Total rushing yards is a "selective stat"? Michigan did't win games because they continued to ineffectively run the ball. They won games because they had a great defense.
Hmmmmm...Run pass ratios of good teams
- Thread starter Tulsa Tom
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Timsun you are a reasonable guy but this is the crux of it right here" If you need a yard for a first down, the defense isn't quite sure if you will run it for a first or hit the tight end... "
Good teams run in college because the QB's and receivers are not as reliable. If you want to win titles being a pansie and passing on 4th and one is not going to cut. Right now with this staff we are a weak minded team, Iowa was not as they won the game because of it. If we had gone head to head against them in a slugfest - I believe we would have won
I think it is going to vary, depending on the personnel, but what is the difference between 50% and 57% run percentage in a game?
The answer is about 5 more running plays, and 5 fewer passing plays. Doesn't sound like a lot, but maybe that is deceiving?
I'd rather see us at the 57% along with the rest of the top 25. Success leaves clues.
The answer is about 5 more running plays, and 5 fewer passing plays. Doesn't sound like a lot, but maybe that is deceiving?
I'd rather see us at the 57% along with the rest of the top 25. Success leaves clues.
I'm not disputing this, or anything else others have said... The question was asked what's so important about balance, and I attempted to answer the question. I agree, on 4th and 1, I want to be a team that can ram it down their throats for a first down, but if the question about balance is asked, "why do it?", this is my answer. The article quoted by another poster after my post said it even better than me. This is why coaches want balance, so the defense has to guess. Is that the right play is another question entirely.
What would be your W/L with "an average QB"? I'm thinking still only 7 or 8 wins.
Oklahoma didn't win the National Championship with the offense you're describing. Under Stoops, the pass yardage was around twice that of their rushing yardage until 2002. Higher pass attempts in those years as well. 2000 was their National Championship year.
2000 Stats
2002 Stats
Edited to fix link.
Know where you are. Personally I was fine with that fourth down call IF WE LOOK FOR PROBABLY OUR MOST TALENTED PLAYER ON OFFENSE THE TIGHT END FIRST. You don't cuss in church or you may go to hell. You don't yell fire in a theater or you may go to jail. You run the ball on short yardage at NU or the fans will crucify you. Know where you are. I will note that the Patriots chose to pass on short yardage situations last night as did the Broncos. Its an NFL mindset. We have a Pro-style offense and an offensive coordinator fresh from the NFL. Its what we are going to get. I love the design of our passing game but I would love to see us be able to run it effectively 80% of the time. Not gonna happen without elite level O line and RB talent.
Damon made mention this morning that "running the ball when you have to" is entirely different than when you want to. And the "when you have to" part, is the part of the running game NU sucks at.
Trudging out a bunch of nice YPC's earned from parts of the game when we didn't have to run and the whole balance thing was clicking, doesn't pass the eyeball test when NU more often than not struggled in short yardage situations.
I think Damon mentioned we were better on the year in 3rd and 8 than 3rd and short.
Trudging out a bunch of nice YPC's earned from parts of the game when we didn't have to run and the whole balance thing was clicking, doesn't pass the eyeball test when NU more often than not struggled in short yardage situations.
I think Damon mentioned we were better on the year in 3rd and 8 than 3rd and short.
again as someone else stated its not about yardage - but after his first year at OU stoops went to a more running oriented attack to help his defense - I am sure there are google articles that will support this
You cannot look at yardage when determining effectiveness. Running the ball sets up play action and keeps your defense fresh even if you are not putting up video game numbers. Passing the ball gases your defense
It has been shown time and again a running yard is worth more than a passing yard - Now with NU in 2015 it was not just that we did not run enough it was when we decided not to run - When we absolutely need a play we pass - Its pansie football and will never win us anything, since the coaches have this attitude how can you expect the Oline to have anything different
Damon should check the stats. Cross was stopped one time all year long on third (or fourth) and three or less. Same with Jano. I will take an 80+% success rate from those guys on third and short.
