Stolen from Reddit

[Bruce1981]

we ran the ball on 74% of our plays in 1995.

the game has changed. the most run-heavy, power football teams these days - like Michigan last year - still run the ball >60% of the time. and they run the ball on both 1st and 3rd down more than everyone else in the country (at will).

the analytics OP refers to about passing > running aren't wrong. they just exist in a vacuum, unlike actual football games where variables are omnipresent.

That's not the point. The point is Osborne already destroyed this argument by dominating the landscape after already having success. He even switched from a more balanced pro system to a committed rushing attack so it's not like he had the foundation already laid before him. If a savant like Osborne came along and replicated what he did, he too would have great success.

 

[RedMyMind]

I wouldn't call what any team is doing currently being really committed to the run, Mr Downs.

what percentage is "committed to the run?"

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

the best teams in the country run the ball more often than they throw it.

Is that because they are winning the game based on establishing a balanced offense and those rushing numbers are skewed by 4th quarter play calls.

I documented Oregon's play calling when Helfrich and Frost were calling plays there. The plays calling was 50/50 for the first 3 quarters and 70/30 in the 4th quarter, which affected the total percentage, especially in years where they were winning 9+ games per season. If my memory serves, they were actually a 55% throwing team in the 1st quarter and potentially the 1st half.

 

[king_kong_]

Is that because they are winning the game based on establishing a balanced offense and those rushing numbers are skewed by 4th quarter play calls.

could be.

could also be that they are winning the game based on establishing a run-heavy offense to both take and maintain a lead.

a fun homework assignment for anyone whose interested.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

could be.

could also be that they are winning the game based on establishing a run-heavy offense to both take and maintain a lead.

a fun homework assignment for anyone whose interested.

I was interested and already did the homework for a team, for all appearances sake, looked like a team that was a run heavy team. Most of the runs were in the second half, when they had a lead and were running clock. The leads were established when they were passing more than they ran, or at a minimum, an equal amount of times as they ran.

 

[king_kong_]

I was interested and already did the homework for a team, for all appearances sake, looked like a team that was a run heavy team. Most of the runs were in the second half, when they had a lead and were running clock. The leads were established when they were passing more than they ran, or at a minimum, an equal amount of times as they ran.

So because Oregon did that 8 years ago it universally applies?

 

[c3o]

Clemson, Alabama, and LSU won their recent national championships in large part because of their hero QB/WR combinations.

This isn’t the 90s anymore, if your guy isnt good enough to be taking snaps on Sunday, you’re never gonna eclipse Pelini/Ferentz success

RB is a dying position relegated to guys who are too short/slow to play WR, and too short/stupid to play QB

quoted the wrong comment.

I'll do better next time.

maybe

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

So because Oregon did that 8 years ago it universally applies?

Yes, typically teams that are barely 60%/ 40% run/ pass AND win 9+ games in a season, will have closer to 65/35 or 70/30 in the 2nd half of games, after the games have been decided and those teams are running out the clock. A vast majority of teams that are winning 9+ games and barely have a 60/40 run ratio will be much closer to 50/50, in the first half when the game is still undecided.

It is simple, teams who are winning games aren't going to be throwing the ball unnecessarily in the second half of games. The run game will be called on more, the clock will run and the number of plays in the second half will be less because the clock doesn't stop as often.

It isn't rocket science

 

[drubendall]

View embedded media

No you don’t.

 

[king_kong_]

Yes, typically teams that are barely 60%/ 40% run/ pass AND win 9+ games in a season, will have closer to 65/35 or 70/30 in the 2nd half of games, after the games have been decided and those teams are running out the clock. A vast majority of teams that are winning 9+ games and barely have a 60/40 run ratio will be much closer to 50/50, in the first half when the game is still undecided.

It is simple, teams who are winning games aren't going to be throwing the ball unnecessarily in the second half of games. The run game will be called on more, the clock will run and the number of plays in the second half will be less because the clock doesn't stop as often.

