Good lord did Riley ever lower a lot of our expectations.
Next year, with Frost?
3-0 in the non-con
6-0 in the division (5-1 at worst)
1-2 or 2-1 vs the west
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Worst case: 9-3
Best case: 11-1
I Strongly disagree
Akron- Win- they are 8-4, not a bad team but not a lot of depth. Probability NU wins this game 95%
Troy- Win- they are 9-2 and beat LSU- so not a guaranteed win in any way shape or form- but a probable win 80%
Colorado- A competitive team that finished 5-7 but only 3 starters back on O , but 8 on D- Losing Leavitt hurt their D- win 75%
Michigan- coming off probable 9 win season- with 8 returners on D and 7 on O- will be very strong on D- Loss- winning chance is 30%
Purdue- coming off 6-7 win season returning 10 on O and 6 on D- played us tough and KNOWS they can beat us. 10 returning on O and 6 on D- Win 70%
Wisconsin- bully of the west- ALWAYS a great defense. 12-1 this season 9 returning on O and 5 on D- Loss- probable win chance 20%
Northwestern- 10-3 this year, good coaching, 7 returning on O and 7 ON D. Jackson FINALLY gone. Win- 60%
Minnesota- 5-7 know they can beat us. Has spurts of playing well. Young team started 5 Freshmen, 10 on O returning and 6 on D. Win 65%
Ohio State- We arent in their galaxy yet. Loss 5% chance of winning
Illinois- some signs of life, starting and playing lots of Freshmen. Returning 9 starters on O and 9 on D. Win 80%
Michigan State- 9-4 always play great D and find ways to win. Yes weve had success but they have 10 returners on O and 9 on Defense- VERY young team. Loss winning chance 30%
Iowa 7-6 7 returners on O and 6 on D- they have had our number Loss- winning chance 35%
So While I predict 7-5 in regular season and feel that would be a VERY successful first year. I think it will end up 6-6. We dont win any of the games I predict we lose and we lose one Ive predicted we win. NONE of the games are real gimmies with the exception of Akron, Illinois and then Troy and Colorado- which are loseable games. Purdue probably fits there too- even with a change in coaching our margin for error is not big. We have one of those games where we dont play well and get a few breaks against us- injuries etc- we could lose.
So worst case is probably 5-7 and best 7-5- Im guessing we end up at 6-6
If we get a good matchup in the bowl game and finish 8-5- that would be a fantastic first year, End up 7-6- and do the below- I would be happy
All Im looking for is more fight, better physicality and just watching better coached football. Will know that when I see it- PROGRESS.