Three Biggest Milestones this Year

[Huskercigar]

Arkansas State. Its the first game. Do we struggle or totally dominate.?
Oregon. We will be underdogs. First chance on the big stage for 2017
Wisconsin. Until things change this is our new barometer.

I know there are other big games but at this point, looking into the season these ones will be a chance to measure where we are at.

 

[scarletred]

Milestones?

If I had my wish on 3 games to win.

Oregon - Because I'm going to Eugene and it would be a big road win.
Wisconsin- only have beaten them once since joining the conference and to win the division it's a must.
Iowa- Everyone knows the answer to that one after losing the last two years.

 

[JohnRossEwing]

Ark State: I already bet the Huskers -16.5 but it would not shock me if this game is a super dogfight. If the Skers lose...well...I think it will be the last season of Riley. I don't see that happening though.

Oregon: Why the Ducks are getting so much love is beyond my grasp. But this is the kind of game that get help the Huskers get off to a great start and top 15 ranking, quickly.

Purdue/Illini: These games need to stop being close.

 

[dockentwo]

Ark State: I already bet the Huskers -16.5 but it would not shock me if this game is a super dogfight. If the Skers lose...well...I think it will be the last season of Riley. I don't see that happening though.

Oregon: Why the Ducks are getting so much love is beyond my grasp. But this is the kind of game that get help the Huskers get off to a great start and top 15 ranking, quickly.

Purdue/Illini: These games need to stop being close.

Nice, I am thinking the D coaches background in being tough in the red zone, will keep or get the game in hand; against a capable and surely inspired Ark State. I also believe there is a 70% chance or more, that the Blackshirts spirited play will be the surprise of the B1G this year. GBR

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

A win at Oregon would be YUGE and could set up for an outstanding season BiGLY. They'll be much better than last year.

 

[cidsports]

Arkansas State. Its the first game. Do we struggle or totally dominate.?
Oregon. We will be underdogs. First chance on the big stage for 2017
Wisconsin. Until things change this is our new barometer.

I know there are other big games but at this point, looking into the season these ones will be a chance to measure where we are at.

Junior QB 15 Justice Hansen is one of 5 starters back for coach Blake Anderson, who also returns 5 on defense, as well. The placekicker is new, though they return a sophomore punter.

Appalachian State gave Tennessee all they could handle, in last year's 20-13 OT loss. Arkansas State is #2 in the Sun Belt per Phil Steele, after an 8-5 season in 2016. The Red Wolves opened 0-4, including a 28-23 loss at home against FCS Central Arkansas.

But, unlike 2007, with App State's 34-32 win over Michigan in the Big House to open the season ... when have the Red Wolves been a name maker in College Football?

Interesting, Arkansas State hosts Miami-FL in Jonesboro in Week 2, much like App State hosted Miami-FL in Week 3 last year.

Last 3 years ...

• Lost 19-34 at Tennessee 34-19 in Week 2
• Lost at Miami-FL 41-20 in Week 3 in 2014
• Beat Utah State in 2014 at home in 2014
• Lost 55-6 at USC to open 2015
• Lost 27-20 vs. Missouri in Week 2 in 2015
• Lost to Toledo at home 31-10 to kickoff 2016
• Lost 51-14 in Week 2 last year at Auburn
• Utah State won the back back game 34-20 last year

We likely recall 2012, when Nebraska won 42-13 in Week 3. Arkansas State had opened with a 57-34 L at Oregon.

This program is 1-25-1 in road openers, with 8 straight losses. Only win was 18-14 to open 2008 in College Station over Texas A&M. A&M went on to go 4-8, 2-6 in the Big 12 South. A&M lost to Miami-FL, as well, that season

 

[Pennsyhusker]

My only thoughts on the Arkansas state game is that it is potentially a tough game but probably won't be, and that we probably will be without Stanley Morgan for that game.

Our three milestone games this year? Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa...

