D1 - Sorenson: Off The Top Of My Head
Hey there, StitchHeads, if you can rip yourself away from the Final Four madness on your television long enough, you'll notice that we have a pretty good weekend of baseball games on the docket. Before we get to that, let's look back at some of the things that happened in the month of March.
What We Learned In March
1- Road games are hard
It's become a consistent theme year after year, teams play home-heavy slates and cater to their fans' carnivorous appetites for easy wins. Then they go on the road for a weekend for the first time in March and stark reality hits the loss column. Teams like Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina and Georgia Tech have followed that formula through March.
2- Mother Nature is even more of a wicked witch.
After calling last season "one of the worst winters ever for college baseball" we have apparently found another that was even meaner: 2015's. According to Cynthia Mills of D1baseball.com, the weather has actually been much worse this year than it was a year ago. Through the games of March 31st, here are the stats on weather-affected games this season:
- Games Canceled: 425
- Game postponed: 314
- Date change: 177
- Location change: 221
For 2014:
- Games cancelled: 293
- Games postponed: 314
- Date change: 166
- Venue change: 124
3- Oh mercy, Cal State Fullerton is back in the danger zone again.
The Titans started March by sweeping then-No. 5 Texas Tech. But then the Titans went 5-8 the remainder of the month. Now, because of this latest skein, the Titans are in danger of missing out on the postseason for the first time in 27 years. Yes, this time last year, coach Vanderhook was bemoaning that his team was soft and in danger of missing out on the postseason for the first time in 26 years. But could it be even more serious this time? The offense is anemic, as the Titans hit just .253 as a team, eight points less than their opponents do. There is one encouraging note in that the Titans are still at No. 35 in the RPI, well within striking distance of an at-large bid, as long as they can stay above water here and put together a win streak or two.
4- Eastern Illinois is looking East for a sunset.
Poor Panthers, they just can't seem to get things right. They sailed through March with another months-worth of a perfect record. But that's a perfect 0-18 through the third month. The most maddening loss of all?
Tuesday's 18-14 loss to Illinois State saw the Panthers take a 13-12 lead into the ninth inning, only to surrender six runs to the Redbirds in the final frame and lose, again.
5- Stanford is the most unlucky team in the country.
I blame myself on this one. Last I saw of the Cardinal - in person that is - they had just beaten Texas for the second time and sat at 9-6. Those nine wins included wins over Rice, Cal State Fullerton, Indiana and Nevada. Since that Saturday win, the Cardinal has gone 1-8, despite having leads in five of them and losing their first six Pac 12 games. The injury bug has also hit as they lost their All-American ace Cal Quantrill. More about that right now
6- Three dreaded words: Tommy. John. Surgery.
In the month of March, we had two more elite-level pitchers get shelved for the season in the above-mentioned Stanford ace Cal Quantrill and also Duke fireballer Michael Matuella. This is very similar to last season where a pair of big-time, first-round arms fell victim to surgery in Josh Hoffman at East Carolina and Erick Fedde at UNLV. Ugh.
7- No team has been harder to explain than Clemson
The Tigers started the month by completing a weekend series vs. South Carolina. But then everything went haywire. They lost two of three to N.C. State, then lost two of three to Notre Dame, then won a series at Virginia Tech and finally lost two of three to Wake Forest. In the next five days they'll take on North Carolina and Georgia. Let's see what happens next.
8- Inconsistency reigns in the SEC
Speaking of roller coaster seasons, the SEC is hoarding those right now. Here are some of the wildest rides of college baseball with some goods and bads thrown in.
- Georgia, 18-12.
The Good Side: Won two of three vs. Florida State.
The Bad Side: Swept at Georgia Southern and at home by Missouri
- Alabama, 15-12
The Good Side: Mississippi State two of three in Starkville
The Bad Side: Lost series at home vs. Texas A&M and at Florida
- Tennessee, 12-13
The Good Side: Beat Florida and Vanderbilt in games on the road.
The Bad Side: Only series win in March was vs. Grand Canyon, was swept at Georgia.
- Kentucky, 18-11
The Good Side: Made headlines by winning two of three at LSU.
