OT- Bitcoin
- Thread starter redwine65
- Start date
Amazing he's still alive. Clearly hasn't had a visit from Hillary yet.
I’ll be curious to see how btc performs in recession.. will be fun to watch
this is alot like, me, telling, everyone, Rhule N....
what we have here is a lack of communication, some have to learn the hard way...
BTC N
what we have here is a lack of communication, some have to learn the hard way...
BTC N
If you think that was the bottom, just let us know when you sell in the coming months. I'm looking for a local top here between current price and ~25k, and if not there, it will be a major test at ~32k. If it clears 32k I'll be more inclined to believe you were right.
S&P also quickly arriving at a potential local top here. Interesting that Bitcoin and the stock market are still so correlated. All the risk assets have squeezed nicely the past few months. Perhaps a little more covering before we drop, but I am still anticipating a major reversal from here.
This is not financial advice just my observations on the market.
Hillary's getting a little bit old for this. Who's the new Hillary? Is it Susan Rice? I think it's Susan Rice.
I'd like to see a slow grind up the foothills ahead, up a grand, retracement, up a grand, retracement...till we get to the bull run mountain..then hang on.
As you can see, absolutely beautiful follow through. S&P also sputtering downward from the time of this post. Lots of fear spreading the past few days in the crypto space...
We might see one more fakeout to the upside this week off payroll data.
Getting pretty close to a good buying opportunity. I have it coming down to about $19.2k, which is a 61.8% fib retrace from the low to the most recent high. I have heard that this also coincides with a CME gap around the same level.
It could go down to the $17.9k level, but I'm doubtful of it doing that and if it did, I don't think it would stay there long. At $19.2k, we can ride this level for awhile to build another base before going higher.
So how this looks to me, is I think we continue to inch down over the next 3+ weeks to create a bit of a bull flag before going higher.
Good place to start buying 1/4 positions over the coming few weeks.
Eventually, we are going to go back up to at least test the $25k and more likely $28k resistance, which I feel we will get through, ending up holding $28-30k as support. This is a 50% gain from current levels.. We could easily be in the $40k's, for a double by early summer.
Not investment advice. GLTA.
It could go down to the $17.9k level, but I'm doubtful of it doing that and if it did, I don't think it would stay there long. At $19.2k, we can ride this level for awhile to build another base before going higher.
So how this looks to me, is I think we continue to inch down over the next 3+ weeks to create a bit of a bull flag before going higher.
Good place to start buying 1/4 positions over the coming few weeks.
Eventually, we are going to go back up to at least test the $25k and more likely $28k resistance, which I feel we will get through, ending up holding $28-30k as support. This is a 50% gain from current levels.. We could easily be in the $40k's, for a double by early summer.
Not investment advice. GLTA.
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It has been a good time to buy for the last 6 months. I base my evaluation off of the fair market value of the overall Crypto marketcap. That value is currently at 1.96 Trillion Dollars. So if it is below that I DCA in, when it is above that amount I DCA out.
There is no one good time to buy unless you are a day trader. If you are a long term investor you DCA at good buy periods. I typically buy ADA, because I believe in Charles Hoskinson. I also have Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other Alts as well
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interesting strategy on the total crypto marketcap.. can I ask what is special about 1.96T? I guess I should probably look at the chart
I have listened to Charles a couple of times.. he comes off a bit too cult-ish for my taste, but hope you do well with ADA.
Personally, I'm getting much more selective on what I will buy. Since most are going to be classified as securities, I don't really want to get caught up in that mess. I am even reluctant to touch ETH these days.
They're all classified as securities except BTC. In the eyes of the SEC, BTC is considered a commodity the same as precious metals.interesting strategy on the total crypto marketcap.. can I ask what is special about 1.96T? I guess I should probably look at the chart
I have listened to Charles a couple of times.. he comes off a bit too cult-ish for my taste, but hope you do well with ADA.
Personally, I'm getting much more selective on what I will buy. Since most are going to be classified as securities, I don't really want to get caught up in that mess. I am even reluctant to touch ETH these days.
interesting strategy on the total crypto marketcap.. can I ask what is special about 1.96T? I guess I should probably look at the chart
I have listened to Charles a couple of times.. he comes off a bit too cult-ish for my taste, but hope you do well with ADA.
Personally, I'm getting much more selective on what I will buy. Since most are going to be classified as securities, I don't really want to get caught up in that mess. I am even reluctant to touch ETH these days
This is an older chart but it is that red line... It has held for quite some time
Wow, good luck to you basing your investment strategy off of that. How much of that chart is based on an easy money timeline?
The good news for you and the other crypto bros here is that banks failing like the one that did today are a quick way for the Fed to turn the spigot back on. From what I have read the bank that failed today was counting on a Fed pivot sooner than later and got caught with their pants down.
