How will the Big Ten 2024 schedule play out?
Let's take a shot at predicting each team’s Big Ten 2024 opponents and put together an equitable schedule.
theathletic.com
How will Big Ten's 2024 football schedule play out? Here's an attempt to plan it
by Scott Dochterman, The Athletic
With painstaking detail and discussions lasting for more than a year, Big Ten and campus officials crafted a league football schedule beginning in 2024 that eliminated divisions, protected signature rivalries and ensured every athlete would play at least one game at every venue in a four-year period.
It was called "flex protect-plus" and its supporters were excited to tout it during the weeks after it was unveiled June 8.
"What they've put together shows a tremendous amount of creativity and recognizes the unique situations that each of our schools faces with rivalries,” Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman said at Big Ten media days July 26. “(It) finds that balance point between not fabricating or creating new rivalries where none exist, but also making sure that we don’t eliminate great games and long-standing traditions.”
All of that work, discussion and compromise became merely a team-building exercise and nothing more. On Friday, the Big Ten added Washington and Oregon for the 2024 season, which rendered everything but the principles of flex protect-plus moot. The league now must adjust its 2024 scheduling and structure.
With the Washington and Oregon announcement barely hours old, it's too early for the Big Ten brass to rearrange the 2024 opponents, let alone brandish a schedule. But it's not too early for The Athletic to reconstruct each team's 2024 opponents and put together an equitable schedule.
Using the most narrow scheduling tweaks coupled with the conference's scheduling principles, here's a look at how the Big Ten might (should) rework the 2024 schedule when Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA join the conference.
Opponent Changes
The first step in building a 2024 schedule comes with opponent changes. Surprisingly, this isn't a real difficult process. Whether Oregon and Washington become annual protected foes with USC and UCLA remains undetermined, but it makes sense to have them all play one another in 2024.
Based on the 2023 Pac-12 schedule and the Big Ten's 2024 plan, Oregon should join UCLA with five home league games while Washington and USC should only have four. Then one home and one road opponent for USC and UCLA should shift to Washington and Oregon. In this scenario, USC would lose Iowa (home) and Maryland (road) to Washington, while UCLA would move a home date with Ohio State and a road trip to Indiana to Oregon.
That would leave Washington and Oregon with five of nine opponents. Then all that's needed is to alter four other games. For instance, Maryland is scheduled to play at Illinois, and Minnesota is set to play Nebraska. Simply add those games to Oregon's schedule with the Ducks playing at Illinois and Nebraska and hosting Maryland and Minnesota. For Washington, shift Purdue at Michigan State and Penn State at Wisconsin to the Huskies' schedule in a similar fashion.
Those tweaks would prevent wholesale changes for 2024, keep the predetermined permanent rivalries intact and have little disruption to the current 14 teams' schedules. As for the four newcomers, this is how their schedules would shake out:
Washington
Home: USC, Iowa, Purdue, Penn State
Away: UCLA, Oregon, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Oregon
Home: Washington, UCLA, Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota
Away: USC, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
UCLA
Home: USC, Washington, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern
Away: Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers
USC
Home: Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin
Away: UCLA, Washington, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
Other Changes:
Iowa at Washington (was USC); Washington (was USC) at Maryland; Ohio State at Oregon (was UCLA); Indiana at Oregon (was UCLA); Oregon at Illinois; Maryland at Oregon (was Maryland at Illinois); Purdue at Washington, Washington at Michigan State (was Purdue at Michigan State); Minnesota at Oregon; Oregon at Nebraska (was Minnesota at Nebraska); Penn State at Washington; Washington at Wisconsin (was Penn State at Wisconsin)
Should the former Pac-12 schools become permanent annual rivals, a perfect rotation would be two West Coast road trips in years when that school has five. That would limit each school's cross-country trips to three in a given year.