You know why we stunk on third and short? Fly sweeps...running small backs...passing the ball. Benning actually helps make the argument that stupid play calling is what lead to our abysmal third and short percentage.
It seems most people are working themselves into a froth because Langsdorf and Riley aren't about to be confused with Bielema or Osborne, X's and O's wise. When you hire those guys, you are hiring their system. Saban is not going to come here and run the option, Chip Kelly isn't going to come here and run the Power I.
People keep rolling out Sam McKewon as "see he gets it with respect to player rotation and playcalling" neglecting the fact that McKewon stated that "throwing the ball a lot is not a moral crime, even in the Big 10". Tending to concentrate on the paradigm shift between Langsdorf in the 1st quarter and Langsdorf in the 4th quarter.
To me, it seems dumb to continually expect that somehow one day, we're going to wake up and be a power run team, we're not. We're not trying to be. We bought a coach who wants balance and will throw the ball on 3rd and short sometimes and run the ball on third and short sometimes. We're not a team that's going to run until you prove you can stop it, but even if we were, DL, DB, and several others have pointed out that you don't have to look very hard to see where we just get blown up in the run game at times. But its over and done, if we want Bielema's O, then next time we'll go out and hire Bielema, but continually seeing people whine that Riley isn't Bielema, or at a minimum won't do a Bielema impression after 40 years of coaching is kinda dumb.
I never argued about Bielema or Osborne. I said Benning is wrong if he thinks we haven't been able to pick up 3rd (or 4th) and shorts. Our two big backs do it at 80+% rates. I don't care what your system is. On one of the biggest plays of the year you go with what works. Running Cross/Jano works.
Yah my post was rather just a general vent, than any one situation.
I'd like to think that Cross would have picked it up, but I didn't think Ekatite would blow up two blockers and completely stuff him at another point in the game either.
You'll have to probably rectify your numbers to some. You claimed earlier that Cross only missed one short conversion all year, and yet you keep throwing out 80% as a lower bound. If Cross is really that good and you have the numbers to prove it, then your lower bound should be like 95% minimum. It makes it seem like you are attaching arbitrary numbers to an opinion, rather than working from any set of observed actual happenings.
I'm not arguing about Run v. Pass as a philosophy. I'm pointing out that you're a little off about the timing of the changes at Oklahoma.
1999-2001 (which include their championship) they passed more than they ran, by attempts (as I noted before) and yardage. 2009-2012 they reverted back to that form.
OU was a fairly balanced football team by the eyeball. I don't follow OU in depth (other than the fact my father is a fan so I watch the games but can't quote 15 year old stats), but OU under Stoops has largely been known by their QB play. Heupel, White, etc. Chucking the ball around the yard. Even when OU wasn't all that great as of late, they still had the Belldozer and that power run game didn't get them very far absent a passing attack.
I think if folks want to talk about philosophy, we need to rectify this situation:
We keep going back to Ganz as the best throwing QB NU has had in the last 20 years. Kid certainly put up some numbers.
If I remember right, he was throwing to Swift (3* from Minnesota) and Peterson (walkon) when putting up all those video game numbers. I believe Ganz was a 2* out of Illinois himself.
So why are we so sure that "NU can't recruit the kind of talent to have a good passing offense" and "passing offense can never work in the cold north"? It seems to me, that even in a down swing, NU can recruit walkons, 2 and 3* players from the Midwest, and even better as evidenced by all the receivers we pull in and the QB's Riley is in on and has landed. It also seems to me that if Ganz had a defense, we might talk about his offense in the same vein we talk about any of the really good Husker offenses.
None of the assumptions about passing game, to me, seem foregone that NU can never succeed in any other system than a Power I.
We keep going back to Ganz as the best throwing QB NU has had in the last 20 years. Kid certainly put up some numbers.