Actually, on further reflection, every B1G game we play is a milestone game. We need to start beating Wisky and Iowa. But we also need to start dominating teams like Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers. And we simply cannot lose to teams we have outrecruited: Northwestern and Minnesota. Finally, we need to be strongly competitive against OSU and PSU. Get blown out by the big boys and your recruiting mojo disappears after a while. Blue chip recruits will only respond for a short while to the "come here because we are building something great and you can be in on the ground floor" line. Too many woodshed thrashings kills that message after it starts happening with frequency.

This is a big year for Husker football. We really cannot afford another failed coach. We need a solid year with momentum that builds.

 

[Bugeater]

A win at Oregon would be YUGE and could set up for an outstanding season BiGLY. They'll be much better than last year.

Then the question is, will Nebraska be much better than last year to match the Ducks?

 

[Cornicator]

Arkansas State will come into Lincoln with 5 new offensive line starters.

LT- JUCO transfer with no D1 time
LG- played in 2 career games
C- RS Freshman - no career snaps
RG- no starts
RT- Grad Transfer from Iowa State who played in two games last year for the Cyclones



Now you can have your own reservations or critical thoughts about the Dline and defensive front 7 as a whole, but you can't deny the Huskers have a lot of experience there.

Freedom, Mick, and Carlos have 31 combined starts along the Dline. These guys have been heavily battle tested in the Big Ten. When you add Newby, Weber, and Young into the mix, you're looking at major advantage for the Huskers.

I think Nebraska beats Arkansas State by 30+. I don't expect Arky State to maintain much offensive cohesion. That offensive line is going to get beat up.

 

[bomber89]

10-2

 

[DudznSudz]

My only thoughts on the Arkansas state game is that it is potentially a tough game but probably won't be, and that we probably will be without Stanley Morgan for that game.

Our three milestone games this year? Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa...

Actually, on further reflection, every B1G game we play is a milestone game. We need to start beating Wisky and Iowa. But we also need to start dominating teams like Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers. And we simply cannot lose to teams we have outrecruited: Northwestern and Minnesota. Finally, we need to be strongly competitive against OSU and PSU. Get blown out by the big boys and your recruiting mojo disappears after a while. Blue chip recruits will only respond for a short while to the "come here because we are building something great and you can be in on the ground floor" line. Too many woodshed thrashings kills that message after it starts happening with frequency.

This is a big year for Husker football. We really cannot afford another failed coach. We need a solid year with momentum that builds.

I've been thinking a lot about this, and I don't think it is nearly as important as some people make it out to be. If you think about it, Nebraska has been thrashed by the "big league" (colloq: BIGLY) programs since joining the Big Ten. We've been able to build up recruiting momentum regardless. I think the argument of "We're building something here, come join" works so long as the coaches are in place and the program seems to be trending up. I think it stops working once major coaching changes happen or when the program takes a significant step back.

I expect this year to be anywhere between 7-5 and 10-2, just depending on how the chips fall. We'll be ok, maybe even good, but we're also going to lose a few. To me, with the recruits that have been coming in, that's fine. Just keep the momentum going and see what kind of a dangerous team we are in 2018.

 

[jlb321]

I've been thinking a lot about this, and I don't think it is nearly as important as some people make it out to be. If you think about it, Nebraska has been thrashed by the "big league" (colloq: BIGLY) programs since joining the Big Ten. We've been able to build up recruiting momentum regardless. I think the argument of "We're building something here, come join" works so long as the coaches are in place and the program seems to be trending up. I think it stops working once major coaching changes happen or when the program takes a significant step back.

I expect this year to be anywhere between 7-5 and 10-2, just depending on how the chips fall. We'll be ok, maybe even good, but we're also going to lose a few. To me, with the recruits that have been coming in, that's fine. Just keep the momentum going and see what kind of a dangerous team we are in 2018.

I presume the coaching change was made to improve on the annual 4 loss seasons with 1-2 of them being of the woodshed variety. The timing of these expected results can be debated but I would hope we would see some progress and to get there before year 5. While Ferentz's coaching career can be debated he took over a disaster and in years 4,5,6 averaged more than 10 wins (11-10-10). I hope to see at least 9 wins this year.