The Schedule
No matter how the schedule shakes out, there will be dynamite matchups, travel difficulties and weekly oddities. There's no way to avoid it with 18 teams. If there's a blessing in 2024 (and 2025), it's that there are 14 weeks in the season. And with two newcomers already with scheduled matchups at Hawaii, there are Week Zero games, too.
Oregon is slated to play at Hawaii on Aug. 24 and UCLA is in Honolulu a week later. That allows UCLA to play a Week Zero game, and it makes sense to get a long trip out of the way before school starts. In this scenario, we'll have the Bruins opening at Iowa on Aug. 24.
But the Big Ten has an interest in attaching Week Zero to the regular season. As a league with 18 institutions, spreading out the inventory makes sense. Perhaps the Big Ten could obtain a waiver -- or push for immediate rules changes -- so schools traveling more than two time zones away can play on Week Zero. In my schedule, we'd add two more Week Zero games: USC at Penn State and Washington at Maryland.
In a 14-game schedule, there are two automatic off weeks, and with a Week Zero, that makes three byes and some quirks. Iowa, Nebraska and Rutgers have three-game road streaks broken up by a bye in a four-week stretch. Michigan State has a three-game home sequence and a bye in four weeks. But no team has directly more than two straight home or away Big Ten games.
Because of travel concerns, I put no West Coast team on the road for consecutive trips except for USC, which goes to Washington and UCLA. Minnesota is the only team to take two West Coast trips, but one was followed by a home game and the other week with a bye.
Some other 2024 scheduling notes:
- Three Big Ten members still require a nonconference game for the 2024 season: Washington, Northwestern and Rutgers
- With 15 weeks, it would allow NBC and CBS each to have four top-week selections and FOX with seven. On Week Zero, NBC would get that claim.
- It already is determined that the Big Ten will air two games on Black Friday and a Sunday night game on Labor Day weekend.
Predicting August/September 2024
Aug. 24/25
UCLA at Iowa
USC at Penn State
Oregon at Hawaii
Washington at Maryland
Aug. 29-31/Sept. 1
North Carolina at Minnesota
Western Michigan at Wisconsin
Idaho at Oregon
Purdue at Illinois
Fresno State at Michigan
Connecticut at Maryland
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State
Texas-El Paso at Nebraska
Miami (OH) at Northwestern
Florida International at Indiana
Illinois State at Iowa
UCLA at Hawaii
Weber State at Washington
Penn State at West Virginia
USC vs. LSU (at Las Vegas)
Southern Mississippi at Ohio State
The Future
For 2025 and beyond, the Big Ten has major decisions to make. The mathematical symmetry in place for a 16-game model has changed. The plan of 11 protected rivalries and 13 double-plays in a two-year period is tossed aside.
According to Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny, the league "will look to incorporate most, if not all, of the principles from flex protect-plus at 18 now instead of 16. Some areas may need to adjust a bit to ensure a rotation can be built, but the foundation of wanting to play each other more, not less, and preserving rivalries will still guide the conversation."
Predicting September 2024
Sept. 6/7
Texas Tech at Oregon
Texas at Michigan
Iowa State at Iowa
Colorado at Nebraska
Kansas at Illinois
Michigan State at Maryland
Duke at Northwestern
Western Michigan at Ohio State
Bowling Green at Penn State
Rhode Island at Minnesota
Indiana State at Purdue
South Dakota at Wisconsin
Akron at Rutgers
Eastern Michigan at Washington
Utah State at USC
Indiana at Louisville
Sept. 13/14
Boise State at Oregon
Alabama at Wisconsin
Northwestern at Ohio State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Michigan at Rutgers
Louisiana-Lafayette at Michigan State
Troy at Iowa
Nevada at Minnesota
Central Michigan at Illinois
Northern Iowa at Nebraska
Fresno State at UCLA
Maryland at Virginia
Sept. 20/21
Marshall at Ohio State
Washington at Wisconsin
USC at Northwestern
Arkansas State at Michigan
Toledo at Maryland
Charlotte at Indiana
Kent State at Penn State
Eastern Illinois at Illinois
UCLA at LSU
Rutgers at Virginia Tech
Michigan State at Boston College
Purdue at Oregon State
Sept. 28
Oregon at Nebraska
Northwestern at UCLA
Wisconsin at Michigan
Minnesota at Indiana
Iowa at Rutgers
So what models work best? If the league places a premium on a pure rotation, then a 1-8-8 configuration is the easiest to implement. But significant historical rivalries like Michigan-Michigan State and Iowa-Minnesota would get tossed aside in that structure. Plus, USC and UCLA would play Rutgers and Maryland as often as they'd face Washington and Oregon. With a bicoastal conference that will have grown by 50 percent during the past 10 years, geography and history may need to play a role in scheduling.