If I remember right, he was throwing to Swift (3* from Minnesota) and Peterson (walkon) when putting up all those video game numbers. I believe Ganz was a 2* out of Illinois himself.
So why are we so sure that "NU can't recruit the kind of talent to have a good passing offense" and "passing offense can never work in the cold north"? It seems to me, that even in a down swing, NU can recruit walkons, 2 and 3* players from the Midwest, and even better as evidenced by all the receivers we pull in and the QB's Riley is in on and has landed. It also seems to me that if Ganz had a defense, we might talk about his offense in the same vein we talk about any of the really good Husker offenses.
None of the assumptions about passing game, to me, seem foregone that NU can never succeed in any other system than a Power I.
Year Rush Pass Total Percent Run W L
15 434 439 873 50 5 7
14 587 359 946 62 9 4
13 584 378 962 61 9 4
12 662 378 1040 64 10 4
11 611 293 904 68 9 4
10 634 282 916 69 10 4
9 512 364 876 58 10 4
8 486 295 781 62 9 4
7 417 296 713 58 5 7
Clearly a "dedication" to the run game can bring you success, but there is no guarantee, just look at 07 where we were dedicated to the run game and finished where we are today. A bigger issues is the turnover on passing plays and bad decision making displayed by Tommy Armstrong as a returning starter. Obviously not every int is credited to Tommy, but 21 int's is not going to do it at this level.
You can win with a 50/50 balance, and moments like the 4 and 1 in the fourth against Iowa where Tommy throws the 500 fade instead of taking the wide open flat route to Cethan that would have been a huge gain if not a touchdown or the int at the goal line that gave Iowa a free score off his back foot. These are things as a junior you shouldn't do anymore. You can argue maybe they should have taken the game out of Armstrong's hand, but saying the call was wrong is myopic. You can have the perfect play called, apparently you can't force your junior QB to make the right throw.
Edit: IDK why the table won't line up, it looks fine in the post editor. Apologies for that.
15 434 439 873 50 5 7
14 587 359 946 62 9 4
13 584 378 962 61 9 4
12 662 378 1040 64 10 4
11 611 293 904 68 9 4
10 634 282 916 69 10 4
9 512 364 876 58 10 4
8 486 295 781 62 9 4
7 417 296 713 58 5 7
Clearly a "dedication" to the run game can bring you success, but there is no guarantee, just look at 07 where we were dedicated to the run game and finished where we are today. A bigger issues is the turnover on passing plays and bad decision making displayed by Tommy Armstrong as a returning starter. Obviously not every int is credited to Tommy, but 21 int's is not going to do it at this level.
You can win with a 50/50 balance, and moments like the 4 and 1 in the fourth against Iowa where Tommy throws the 500 fade instead of taking the wide open flat route to Cethan that would have been a huge gain if not a touchdown or the int at the goal line that gave Iowa a free score off his back foot. These are things as a junior you shouldn't do anymore. You can argue maybe they should have taken the game out of Armstrong's hand, but saying the call was wrong is myopic. You can have the perfect play called, apparently you can't force your junior QB to make the right throw.
Edit: IDK why the table won't line up, it looks fine in the post editor. Apologies for that.
I threw in the 80% so people would not say I was just cherry picking one guy's numbers. I included Jano in those numbers to show the argument was really about what our big backs do...and in essence what our line can do with big backs when we have to run it.
Coming into the game Cross was 7 for 7 on 3rd or 4th down and three yards or less. He ended up the season 7 for 8. Jano was 4 for 5. Thus our big backs ended up getting first downs 11 out of 13 times on 3rd/4th down plays of three yards or less which is an 85% success rate.
P.S. Your 95% minimum comment is probably because you assumed that Cross was fed the ball a lot on third and short. He wasn't given it that much.
Also, in 07-14 we had Helu, Burkhead, and Ameer. Three NFL backs. We don't have a RB on this roster even close to that.
