Is Everyone OK with a top 25 recruiting class?

[Dean Pope]

We can all agree that recruiting is going well thus far. But I don't see a way that NU can finish much higher than #20 in the recruiting rankings. It's a numbers game. NU sits at #6 in the 24/7 rankings right now, but we all know it won't stay that way.

If we sign 15, I look at this class as top 30 class. Clemson and Stanford finished in the top 20 with 14 recruits in 2017, but both had two and three five stars respectively in that total. If we sign, say 18, I think we'd have a shot being inside the top 20, but that's unlikely. UCLA finished #20 last year, but had two five stars in the mix.

Any thoughts?

 

[GretnaShawn]

Yes. It is a small class so the final team rating will be lower. Unless we somehow get to 20 signees, it isn't a fair metric. I am much more interested in final team rankings by average star/ranking and where we land on that scale.

 

[Husker.Wed.]

Just like any other year, I base my judgment on average star rating, not the calculation they use that includes number signed. So yes, as we sit right now, I am more than OK with the class.

Besides, the fact we got much of this class on board early (rather than scrambling for pot luck in January) and my perception this staff pays more attention to the character of the recruits, I feel the retention rate will be higher. A four star recruit does us no good if he bails after a year.

 

[HuskerNorm]

I still have no idea why people believe we will only be signing 15. That's the open number of scholarships now. There are three guys from last class struggling to qualify academically. Likely one won't. That puts the number at at least 16. Do people really believe we won't have attrition of at least 2 additional guys?

 

[c3ntral08]

Yeah I don't see us getting close to top 20 but definitely in that 23-30 range, 23 being if we some how sign 18. But yeah, it's a numbers game.

 

[NikkiSixx]

They have done an excellent job at recruiting, especially this year. I like how they have gotten the commits earlier & quality has improved. It's a big wheel to get turning in your direction, but hat's off to the staff for continuing to improve and stay with it. Don't let off the gas. I would like to see all position groups benefit. Class Ranking this year isn't going to mean a whole lot with the smaller class, so I would not look at that. Average star ranking (if you subtract the kicker) gives an idea about the quality, which is very good.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

When a program redshirts a majority of each recruiting class, the chances having a top 15 class decreases. You simply do not have the numbers when you are signing 15-20 to match programs signing 23-28.

Filling needs should always be the key. With the way the rankings are calculated, a school could sign 10 4 star LB and 10 4 star RB and have a top 15 class. Never mind the fact that the school has only 4 OL on scholarship and didn't sign any, they have a top 15 class so all is good. From that standpoint, I think these rankings are pointless. With that said, I believe most coaches recruit to the needs of their program. Take Riley and the need for a kicker, he took a top kicker, and it will effect the overall ranking of the class. He could have committed a position player and got a few more points in the recruiting rankings, but does that really make the class better?

As far as the 15 number this year, yes there may be some attrition through one form or another, but there will also be players awarded scholarships that are walk ons or there could be an incoming transfer. I have said from day 1 that the number will be 15 until it isn't. When/ if it is announced that one of the 2017 recruits didn't qualify, then you add to the 15. When a scholarship junior or younger says he is leaving the program, then you can add to the 15. Until then, you simply can't. Again I am not saying there will not be attrition, I am saying that I don't know where it will come from. This staff is simply not going to commit players when they don't know, FOR SURE, that there will be a scholarship for him. In past years, there have been indications or signs that players have a foot out the door. This year feels a little different to me when it comes to that.

In the end, I think the class ends up about 22-25, with a top 15 average star.

 

[redfanusa]

I also base my perception on average stars.

With that said, a signing class of 15 could be ridiculously stupid considering Nebraska's recent performance on the field. What 15 signees says to me is that the members of the previous 3-4 classes are all performing like starters on a conference championship-level team. We have all the talent we need to bring home trophies...no more needed today!

Obviously that is not happening. There is clearly dead weight on the roster. With 85 scholarships - enough to fill four full lineups of players - there is always going to be dead weight. Those guys going into their 3rd or heaven forbid 4th years without contributing in a significant way need to be invited to take their talents elsewhere. Sorry if that sounds mean, but they're not getting a $40,000/year scholarship to watch the games from the sidelines.

When you have momentum, you don't shoot yourself in the foot. You take it and run with it. Like with a class of 25 four-star guys who just might actually win the conference for the first time in 20 years.