Now maybe my assumptions are wrong and the coaching change was made more to improve the press conference performance of the program and maintain status quo on the field. It is going to be hard to argue that things are "trending up" if the win total is 7-8 and we lose big to the programs we are hoping to emulate (PSU/OSU) or surpass (Iowa).

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

My opinion is that the coaching change involved both aspects you mentioned. The public image of the head coach, the recruiting decline, are a couple of reasons that I could see factoring into the decision. As well as the need to compete for and win conference titles.

We can debate until we are blue in the face where the talent level was at when Riley took over, the depth of the talent and, if you believe their was a lack of depth, how that lack of depth needed to be corrected.

I don't believe it was simply a matter of winning games and the blowout losses. I think blowout losses are becoming a little more common. Look at the results of the College football playoff in all 3 years. There have been multiple games with some pretty lopsided scores, Oregon vs Florida St, Alabama vs Mich St, Clemson vs Ohio St, Clemson vs Oklahoma. Heck look at Ohio St vs Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title game 59-0.

I also don't believe the change was necessarily made just to improve on the current W/L record immediately. Since 2011,

Mich St - Wisconsin
Nebraska - Wisconsin (s/b Ohio St)
Michigan St - Ohio St
Wisconsin - Ohio St
Iowa - Mich St
Wisconsin - Penn St

Outside of single appearances by Penn St, Iowa and Nebraska, the league has been dominated by 3 teams.

My opinion is that when Riley took over, the powers that be, SE, Riley, all of them, overestimated the level of talent and overestimated how quickly or well they could transition them to their style of play. I believe the 2015 season was an eye-opener. A more talented team would have been able to pull out more wins in those close games and a better coaching evaluation of the talent should have shown that Armstrong or the DBs and the pass rush weren't capable to running the schemes to the level needed.

I know I sound like a broken record, but it's easy to look back and say, this is what should have been done. We can all do that.

I know some are still critical of the play calling and the defense in 2016. What I saw was adjustments to better match the talent and skill sets of the players. The results showed, more close game victories, better defensive play, especially in the passing game. More play calling that utilized the strength of the QB. Had they done this in 2015, they may have won more games and built more momentum going into 2016, even more than what was gained in the bowl victory. But you can't go back.

I don't know that Mike Riley is the long term solution. I do believe that when he leaves, this program will be in a better place than when he started.

 

[chicolby]

To the OP's intent:

Oregon is a hallmark game and will either have Nebraska firmly on the map come October 7 when Wisconsin comes to town or it will be an "interesting" game to B1G fans.

Wisconsin of course is the next one. As several have suggested, Nebraska has actually played Wisconsin well since Riley came on board, but they haven't gotten over the top (yet.) I think Nebraska is overdue and while Wisconsin will be the real deal this year, especially on defense, I am not scared of the Wisconsin offense. I think this is a Riley special and Nebraska pulls out the win.

Iowa to me is the next one, not because I think Iowa is better than Ohio State or Penn State, but because that game will likely matter in the road to a B1G Championship game, and it's against the Hawkeyes who have also had too much success over Nebraska lately.

All games are important, but those three are the most important in my opinion (and not in that order) - Oregon would be the third most important in this list simply because they are non-conference.

 

[jlb321]

My opinion is that the coaching change involved both aspects you mentioned. The public image of the head coach, the recruiting decline, are a couple of reasons that I could see factoring into the decision. As well as the need to compete for and win conference titles.

We can debate until we are blue in the face where the talent level was at when Riley took over, the depth of the talent and, if you believe their was a lack of depth, how that lack of depth needed to be corrected.

I don't believe it was simply a matter of winning games and the blowout losses. I think blowout losses are becoming a little more common. Look at the results of the College football playoff in all 3 years. There have been multiple games with some pretty lopsided scores, Oregon vs Florida St, Alabama vs Mich St, Clemson vs Ohio St, Clemson vs Oklahoma. Heck look at Ohio St vs Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title game 59-0.