It isn't rocket science

michigan last year ran 175 total plays to score their first TD and take a lead that they rarely relented

101 runs called, 74 passes called

58%, as opposed to their season long total of 61%. they'd run it more as the game wore on, because that's how physical attacks work - they wear their opponents down. something we used to know a little about.

they were very consistently run heavy, regardless of opponent, time in game, score, etc., etc., etc.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

michigan last year ran 175 total plays to score their first TD and take a lead that they rarely relented

101 runs called, 74 passes called

58%, as opposed to their season long total of 61%. they'd run it more as the game wore on, because that's how physical attacks work - they wear their opponents down. something we used to know a little about.

they were very consistently run heavy, regardless of opponent, time in game, score, etc., etc., etc.

So 1 drive per game is your rebuttal.

What did they do on the other 5-7 drives in the first half, how much did they throw on their other 1-2 TDs per game in the 1st half?

 

[king_kong_]

So 1 drive per game is your rebuttal.

What did they do on the other 5-7 drives in the first half, how much did they throw on their other 1-2 TDs per game in the 1st half?

nope.

first TD drive, when they took a lead they'd hold all game. sometimes this was 1 drive, more often it was 2+ and through the first quarter.

it won't get better, but you're very welcome to do this yourself. it seems like it'd be a good practice in the folly of universal application of unproven theories based on a team that was likely an extreme outlier 8 years ago.

or, perhaps it's michigan that's the outlier. either way, they ran the ball at a consistent clip all year long.

 

[RBigredMax]

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

nope.

first TD drive, when they took a lead they'd hold all game. sometimes this was 1 drive, more often it was 2+ and through the first quarter.

it won't get better, but you're very welcome to do this yourself. it seems like it'd be a good practice in the folly of universal application of unproven theories based on a team that was likely an extreme outlier 8 years ago.

or, perhaps it's michigan that's the outlier. either way, they ran the ball at a consistent clip all year long.

Michigan ran the ball 270 times in the first half of games, passed the ball 217 times or 55% of the time. In the second half and OT they ran the ball 293 times and passed the ball 144 times or 67% of the time. Overall they ran the ball 563 times out of 924 total plays or 61% of the time.

As I wrote, when the game was being decided, over the entire season, Michigan ran the ball 55% of the time in the first half and 57% of the time thru 3 quarters. If you look at just the 4th quarter and OT they ran the ball 73% of the time because they had a lead. They also ran 50 less plays in the 2nd half as they did 1st half.

It is pretty much on the same level as Oregon was for the 4 years I looked at their numbers.

 

[king_kong_]

Michigan ran the ball 270 times in the first half of games, passed the ball 217 times or 55% of the time. In the second half and OT they ran the ball 293 times and passed the ball 144 times or 67% of the time. Overall they ran the ball 563 times out of 924 total plays or 61% of the time.

As I wrote, when the game was being decided, over the entire season, Michigan ran the ball 55% of the time in the first half and 57% of the time thru 3 quarters. If you look at just the 4th quarter and OT they ran the ball 73% of the time because they had a lead. They also ran 50 less plays in the 2nd half as they did 1st half.

It is pretty much on the same level as Oregon was for the 4 years I looked at their numbers.

michigan's defense allowed 9.5 ppg last year.

the game was over when mich got to 10, not just arbitrarily "in the 1st half".

it's all good, sal. I enjoy these deep dives.

 

[RedMyMind]

michigan's defense allowed 9.5 ppg last year.

the game was over when mich got to 10, not just arbitrarily "in the 1st half".

it's all good, sal. I enjoy these deep dives.

I don't think you believe the things you type

 

[king_kong_]

I don't think you believe the things you type

his whole premise is "when the game is being decided".

they relinquished zero 9+ point leads all season.

when they got up by 2 scores, the game was no longer in question.

I'm not arguing anything. what he posted I assume is accurate.

throwing the ball 45% of the time puts mich barely in the top 100 in terms of run/pass ratio.

a run heavy team any which way you'd like to slice it.

I also can't believe this is a controversial opinion. you guys watched them play last year, no?

 

[RedMyMind]

his whole premise is "when the game is being decided".

they relinquished zero 9+ point leads all season.

when they got up by 2 scores, the game was no longer in question.

I'm not arguing anything. what he posted I assume is accurate.

throwing the ball 45% of the time puts mich barely in the top 100 in terms of run/pass ratio.

a run heavy team any which way you'd like to slice it.