The Bad Side: Swept at South Carolina in three straight by a combined 20-8
- Missouri, 20-10
The Good Side: Swept Georgia in Athens, then won two of three vs. South Carolina.
The Bad Side: Lost all three at home vs. someone named "Milwaukee."
- Auburn, 18-11
The Good Side: Beat Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State in February.
The Bad Side: Beaten in three games by combined 22-7 at Texas A&M.
- Mississippi State, 19-12
The Good Side: Swept what looks to be a pretty good Arizona team in two games.
The Bad Side: Lost every other series in March vs. San Diego, Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn.
9- Up until Tuesday, the Missouri Valley was the best conference
At the beginning of the week - if you believe the RPI - the MVC was the best top-heavy conference in the country. You had Dallas Baptist at No. 1, where it still is. Then, you had No. 13 Missouri State, which it still is. But at No. 14 was Bradley. Yes, wipe your eyes if you must, but that's three of the top 14 in the RPI. Only the SEC could also have made that claim. But lo and behold a midweek loss to St. Louis made the Braves' RPI plummet down to No. 28. Gah, a double-dip drop.
10- The Oregon schools might be in trouble
Everyone knew the Oregon State Beavers were going to be in a little bit of a "rebuilding" mode this season. But they've still managed to race out to a 21-7 record. Not bad, right? Well it's also not so good either since their RPI is way down at No. 72 entering this weekend. Oregon is in even worse shape. Despite challenging themselves with road trips to Hawaii, UC Santa Barbara and UC Riverside, they are now 18-12 overall and sit at No. 93 in the RPI, thanks to a 1-5 record in games vs. Arizona and Arizona State. Oregon State showed hope for regrouping by taking the series opener at UCLA.
11- Home runs are up. Scoring and ERA? Notsomuch
Just as we suspected back at the end of February, March proved further that the home run is back in college baseball. According to their midseason stats, the NCAA figures show that the home runs per game has gone from 0.36 in 2014 to 0.50 in 2015, an increase of 39 percent from last year. But oddly, scoring in college baseball is not up significantly, showing an increase of just about 5 percent from this time last year. And even more curious, the number of strikeouts has jumped up significantly from a year ago, moving up 10.5%.
Here is a fancy-smancy graphic that displays it all:
midseason-bsb-trends
12- March added these coaches to the Most Wanted list:
Sorry fans of the mid-major teams having solid seasons so far, if this month proved anything it is that your coach is going to be hot property on the shopping block at the end of the season. Here are those who could be on their way:
- Dan Heefner, Dallas Baptist.
Hard to believe he hasn't been snapped up already with all his success at the small religious school in southwest Dallas.
- John McCormack, Florida Atlantic
The Owls have never been bad under Big John, but this guy has to strike while the iron is hot. Right now, FAU is 23-5 and No. 7 in the RPI. If this keeps up, some big-money program will come calling.
- Darin Erstad, Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have made a steady climb under their former All-American outfielder and punter. Last week's suffocating sweep of Texas means this year appears to be a breakthrough season. Wonder if he'd ever leave his alma mater though?
- Terry Rooney, UCF.
I love Roons. I love him at the helm of the Knights. But this is the state of Florida we're talking about, so somebody will come calling for this guy soon, especially given the type of month they've had here in March, which included last weekend's series win over Houston.
- Andrew Checketts, UC Santa Barbara
He hasn't been to the NCAA tournament yet, but this past month proved that this snub is about to end. The Gauchos are 20-7 and No. 12 in the D1 rankings. This is his breakthrough performance, people.
- Jim Penders, Connecticut
Talk about a team that has heated up - literally. The Huskies went 14-5 in the month of March, including series wins at Florida International, Seton Hall and Tulane. And to think, they just recently cleared the snow off their field in Storrs. Yay, the Huskies finally get to practice!
- Monte Lee, College of Charleston
Oh come on, this is no big surprise. This guy has been on the rolling rumor log for a long time now. After a 10-5 start, the Cougars have now won eight of nine, scoring 87 runs in those eight wins.