 

[jflores]

I still have no idea why people believe we will only be signing 15. That's the open number of scholarships now. There are three guys from last class struggling to qualify academically. Likely one won't. That puts the number at at least 16. Do people really believe we won't have attrition of at least 2 additional guys?

Its more a question of timing than absolutes. I think its possible we get more recruits "later" but we won't be hitting anywhere near 20 "now".

Folks have generally asserted we should recruit 18-20 folks "now" because its inevitable we'll have space later. I think Riley and those posters disagree on how inevitable it is until it happens.

 

[jflores]

I also base my perception on average stars.

With that said, a signing class of 15 could be ridiculously stupid considering Nebraska's recent performance on the field. What 15 signees says to me is that the members of the previous 3-4 classes are all performing like starters on a conference championship-level team. We have all the talent we need to bring home trophies...no more needed today!

Obviously that is not happening. There is clearly dead weight on the roster. With 85 scholarships - enough to fill four full lineups of players - there is always going to be dead weight. Those guys going into their 3rd or heaven forbid 4th years without contributing in a significant way need to be invited to take their talents elsewhere. Sorry if that sounds mean, but they're not getting a $40,000/year scholarship to watch the games from the sidelines.

When you have momentum, you don't shoot yourself in the foot. You take it and run with it. Like with a class of 25 four-star guys who just might actually win the conference for the first time in 20 years.

We're in the wrong conference then. B1G does not allow this.

 

[NikkiSixx]

We're in the wrong conference then.

I agree 100%.

 

[HuskerNorm]

Its more a question of timing than absolutes. I think its possible we get more recruits "later" but we won't be hitting anywhere near 20 "now".

Folks have generally asserted we should recruit 18-20 folks "now" because its inevitable we'll have space later. I think Riley and those posters disagree on how inevitable it is until it happens.

This isn't really the point. This is a discussion of what the class ranking will be on NSD... Therefore the question is how many recruits do we ultimately sign, not how many will we have committed by June 1. The number won't be 15 next February and I don't understand the perception that it will. If it's not at least 18 I will be shocked. That means we only lose 3 to attrition between now and then. Tell me a single year in the history of the program that we haven't lost at least a few guys on scholarship between June and February... Obviously, we probably won't get commitments from more than 15 until we have the available scholarships but there is this perception that that means we will stop recruiting at that point which is wrong.

 

[timnsun]

This isn't really the point. This is a discussion of what the class ranking will be on NSD... Therefore the question is how many recruits do we ultimately sign, not how many will we have committed by June 1. The number won't be 15 next February and I don't understand the perception that it will. If it's not at least 18 I will be shocked. That means we only lose 3 to attrition between now and then. Tell me a single year in the history of the program that we haven't lost at least a few guys on scholarship between June and February... Obviously, we probably won't get commitments from more than 15 until we have the available scholarships but there is this perception that that means we will stop recruiting at that point which is wrong.

I guess I never got the perception that we will stop recruiting once we hit 15... These coaches have had decommits late in the process from the first year they were here... They aren't going to shut it down once they hit 15... And I don't think anyone is saying they will.

What people are saying is that we won't add more than 15 until spots open up. The recruiting will continue after we hit the magic number, because either we will have attrition or decommits. They won't stop recruiting for 2018 until the day after signing day in February. And I haven't seen anyone say differently on the coaching staff, or on this board.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Prepare to be shocked. I don't see it getting to 18.

Cole Conrad will be on scholarship before the fall starts. He will be a junior. That will eat up one of the attritioned scholarships. I would expect to see Reimers get one too.

Too many moving parts to simply say 3 guys will leave, therefore we will have 18 open.

 

[jflores]

This isn't really the point. This is a discussion of what the class ranking will be on NSD... Therefore the question is how many recruits do we ultimately sign, not how many will we have committed by June 1. The number won't be 15 next February and I don't understand the perception that it will. If it's not at least 18 I will be shocked. That means we only lose 3 to attrition between now and then. Tell me a single year in the history of the program that we haven't lost at least a few guys on scholarship between June and February... Obviously, we probably won't get commitments from more than 15 until we have the available scholarships but there is this perception that that means we will stop recruiting at that point which is wrong.

The folks who want 20 right now are the only ones wetting themselves that Riley will turn off recruiting when he hits fifteen in a couple weeks.

 

[timnsun]

The folks who want 20 right now are the only ones wetting themselves that Riley will turn off recruiting when he hits fifteen in a couple weeks.