I also don't believe the change was necessarily made just to improve on the current W/L record immediately. Since 2011,

Mich St - Wisconsin
Nebraska - Wisconsin (s/b Ohio St)
Michigan St - Ohio St
Wisconsin - Ohio St
Iowa - Mich St
Wisconsin - Penn St

Outside of single appearances by Penn St, Iowa and Nebraska, the league has been dominated by 3 teams.

My opinion is that when Riley took over, the powers that be, SE, Riley, all of them, overestimated the level of talent and overestimated how quickly or well they could transition them to their style of play. I believe the 2015 season was an eye-opener. A more talented team would have been able to pull out more wins in those close games and a better coaching evaluation of the talent should have shown that Armstrong or the DBs and the pass rush weren't capable to running the schemes to the level needed.

I know I sound like a broken record, but it's easy to look back and say, this is what should have been done. We can all do that.

I know some are still critical of the play calling and the defense in 2016. What I saw was adjustments to better match the talent and skill sets of the players. The results showed, more close game victories, better defensive play, especially in the passing game. More play calling that utilized the strength of the QB. Had they done this in 2015, they may have won more games and built more momentum going into 2016, even more than what was gained in the bowl victory. But you can't go back.

I don't know that Mike Riley is the long term solution. I do believe that when he leaves, this program will be in a better place than when he started.

of course you are right .... but at some point it has to be clear that on the field results have improved with Riley. Everyone, at least almost everyone, wants this to be so. At present there are some reasons for optimism but at some point there shouldn't be much debate. Maybe 8 years from now we will look back and see that Riley had things on the right track but presently I think it is fair to be supportive while also taking a "wait and see" approach before declaring that things are going to be markedly improved.

9 wins with or without blowouts I think is a fair benchmark. We have 6 tough games this year (Oregon, PSU, OSU, NW, Iowa, Wisconin) - 4 of those 6 are at home - it is not unreasonable to expect to win 3 of those. If we win 7 or 8 Riley isn't going to be fired but I think the jury will continue to be out on whether this was the right hire. I am a little surprised that some are hedging when 9 wins is brought up as a benchmark for this year. It doesn't mean he should be fired if we only get to 7-8 but I think it is ok to acknowledge that things might be a bit behind schedule from what was expected without it being perceived as calling for Riley's head or being a Pelini supporter.

There are numerous examples of coaches getting things turned around under similar circumstances, at least temporarily, inside of 5 years.

 

[ExxHusker]

Milestone #3 - Don't let Ohio St humiliate us again.
Milestone #2 - Don't let Wisconsin humiliate us again.
Milestone #1 - For God's sake don't let Iowa kick our asses like we never knew who Grant Wistrom was again.

Same milestones we've been looking up to for...ever.

 

[DudznSudz]

of course you are right .... but at some point it has to be clear that on the field results have improved with Riley. Everyone, at least almost everyone, wants this to be so. At present there are some reasons for optimism but at some point there shouldn't be much debate. Maybe 8 years from now we will look back and see that Riley had things on the right track but presently I think it is fair to be supportive while also taking a "wait and see" approach before declaring that things are going to be markedly improved.

9 wins with or without blowouts I think is a fair benchmark. We have 6 tough games this year (Oregon, PSU, OSU, NW, Iowa, Wisconin) - 4 of those 6 are at home - it is not unreasonable to expect to win 3 of those. If we win 7 or 8 Riley isn't going to be fired but I think the jury will continue to be out on whether this was the right hire. I am a little surprised that some are hedging when 9 wins is brought up as a benchmark for this year. It doesn't mean he should be fired if we only get to 7-8 but I think it is ok to acknowledge that things might be a bit behind schedule from what was expected without it being perceived as calling for Riley's head or being a Pelini supporter.

There are numerous examples of coaches getting things turned around under similar circumstances, at least temporarily, inside of 5 years.

Yeah, I think this is fairly accurate. You're right; 7-8 wins isn't going to get Riley in trouble, considering the rebuilding year we're having, but it IS fair to ask what exactly the timeline is supposed to be like. I think we should be showing elite level playing ability by the 2018 and 2019 seasons. If we aren't by then, then you will see me start making a LOT of noise about hiring a new head coach. I just think with what they're trying to do and with the coaching changes they've made, it is simply going to take a while to get us back to where we need to be.