Or, he had 8 starters returning from a top 22 scoring defense (#7 total d, #15 rush d, #19 pass d) along with keeping the defensive coordinator that engineered those results, and leaned on that defense as the strength of their team for the best success.
Harbaugh didn't stick to the run against Utah (43 pass, 29 rush). He didn't against Ohio State (47 pass, 25 rush). He didn't against Indiana (46 pass, 28 rush). Why is that? Oh, that's right, he couldn't lean on his defense, that's why. Sure, he ran more against Michigan State (33 rush, 25 pass) and Minnesota (34 rush, 27 pass), 2 of 5 doesn't cut it though, based on your comments.
It's no different than what Pelini did. He had 7 or 8 "returning starters" from the 2009 defense heading in to the 2010 season and his rushing percentage went from 59% in 2009 to 69% in 2010. It then dropped a percentage to 68% in 2011 (first year in B1G), 64% in 2012, 61% in 2013 and remained pretty much the same in back-to-back seasons at 62% in 2014.
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Actually you are completely WRONG with Harbaugh sticking to the run even when it was not working.
The last three games of the season Michigan threw more passes each game then they ran. Rudock was the first Michigan QB in HISTORY to have 4 straight games with 250 yards passing or more. He did this in the last four games of the season.
This was even said during the Michigan vs tOSU game that Harbaugh went away from running the football and more to the pass because the RUN GAME WAS NOT WORKING>
This is how you get in trouble looking at stats in a vacuum like the OP is trolling errr uhhh doing here.
Michigans last three games they threw: 131 times and ran 83 times. They went 3-1 in those games. But yes Harbaugh WENT AWAY from running more than passing because the run game was not working.
I have no problem at all with being 50/50 assuming you have the players in place for it. With the current returning players, I was hoping it would be more run focused and gradually phased in with players recruited for that balanced style.
I just don't believe the current players were put in the best situation to succeed this year. Just my two cents.
I just don't believe the current players were put in the best situation to succeed this year. Just my two cents.
No, its because even if we only fed Imani the rock once and he converted the third down, he'd be at 100%. His conversion percentage is good, regardless of the number of times we make use of it.
Well, to be at 95% or higher (other than 100%) you would have had to have had at least 20 carries when he was only given eight chances. If you mention 95% the assumption must be 20+ carries.
We were also 100% on the tight veer(ish) formation, up till Io_a stopped it. Eventually, the numbers work against you. And in the case of the 4th and 1, which I would've kicked it, I see no problem with the play called. Tommy is right on the 0 coverage read, that's what you want for a deep ball, he has to actually understand the importance of the play which is keep the chains moving.
Some are acting like a 1st down is a guarantee had Cross or Janovich ran the ball. One thing is for certain, and that's it, we had a wide open TE in the flat with nobody even close to him.
Might have been a good time for a new wrinkle off those plays. Iowa had done their homework on that near formation. NU ran what you expected from the pre-snap alignment and Iowa stuffed it. They hit a big play when they added the QB keep as the "surprise" off that set a few games back, but they were in need of some new material in this one.
Agree on the FG. You have the whole rest of the game to be desperate. Don't be desperate early.
Don't disagree with anything you said. I would have been fine with the kick...or even a power run. The only issue I have with much of the discussion is whether or not Tommy could have known that Carter would be wide open from the pre-snap read. The answer is no.
You have an outside backer that is lined up on the outside shoulder of Carter. Pre-snap you "know" that he is blitzing? C'mon Tim. You are smarter than that. Now you are just being ridiculous. Again, with that stupid play call Tommy should have gone to Carter considering the situation. But the idea that he will be wide open based on a pre-snap read is silly.
Looks like that play has three options then. Riley on the go, Alonzo Moore(i think) on the hitch, and Cethan in the flat with a rub/pick run by the other reciever on their side. Given the context, even with zero coverage shouldnt Tommy look away from the deep ball and know that either the hitch or flat will be wide open?
Not claming i know football xs and os that much but i would think given the situation you look away from the deep ball and move the chains.
