OT: Brexit

[Soda Popinski]

So I'm kind of a nerd when it comes to international economics and I have my ideas about how this will affect both the EU and the UK. I just wonder what my fellow Americans think about this move. Also, hopefully this doesn't turn into Drumph vs Killary, because it is not my intent.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

You're living in a make believe world if you think this lasts very long before it's all about those two. What do you think of it?

 

[schuele]

The big question for me is whether Brexit triggers other big departures. If it's just the UK that leaves, it can probably settle into a place similar to Norway or Switzerland, which enjoy most of the regional trade benefits without all the burdens that come with EU membership. But if that happens, other big players will probably want to follow suit. Will certainly be interesting to watch.

 

[huskerfan1414]

This is good for the u.k.

 

[chicolby]

Don't see how it's good at all, but seems like people have this feeling that the world is not as good as it used to be when all other evidence suggests that it is. So what we have is a desire to close things off and go back in time when we all know that is a pipe dream only.

 

[Soda Popinski]

I never really understood the UK's membership in the first place if they weren't going to participate in the fiscal side of the EU. As long as they don't regulate themselves to death going forward, they should be able to compete in international markets just like they have been.

 

[Bremser]

Beginning of the end of the EU. Scotland will win independence. Pressures of Greece (and Spain, Italy and all other makeshift economies...) will stir up anti EU sentiment from other strong EU economies until one or two more exit eventually for lack of desire/ability to fund the heavy socialism in the less strong economies. No big.

 

[mwulf]

Ive been told that as a visitor to London the exchange rate from Pound to Dollar is more friendly than it has been in the past

 

[otismotis08]

Every man (and country) for themselves.

 

[SnohomishRed]

So I'm kind of a nerd when it comes to international economics and I have my ideas about how this will affect both the EU and the UK. I just wonder what my fellow Americans think about this move. Also, hopefully this doesn't turn into Drumph vs Killary, because it is not my intent.

This is not just about Britain leaving the EU - This is symptomatic of larger issues around the world. I think in years ahead history will look back at this event as the start of unraveling of the EU. How this affects the US in the long haul is hard to say but probably not good. However I think many of the same problems this vote are exposing are present in the US and the rest of the world as well. In the short haul lower rates and lower mortgage rates for sure

Historic times imo

 

[jeans15]

Don't see how it's good at all, but seems like people have this feeling that the world is not as good as it used to be when all other evidence suggests that it is. So what we have is a desire to close things off and go back in time when we all know that is a pipe dream only.

This is why they are leaving.....millions of people displaced from their country , middle classes are being destroyed, corporate globalist are getting rich, bureaucrats are getting rich, perpetual war all over the world, terrorism on the rise, violent crime on the rise...and you want us to believe the world is getting better?

People are tired of people selling pipe dreams and tired of watching foreigners disrespect the country they live in, then calling them racists and bigots for being proud of their homeland.

This is a middle finger to liberal policies as well.

 

[nebcountry]

I know very little about the EU. Seems like it would be predestined to failure given that some countries want to live beyond their means, using a currency that is shared with other countries.

Things I've read about Brexit, or at least what is portrayed in the media, seems like quite a bit of social issues. Looks like the Brits reached their breaking point. And I see no shame it, the idea of autonomous self-governance.

On a side note, one of my grand dads came here from Poland when he was in his 20's. When I was a little kid, I asked him to talk to me in Polish. To which he replied, "I'm an American, I don't speak Polish anymore".

 

[HuskerO]

Don't see how it's good at all, but seems like people have this feeling that the world is not as good as it used to be when all other evidence suggests that it is. So what we have is a desire to close things off and go back in time when we all know that is a pipe dream only.

The UK breaking away doesn't mean this world is getting worse or that it's not good.

 

[huskerfan1000]

Great day for the Uk and hopefully a mass awakening world wide.

 

[CanuckChuck]

This is why they are leaving.....millions of people displaced from their country , middle classes are being destroyed, corporate globalist are getting rich, bureaucrats are getting rich, perpetual war all over the world, terrorism on the rise, violent crime on the rise...and you want us to believe the world is getting better?

People are tired of people selling pipe dreams and tired of watching foreigners disrespect the court try they live in, then calling the racists and bigots for being proud of their homeland.