Even then, he won't turn it off... Dez Fitz and the other WR in 2017 (can't remember his name, somehow) will ensure they are still recruiting. If anything opens up that isn't taken by a walk on, they will know what to do with the open scholarship.

 

[artguy68]

Class rankings are about as meaningful as the WAR stat. It might be yet another thing to distract fans during slow periods, but it is utterly meaningless.

 

[huskerssalts]

So the Big 10 doesnt allow programs to cut inactive players?? I get there trying to fair to players in general but there on football scholly for a reason and thats not to take up roster space. If there a non contributor then why not let a team cut them?? To me that makes no sense.

 

[TheBeav815]

I still have no idea why people believe we will only be signing 15. That's the open number of scholarships now. There are three guys from last class struggling to qualify academically. Likely one won't. That puts the number at at least 16. Do people really believe we won't have attrition of at least 2 additional guys?

I certainly think there will be another spot or two that opens up. No inside info on that, just a hunch based on how it seems like one or two kids per year end up quitting football with injuries, running into trouble, getting homesick, etc.

The guys who don't qualify surprise me every time. I should know by now that's not a rare occurrence, and yet I never plan on it.

I am very ok with a lower ranking if it's just because the class wasn't very big. If it's a class of mostly 4* guys, hell yes I will take that.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

So the Big 10 doesnt allow programs to cut inactive players?? I get there trying to fair to players in general but there on football scholly for a reason and thats not to take up roster space. If there a non contributor then why not let a team cut them?? To me that makes no sense.

It's not the Big Ten it's the 4 year scholarship.

This is a direct effect of the Northwestern QB effort to unionize. With 4 year scholarships and these protections in place, the schools look more like schools and less like employers.

The schools don't want to share the profits with the players, so this is what you get.

When the scholarship is contingent upon athletic performance at an academic institution, it looks like a job.

Different than when a kid gets an academic scholarship at an academic institution.

Secondly, with an academic award, it is easier to set minimum standards to maintain the academic award, typically GPA. It is an objective standard and not subjective, as would be the case of athletic performance.

 

[TruHusker]

Class rankings are about as meaningful as the WAR stat. It might be yet another thing to distract fans during slow periods, but it is utterly meaningless.

Are you saying there is no correlation to highly rated classes and highly rated teams? There have been numerous articles and links shared that demonstrate a clear relationship. Guess if I was forced too, I would take my chances with classes consistently in the top five.

 

[Toms Wife]

Ehhhhhh...we probably put too much emphasis on team ranking. We hit #20 last year but the reality is that if each of the three teams behind us in the rival rankings even took one more two or three star player we would have dropped to #23. I'm sure next year we will say the opposite. "If we just took a full complement we would surely be much higher."

 

[nebcountry]

I will just ratio the number to 20 and see where that puts us.

 

[OneBadHuskerFan]

I couldn't care less what our recruiting ranking is. Where we are as a team at the end of the season actually PLAYING the game is what matters.

 

[timnsun]

I couldn't care less what our recruiting ranking is. Where we are as a team at the end of the season actually PLAYING the game is what matters.

Wow, never thought of that...

 

[redfanusa]

We're in the wrong conference then. B1G does not allow this.

The Big Ten clearly does allow it. Michigan signed a class of 30 just three months ago. They signed a class of 29 for 2016. That's 59 players in two years, or about what we sign in three.

And for those concerned about four-year scholarships, they do not factor into it. While the school may be obligated to cover an athlete's education, they are NOT obligated to let the person practice or play. So you tell a guy he's welcome to no longer be a student-athlete at your school, but if they want to play football they need to consider another university. Most will get the clue and transfer on their own. Problem solved.

 

[Cornicator]

So the Big 10 doesnt allow programs to cut inactive players?? I get there trying to fair to players in general but there on football scholly for a reason and thats not to take up roster space. If there a non contributor then why not let a team cut them?? To me that makes no sense.

You can't outright "cut" a kid, but it's not difficult to force him out. You can place a kid on Medical Scholarship. You can "strongly advise" him to transfer and even help him find another program. You can also be a bit cold hearted and make things so tough on him that he wants to leave.

Now fwiw, I still believe Nebraska gets to 20 open Scholarships by next signing day.

 

[mel mains]

You can't outright "cut" a kid, but it's not difficult to force him out. You can place a kid on Medical Scholarship. You can "strongly advise" him to transfer and even help him find another program. You can also be a bit cold hearted and make things so tough on him that he wants to leave.

Now fwiw, I still believe Nebraska gets to 20 open Scholarships by next signing day.