However, I do think we're headed there, and barring some seriously bad developments, I think that's where we will land by next year and/or the year after. I'm patient; this program has basically been a shell of its former self since, what, 2002? 2003? If you want to be generous, maybe 2010-11? What's another couple of years if it means building something solid, consistent, and successful?

 

[DukeOfSorrow]

I think with less than 9 wins Riley's seat starts warming up, and the pressure starts to show more. Even at 9 with a tough schedule, there are going to need to be some caveats to keep the grumbling from growing. Like, keeping games from getting out of hand. Especially against our divisional competition. If Iowa blows us out again (in Lincoln especially), people are not going to be happy (understatement).

I don't think that happens though. I feel like this team will get better over the course of the season, as Lee gets in a rhythm, an RB or 2 emerges, the young WRs and TEs get experienced, and the Blackshirts get comfortable in the new scheme.

The OSU game is interesting to me in particular. The team should have a chip on their shoulders going into this one after last year's humiliation. Additionally, the timing makes this game a huge potential trap game for OSU. I just feel good about it.

Oregon is a wildcard. Losing that game won't kill us, but it doesn't help the momentum going forward at all. To my memory, we have trouble travelling out west. Don't underestimate that game, no matter how terrible they were in 16. Winning this one would mean more than people here make it out to be I think.

Wisconsin. I know everyone sees this as the game we get so close in, and the team we need to dethrone in the west... But guys, they aren't going to just give it up. This game is becoming a fist-fight no mater the venue, and I expect one this season as well, making it difficult for me to say we will win this one. It's 50-50 IMO.

Iowa. No matter how the season goes, this should be marked as a must-win for Riley. Not only is going 0-2 in Lincoln against them going to look ugly, but redemption for last year's slaughter is what people really want.

 

[DudznSudz]

I think with less than 9 wins Riley's seat starts warming up, and the pressure starts to show more. Even at 9 with a tough schedule, there are going to need to be some caveats to keep the grumbling from growing. Like, keeping games from getting out of hand. Especially against our divisional competition. If Iowa blows us out again (in Lincoln especially), people are not going to be happy (understatement).

I don't think that happens though. I feel like this team will get better over the course of the season, as Lee gets in a rhythm, an RB or 2 emerges, the young WRs and TEs get experienced, and the Blackshirts get comfortable in the new scheme.

The OSU game is interesting to me in particular. The team should have a chip on their shoulders going into this one after last year's humiliation. Additionally, the timing makes this game a huge potential trap game for OSU. I just feel good about it.

Oregon is a wildcard. Losing that game won't kill us, but it doesn't help the momentum going forward at all. To my memory, we have trouble travelling out west. Don't underestimate that game, no matter how terrible they were in 16. Winning this one would mean more than people here make it out to be I think.

Wisconsin. I know everyone sees this as the game we get so close in, and the team we need to dethrone in the west... But guys, they aren't going to just give it up. This game is becoming a fist-fight no mater the venue, and I expect one this season as well, making it difficult for me to say we will win this one. It's 50-50 IMO.

Iowa. No matter how the season goes, this should be marked as a must-win for Riley. Not only is going 0-2 in Lincoln against them going to look ugly, but redemption for last year's slaughter is what people really want.

I like this analysis. I agree with all of it, actually, though I don't see Riley's seat getting warm because, as you're pointing out, I don't think the season goes completely sideways. He would have to show poor coaching decisions, poor game management, and post a losing record for the seat to start getting hot. I keep emphasizing that I think everyone who is reasonable accepts that this is not going to be our breakout season, but we need to show that we're not going to get manhandled in games this year.

I've said for years that, especially in seasons like this (where we know we have limits) that as long as the losses are close and as long as we look competitive, 7 wins or better is fine.

I agree with you, though, 100%, that we need to start winning those bare-knuckle fistfights with Iowa and Wisconsin more often than we lose them.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I think too many of us are focusing on the wrong side of the ball. The offense isn't going to be what determines success this year.

