In the last 20 years of college football, there have been 224 Power Five Teams (incl. Notre Dame) who have finished a season with 4 or less wins. In those 224 cases, how often did the team win 10 or more regular season games the following year? Answer: 6 times.
Here are the teams who did it, and some color around how they did it - a combination of luck, new OC's, and a lot of returning starters.
6 Out of 224 Possibilities:
12 Wins: 2013 Auburn: In Guz Malzhans first year, Auburn goes from winless in the SEC the previous year to within 13 seconds of winning the National Championship in a magical season. The team was loaded with talent as the 4 previous recruiting classes were ranked 4th. 7th. 10th and 8th.
11 Wins: 2014 TCU: After losing 4 games by a field goal, and 7 overall, Gary Patterson fires his OC and hires Doug Meacham. With 16 returning starters (9 on offense), the offense improves from 91st to 2nd in the Country and goes on to win 11 games.
11 Wins: 2006 Wake Forest: In Jim Grobes 5th year, with 18 returning starters, Wake Forest goes from winning 4 games to winning 11 and the Conference championship (after being picked to finish last). Five of Wakes wins came in the following manner: 1) blocking a 28 yard field goal on last play of game, 2) stopping a tying 2pt conversion with under 5 minutes left in game, 3) kicking game winning filed goal with less than 3 minutes, 4) intercepting a pass in red zone on last play of game, 5) Intercepting pass in end zone on final drive.
10 Wins: 2016 Colorado: In Mike MacIntyre 4th season, after going 3-9 in the previous year, they returned 18 starters and unexpectedly finished 10-3. Both their offense and defense rank improved over 45 spots.
10 Wins: 2006 Arkansas: After going 4-7 in the previous year, Houston Nutt hires Gus Malzhan as his OC and goes 10-3. After getting clobbered at USC in its first game, Arkansas, lead by a powerful running attack with Darren McFadden, reals off 10 straight victories, which included a double OT over Alabama and a missed field goal by Vandy. Offense rank improves 50 spots.
10 Wins: 2005 Penn State: In 2004, in an unusual year, Penn State goes 4-7 despite holding every single opponent to 21 points or less. Returning 18 starters, with a top 5 defense, Penn State goes 10-1.
Note: Additionally, there were 6 teams in the last 20 yrs we able to win 9 games after winning 4 or less.
2018 Florida (19 returning starters)
2018 Syracuse (16 returning starters)
2017 Notre Dame (16 returning starters)
2017 Michigan State (11 returning starters)
2007 Illinois
2001 Washington State
Number of teams the last 20 years who have won 9 or more after losing 4 = 12.
Here are the teams who did it, and some color around how they did it - a combination of luck, new OC's, and a lot of returning starters.
6 Out of 224 Possibilities:
12 Wins: 2013 Auburn: In Guz Malzhans first year, Auburn goes from winless in the SEC the previous year to within 13 seconds of winning the National Championship in a magical season. The team was loaded with talent as the 4 previous recruiting classes were ranked 4th. 7th. 10th and 8th.
11 Wins: 2014 TCU: After losing 4 games by a field goal, and 7 overall, Gary Patterson fires his OC and hires Doug Meacham. With 16 returning starters (9 on offense), the offense improves from 91st to 2nd in the Country and goes on to win 11 games.
11 Wins: 2006 Wake Forest: In Jim Grobes 5th year, with 18 returning starters, Wake Forest goes from winning 4 games to winning 11 and the Conference championship (after being picked to finish last). Five of Wakes wins came in the following manner: 1) blocking a 28 yard field goal on last play of game, 2) stopping a tying 2pt conversion with under 5 minutes left in game, 3) kicking game winning filed goal with less than 3 minutes, 4) intercepting a pass in red zone on last play of game, 5) Intercepting pass in end zone on final drive.
10 Wins: 2016 Colorado: In Mike MacIntyre 4th season, after going 3-9 in the previous year, they returned 18 starters and unexpectedly finished 10-3. Both their offense and defense rank improved over 45 spots.
10 Wins: 2006 Arkansas: After going 4-7 in the previous year, Houston Nutt hires Gus Malzhan as his OC and goes 10-3. After getting clobbered at USC in its first game, Arkansas, lead by a powerful running attack with Darren McFadden, reals off 10 straight victories, which included a double OT over Alabama and a missed field goal by Vandy. Offense rank improves 50 spots.
10 Wins: 2005 Penn State: In 2004, in an unusual year, Penn State goes 4-7 despite holding every single opponent to 21 points or less. Returning 18 starters, with a top 5 defense, Penn State goes 10-1.
Note: Additionally, there were 6 teams in the last 20 yrs we able to win 9 games after winning 4 or less.
2018 Florida (19 returning starters)
2018 Syracuse (16 returning starters)
2017 Notre Dame (16 returning starters)
2017 Michigan State (11 returning starters)
2007 Illinois
2001 Washington State
Number of teams the last 20 years who have won 9 or more after losing 4 = 12.
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