Five Places To Be This Weekend
Lots of good candidates for the top fives slots this weekend, but we can't take everyone. So here are the best of the best. The sure bets you won't be disappointed. Couple of notes here first, these records and rankings were taken before any Thursday games were played. And secondly, even though I hate the RPI, I have to use their numbers below because that's what the selection committee uses. So here we go
5- No. 9 Southern California at No. 25 Arizona
Hi Corbett Stadium, Tuscon
By the Numbers:
USC: 22-6, 4-2 Pac 12, No. 33 RPI, No. 143 SOS
UofA: 22-6, 7-2 Pac 12, No. 96 RPI, No. 224 SOS
It's weird to see Arizona come off of a pair of sweeps vs. Stanford and Oregon, but its RPI is still way down in the 90s. Here's a chance to make up some ground, while both teams are hoping to keep pace with first place UCLA, who is 8-1.
4- No. 19 Dallas Baptist at Missouri State
Hammond Field, Springfield
By the Numbers:
DBU: 23-3, 5-1 MVC. No. 1 RPI, No. 19 SOS
MSU: 18-7, 2-1 MVC, No. 13 RPI, No. 50 SOS
Yeah, I know, what the devil are we doing with a Missouri Valley Conference series in the top five. But take one glance at the two RPI's here and you see how important this weekend is for both. Patriot relievers Brandon Koch and Gavin Fritz have yet to give up an earned run in 26.1 combined innings.
3- No. 24 Texas at No. 20 Oklahoma State
Allie Reynolds Stadium, Stillwater
By the Numbers:
UT: 17-12, 5-1 Big 12, No. 58 RPI, No. 44 SOS
OSU: 19-9, 4-2 Big 12, No. 11 RPI, No. 14 SOS
Despite their occasional foibles and that awful performance at Nebraska last weekend, you've gotta give it to the Longhorns, they lead the Big 12. Okie State comes in with a 2.61 team ERA, so the Horns bats will have another huge challenge ahead of them.
2- No. 18 Nebraska at No. 17 Maryland
Shipley Field, College Park
By the Numbers:
UNL: 23-7, 3-0 Big 10, No. 14 RPI, No. 57 SOS
UMd: 19-7, 4-2 Big 10, No. 49 RPI, No. 163 SOS
As Aaron Fitt pointed out earlier this week, this one could have huge home regional hosting ramifications. Yes, it's a little early to think about that right now, but you have to wonder if that will have an impact come late May.
1- No. 7 Louisville at No. 12 Virginia
Davenport Field, Charlottesville
By the Numbers:
UofL: 22-7, 11-1 ACC, No. 21 RPI, No. 59 SOS
UVa: 19-9, 6-6 ACC, No. 47 RPI, No. 105 SOS
Great matchup of razor sharp pitching as the Cards come in with a 2.61 team ERA with 299 strikeouts, both ACC-bests. The Cavs arms are never anything to sneeze at with a 3.10 ERA, led by Nathan Kirby's 4-1, 1.01, which also leads the loop.
If you want to see the video version of my Top Five Places to Be, here you go
Click your mouse here.
FIVE OTHERS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON:
If you've got the company LearJet at your disposal, visit these sites too. It'll be totally worth your while:
- No. 2 Texas A&M at Kentucky.
Will the Aggies play like a top five team or will the Wildcats continue their won't-be-denied streak of late? This will be fun.
- Oregon State at No. 7 UCLA.
The Bruins are No. 5 in the RPI and OSU is No. 74. Plus the Beavers have a strength of schedule that is No. 182, so you know this will help OSU
if they win.
- No. 4 TCU at Texas Tech.
There may not be a tougher venue in the country than Dan Law Field. This is also Tech's chance to get back into the rankings after their recent 2-5 skid.
- No. 21 South Carolina at Mississippi State.
Alright, one of these teams has to hit the alarm clock this weekend in StarkVegas. They are both too talented to have their RPIs wallowing in the low-50s for the Cocks and in the triple digits for the Dogs in the RPI respectively.
- No. 11 Florida State at North Carolina State
Okay Seminoles, here is your chance to prove once again that you can win some tough road games. The Wolfpack are quietly sneaking up the rankings, sitting at No. 68 in the RPI coming into this vital weekend.