Case in point: what happened this week with the Alabama head baseball coach; and what has never happened with the Alabama head football coach.

 

[dinglefritz]

Top 25 in class rank. Top 15-20 in average star ranking works for me. Top 15 year end ranking would be a good start.

 

[tone1017]

The exact ranking number doesn't really matter but the general area we fall into year to year does. I feel like we talk about this once a month but look at every champion the last 15 years and show me the one who didn't consistently get elite classes. The only 2 that you could argue weren't elite had Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson. So all we need is at worst a heisman trophy runner up that fell all the way to 12th overall in the draft. With this small class the actual number isn't very important, as everyone has said it's nearly impossible to get a top 20 class taking 15-17 kids, but the quality we have right now is where it needs to be. Recruiting is an inexact science and there are countless examples of misses both good and bad, but it's pretty much proven if you want to compete for a title you have to recruit to a certain level and we are heading in that direction.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

The Big Ten clearly does allow it. Michigan signed a class of 30 just three months ago. They signed a class of 29 for 2016. That's 59 players in two years, or about what we sign in three.

And for those concerned about four-year scholarships, they do not factor into it. While the school may be obligated to cover an athlete's education, they are NOT obligated to let the person practice or play. So you tell a guy he's welcome to no longer be a student-athlete at your school, but if they want to play football they need to consider another university. Most will get the clue and transfer on their own. Problem solved.

So a guy buried on a depth chart, not playing but still practicing is going to all of a sudden leave because the coach says you no longer get to practice? So Zach Hannon and Dwayne Johnson saw the writing on the wall after getting their bachelors and decided well if I want to play, I better go to a school closer to my home and let some other school pay for a year of my masters.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Case in point: what happened this week with the Alabama head baseball coach; and what has never happened with the Alabama head football coach.

So if Saban tells 25 of his 85 scholarship player they were going to be cut nothing would be said?

 

[mel mains]

So if Saban tells 25 of his 85 scholarship player they were going to be cut nothing would be said?

Of course not. But I didn't say that. I said there's a way to nudge players along and then there's the way the baseball coach came right out and told 10 players their scholarship wouldn't be renewed. And he was thusly fired.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Of course not. But I didn't say that. I said there's a way to nudge players along and then there's the way the baseball coach came right out and told 10 players their scholarship wouldn't be renewed. And he was thusly fired.

I guess I misunderstood. I took it as though you were saying that the baseball coach was fired for doing the same thing Saban does. Like Saban gets away with it and the baseball coach didn't.

 

[jflores]

Of course not. But I didn't say that. I said there's a way to nudge players along and then there's the way the baseball coach came right out and told 10 players their scholarship wouldn't be renewed. And he was thusly fired.

This is more of what I'm looking at.

To get to the 25 number range, we'd have to find a way to have 10 folks "have medical problems" or transfer or some other metric unrelated to performance on the field. In onesies and twosies, sure. But 10?

I think that's what Riley means when he said "I don't see anyway to do this ethically". So I can see the number rising about 15 certainly, but there's no way NU "processes" double digits number of underclassmen.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

This fan base doesn't have the mentality to hardcore process players like other schools do.

Secondly we don't have a coach with the mentality to process players in that fashion.

 

[jflores]

This fan base doesn't have the mentality to hardcore process players like other schools do.

Secondly we don't have a coach with the mentality to process players in that fashion.

With a quick look at the spring game rosters...

It would appear to me that most of the folks I would process are on the way out already or would look to this fall as a "make or break" moment for them anyway. There are certainly a few younger cats to look at, but we have a pretty youthful team here.

http://www.cornnation.com/2017/4/15/15313206/nebraska-huskers-football-spring-game-rosters

 

[kaz36]

I can't wait for posters to start losing their minds when NU starts falling in the recruiting rankings because they filled their class early and other teams pass them as they add recruits. Then we get to hear from the trolls about our Oregon State recruiting class.

 

[timnsun]

I can't wait for posters to start losing their minds when NU starts falling in the recruiting rankings because they filled their class early and other teams pass them as they add recruits. Then we get to hear from the trolls about our Oregon State recruiting class.

41 means 40 other schools with better classes than us. That's unacceptable!

 

[jlb321]

This fan base doesn't have the mentality to hardcore process players like other schools do.

Secondly we don't have a coach with the mentality to process players in that fashion.

+1 .. we need several of the noncontributors to be caught with weed rather our top returning WR