He had as much chance at guessing about the backer as he did not knowing if Ekatite would beat Imani to the ball again.
The bottom line, the team is inconsistent top to bottom. Both Tim and Tom have well demonstrated that each of the run/pass philosophies had "go to" plays that were hitting on a very high percentage bordering on perfect. The player makes the play, and coaches are heroes, the player doesn't make a play, the coaches are dogs.
We've seen TA hit Carter for big plays, and Carter drops the ball. Or we've seen another drive in the Iowa game, where TA hit Carter, what, 3 times in a row to drive us down the field? We've seen Imani run roughshod, we've seen any number of backs including Imani get stoned in the backfield. We've seen Reilly catch a ball between his legs, Westerkamp behind his back, we've seen TA throw numerous balls up for grabs where Moore comes down with it, and more often than not, a defender will.
I didn't have any problem with the playcall, Carter and TA had a mojo during that game, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that as usual, TA might lock into a first option like a Westy or Carter on a critical play. He went for the home run ball though.
On that play, Tommy didn't even do 1 progression, once the ball was snapped, he tossed up the fade immediately. He didn't have a chance to look at that side of the field, he already knew where he was going. The problems is, he's not being aware of down and distance, knowing that he just needs 1 yard to get a new set of downs.
It's still a mind boggling offensive playcall, knowing what you have at QB. They should have just kicked the field goal.
At least the prior staff knew how to use Armstrong and play to his strengths. This current staff, has not done that.
It's like TA's been trying to prove himself to the coaches, every game, that he can run their offense. And on the other end, is DL trying to prove TA wrong.. Maybe it's not like that at all, but it sure seems like it.
It's still a mind boggling offensive playcall, knowing what you have at QB. They should have just kicked the field goal.
At least the prior staff knew how to use Armstrong and play to his strengths. This current staff, has not done that.
It's like TA's been trying to prove himself to the coaches, every game, that he can run their offense. And on the other end, is DL trying to prove TA wrong.. Maybe it's not like that at all, but it sure seems like it.
His main problem is that he doesn't do progressions well. It's been this way for years. Year 4 won't be any different.
You're damn right I know he's not going to be in route coverage. Look what Westerkamp did, immediately got to the middle of the defenders body then rubbed off to his route, exactly how it was designed with that front. Look what Cross does, steps right up to the left for protection. Neither player hesitates with a false step or anything.
By the time Tommy got the snap, the play was wide open, see below. Absolutely no question about it this, it is read pre-snap. Bunch 1, bunch 2, bunch 3 - each read is off the other - then the deep ball. This is about as basic as it gets...
It gets back to that "tree falls in the forest with no one around" stuff. If you call a perfect pass play for a bad QB.....is it still a good play?
I'm guessing you don't know much about linebacker play. The OLB is still in perfect position here to get to the flat. He jams the first guy to the inside (important so he still has outside leverage) and then can slide into the flat and Tommy has to throw over his head. (And we know how good Tommy is on the touch pass.) Or the call can be to run a delayed blitz which is exactly what he did. So now pre-snap Tommy was supposed to know he would come on a delayed blitz thus leaving Carter wide open? Once again ridiculous.You're damn right I know he's not going to be in route coverage. Look what Westerkamp did, immediately got to the middle of the defenders body then rubbed off to his route, exactly how it was designed with that front. Look what Cross does, steps right up to the left for protection. Neither player hesitates with a false step or anything.
By the time Tommy got the snap, the play was wide open, see below. Absolutely no question about it this, it is read pre-snap. Bunch 1, bunch 2, bunch 3 - each read is off the other - then the deep ball. This is about as basic as it gets...
This is not some new amazing play that your buddy Langs dreamed up that can't be covered. It gets run all the time...and the OLB covers the flat. Watch a game or two on Saturdays and Sundays and you will see OLB's hitting the first receiver and sliding to the flat.
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