This is a middle finger to liberal policies as well.

And it once again shows how easy it is to get poor and middle class people to vote against their economic interests.

CC

 

[Soda Popinski]

This is not just about Britain leaving the EU - This is symptomatic of larger issues around the world. I think in years ahead history will look back at this event as the start of unraveling of the EU. How this affects the US in the long haul is hard to say but probably not good. However I think many of the same problems this vote are exposing are present in the US and the rest of the world as well. In the short haul lower rates and lower mortgage rates for sure

Historic times imo

It will be a much bigger risk and headache for anyone on the Euro to leave the EU, so I'm not saying you're wrong, but issuing (or reissuing) a new currency and predicting its value is like jumping into a black hole, economically speaking. For the UK, this involved an adjustment to the value of the pound, which is relatively simple to predict.

 

[jeans15]

And it once again shows how easy it is to get poor and middle class people to vote against their economic interests.

CC

All depends on your economic POV.

Voting to have poor people to come into your country to be forever poor doesn't make much sense to me either.

 

[Soda Popinski]

And it once again shows how easy it is to get poor and middle class people to vote against their economic interests.

CC

Hmm trying to figure out how this argument makes sense. So you think the competition across global markets has helped the low and middle class in a country like the UK?

 

[semper fi 3]

Your fellow Americans are getting their collective butts kicked by the market today and a whole weekend to over think it .Most will not do anything today but watch out Monday . George ,Thomas and the sons of liberty are not going to be riding to the rescue I don't believe. Damm those redcoats don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes.

 

[TheBeav815]

I can tell you the stock market seemed to think it's not good for the UK and not good for the EU last I saw. I'm not aware that those guys cheer for any particular political team.

 

[SnohomishRed]

It will be a much bigger risk and headache for anyone on the Euro to leave the EU, so I'm not saying you're wrong, but issuing (or reissuing) a new currency and predicting its value is like jumping into a black hole, economically speaking. For the UK, this involved an adjustment to the value of the pound, which is relatively simple to predict.

Depends on the country - Greece is different than Germany. The strong countries economically and fiscally would do just fine. I think the issue going forward is how Britain does with this. If after some turmoil they stay the same or better then the German people will maybe be rethinking being involved with Greece or Spain or Italy. The French have never liked anyone and could jump ship just because they are stupid

 

[TheBeav815]

Depends on the country - Greece is different than Germany. The strong countries economically and fiscally would do just fine. I think the issue going forward is how Britain does with this. If after some turmoil they stay the same or better then the German people will maybe be rethinking being involved with Greece or Spain or Italy. The French have never liked anyone and could jump ship just because they are stupid

The real question IMO is what it means for the desire of other countries to be part of the EU and whether it sets off a domino effect. I don't think the results will be as great as the leavers think or as catastrophic as the stayers think if it's just Britain that leaves. But if a few other powerful economies decide they don't like the EU, either, that could become problematic.

 

[Husker.Wed.]

I think the suits in Brussels probably regret forcing all member countries to outlaw electric teapots in the interest of stopping "climate change". You don't mess with Brits' tea.

Oh, and BTW, IBTL

 

[TheBeav815]

I think the suits in Brussels probably regret forcing all member countries to outlaw electric teapots in the interest of stopping "climate change". You don't mess with Brits' tea.

Oh, and BTW, IBTL

....is that seriously a thing that happened?

 

[Husker.Wed.]

....is that seriously a thing that happened?

On the drawing board

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/506749/European-ban-on-household-goods

 

[sparky62]

This is good for the u.k.

Tell that to the US Markets today. OUCH.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Iceland did something practically similar to this a few years back when they declared bankruptcy and repudiated their debt. almost a decade later they're fine. anyone who wants to say this is "voting against self interest" doesn't understand the concept of a people desiring individual freedoms and not collective slavery. in other words, not everyone wants to follow the "safe and slave" path -- and i mean that as harsh as it sounds.

you don't fix problems by trying to bury them with printing and forcing people into bond-servitude -- which is for all intents and purposes practically the same as indentured servitude was back in the day. all you're doing is empowering bureaucracy and bankers and politicians.

this was the first step in breaking the worldwide banking oligarchy. i'm not saying it's a perfect step but you have to start somewhere.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Also needs to be said: 2008, the bankruptcies in huge banks, etc., are NOTHING compared to the shock that just happened and the potential fallout.

