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Just figured i'd throw it in here because I'm looking and interested... but our schedule's ... probably ... enough to keep our RPI high. not great but probably good enough.
illinois 81st
creighton 24th
michigan 76th
rutgers 56th (yeah, i doubt they last although their schedule is fairly tough so they could stay up there by default)
sparty 8th
some real duds besides those though (northwestern, nicholls state, purdue, wichita state). we probably did as well as we could with the out of conference scheduling -- just needed to win more of those early games. it's baseball, you can't win them all even in an average (at best) conference. i really REALLY wish we'd stop playing northern colorado but i've said that for a decade. also... nicholls state? really? i mean i get the shockers ... but nicholls state? really?
having said that it's probably good enough (it is... probably) honestly if we're going to make the tourney we have to go on a major, major tear against the bad teams and at least hold our own against those 5 teams i listed.. probably need 42 wins including conference tourney. Doable? yes, but i just haven't seen it happen with erstad at this point. i hope i'm not too pessimistic. Some of those teams we have scheduled are truly awful and it doesn't take much to suddenly have RPI issues. there is no upside.
we'd have to go 32-8 the rest of the year to hit 41, plus whatever we win in the conference tourney. that's a heck of a run.
edit : needs to be said that 40 wins won't be enough. 40 wins puts us about 50th in the rpi. won't cut it with our schedule.
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/predictedrpi
obviously it's early enough that this will change (charleston, rutgers and creighton will fall, others will rise) but it's not a terrible ballpark estimate given our estimated strength of schedule.
it estimates us at 40-15, which puts us at roughly 48th with their estimate. i said 50th to give a ballpark because i could see it going 5 or so either direction.
we probably need 43 wins to guaruntee a bid (including tourney). 42 gets us in but barely.
*cough* 40 wins 2014 on selection Sunday.It's so hard to tell what a predicted RPI will be at this time of the year. I think we need to aim to win the Big Ten and let the cards fall the way they may. If we win 40 games I have a hard time believing we wouldn't make a regional. At the same time we haven't won 40 games in a season in a long time. Either way GBR!
4 more losses against a weak schedule is that big of a deal. #realworld it all you want. it's simple math in the end and yes.. the prediction is all over the place HOWEVER the estimate is pretty close. you can pretty much ballpark things like that fairly accurately. i'm fairly close and if you'd have actually looked a little deeper instead of a surface scan you'd have known it.
wright state last year -- 157 SOS, 43 wins, 41 RPI. definite borderline at best if they hadn't won their conference tourney.
#realworld. you can't lose games against weak opponents. PERIOD. end of discussion.
if we hit 46 wins we probably host. that's going 35-5 plus a couple wins in the tourney. i'll believe it when i see it.
you're right with the win total with wright state. i did mention they won their conference tournament -- i was making the point at how borderline things actually are. i double checked that and i'm sorry looked at that wrong. possibly 42 wins is the guaruntee level... no way a team like that qualifies with a 46 RPI in that conference... and all i'm trying to do is give a rough idea of what we need.
however watch what happens if someone with a top 50 rpi loses to a team with rpi under 200. it doesn't matter if it's early or late in the year. automatic 15 spot drop even then. if they're lucky.
you'll change your mind in a BIG hurry about the difference of a couple wins in win totals being semi meaningless. 3 wins difference is a much bigger deal with weaker schedules. 5 wins is ginormous. i'm still sticking with 43 wins needed to guaruntee being in. 42 is borderline.
seriously, if i'm wrong, then we won too many games and are more likely to host. where's the problem? LOL