ADVERTISEMENT

OT- Bitcoin

It's just strange that a lot of you guys talk about holding until X and then you sell at Y but don't tell anyone until 3 months after the fact. Although that's not real weird in the investing game, other asset flippers do the same thing I suppose.
Why is that strange? I'm not offering advice. But I am making it known what I have done and what I plan on doing. I'm trading with money that I can lose. I'm not dicking with my 401k or IRA.

I have made known where I messed up, where I plan on going, and I do reserve my right to change my strategy based on rumors and news. I zoom out almost exclusively like Bigred22 says to do when in doubt. I don't follow candles. I don't follow the MACD. I do follow the DOW.

I follow the product. Blockchain tech isn't going to disappear anytime soon. Maybe something will come along and replace it in the future....and I'll hopefully be smart enough to throw in 100 bucks on the ground floor next time.
 
Why is that strange? I'm not offering advice. But I am making it known what I have done and what I plan on doing. I'm trading with money that I can lose. I'm not dicking with my 401k or IRA.

I have made known where I messed up, where I plan on going, and I do reserve my right to change my strategy based on rumors and news. I zoom out almost exclusively like Bigred22 says to do when in doubt. I don't follow candles. I don't follow the MACD. I do follow the DOW.

I follow the product. Blockchain tech isn't going to disappear anytime soon. Maybe something will come along and replace it in the future....and I'll hopefully be smart enough to throw in 100 bucks on the ground floor next time.
I said it's not real weird...it's the same behavior lots of people exhibit.
 
Solana has been killing it buying the dip . I’ll be quicker to take some profits this time around

Thought you sold and I was a dumbass?

Hold that shit to $750-$1,000. Last two cycles from BTC halvening to top of bull is like 550 days. That puts this bull cycle ending 6 months from April 2025. Or October 2025. The 2013 cycle was only 365 days to top from halvening. So this is a range. The real marker to check is when BTC hits its last ATH ($69k), from there it’s usually 8-9 months I believe (I’ll check on this and report back).

EDIT: Confirmed crypto bull cycle last 8-10 months from the last cycles ATH. In this case $69k for BTC. So good metric to gauge timeframe for you exit strategies.

I re-entered 50% today at $100 SOL, left 50% in cash to see if we hit the $35k BTC leading up to April halvening. If we do I’ll unload the rest, and then just chill.

SOL just broke out of the top line on a downward wedge, and tomorrow is Jupiter airdrop which is going to put a lot of liquidity into the SOL ecosystem. If you have a Web3 wallet (Phantom for SOL) but JUP below $1, and sell around $3.
 
Last edited:
Thought you sold and I was a dumbass?

Hold that shit to $750-$1,000. Last two cycles from BTC halvening to top of bull is like 550 days. That puts this bull cycle ending 6 months from April 2025. Or October 2025. The 2013 cycle was only 365 days. So this is a range. The real market to check is when BTC hits its last ATH ($69k), from there it’s usually 8-9 months I believe (I’ll check on this and report back).

I re-entered 50% today at $100 SOL, left 50 in cash to see if we hit the $35k BTC leading up to April halvening. If we do I’ll unload the rest, and then just chill.
No.. you sold at 105 while telling everyone else to buy. Thought you weren’t gonna buy unless it got down to 72?
 
Amazing podcast to understand a very zoomed out view of global macroeconomics in 2024 and how crypto plays in. Also ties in tech, AI, and how this will be the next bet of a lifetime this next decade (wait for correction, don't buy anything now for tech stocks).

Real Vision are not "crypto bros". They are macro/hedge fund guys who are bullish on crypto and fit it into the business cycle, macro secular trends, etc.



Real Vision has an Essential package for $179/year which is essentially free money.


There is a video How to Chart Bitcoin's Path Forward with Peter Brandt where he breaks down the historical BTC chart. For those who think crypto is casino money, this video and the one above are two great areas to start and become educated.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sinomatic
No.. you sold at 105 while telling everyone else to buy. Thought you weren’t gonna buy unless it got down to 72?

I wish I could post screenshots in here....below link should hopefully work

That was my plan, and then plans change when trading based on charts. I think it's possible $79 will be the last low for SOL this cycle, which was my reason not waiting until $72.

https://postimg.cc/tnVj5gd2

SOL was showing a descending wedge which then broke above the top trendline, which is very bullish as a continuation of it's upward move. If you look at SOL with Elliot Wave, this could signify the beginning of a 3rd wave (which is always the longest and most vertical)...so I entered at a pullback from $106 to $100 to protect my upside. Left 50% on the sidelines to see how it plays out. I'll either enter the 50% if/when we see continuation of Wave 2, or wait for confirmation we are Wave 3 and then probably enter once we break past last ATH of $126 and on the next pullback from there. Then I'm riding it to $750 - $1,000.