If the 11 permanent rivalries plus West Coast series become annual games, then designating three yearly foes for each program has merit. It would enable every team to play the others three times in seven years or six times in 14. There could be some adjustments to permanent rivalries over time, but no longer could the league guarantee every athlete plays on each campus during his college career.
Predicting October 2024
Oct. 4/5
Minnesota at Oregon
Illinois at Ohio State
Michigan at USC
Penn State at Washington
UCLA at Rutgers
Michigan State at Nebraska
Indiana at Northwestern
Purdue at Maryland
Oct. 11/12
Washington at Michigan State
Nebraska at UCLA
Wisconsin at Iowa
Oregon at Illinois
Northwestern at Penn State
USC at Purdue
Rutgers at Minnesota
(Notre Dame at night on NBC)
Oct. 18/19
Ohio State at Michigan State
UCLA at Michigan
Illinois at USC
Northwestern at Minnesota
Indiana at Wisconsin
Penn State at Purdue
Oct. 25/26
Oregon at USC
Nebraska at Penn State
Michigan State at Michigan
Minnesota at UCLA
Rutgers at Ohio State
Maryland at Iowa
Or, the league could set up a geographical pod system designed to preserve certain games and then find an unequal but manageable way to filter handle scheduling. For instance, five pods could consist of Washington-USC-UCLA-Oregon, Minnesota-Wisconsin-Iowa-Nebraska, Illinois-Northwestern-Indiana-Purdue, Michigan-Michigan State-Ohio State and Penn State-Maryland-Rutgers. Then the league could employ a rotation mixed with competitive equity to establish annual matchups.
Finally, the Big Ten could return to geographic divisions, but that seems the least likely. The West Coast schools could have brand equity for the league's television partners. It would be a wasted opportunity for USC and Oregon to rarely play Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and instead face Purdue and Northwestern each year.
Predicting November 2024
Nov. 2
Michigan at Illinois
Ohio State at Oregon
Wisconsin at USC
Iowa at Minnesota
Penn State at Indiana
Nebraska at Northwestern
Rutgers at Michigan State
Nov. 9
Washington at UCLA
Ohio State at Penn State
Purdue at Wisconsin
Maryland at Oregon
Illinois at Rutgers
Indiana at Nebraska
(Notre Dame at night on NBC)
Nov. 16
Minnesota at Michigan
Iowa at Ohio State
USC at UCLA
Oregon at Indiana
Nebraska at Purdue
Illinois at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Maryland
Nov. 23
Ohio State at Minnesota
USC at Washington
Wisconsin at Nebraska
UCLA at Oregon
Indiana at Michigan State
Maryland at Michigan
Northwestern at Purdue
Penn State at Rutgers
Nov. 29/30
Nebraska at Iowa
Washington at Oregon
Michigan at Ohio State
Michigan State at Penn State
Notre Dame at USC
Purdue at Indiana
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Illinois at Northwestern
Rutgers at Maryland
Before the invitations to Washington and Oregon, the division-less structure was designed to give the Big Ten a better chance at more College Football Playoff access when the field grows to 12 in 2024. That tenet still will guide the league and school officials through this process with 18 programs. As for determining conference championship participants, good luck establishing that formula.
by Scott Dochterman, The Athletic
With painstaking detail and discussions lasting for more than a year, Big Ten and campus officials crafted a league football schedule beginning in 2024 that eliminated divisions, protected signature rivalries and ensured every athlete would play at least one game at every venue in a four-year period.
