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- Thread starter RedMyMind
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Is that because they are winning the game based on establishing a balanced offense and those rushing numbers are skewed by 4th quarter play calls.
I documented Oregon's play calling when Helfrich and Frost were calling plays there. The plays calling was 50/50 for the first 3 quarters and 70/30 in the 4th quarter, which affected the total percentage, especially in years where they were winning 9+ games per season. If my memory serves, they were actually a 55% throwing team in the 1st quarter and potentially the 1st half.
could be.
could also be that they are winning the game based on establishing a run-heavy offense to both take and maintain a lead.
a fun homework assignment for anyone whose interested.
I was interested and already did the homework for a team, for all appearances sake, looked like a team that was a run heavy team. Most of the runs were in the second half, when they had a lead and were running clock. The leads were established when they were passing more than they ran, or at a minimum, an equal amount of times as they ran.
Yes, typically teams that are barely 60%/ 40% run/ pass AND win 9+ games in a season, will have closer to 65/35 or 70/30 in the 2nd half of games, after the games have been decided and those teams are running out the clock. A vast majority of teams that are winning 9+ games and barely have a 60/40 run ratio will be much closer to 50/50, in the first half when the game is still undecided.
It is simple, teams who are winning games aren't going to be throwing the ball unnecessarily in the second half of games. The run game will be called on more, the clock will run and the number of plays in the second half will be less because the clock doesn't stop as often.
It isn't rocket science
michigan last year ran 175 total plays to score their first TD and take a lead that they rarely relented
101 runs called, 74 passes called
58%, as opposed to their season long total of 61%. they'd run it more as the game wore on, because that's how physical attacks work - they wear their opponents down. something we used to know a little about.
they were very consistently run heavy, regardless of opponent, time in game, score, etc., etc., etc.
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So 1 drive per game is your rebuttal.
What did they do on the other 5-7 drives in the first half, how much did they throw on their other 1-2 TDs per game in the 1st half?
nope.
first TD drive, when they took a lead they'd hold all game. sometimes this was 1 drive, more often it was 2+ and through the first quarter.
it won't get better, but you're very welcome to do this yourself. it seems like it'd be a good practice in the folly of universal application of unproven theories based on a team that was likely an extreme outlier 8 years ago.
or, perhaps it's michigan that's the outlier. either way, they ran the ball at a consistent clip all year long.
Michigan ran the ball 270 times in the first half of games, passed the ball 217 times or 55% of the time. In the second half and OT they ran the ball 293 times and passed the ball 144 times or 67% of the time. Overall they ran the ball 563 times out of 924 total plays or 61% of the time.
As I wrote, when the game was being decided, over the entire season, Michigan ran the ball 55% of the time in the first half and 57% of the time thru 3 quarters. If you look at just the 4th quarter and OT they ran the ball 73% of the time because they had a lead. They also ran 50 less plays in the 2nd half as they did 1st half.
It is pretty much on the same level as Oregon was for the 4 years I looked at their numbers.
michigan's defense allowed 9.5 ppg last year.
the game was over when mich got to 10, not just arbitrarily "in the 1st half".
it's all good, sal. I enjoy these deep dives.
his whole premise is "when the game is being decided".
they relinquished zero 9+ point leads all season.
when they got up by 2 scores, the game was no longer in question.
I'm not arguing anything. what he posted I assume is accurate.
throwing the ball 45% of the time puts mich barely in the top 100 in terms of run/pass ratio.
a run heavy team any which way you'd like to slice it.
I also can't believe this is a controversial opinion. you guys watched them play last year, no?
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Everything you listed is in hindsight, not real time. I doubt they put things on cruise control after scoring 10 points. That is idiotic.
For all intents and purposes, they are a very balanced team, as most teams are, for a reason.
per the numbers, they didn't put it in cruise control, they opened the offense up and threw more after scoring their first TD, which they accomplished by running the ball on 58% of snaps.
in the context of offense in 2023 (where the spectrum of r/p ratio goes from 68%-35%), they were a run heavy team. again, per the numbers.
"run heavy". They ran it practically half of the time when the game wasn't decided.
"practically"
I prefer to be precise.
their games were over when they got up by 10+ points. they ran it >55% of the time to achieve those leads.
which, again, in the context of offense 2023, is run heavy.
not my opinion, simply what was.
thanks for the discussion. until next time.
When the game is being decided is a generic term meant to talk about when either team can still potentially win the game. Most games are not decided in the 1st half and many games aren't even decided in the 4th quarter.
My whole premise was that teams that run the ball on the season for 60% of the time, that number is skewed. Even Michigan ran the ball on average less in the first 3 quarters of their games than they did in the 4th quarter. The numbers don't lie.
Also funny how you mentioned me using a single Oregon team 8 years ago, yet your only counter to that was a single Michigan team.
Take the entire country’s run pass ratio and put them into thirds
Pass heavy
Balanced
Run heavy
All your questions will be answered
Apologies.
I thought you actually meant when the game is in question, which for Michigan meant when they led by <10.
the median run percentage for a "balanced" offense in 2023 is 52%. 55% is closer to balanced than run heavy.
median is 51.7%, sans outliers.
55% still ranks in the upper 3rd of rushing attempts. 58% obviously even moreso.
yes, closer to balanced than the most extreme run heavy teams, but run heavy nonetheless.
"generational talent"....and he hadn't even played a college game yet when the comment was made.
And your point is? He looked composed today. Obviously it will be tougher as the schedule comes along. But when have we ever had a 5 star QB with a a first game like this. Poor comment by you. Just own it
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