If you fit Fib retracement levels onto the chart, $79 fits perfect with the 0.5 retracement level, which means Wave 2 is done. Last two cycle BTC has done a 0.618 retracement leading up to BTC halvening (puts BTC at like $35k or so) before it begins it's 3rd wave uptrend. A 0.618 retracement for SOL here assumed Wave 2 is not done, and SOL will retrace to around $69, before it starts it's Wave 3. If this plays out I'll enter my other 50% at this level. If I do this my average price for SOL is $85 and I ride it up to $750 - $1,000. I start taken profits around 8-10 months past BTC hitting it's ATH from last cycle and/or BTC hitting $130k-$140k range.

https://postimg.cc/jC7gT1Xp

Impulse Elliot Waves have 5 waves. 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5. Up, retrace, longest up, retrace, and then final up. I'm fairly new to analyzing charts with Elliot Waves and Fib levels, but it's insane how accurate they are most of the time. They are subjective to how you analyze them, but they show up everywhere is historical charts and give pretty damn good guidance.

EDIT: After doing this analysis fully now on Feb retracement levels, I'm not liking my entrance at $100 SOL quite as much, but I don't hate it. 2nd wave seems premature to be over already, and would mean a shorter bull cycle for crypto (which doesn't feel right to me, as I think we are going to see an SPX correction to 3,500 - 3,800 range Q1/Q2 of this year, followed by a pretty mad bull market through end of 2025).

https://postimg.cc/McMhyWC9

No matter how you look at it, you have to try really hard to analyze this first upward move for crypto as anything other than Wave 1 of an Elliot Impulse Wave. Which means we are now in Wave 2 correction (probably aligning to a SPX correction), followed by a facking made bull cycle starting with a Wave 3.

TLDR - Just buy SOL rn and enjoy the ride. Perhaps wait for a dip in the $70 range, but even if you don't, as long as you hold through bull, will be an amazing trade. Feel free to apply my logic to other coins. Personally I feel SOL and AVAX have the most upside with smallest amount of risk. Eth and BTC will be good, but not great.
 
Last edited:
I bought sol at 19, 23, 35 and 50...

I could have bought it at like 10..but I was kinda scared cause at the time
1. sol was tied to ftx (they were literally next to ftx in the Bahamas)
2. sol crashed a few times , which is ok for a gaming crypto but not so much for finance..
3. alot of ftx had sol tied up and there was worry when folk got access to their sol they would dump
 
I bought sol at 19, 23, 35 and 50...

I could have bought it at like 10..but I was kinda scared cause at the time
1. sol was tied to ftx (they were literally next to ftx in the Bahamas)
2. sol crashed a few times , which is ok for a gaming crypto but not so much for finance..
3. alot of ftx had sol tied up and there was worry when folk got access to their sol they would dump

Yeah. would have took some major balls to put a lot of money into SOL at $10 at it's low. It seemed all but dead. As you said was the "FTX coin".

Your 2 is interesting, as I believe the main driver of SOL will be finance. It's simple, fast AF and cheap costs per transactions. Almost all of my bullishness on SOL comes from folks who know way more than I do being bullish on SOL.

"I wanted to create a blockchain that NASDAQ could run on" - first principle vision for Anatole Yakovenko when building Solana. With 1.2 million tps and sub penny costs per transaction this becomes possible. It's also insanely easy to use for brining new users into the space. They have and will continue to make upgrades that improve the reliability of Solana over time. People forget how many hiccups Ethereum had it's first cycle. If you are an app builder in Web3, there are applications you can build on SOL you simply can't build on any other blockchain layer 1 (possibly on Layer 2s, but I'm not very sold on Layer 2s. Way too damn complex)
 
  • Like
Reactions: redwine65
I bought sol at 19, 23, 35 and 50...

I could have bought it at like 10..but I was kinda scared cause at the time
1. sol was tied to ftx (they were literally next to ftx in the Bahamas)
2. sol crashed a few times , which is ok for a gaming crypto but not so much for finance..
3. alot of ftx had sol tied up and there was worry when folk got access to their sol they would dump

Also, amazing buys on SOL.
 