It was called "flex protect-plus" and its supporters were excited to tout it during the weeks after it was unveiled June 8.
"What they've put together shows a tremendous amount of creativity and recognizes the unique situations that each of our schools faces with rivalries,” Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman said at Big Ten media days July 26. “(It) finds that balance point between not fabricating or creating new rivalries where none exist, but also making sure that we don’t eliminate great games and long-standing traditions.”
All of that work, discussion and compromise became merely a team-building exercise and nothing more. On Friday, the Big Ten added Washington and Oregon for the 2024 season, which rendered everything but the principles of flex protect-plus moot. The league now must adjust its 2024 scheduling and structure.
With the Washington and Oregon announcement barely hours old, it's too early for the Big Ten brass to rearrange the 2024 opponents, let alone brandish a schedule. But it's not too early for The Athletic to reconstruct each team's 2024 opponents and put together an equitable schedule.
Using the most narrow scheduling tweaks coupled with the conference's scheduling principles, here's a look at how the Big Ten might (should) rework the 2024 schedule when Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA join the conference.
Opponent Changes
The first step in building a 2024 schedule comes with opponent changes. Surprisingly, this isn't a real difficult process. Whether Oregon and Washington become annual protected foes with USC and UCLA remains undetermined, but it makes sense to have them all play one another in 2024.
Based on the 2023 Pac-12 schedule and the Big Ten's 2024 plan, Oregon should join UCLA with five home league games while Washington and USC should only have four. Then one home and one road opponent for USC and UCLA should shift to Washington and Oregon. In this scenario, USC would lose Iowa (home) and Maryland (road) to Washington, while UCLA would move a home date with Ohio State and a road trip to Indiana to Oregon.
That would leave Washington and Oregon with five of nine opponents. Then all that's needed is to alter four other games. For instance, Maryland is scheduled to play at Illinois, and Minnesota is set to play Nebraska. Simply add those games to Oregon's schedule with the Ducks playing at Illinois and Nebraska and hosting Maryland and Minnesota. For Washington, shift Purdue at Michigan State and Penn State at Wisconsin to the Huskies' schedule in a similar fashion.
Those tweaks would prevent wholesale changes for 2024, keep the predetermined permanent rivalries intact and have little disruption to the current 14 teams' schedules. As for the four newcomers, this is how their schedules would shake out:
Washington
Home: USC, Iowa, Purdue, Penn State
Away: UCLA, Oregon, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Oregon
Home: Washington, UCLA, Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota
Away: USC, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
UCLA
Home: USC, Washington, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern
Away: Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers
USC
Home: Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin
Away: UCLA, Washington, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
Other Changes:
Iowa at Washington (was USC); Washington (was USC) at Maryland; Ohio State at Oregon (was UCLA); Indiana at Oregon (was UCLA); Oregon at Illinois; Maryland at Oregon (was Maryland at Illinois); Purdue at Washington, Washington at Michigan State (was Purdue at Michigan State); Minnesota at Oregon; Oregon at Nebraska (was Minnesota at Nebraska); Penn State at Washington; Washington at Wisconsin (was Penn State at Wisconsin)
Should the former Pac-12 schools become permanent annual rivals, a perfect rotation would be two West Coast road trips in years when that school has five. That would limit each school's cross-country trips to three in a given year.
The Schedule
No matter how the schedule shakes out, there will be dynamite matchups, travel difficulties and weekly oddities. There's no way to avoid it with 18 teams. If there's a blessing in 2024 (and 2025), it's that there are 14 weeks in the season. And with two newcomers already with scheduled matchups at Hawaii, there are Week Zero games, too.