IMO this is the bear stearns of a new crash.

Hold onto your hats.

 

[TheBeav815]

Also needs to be said: 2008, the bankruptcies in huge banks, etc., are NOTHING compared to the shock that just happened and the potential fallout.

IMO this is the bear stearns of a new crash.

Hold onto your hats.

Are the indicators in the Euro Zone that bad? Every time I walk by the TV at work they're yapping about oil futures again or talking about Apple.

 

[Soda Popinski]

Also needs to be said: 2008, the bankruptcies in huge banks, etc., are NOTHING compared to the shock that just happened and the potential fallout.

IMO this is the bear stearns of a new crash.

Hold onto your hats.

I don't agree with this, at all. I think this is a correction that will be old news by next month.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Are the indicators in the Euro Zone that bad? Every time I walk by the TV at work they're yapping about oil futures again or talking about Apple.

the worldwide debt levels are worse than 1929 (have been for most of a decade). the markets are artificially propped up with printed money. the central banks have proven they'll do anything to keep things from going kaput -- which only increases volatility because nobody has a clue what the words "market pricing" even mean anymore because everything is manipulated. gold and silver have been heading mostly upward despite all the pundits saying it's stupid (as if the pundits would ever say anything other than gold and silver are bad investments). the US dollar is a 'haven' but we've got the most debt and are the most financially screwed up of the bunch

i don't know what else needs to be said. the only question is "when" something like that blows up, not "if". and the worst part is that little paragraph barely scratches the surface.

and a shock like this makes bear stearns look tiny. that was something like the 5th biggest investment bank -- this is currency crash which is an ocean in comparison to a tiny lake.

if i'm wrong i'm wrong, but seriously... not a good combination.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

I don't agree with this, at all. I think this is a correction that will be old news by next month.

so was bear sterns. until it wasn't. you don't think any banks were leveraged to all hell and got hurt badly with currency leverage, do you?

because to me, that seems like par for the course and things just got CRUSHED. the leverage on currencies is insane and moves like this ... let's just say "BOOM" is probably mild.

like i said, if i'm wrong i'm wrong but this has serious currency meltdown potential -- which makes a few banks going bankrupt look stupidly juvenile in comparison.

 

[Soda Popinski]

so was bear sterns. until it wasn't. you don't think any banks were leveraged to all hell and got hurt badly with currency leverage, do you?

because to me, that seems like par for the course and things just got CRUSHED. the leverage on currencies is insane and moves like this ... let's just say "BOOM" is probably mild.

like i said, if i'm wrong i'm wrong but this has serious currency meltdown potential -- which makes a few banks going bankrupt look stupidly juvenile in comparison.

I understand what you're saying, but 2008 also had lightening to go with the thunder in subprime mortgages. UK dropping out of the EU is relatively simple compared to having horribly overvalued assets that nobody understood how to manage.

 

[TheBeav815]

so was bear sterns. until it wasn't. you don't think any banks were leveraged to all hell and got hurt badly with currency leverage, do you?

because to me, that seems like par for the course and things just got CRUSHED. the leverage on currencies is insane and moves like this ... let's just say "BOOM" is probably mild.

like i said, if i'm wrong i'm wrong but this has serious currency meltdown potential -- which makes a few banks going bankrupt look stupidly juvenile in comparison.

Well part of the question with all of that is what will people put their faith in. In the case of '08 and Bear Sterns, the dominos could have kept falling, but it was propped up by the govt. Which as we know is running a huge debt, so the bailout took place not so much in money as the promise of the idea of money.

I don't disagree with the notion that a lot of huge entities are passing the check around and hoping not to be the one holding it when the music stops playing. If that triggers people to panic and run the banks, stuff their money in the mattress, etc. then that's a hell of a problem. The last one could have been a hell of a lot worse if not for the bailout, and we live in an era of bailouts because we know that it's worse to let the dominos fall than it is to clean up the mess.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

I understand what you're saying, but 2008 also had lightening to go with the thunder in subprime mortgages. UK dropping out of the EU is relatively simple compared to having horribly overvalued assets that nobody understood how to manage.