Dude....I'm just saying that's great that you say that, but if something crazy happens and everything crashes, people that make those kind of public proclamations tend to pop into their old threads and say they sold three months before the crash. Someone did it earlier in this very thread. Come on, it's basic pump and dump stuff. It's fine, I don't care either way as I do my own DD, it's just interesting that cyber, stocks, options, real estate....all the behaviors by the players are the same.
Let's make a quote here

"It's just strange that a lot of you guys talk about holding until X and then you sell at Y but don't tell anyone until 3 months after the fact. Although that's not real weird in the investing game, other asset flippers do the same thing I suppose"

When someone responds with this and I am on record telling you a hold till date that hasn't even happened yet... how is your comment even relevant? 2025 is eleven months from now, so how could I possibly be "3 months after the fact"?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: cornhustler
This is very naive and scary people actual think this way.

It’s also the antithesis to what crypto represents.

I don’t want the government to have a damn thing to do with my crypto assets. You want to tax my gains, no problem. But nothing more.
If there’s trillions of dollars, parked in crypto, what are the odds that the government one day just crushes the whole thing and federalizes it?
 
Don't take it personally bigred22, it's not just you. It's everyone all the time. People act in their own self interest instead of what they say they're going to do publicly.
 
If there’s trillions of dollars, parked in crypto, what are the odds that the government one day just crushes the whole thing and federalizes it?
I got nothing man... because crypto isn't Governed. It is a World based system! The US government has no say to federalize it, because they don't have the authority to do so. If they want out, they are screwed and will no longer have the upper hand in finance.

Edit: If the government said US citizens can no longer use Cryptocurrency, guess what that currency is still there and I would have to go to another country that legalizes it and withdraw. This is a move that would piss off a massive amount of US citizens. Probably to the point of moving to where it is legal.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: drubendall
It makes too much sense that mainstream finance would attempt to artificially crash the crypto markets. The other side of me says if they want to crash it, they probably have the power to. That being said it is still looking good. Hopefully nobody sold their @dsmalls coin yet because GSOL just ripped out and back into it’s uptrend channel, up 20% currently and BTC is also rebounding as predicted ITT. I am still holding both.

For full disclosure, I lost money on the INTC earnings play I posted due to bad forward guidance from the company. I also shorted the market a few minutes ago via /ES at 4925 with short contacts and sold 4890 calls expiring in 9 days. I believe the high of day is in and the low may not be as it is poor. Stay tuned

It's just strange that a lot of you guys talk about holding until X and then you sell at Y but don't tell anyone until 3 months after the fact. Although that's not real weird in the investing game, other asset flippers do the same thing I suppose.

If you’ve followed the thread I’ve made several trades that I post here minutes later and update when I’m still in stuff. Like this one: I just closed my /ES shorts 2 minutes ago at 4878. I posted minutes after opening them on Monday and this was a 47 point gain for me in the market while everyone else lost money.

I also got into Natural Gas futures long today and will likely get out whenever it doubles in price.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dsmalls3
If there’s trillions of dollars, parked in crypto, what are the odds that the government one day just crushes the whole thing and federalizes it?
Good luck with that.

Blockchain isn't something only Americans know how to make. They have no absolute power over places like Russia, China, India.

Put a naked picture of your wife on the internet in all countries and see if you can actually get that back homie. (Don't actually do this)

You can't control it like that. You're going to have every rogue programmer making blockchain just to thumb their nose at the US Gov.
 
Good luck with that.

Blockchain isn't something only Americans know how to make. They have no absolute power over places like Russia, China, India.

Put a naked picture of your wife on the internet in all countries and see if you can actually get that back homie. (Don't actually do this)

You can't control it like that. You're going to have every rogue programmer making blockchain just to thumb their nose at the US Gov.
What happens if the super powers, and most of the first world countries, make it illegal to use crypto?
 
What happens if the super powers, and most of the first world countries, make it illegal to use crypto?
Considering the BRICS nations are TRYING to upend the US dollar in any way possible, that's the whole point of the BRICS, what do you think is actually going to happen?
 
I really don't know. Govts don't like giving up control...I do know that.
Then I better vote for those that are going to deliver back to me the liberty our Creator gave us specifically outlined and also implied according to the spirit in the Declaration of Independance and according to the Constitution.

Such as search and seizure of information on all platforms regardless of whether or not they were invented in 1700 or 2024 without warrant and just cause and due course. So not just quill and parchment. But on all digital platforms as well. And any other platform which might be invented in the future. They should respect mine and your privacy or they should be deemed unfit to execute governance.
 
If there’s trillions of dollars, parked in crypto, what are the odds that the government one day just crushes the whole thing and federalizes it?