Oregon is slated to play at Hawaii on Aug. 24 and UCLA is in Honolulu a week later. That allows UCLA to play a Week Zero game, and it makes sense to get a long trip out of the way before school starts. In this scenario, we'll have the Bruins opening at Iowa on Aug. 24.
But the Big Ten has an interest in attaching Week Zero to the regular season. As a league with 18 institutions, spreading out the inventory makes sense. Perhaps the Big Ten could obtain a waiver -- or push for immediate rules changes -- so schools traveling more than two time zones away can play on Week Zero. In my schedule, we'd add two more Week Zero games: USC at Penn State and Washington at Maryland.
In a 14-game schedule, there are two automatic off weeks, and with a Week Zero, that makes three byes and some quirks. Iowa, Nebraska and Rutgers have three-game road streaks broken up by a bye in a four-week stretch. Michigan State has a three-game home sequence and a bye in four weeks. But no team has directly more than two straight home or away Big Ten games.
Because of travel concerns, I put no West Coast team on the road for consecutive trips except for USC, which goes to Washington and UCLA. Minnesota is the only team to take two West Coast trips, but one was followed by a home game and the other week with a bye.
Some other 2024 scheduling notes:
- Three Big Ten members still require a nonconference game for the 2024 season: Washington, Northwestern and Rutgers
- With 15 weeks, it would allow NBC and CBS each to have four top-week selections and FOX with seven. On Week Zero, NBC would get that claim.
- It already is determined that the Big Ten will air two games on Black Friday and a Sunday night game on Labor Day weekend.
Predicting August/September 2024
Aug. 24/25
UCLA at Iowa
USC at Penn State
Oregon at Hawaii
Washington at Maryland
Aug. 29-31/Sept. 1
North Carolina at Minnesota
Western Michigan at Wisconsin
Idaho at Oregon
Purdue at Illinois
Fresno State at Michigan
Connecticut at Maryland
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State
Texas-El Paso at Nebraska
Miami (OH) at Northwestern
Florida International at Indiana
Illinois State at Iowa
UCLA at Hawaii
Weber State at Washington
Penn State at West Virginia
USC vs. LSU (at Las Vegas)
Southern Mississippi at Ohio State
The Future
For 2025 and beyond, the Big Ten has major decisions to make. The mathematical symmetry in place for a 16-game model has changed. The plan of 11 protected rivalries and 13 double-plays in a two-year period is tossed aside.
According to Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny, the league "will look to incorporate most, if not all, of the principles from flex protect-plus at 18 now instead of 16. Some areas may need to adjust a bit to ensure a rotation can be built, but the foundation of wanting to play each other more, not less, and preserving rivalries will still guide the conversation."
Predicting September 2024
Sept. 6/7
Texas Tech at Oregon
Texas at Michigan
Iowa State at Iowa
Colorado at Nebraska
Kansas at Illinois
Michigan State at Maryland
Duke at Northwestern
Western Michigan at Ohio State
Bowling Green at Penn State
Rhode Island at Minnesota
Indiana State at Purdue
South Dakota at Wisconsin
Akron at Rutgers
Eastern Michigan at Washington
Utah State at USC
Indiana at Louisville
Sept. 13/14
Boise State at Oregon
Alabama at Wisconsin
Northwestern at Ohio State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Michigan at Rutgers
Louisiana-Lafayette at Michigan State
Troy at Iowa
Nevada at Minnesota
Central Michigan at Illinois
Northern Iowa at Nebraska
Fresno State at UCLA
Maryland at Virginia
Sept. 20/21
Marshall at Ohio State
Washington at Wisconsin
USC at Northwestern
Arkansas State at Michigan
Toledo at Maryland
Charlotte at Indiana
Kent State at Penn State
Eastern Illinois at Illinois
UCLA at LSU
Rutgers at Virginia Tech
Michigan State at Boston College
Purdue at Oregon State
Sept. 28
Oregon at Nebraska
Northwestern at UCLA
Wisconsin at Michigan
Minnesota at Indiana
Iowa at Rutgers
So what models work best? If the league places a premium on a pure rotation, then a 1-8-8 configuration is the easiest to implement. But significant historical rivalries like Michigan-Michigan State and Iowa-Minnesota would get tossed aside in that structure. Plus, USC and UCLA would play Rutgers and Maryland as often as they'd face Washington and Oregon. With a bicoastal conference that will have grown by 50 percent during the past 10 years, geography and history may need to play a role in scheduling.
If the 11 permanent rivalries plus West Coast series become annual games, then designating three yearly foes for each program has merit. It would enable every team to play the others three times in seven years or six times in 14. There could be some adjustments to permanent rivalries over time, but no longer could the league guarantee every athlete plays on each campus during his college career.
Predicting October 2024
Oct. 4/5
Minnesota at Oregon
Illinois at Ohio State
Michigan at USC
Penn State at Washington
UCLA at Rutgers
Michigan State at Nebraska
Indiana at Northwestern
Purdue at Maryland
Oct. 11/12
Washington at Michigan State
Nebraska at UCLA
Wisconsin at Iowa
Oregon at Illinois
Northwestern at Penn State
USC at Purdue
Rutgers at Minnesota
(Notre Dame at night on NBC)
Oct. 18/19
Ohio State at Michigan State
UCLA at Michigan
Illinois at USC
Northwestern at Minnesota
Indiana at Wisconsin
Penn State at Purdue
Oct. 25/26
Oregon at USC
Nebraska at Penn State
Michigan State at Michigan
Minnesota at UCLA
Rutgers at Ohio State
Maryland at Iowa
Or, the league could set up a geographical pod system designed to preserve certain games and then find an unequal but manageable way to filter handle scheduling. For instance, five pods could consist of Washington-USC-UCLA-Oregon, Minnesota-Wisconsin-Iowa-Nebraska, Illinois-Northwestern-Indiana-Purdue, Michigan-Michigan State-Ohio State and Penn State-Maryland-Rutgers. Then the league could employ a rotation mixed with competitive equity to establish annual matchups.
Finally, the Big Ten could return to geographic divisions, but that seems the least likely. The West Coast schools could have brand equity for the league's television partners. It would be a wasted opportunity for USC and Oregon to rarely play Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and instead face Purdue and Northwestern each year.
Predicting November 2024
Nov. 2
Michigan at Illinois
Ohio State at Oregon
Wisconsin at USC
Iowa at Minnesota
Penn State at Indiana
Nebraska at Northwestern
Rutgers at Michigan State
Nov. 9
Washington at UCLA
Ohio State at Penn State
Purdue at Wisconsin
Maryland at Oregon
Illinois at Rutgers
Indiana at Nebraska
(Notre Dame at night on NBC)
Nov. 16
Minnesota at Michigan
Iowa at Ohio State
USC at UCLA
Oregon at Indiana
Nebraska at Purdue
Illinois at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Maryland
Nov. 23
Ohio State at Minnesota
USC at Washington
Wisconsin at Nebraska
UCLA at Oregon
Indiana at Michigan State
Maryland at Michigan
Northwestern at Purdue
Penn State at Rutgers
Nov. 29/30
Nebraska at Iowa
Washington at Oregon
Michigan at Ohio State
Michigan State at Penn State
Notre Dame at USC
Purdue at Indiana
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Illinois at Northwestern
Rutgers at Maryland
Before the invitations to Washington and Oregon, the division-less structure was designed to give the Big Ten a better chance at more College Football Playoff access when the field grows to 12 in 2024. That tenet still will guide the league and school officials through this process with 18 programs. As for determining conference championship participants, good luck establishing that formula.