I base it off the trend line, and what Crypto's I find to have a future. In the middle of 2024 I can come meet you at a Nebraska football game and share this chart again, because it has spot on for 12 years. You buy when the fear meter is high and you sell when there is greed.
June 2024 we'll check back here and whoever is right can rub it in the other face. Good Luck!
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I just follow Jim Cramer’s awesome advice
Better off doing the opposite of what Cramer says.
agree, but there are some bitcoin derivatives (forks) that would also be considered commodities, and that is not getting into the sticky business of trying to identify which is the real bitcoin... (i think it's bsv) but there is a full on campaign against that one right now, so I won't touch it either.
@big red22 Benjamin Cowen has a great channel.. I often watch his analysis along with Steve at Crypto Crew University.
@Suhrreal read about that bank going under today as well. Will be interesting to see how people digest this one. It's the 64k dollar question.. who do you trust? and the caveat to that is what is your timeline?
Do we trust the banks and the US dollar in the short term? probably.. but in the long term, how does that look?
I'm thinking there is still a lot of room for inflation to reset the US financial system for yet another bubble, maybe a couple more times, but at what point does it become unfeasible?
Everyone has an opinion and that is their right. My opinion is because of the massive money printing out of thin air, and the major factors in inflation happen to be food and energy, there's only one way for inflation to go.
The USA and the entire world is in a world of hurt. The Federal Reserve is trapped and has nowhere to go. It looks like their intent is to take down the entire world economy. Because of the Covid scam, insurance companies are getting crushed. If there's one industry that should make a ton of money it's that industry. They didn't build all their giant buildings by losing money.
Do people really think that the housing crisis from years ago and all those toxic mortgages just vanished into thin air? They were packaged and bought up by the Federal Reserve and at some point, they will begin to unravel when the Federal Reserve knows that the jig is up. They already know it.
This economic model is going belly-side up fast and it's not coming back, it shouldn't, because it was a system in 1913 that was designed to do exactly what it is now doing.
I don't believe in the stock market for a second, since high-frequency trading it has been a total scam. I, actually bought my wife, son, and 2 grandsons some junior gold mining shares that are doing well, but it is only something I bought for them that may benefit my 8-year-old and 4-year-old grandson. It could go to zero tomorrow and not bother me a bit.
I'm a believer in real money that you can hold in your hand. With precious metals, there is no counter-party risk and I'm fully prepared for a 30% haircut for a month or so once the shit hits the fan. After that, no one will sell and no one is going to be able to buy any at any price. Does anyone really think the USA has the 8,000 tons of gold in Fort Knox or New York when Fort Knox hasn't been audited for 66 years? When a country that was holding their gold tells the USA they want to repatriate their gold back and the USA says "give us a couple of years to get it back to you." Don't you find it odd when the USA invades Iraq or Libya the first thing they go after is the gold?
The middle class and lower middle class are getting butchered. Their reserves (if they have any) are being siphoned off systematically through the market ups and downs, the ridiculous interest rates they pay for credit cards, the unsustainable car loans, and on and on. With the price of food and energy, they are getting squeezed into a horrible existence.
Everything financial is nothing more than an inversion of the truth. Hell, the market goes down -500/-600 points and it's no big deal. People with 401K's generally are down 20% YTD, and pension plans are not only underfunded but primarily bankrupt, same with Social Security and Medicare. Now let's forgive billions in student debt. What's next, auto loans? How do you run a country like that?
Carvana is going to liquidate, as are most of those types of operations. People are losing and having repoed and voluntarily giving up their cars because they bought when "times were good", now they can't pay it back when times are bad. Everywhere you look problems.
Just like the rental moratorium of the last few years. That shit is not happening again, where are the people gonna sleep? It's gonna get ugly.
That bozo in the White House is gonna throw another $ 2,400.00 again and that'll do wonders for the economy. Except it doesn't.
I smelled this rat coming in the early 2000s and took steps to avoid all the carnage that awaits. Yes, I own more than a few BTC, I have a few ETH, but the rest I liquidated and purchased portions of BTC. People can say what they want to, but if the CBDC ever comes into being, the only thing that's gonna save your ass is BTC and precious metals. When the shit hits the fan, whatever cash you have on hand is best to be spent in the first couple of weeks before people realize you're paying them with a reserve note that has zero intrinsic value. Folks aren't gonna trade you real stuff for a vanishing note of no value.
If you own your home and have zero debt and REAL assets you are in a position to begin to ride out the storm which is going to last for years and years. The market can do what it wants since I'm only in it for small change. I'm one of those guys who keep minimal cash in the bank, ample cash at home and just sit around and wait for the explosion to further destroy people's lives. Just today, I got calls from some folks telling me their direct deposits into Wells Fargo didn't show. I don't deal with those people from Wells Fargo so it doesn't affect me, but, sometimes that's a "tell".