At least for BTC, the only way to “control” it would be to regulate and tax it to death. If the US is dumb enough to do this, there are other countries that will welcome Web3 companies with open arms. This is already happening to an extent but has been a lot of progress made versus Gary Gensler and his cronies at SEC.

From a technical perspective they could shut down mining. But again, it would move somewhere else. It’s a fully decentralized network and there are currently 15,879 nodes running. You only need 1 to keep it going, but you need over a 50% approval from all nodes to make any recommended changes (for example, shutting down). It will never happen. It’s a thing of beauty.
 
Man, Cardano looks like it is stuck in between stations like LTC.

So I am eyeballing Oasis, Cardano, Joe, and Sol as my next buys if/when I see a sub 40k BTC dip.

Anybody know anything I should about those that would be concerning?
 
Man, Cardano looks like it is stuck in between stations like LTC.

So I am eyeballing Oasis, Cardano, Joe, and Sol as my next buys if/when I see a sub 40k BTC dip.

Anybody know anything I should about those that would be concerning?
You all know I am all about Cardano as I have built on it
 
How is it compared to Solana? Aren't Solana and Cardano an Ethereum type blockchains?
They are similar in the sense that they both have ecosystems, but they are built with different languages. Solana currently has cheaper and faster transactions, but Cardano is built with security in mind first. It is also built scale up and will get faster and cheaper. I also like Hoskinson a lot and his vision of the blockchain too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sinomatic
They are similar in the sense that they both have ecosystems, but they are built with different languages. Solana currently has cheaper and faster transactions, but Cardano is built with security in mind first. It is also built scale up and will get faster and cheaper. I also like Hoskinson a lot and his vision of the blockchain too.
Solana is said to not be secure and too centralized.

Cardano promises a lot, delivers little. If it's not fast in 2024, when?
 
Solana is said to not be secure and too centralized.

Cardano promises a lot, delivers little. If it's not fast in 2024, when?
It is fast, 1000TPS is fast enough to do what they need currently and it is going to continue to get faster.

I use it EVERY day!

  1. It takes me about 5 minutes to send ADA from my wallet to the CEX and then from the CEX into my bank account.
  2. It takes about 15-30 seconds to buy and sell and NFT
  3. It takes about 15-30 seconds to swap Tokens on a DEX like Minswap, Muesliswap, Wing Riders and Sundae Swap
  4. It takes about 5 minutes to run one of our Tournaments that are done by using 4 Smart Contracts that run each fight.
  5. It takes about 30 seconds to about 2 minutes to mint an NFT and that is for a hot one. One that is slow it takes 15-30 seconds
Cardano is plenty fast, and has plenty of utility on it's ecosystem.

Not to mention Solana suffered yet another Outage
 
It is fast, 1000TPS is fast enough to do what they need currently and it is going to continue to get faster.

I use it EVERY day!

  1. It takes me about 5 minutes to send ADA from my wallet to the CEX and then from the CEX into my bank account.
  2. It takes about 15-30 seconds to buy and sell and NFT
  3. It takes about 15-30 seconds to swap Tokens on a DEX like Minswap, Muesliswap, Wing Riders and Sundae Swap
  4. It takes about 5 minutes to run one of our Tournaments that are done by using 4 Smart Contracts that run each fight.
  5. It takes about 30 seconds to about 2 minutes to mint an NFT and that is for a hot one. One that is slow it takes 15-30 seconds
Cardano is plenty fast, and has plenty of utility on it's ecosystem.

Not to mention Solana suffered yet another Outage
1000tps might sound fast, but it's going to need to be a lot faster.

Solana outages are common.
 
1000tps might sound fast, but it's going to need to be a lot faster.

Solana outages are common.
It is fast, and will be faster. It is about half the speed of Credit Cards so it isn't terrible. Comparing it to Bitcoin and Ethereum it is like lightning.

 
  • Like
Reactions: Sinomatic
It is fast, and will be faster. It is about half the speed of Credit Cards so it isn't terrible. Comparing it to Bitcoin and Ethereum it is like lightning.

Isn't visa at 160,000tps?

Nobody is using Bitcoin to build on because it's so slow. People stopped building on ethereum because of speed and gas fees.
 
Isn't visa at 160,000tps?

Nobody is using Bitcoin to build on because it's so slow. People stopped building on ethereum because of speed and gas fees.
The most transactions ever made in a 24hr period on any blockchain is 50.3 Million

1000TPS is 86.4 Million per day

Cardano nor any blockchain for that matter needs more than a 1000 any time soon

 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT