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Long Beach

Oklahoma won today but that was a big series win on the road for our opponent.
 
Yeah, they are a good team. I wasn't too bummed about that series especially after the first couple weekends. This team started out very rocky but seems to be hitting their stride. Still hard to tell until they play another team with equal talent.
 
Charleston is #1 in the RPI at this point... won't last but still impressive.

.... if you're curious, we're around #37 on real time rpi as of this posting.
 
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Just figured i'd throw it in here because I'm looking and interested... but our schedule's ... probably ... enough to keep our RPI high. not great but probably good enough.

illinois 81st
creighton 24th
michigan 76th
rutgers 56th (yeah, i doubt they last although their schedule is fairly tough so they could stay up there by default)
sparty 8th

some real duds besides those though (northwestern, nicholls state, purdue, wichita state). we probably did as well as we could with the out of conference scheduling -- just needed to win more of those early games. it's baseball, you can't win them all even in an average (at best) conference. i really REALLY wish we'd stop playing northern colorado but i've said that for a decade. also... nicholls state? really? i mean i get the shockers ... but nicholls state? really?

having said that it's probably good enough (it is... probably) honestly if we're going to make the tourney we have to go on a major, major tear against the bad teams and at least hold our own against those 5 teams i listed.. probably need 42 wins including conference tourney. Doable? yes, but i just haven't seen it happen with erstad at this point. i hope i'm not too pessimistic. Some of those teams we have scheduled are truly awful and it doesn't take much to suddenly have RPI issues. there is no upside.
 
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Just figured i'd throw it in here because I'm looking and interested... but our schedule's ... probably ... enough to keep our RPI high. not great but probably good enough.

illinois 81st
creighton 24th
michigan 76th
rutgers 56th (yeah, i doubt they last although their schedule is fairly tough so they could stay up there by default)
sparty 8th

some real duds besides those though (northwestern, nicholls state, purdue, wichita state). we probably did as well as we could with the out of conference scheduling -- just needed to win more of those early games. it's baseball, you can't win them all even in an average (at best) conference. i really REALLY wish we'd stop playing northern colorado but i've said that for a decade. also... nicholls state? really? i mean i get the shockers ... but nicholls state? really?

having said that it's probably good enough (it is... probably) honestly if we're going to make the tourney we have to go on a major, major tear against the bad teams and at least hold our own against those 5 teams i listed.. probably need 42 wins including conference tourney. Doable? yes, but i just haven't seen it happen with erstad at this point. i hope i'm not too pessimistic. Some of those teams we have scheduled are truly awful and it doesn't take much to suddenly have RPI issues. there is no upside.

I'm looking at the schedule too and thinking it's a real softie. But I'm not worried about how it will affect our RPI. We have the Illinois model from last year to guide us.

Illinois had 46 wins on Selection Sunday against a ~150 SOS and with all that they earned an RPI 8 or so. They were way up there.

In fact, Illinois' SOS was a pathetic 200+ for most of the year and didn't improve until late when they ran into some surprisingly good Big Ten teams. They finished the year after tourney play at RPI 12 and SOS a stinking 112.

So, the Illinois model says - win those games on the lousy schedule and all's well.

40+ wins this year. Book it.
 
that's all well and good if you win the games. it's been since what... 2005 since we won those games against average or bad teams consistently?

we'd have to go 32-8 the rest of the year to hit 41, plus whatever we win in the conference tourney. that's a heck of a run.

i'll believe it when i see it. i REALLY don't want to be a downer but yeah... obviously if you win all your games your RPI won't suck. that's not rocket science.

edit : needs to be said that 40 wins won't be enough. 40 wins puts us about 50th in the rpi. won't cut it with our schedule.
 
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Haven't found the RPI's yet...
I do look at a few Win/Loss numbers.
Sure Michigan St's one loss,
is different than #1 Florida's one loss.
But...

*Teams played*
College of Charleston 11-4
San Diego 9-8
Arizona 11-4
Tulane 11-5
Long Beach St. 10-5
Northern Colorado 4-13
Loyola Marymount 6-10

*Teams yet to play*
Wichita St 4-11
Indiana St 10-5
Purdue 3-10
Creighton 9-4
Illinois 6-7
K-State 10-5
UNO 9-9
Northwestern 5-11
Michigan 11-3
Nicholls St 7-9
Kansas 6-7
Rutgers 6-8
Michigan St 13-1
Penn St 5-9
Indiana 5-8

Might look easy after what the Huskers have shown in the last week,
But this team has to prove it can now stay focused.
Earn it, everyday!
 
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/rpi

there's the current RPI's. and yes, it gets MUCH easier from here.

i agree -- earn it everyday. don't get me wrong, it's doable. we've got a schedule where we could go 15-2 the next 17 games or so and that'll get people like me in a much, much better mindset.

we simply can't go out there and lay an egg against a team with a 200+ rpi. i mean ZERO losses like that. and there's a llot of those games. and we've got a not-so-nice history of laying those eggs (northwestern).

earn it. feel free to shut me up. trust me, i'm good with that.
 
we'd have to go 32-8 the rest of the year to hit 41, plus whatever we win in the conference tourney. that's a heck of a run.

edit : needs to be said that 40 wins won't be enough. 40 wins puts us about 50th in the rpi. won't cut it with our schedule.

Yep, 50 RPI is a loser we'll need better. But that's what a soft schedule is for. It's for winning a lot of games and that will be our task. It's fair to wait and see but I'm seeing things now that are different from recent years and I'm stepping out with an early call. 40+ wins.

BTW, how did you calculate that 50 RPI, may I ask?
 
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/predictedrpi

obviously it's early enough that this will change (charleston, rutgers and creighton will fall, others will rise) but it's not a terrible ballpark estimate given our estimated strength of schedule.

it estimates us at 40-15, which puts us at roughly 48th with their estimate. i said 50th to give a ballpark because i could see it going 5 or so either direction.

we probably need 43 wins to guaruntee a bid (including tourney). 42 gets us in but barely.
 
Thanks

Nope. I'm listening and learning and just trying to be part of the conversation.
I understand way some get a little non-positive on here.
Who doesn't want the best for the team they support?
I'm here to support the team Win or Lose.
But it's always more fun when they win.
 
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/predictedrpi

obviously it's early enough that this will change (charleston, rutgers and creighton will fall, others will rise) but it's not a terrible ballpark estimate given our estimated strength of schedule.

it estimates us at 40-15, which puts us at roughly 48th with their estimate. i said 50th to give a ballpark because i could see it going 5 or so either direction.

we probably need 43 wins to guaruntee a bid (including tourney). 42 gets us in but barely.

Got it, thanks. Yeah I look at that page all the time but have to say that prediction is all over the place as time goes by.

Again, Illinois had RPI 13 w/SOS 143 on selection Sunday (not 8 & 150 as I said earlier). 46 wins. That's a long way from RPI 50. #realworld
 
It's so hard to tell what a predicted RPI will be at this time of the year. I think we need to aim to win the Big Ten and let the cards fall the way they may. If we win 40 games I have a hard time believing we wouldn't make a regional. At the same time we haven't won 40 games in a season in a long time. Either way GBR!
 
4 more losses against a weak schedule is that big of a deal. #realworld it all you want. it's simple math in the end and yes.. the prediction is all over the place HOWEVER the estimate is pretty close. you can pretty much ballpark things like that fairly accurately. i'm fairly close and if you'd have actually looked a little deeper instead of a surface scan you'd have known it.

wright state last year -- 157 SOS, 43 wins, 41 RPI. definite borderline at best if they hadn't won their conference tourney.

#realworld. you can't lose games against weak opponents. PERIOD. end of discussion.

if we hit 46 wins we probably host. that's going 35-5 plus a couple wins in the tourney. i'll believe it when i see it.
 
It's so hard to tell what a predicted RPI will be at this time of the year. I think we need to aim to win the Big Ten and let the cards fall the way they may. If we win 40 games I have a hard time believing we wouldn't make a regional. At the same time we haven't won 40 games in a season in a long time. Either way GBR!
*cough* 40 wins 2014 on selection Sunday.

#hadtodoit
 
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different Strength of Schedule and therefore RPI (that year it was 66 SOS and thus our RPI was pretty good). you have to compare apples to apples.

our estimated SOS this year is around 160. that means we need 43 or so wins, possibly more if it turns out our schedule is worse than that (less if it turns out it's better). possibly more regardless.

It's a ballpark estimate but fairly close. blowing off the math doesn't help anybody. And our schedule is obviously markedly easier than that year (nichols freakin state? really?)

of course we could just win the conference tourney and make all the math moot...
 
4 more losses against a weak schedule is that big of a deal. #realworld it all you want. it's simple math in the end and yes.. the prediction is all over the place HOWEVER the estimate is pretty close. you can pretty much ballpark things like that fairly accurately. i'm fairly close and if you'd have actually looked a little deeper instead of a surface scan you'd have known it.

wright state last year -- 157 SOS, 43 wins, 41 RPI. definite borderline at best if they hadn't won their conference tourney.

#realworld. you can't lose games against weak opponents. PERIOD. end of discussion.

if we hit 46 wins we probably host. that's going 35-5 plus a couple wins in the tourney. i'll believe it when i see it.

Actually, on selection Sunday they were RPI 46 and SOS 180 with 41 wins. Conference champ so they entered the NCAAs as an AQ. Drew a three seed.

As to Illinois, I do think the difference between RPI 13 and RPI 50 is too large for a handful of wins to make up. Illinois wouldn't have dropped all the way to 50 on five more losses. Doesn't seem so to me.
 
you're right with the win total with wright state. i did mention they won their conference tournament -- i was making the point at how borderline things actually are. i double checked that and i'm sorry looked at that wrong. possibly 42 wins is the guaruntee level... no way a team like that qualifies with a 46 RPI in that conference... and all i'm trying to do is give a rough idea of what we need.

however watch what happens if someone with a top 50 rpi loses to a team with rpi under 200. it doesn't matter if it's early or late in the year. automatic 15 spot drop even then. if they're lucky.

you'll change your mind in a BIG hurry about the difference of a couple wins in win totals being semi meaningless. 3 wins difference is a much bigger deal with weaker schedules. 5 wins is ginormous. i'm still sticking with 43 wins needed to guaruntee being in. 42 is borderline.

seriously, if i'm wrong, then we won too many games and are more likely to host. where's the problem? LOL
 
you're right with the win total with wright state. i did mention they won their conference tournament -- i was making the point at how borderline things actually are. i double checked that and i'm sorry looked at that wrong. possibly 42 wins is the guaruntee level... no way a team like that qualifies with a 46 RPI in that conference... and all i'm trying to do is give a rough idea of what we need.

however watch what happens if someone with a top 50 rpi loses to a team with rpi under 200. it doesn't matter if it's early or late in the year. automatic 15 spot drop even then. if they're lucky.

you'll change your mind in a BIG hurry about the difference of a couple wins in win totals being semi meaningless. 3 wins difference is a much bigger deal with weaker schedules. 5 wins is ginormous. i'm still sticking with 43 wins needed to guaruntee being in. 42 is borderline.

seriously, if i'm wrong, then we won too many games and are more likely to host. where's the problem? LOL

I certainly agree we can't afford losses to some of those very bad teams on our schedule. That would cook us bad.

Back to Illinois, b/c their run last year was very instructive to me.

I actually called DE's radio program and compared Illinois's path of weak opponents to our much more difficult path. Erstad definitely defended his choice as he wanted his team to play tough opponents for the experience if nothing else. But he also acknowledged that Illinois's choice was legit and that he wouldn't be scheduling so tough again for 2016.

Here's the thing, Illinois did lose to Southern Illinois (RPI 243) and Ball St (145).

And, if we're talking regular season, Illinois finished with 44 wins. Now I don't have the numbers at hand but will say they had a very high RPI with a very poor SOS on those 44 wins. I remember they had RPI 8 very late in the season and a 150+ SOS. They went 2-2 in the B1G tourney which bumped their RPI down.
 
There's a difference between the level of being "in" and being a top seed. you're saying 3-4 more wins is the difference between hosting/national seed territory and 3-seed/qualifying semi-solidly.

i'm agreeing with you. i'm just pointing out the line is VERY thin with a weaker schedule. And we have absolutely zero recent history of being able to lock down those weak teams. if we had, i'd be lauding this schedule change.

if we do that (go say... 23-2 for the rest of the year against teams with RPI's over 100), we will have a chance to make some serious noise (ONLY a chance... we have to win more games). we haven't come close to that in recent history, and we need to do so.

that would leave us 15 games against better teams plus the tournament. keeping in mind that 9-6 in those games would get us to my 41 regular season win level and that a lot of those harder 15 games are on the road (11 of those 15 games to be precise).... and you'll see what i mean when i say we have VERY little room to maneuver here and need to bloody well lock down those games against lesser teams.

by the way... last year? 24-7 against teams over 100 rpi. that isn't good enough. we need to BURY those teams.
 
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