If Diaco and crew can reduce the scoring defense from 33rd ranked and 23.9 points per game, and improve rushing defense from 43rd and 147.85 YPG, the season will be successful.

Comparing the 2002 numbers to the 2016 numbers, they are almost scary equal.

2002 23.9 ppg 2016 23.9 ppg
2002146.6 rush YPG 2016 147.85 rushing YPG
2002 361.9 total YPG 2016 363.7 total YPG

If we can reduce them similarly to how they improved from 2002-2003, the wins will come.

2003 14.5 ppg
119.3 rush YPG
297.2 total YPG.

 

[DudznSudz]

I think too many of us are focusing on the wrong side of the ball. The offense isn't going to be what determines success this year.

If Diaco and crew can reduce the scoring defense from 33rd ranked and 23.9 points per game, and improve rushing defense from 43rd and 147.85 YPG, the season will be successful.

Comparing the 2002 numbers to the 2016 numbers, they are almost scary equal.

2002 23.9 ppg 2016 23.9 ppg
2002146.6 rush YPG 2016 147.85 rushing YPG
2002 361.9 total YPG 2016 363.7 total YPG

If we can reduce them similarly to how they improved from 2002-2003, the wins will come.

2003 14.5 ppg
119.3 rush YPG
297.2 total YPG.

Totally agree. Our offense is a couple of years away from having the firepower and experience to go out there and hang 40+ points on teams, but our defense could be powerful enough to make a difference immediately. In point of fact, when I say 2018 and 2019 should be the years we see Nebraska start reaching elite status again, I'm primarily talking about the offense.

Lee should be a good starter, and O'Brien should be a great back-up/starter in a year or two. Gebbia is going to be our rock star, I think, in 2-3 years time. Plus, the receivers who are coming in as freshmen or redshirt freshmen are going to be seasoned sophomores-juniors by then. There is a lot to look forward to on the offensive side of the ball, but it's exactly that; looking forward. It's not necessarily going to be on display this season.

I'm hoping for better than last year on defense, and simply "competent" on offense.If we can manage that, I agree, we'll have an alright season.

 

[yunginsNU2]

No mention of Penn state... hmmm well I will take #1 Wisconsin at home
#2 either defending big champs Penn State or tosu..
#3 Iowa

Tuco I agree with your assessment of the def.. being the key I also think special teams is being overlooked as well... the offense will be good enough to win a lot of games.. defense and special teams will take us to the championship

 

[Toms Wife]

Milestone #3 - Don't let Ohio St humiliate us again.
Milestone #2 - Don't let Wisconsin humiliate us again.
Milestone #1 - For God's sake don't let Iowa kick our asses like we never knew who Grant Wistrom was again.

Same milestones we've been looking up to for...ever.

Yikes...if our milestones are not simply getting blown out then one question needs to be asked, "When did our goalposts get moved?

 

[ExxHusker]

Yikes...if our milestones are not simply getting blown out then one question needs to be asked, "When did our goalposts get moved?

Gotta admit though a year without any of these would be a huge improvement of late. Of course National Championship and Heisman would be nice but we haven't sniffed that since 1999 or 2001. (And then we fired our coach.) I'm just being realistic here.

Oh what the heck.
#1 QB doesn't routinely throw to other team or fumble when trying to make up for stupid mistake
[should improve dramatically here]
#2 sacking the other teams QB not being a fluke
[at least when got a new coach here]
#3 put some effort into kicking game and make it an advantage [at least we got rid of the coach here]

Let's face it the goal post have been moved quit a bit. But Riley did make some coaching changes to his credit. I would have liked to see a couple more but they are likely coming if things don't improve on offense.

 

[Bugeater]

If the offense can improve by 75 ypg, the defense give up 75ypg less, you would see a very dramatic turn around on this team. Boost it with some solid special teams and win the turnover battles, you have the chance for a better than expected season. Easier said than done, but I hope this years team can get there.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Yikes...if our milestones are not simply getting blown out then one question needs to be asked, "When did our goalposts get moved?

Use your own goalposts. That way you control if/when and how much they move.