Really? Debt levels worse than 1929 doesn't count as lightning to go with the thunder? Leverage on currencies being up to 50-1? Last i checked, 30-1 or so leverage is what did in bear stearns.

if i'm wrong i'm wrong, but come on... crashes can be up as well as down (currency crash has nominal values go up, but value go down... the crash will happen regardless).

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Well part of the question with all of that is what will people put their faith in. In the case of '08 and Bear Sterns, the dominos could have kept falling, but it was propped up by the govt. Which as we know is running a huge debt, so the bailout took place not so much in money as the promise of the idea of money.

I don't disagree with the notion that a lot of huge entities are passing the check around and hoping not to be the one holding it when the music stops playing. If that triggers people to panic and run the banks, stuff their money in the mattress, etc. then that's a hell of a problem. The last one could have been a hell of a lot worse if not for the bailout, and we live in an era of bailouts because we know that it's worse to let the dominos fall than it is to clean up the mess.

Currency crash would go the other direction -- i'm not saying that it has to be a 1929 or 2008 scenario. but something awful could very easily happen here. euro goes kaput which keeps food/resources/oil high, then afterwards, dollar collapses because people realize we're worse -- late 1970s scenario only on steroids.

the point here isn't that history repeats, but a loud echo needs to be pointed out. there's bad stuff happening here.

 

[NikkiSixx]

People want to be independent. They don't want to pay to bail out some other country. They don't want some other group making their rules. They don't want some administrator telling them how many muslims they have to let in, they want the ability to charge a tariff if they see fit. They don't want to live in the new world order, subjected to everyone else's laws. I think this is more about nations wanting to be more self sufficient again.

This is one of the big problems of the new world order/one government thing.. you lose the ability to make your own laws. When all your electronics come from China, you are at their mercy. When all the oil came from the middle east, we were at their mercy. This is more of a start back to being self sufficient as a country again. If you hadn't noticed, other EU countries threatened England with trade wars if they left.. how nice was that? others trying to tell them what to do.

Good for England. I hope Trump does the same for us. We need to become self reliant again.

 

[Soda Popinski]

Currency crash would go the other direction -- i'm not saying that it has to be a 1929 or 2008 scenario. but something awful could very easily happen here. euro goes kaput which keeps food/resources/oil high, then afterwards, dollar collapses because people realize we're worse -- late 1970s scenario only on steroids.

the point here isn't that history repeats, but a loud echo needs to be pointed out. there's bad stuff happening here.

Why does the euro go kaput again? I realize everything is interconnected so there will be some instability and uncertainty, but I fail to see how the value of the euro will nose-dive because the pound is worth-less in comparison.

 

[Kleitusbpn]

Why does the euro go kaput again? I realize everything is interconnected so there will be some instability and uncertainty, but I fail to see how the value of the euro will nose-dive because the pound is worth-less in comparison.

if it breaks up it's worthless. if they have another banking crisis due to britain leaving (and i see that as fairly likely), at some point who has the confidence to stay?

i don't know... maybe it doesn't. the thing is... germany doesn't like holding up all those countries with crap economies who want all these handouts. i've got a few friends there and they LOATHE merkel. now, that's not the be-all-end-all and it's a bit of hearsay versus the polls, but still -- this won't be the first country to leave. i find it VERY hard to believe that britain is the only domino to fall.

it all depends on the fallout in the end. but to me... like i said, this will cause way bigger waves than bear stearns did and that nearly brought the world to our knees. i don't see how we're solid enough to take this much of a body blow. if i'm wrong, i'm honestly fairly happy about it.

 

[schuele]

Why does the euro go kaput again? I realize everything is interconnected so there will be some instability and uncertainty, but I fail to see how the value of the euro will nose-dive because the pound is worth-less in comparison.

Euro isn't likely to nose-dive, but it will come under pressure because EU members sell a lot of goods into the UK, and will want to keep doing so. Same reason you see countries that export to China devaluing their currencies when the yuan loses value.

Much bigger leap to say the dollar is going to crash. Do not see that happening anytime soon.