Central Banks around the world have been buying physical gold left and right, they know what's coming. There's only so much gold to go around and people with strong hands aren't gonna let go of their holdings. When the day arrives and the money people can't get their hands on real money, they will flow into BTC. If they're smart.
Sorry, if this is too long, just do the ole TLDR and I can appreciate that.
This is just my opinion and personal belief, and I encourage everyone to do what they feel is in the best interest of themselves and their family.
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Ben Cowen is as real as it gets... The only thing I personally disagree with him on is Bitcoin and Ethereum are the Blue Chips and always excludes ADA. I think all 3 are going to have their place. Don't forget Charles Hoskinson was a Co Founder of Ethereum, and the reason he started Cardano was because he saw some flaws in the design. There is a reason Ethereum is moving to Proof of Stake, and they are behind Cardano when it comes to that financial technology.
Holy shit man. I've never read this thread because I have no interest in bitcoin. But by end of your post I was seconds away from throwing all my guns in my truck, throwing some food in, grabbing the camping gear, family, and dogs (f my wife's cats), and heading for the mountains.
Luckily my wife yelled that breakfast was done and I took a couple minutes to calm down. I know things aren't perfect right now but wow, we really have some different perspectives on the world.
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I am not sure what you are saying here?
Are you saying that money didn't flow into bitcoin during the covid crash?
or
Are you saying that it won't happen again like the covid crash?
I'm saying we had a chance to see what the behavior would be during one of these so called crisis's. The price of BTC fell just like everything else indicating more sellers than buyers. So it didn't act as a hedge against tail risk like so many are saying it would. For instance, gold prices rise during that time demonstrating a true flight to safety. BTW, I'm not advocating for gold investing, i think it's almost as dumb as investing in bitcoin, but it does actually act in the way a "safe port in a storm" should.
Lol... dude it dipped for 3 weeks and then the new bull run started. Are you blind? If you are worried about a 3 week dip, I am not sure there is any hope to explain what actually happened was proof Bitcoin can do just fine during a crisis. People can continue to say BTC is a giant Ponzi scheme all they want. I am going to continue to invest in it, because I know it is going to be a better and safer way to hold, transfer and spend my money in the future.
What the hell do you think the traditional banking industry is? A big Ponzi scheme. The ones with more money collect interest from loaning the people with little to no money all the time. They continue to get richer and richer while the people the have to get money from (The Banks) are screwing them over.
With Bitcoin I get to control my own money without paying a middle man. That is difference. I don't care if you disagree with me or not, because literally April of 2020 was the start of the Bull market for crypto. You some how think it tanked so believe whatever the F you want
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Everything else came back the same way, there was nothing special about bitcoin. Why are you so angry and aggressive? If you're so confident you shouldn't need to be that mad about it. Reasonable people can disagree about investments, that's why there's so many to choose from.
The schemed-up covid crisis isn't remotely related to what we are going to be facing when a real, sustained economic crisis hits. It wasn't designed to end the economy, it was designed to debilitate and kill millions of people with a bioweapon for a seasonal flu.
When hard assets are no longer available at any price, money will flow into BTC.
Do you want worthless currency like the FRN? Do you want to be a slave to the CBDC? If a person can't get his hands on real money, they will go for the next best thing.
Different strokes for different folks. You do you, and I'll do me and we will see who makes the right decision.
I'm not gonna argue about it, as far as I'm concerned I'm right and I'm not changing course since I've already game-planned how it will all play out.
The biggest holdup on that CBDC is the time it is taking other countries around the world to get their model ready to implement. It would have been introduced much faster in this country if the FRN wasn't the world reserve currency and the USA wasn't waiting on other countries to finalize their plans.
It is not possible for the USA to introduce the CBDC to the citizens and other countries until everyone is ready to jump on board with their version.
The USA can't just change things willy-nilly when nearly the entire world is tied to the FRN.
Good luck.
I'm sure next time will be different, but In a situation you describe, bitcoin will be worthless.
You mark my words in 2025 I am going to be bumping this thread... whether I am right or wrong. You know how many people have said Bitcoin is going to fail in the last two bear markets? Yeah me either, because they all wish they would of got in when it was 3k.
Here I thought I'd share this... You know for all those trusted banks that are going to be begging to suck more off the government teet
I know a guy who was in right away, and it shot up to $400 and leveled off for a long time. He was early in a marriage, starting a family, so he decided to sell at a nice profit.
What do banks have to do with bitcoin? Do you think buying bank stocks is the alternative to bitcoin? There are thousands of companies to invest in, pointing out a couple bank failures that has driven other bank stocks down is kind of odd.