Tweet Of The Week
How cool is this? I saw this from UCF's series-deciding win over Houston back on Sunday. This brings me back to old school Nintendo All Stars Baseball back in the late-80s when video games were still in their infancy. Using the Baseball Stars-like graphic to describe the action in the real-life game is cunning, funny and nostalgic at the same time. This. Is. A. Beauty.
The best graphic I've ever seen to display an HBP. Well done UCF.
The best graphic I've ever seen to display an HBP. Well done UCF.
.
AND NOW, THE KEITH LAW QUESTION.
As you guys might've seen on my College Baseball Today website, I went to a "Pitching and Performance" symposium on Tuesday night out at USC. Dr. Tom House, the former USC pitching coach and major league pitcher led a group of four experts in the field of pitching and pitching analysis in an open discussion on the goods and bads of pitching on young arms from little league up to the college ranks.
After the symposium was over, I cornered Dr. Seth Gamradt, an orthopedic surgeon and expert in the field of pitching and Tommy John surgeries. I asked him to give his opinion on all the brush-up we always hear come regionals and super regionals time: Does using a college pitcher on short rest twice in a weekend jeopardize his future pitching career in any way?
Dr. Gamradt's answer:
"I doubt it. I strongly doubt it. I don't think one episode where a pitcher comes back on short rest to pitch again in a championship is a deal-breaker for any career hopes. But the coaches have to be smart. They have to know the background and have the recovery methods for each player. And you also have to have realistic expectations, these kids are elite athletes and get proper training and as long as they're not doing it all the time it's no problem. Obviously, if there is a history of arm trouble or if the kid is dealing with pain then you don't do that. But a healthy, well-conditioned college pitcher should have no long term problems involved in a situation like that."
Where I'll Be This Weekend
My plans are to fly into Oklahoma City, get a rent-a-lemon and hit the road for:
- Thursday, Kansas at Oklahoma
- Friday, Dallas Baptist at Missouri State
- Saturday, Texas at Oklahoma State
And if my flight plans and extended "layover" plan works out
- Sunday, Middle Tennessee State at Rice
Then I'll fly home to Smogland.
One Quick Story: Missouri State and Virginia's Brian O'Connor
Back in the 90s, I was living in Dallas. A friend of mine was headed to Springfield, Mo., for a buddy of his who was getting married. I didn't know the groom all that well, but I did notice that the wedding weekend was in conjunction with Creighton playing a three-game set at Southwest Missouri State - as it was known back then. Me being the unapologetic Bluejay fan that I am, I asked if it'd be cool if I hitched a ride along with him to the wedding.
Well, we got there Saturday afternoon just in time to for the first pitch at Meador Park, a public park where the Bears used to play before Hammond Field came around. Creighton's starting pitcher that day was future Virginia head coach Brian O'Connor. He pitched well and went seven innings before being pulled with the Bluejays leading 8-2.
So me and my buddies are standing along the fence line right next to the CU dugout and we can see into the dugout and hear all the things the players are saying. There was a lot of jawing between the Jays and Bears that day. The Creighton players were saying "listen to those hicks yell at us."
Well, when O'Connor got off the mound, he immediately took his jersey off, showing a Harley Davidson t-shirt he was wearing underneath. O'Connor then grabbed a bat and held it like a guitar, sat down by himself on the bench and started emulating the "Dueling Banjos" song from the movie Deliverance, apparently in a prodding manner toward the SMSU players. We snickered like school boys in church at this vagabond behavior from the starting pitcher. And of course, this was in the day and age before cell phones and picture-taking gone amuck, so there remains no visual proof of what we saw that day.
But years later, I get an Email from that same buddy of mine saying, "Hey, I just saw that a former Creighton pitcher got the head coaching job at Virginia. Isn't that the guy who played 'Dueling Banjos' on the bench while wearing a Harley shirt?"
Yep. Yep it was.
Just for the hell of it I may have to make a quick trip by Meador Park and see the scene of the crime while I'm there in Springfield.
D1 - Sorenson: Off The Top Of My Head