I also can't believe this is a controversial opinion. you guys watched them play last year, no?

Everything you listed is in hindsight, not real time. I doubt they put things on cruise control after scoring 10 points. That is idiotic.
For all intents and purposes, they are a very balanced team, as most teams are, for a reason.

 

[king_kong_]

Everything you listed is in hindsight, not real time. I doubt they put things on cruise control after scoring 10 points. That is idiotic.
For all intents and purposes, they are a very balanced team, as most teams are, for a reason.

per the numbers, they didn't put it in cruise control, they opened the offense up and threw more after scoring their first TD, which they accomplished by running the ball on 58% of snaps.

in the context of offense in 2023 (where the spectrum of r/p ratio goes from 68%-35%), they were a run heavy team. again, per the numbers.

 

[RedMyMind]

per the numbers, they didn't put it in cruise control, they opened the offense up and threw more after scoring their first TD.

in the context of offense in 2023 (where the spectrum of r/p ratio goes from 68%-35%), they were a run heavy team. again, per the numbers.

"run heavy". They ran it practically half of the time when the game wasn't decided.

 

[king_kong_]

"run heavy". They ran it practically half of the time when the game wasn't decided.

"practically"

I prefer to be precise.

their games were over when they got up by 10+ points. they ran it >55% of the time to achieve those leads.

which, again, in the context of offense 2023, is run heavy.

not my opinion, simply what was.

thanks for the discussion. until next time.

 

[RedMyMind]

"practically"

I prefer to be precise.

their games were over when they got up by 10+ points. they ran it >55% of the time to achieve those leads.

which, again, in the context of offense 2023, is run heavy.

not my opinion, simply what was.

thanks for the discussion. until next time.

Is 51% run heavy as well?

 

[king_kong_]

Is 51% run heavy as well?

Nope.

 

[RedMyMind]

Nope.

52%?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

his whole premise is "when the game is being decided".

they relinquished zero 9+ point leads all season.

when they got up by 2 scores, the game was no longer in question.

I'm not arguing anything. what he posted I assume is accurate.

throwing the ball 45% of the time puts mich barely in the top 100 in terms of run/pass ratio.

a run heavy team any which way you'd like to slice it.

I also can't believe this is a controversial opinion. you guys watched them play last year, no?

When the game is being decided is a generic term meant to talk about when either team can still potentially win the game. Most games are not decided in the 1st half and many games aren't even decided in the 4th quarter.

My whole premise was that teams that run the ball on the season for 60% of the time, that number is skewed. Even Michigan ran the ball on average less in the first 3 quarters of their games than they did in the 4th quarter. The numbers don't lie.

Also funny how you mentioned me using a single Oregon team 8 years ago, yet your only counter to that was a single Michigan team.

 

[king_kong_]

52%?

Take the entire country’s run pass ratio and put them into thirds

Pass heavy
Balanced
Run heavy

All your questions will be answered

 

[RedMyMind]

Take the entire country’s run pass ratio and put them into thirds

Pass heavy
Balanced
Run heavy

All your questions will be answered

so you are grading on a scale, not absolute.

 

[king_kong_]

When the game is being decided is a generic term meant to talk about when either team can still potentially win the game. Most games are not decided in the 1st half and many games aren't even decided in the 4th quarter.

My whole premise was that teams that

Apologies.

I thought you actually meant when the game is in question, which for Michigan meant when they led by <10.

 

[king_kong_]

so you are grading on a scale, not absolute.

A run heavy team in 2023 looks different than a run heavy team in 1961, yes.

 

[RedMyMind]

A run heavy team in 2023 looks different than a run heavy team in 1961, yes.

the median run percentage for a "balanced" offense in 2023 is 52%. 55% is closer to balanced than run heavy.

 

[king_kong_]

the median run percentage for a "balanced" offense in 2023 is 52%. 55% is closer to balanced than run heavy.

median is 51.7%, sans outliers.

55% still ranks in the upper 3rd of rushing attempts. 58% obviously even moreso.

yes, closer to balanced than the most extreme run heavy teams, but run heavy nonetheless.