as he got crunched.
It was another clutch opportunity wasted, the connective tissue that binds Frost’s
four seasons.
“Sooner or later,” Frost said, “we need to be buttoned up and detailed enough to
make sure these close games go our way.”
10. Minnesota 2021 (30-23)
Win probability peaked at: 61%
If 2021 goes south, this might dip in the rankings. The Huskers were thoroughly
beaten, and it was mediocre Minnesota, not Michigan. But hopefully we
remember just how well Nebraska played the month before.
It might have overcome a sloppy start, but three consecutive second-half drives
inside the Gopher 30 didn’t produce a single point. Ouch.
"Little details got us beat," Frost said. "I know the guys are tired of hearing that.
I'm tired of saying it, but that's what it is."
9. Illinois 2021 (30-22)
Win probability peaked at: 80%
Not your typical close-loss agony. At one point, Nebraska trailed 30-9. But it
definitely felt like the Huskers gave it away.
First with special-teams gaffes, highlighted by Cam Taylor-Britt’s punt-return
safety. Then with offensive futility, highlighted by Martinez’s second-quarter
fumble, which Illinois returned for six. Then with penalties — officials negated an
interception because Caleb Tannor roughed the quarterback.
All in all, a season-opening sequel to 2020.
“The one thing we've never gotten around here is a spark,” Frost said. “We need
to win a couple close games, string some wins together, get some momentum.”
8. Northwestern 2020 (21-13)
Win probability peaked at: 64%
The Huskers rolled up 88 offensive snaps and outyarded the West Division
champs 442-317. But the offense melted down in Northwestern territory — eight
trips, 10 points! — thanks to two interceptions, a missed field goal and penalties
that sunk promising drives.
First it happened under Martinez, then McCaffrey. Nebraska’s only touchdown
came after Myles Farmer returned an interception to the Northwestern 3-yard
line.
"To play like we played, and only have 13 points, that starts with me," Frost said.
7. Oklahoma 2021 (23-16)
Win probability peaked at: 25%
Put it under the category of “moral victory.”
Did anyone outside the Husker fan base think Nebraska was going to complete
the upset? Probably not. But for long stretches, the Huskers appeared capable.
The difference? A porous offensive line (five sacks, six penalties) and another
brutal kicking performance.
Four trips into OU territory after halftime produced 13 points. That doesn’t count
the two allowed when the Sooners ran back a blocked extra point.
"We spotted them nine points and we lost by seven," JoJo Domann said.
6. Purdue 2019 (31-27)
Win probability peaked at: 79%
How did Nebraska, after blocking two punts and intercepting two passes, lose to
a 2-6 team captained by a third-string quarterback?
Red-zone efficiency. In seven trips into Purdue territory, Nebraska scored 10
points.
The worst example? Nebraska had first-and-goal at the 2 when Frost called three
failed passes. A fourth-down delay of game forced a field goal.
In the fourth quarter, the Blackshirts fell apart, yielding two long fourth-quarter
touchdown drives.
“I came back to Nebraska to get this fixed, and I'm gonna do it,” Frost said.
5. Michigan 2021 (32-29)
Win probability peaked at: 69%
If the atmosphere hadn’t been so invigorating and the second-half theatrics so
pulsating, this would rank even higher. How many chances do you get to beat a
top-10 opponent at home in prime time?
The Husker offense rallied from a scoreless first half, throwing big-play
haymakers, but couldn’t get enough stops. And when the offense really had to
take care of the ball or produce a go-ahead drive, it couldn’t. Martinez’s fumble
inside the rugby scrum will go down in Husker infamy.
“It's hard to imagine the things that have happened to us all happening to us,”
Frost said.
4. Iowa 2019 (27-24)
Win probability peaked at: 60%
Since Bo Pelini rallied to beat the Hawkeyes in his finale (and Shawn Eichorst
insulted the black and gold), Ferentz has tormented Nebraska in countless ways.
But this version was the toughest to swallow.
With bowl eligibility at stake, Nebraska juggled quarterbacks and rallied from
24-10 down to tie. The Blackshirts swarmed. The home crowd buzzed.
But on four fourth-quarter drives, Nebraska’s offense produced 21 yards and one
first down. Frost played for overtime and the Hawkeyes completed back-to-back
22-yard passes, setting up a 48-yard Keith Duncan game-winner.
"I've had too many of those conversations with these guys," Frost said.
3. Northwestern 2018 (34-31, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 99%
Why, oh why, would a sixth consecutive loss to open the Frost era (and 10th
overall) rank so high on this list? You had to see it to believe it.
Trailing 31-21 with 5:24 left, Northwestern faced a fourth-and-10 at its 25-yard
line. One incompletion and the game is over. The Huskers couldn’t get it. The rest
of the game, including an overtime interception from Martinez, felt like death by
paper cuts.
"There's 100 ways we could have won that game," Frost said.
Nebraska couldn’t find a single one.
2. Colorado 2019 (34-31, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 96%
If you turned off the game at halftime, with the road team leading 17-0 and
Colorado's James Stefanou kicks an overtime field goal over the Nebraska's defenders in 2019.
outyarding Colorado 266-84, you might have thought Nebraska won by 40. No
kidding.
You would’ve missed the offense tripping and the defense collapsing. You
would’ve missed the Buffs’ 24-point fourth quarter, their 96-yard touchdown
pass and their tying 26-yard TD with 46 seconds left. You would’ve missed
Nebraska’s pitiful overtime possession that lost 6 yards, derailing Frost’s
promising second season.
“I’ve only been part of a couple that are tougher than this,” Frost said.
On second thought, maybe you should’ve turned it off at half.
1. Michigan State 2021 (23-20, OT)
Win probability peaked at: 94%
C’mon, is there any other choice? Any other Frost loss that left Husker fans so
despondent, so confused, so ... empty?
Undefeated Michigan State did not produce a first down the entire second half —
and won! Doesn’t that violate some sort of rule?
The Huskers squeezed a 20-13 lead with four minutes left when punter Daniel
Cerni booted a line drive juuuuuuust a bit off his target. No harm done, right?
Except Spartan blockers coaxed Husker tacklers to the right sideline, when the
ball actually landed on the left half in the hands of returner Jayden Reed, who
ran 62 yards for a score.
“We had no business losing that game,” Frost said after his offense stumbled
again in OT.
