ESPN Power Index Shorts Husker 2017 stock

[inWV]

A bit sobering if one is high on simulation based predictions
Here are the predicted losses and associated "probabilities" (and my comments)
Oregon 14.4% - away game, so I can see less than a coin flip, but we beat them last year and they are breaking in a new coach
Wisconsin 17.4% - at home, last two games have come down to the end, BS probability. Coin flip game like last two
Ohio State 5.0% - probably a loss, but it is a home game. 5% is too low.
Northwestern 37.2% - another home game, we are better than a coin flip here.
Minnesota 40.6% - away game, but we have won the last two and they have a new coach
Penn State 7.3% - away game, but too low
Iowa 42.9% - home game, new QB for Iowa, we are better than a coin flip here.

Four losses is the most likely scenario, unless our QB production fails to match Tommy.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017

 

[otismotis08]

Until we prove it, we deserve it.

 

[inWV]

Until we prove it, we deserve it.

I am not sure we deserve a win probability of 17% both at Oregon, even as an away game and Wisky at home. Nor do I think we are but a 37% probability of beating Northwestern at home.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

ESPN has become a social activist network and a branch of the SEC. As such, they ceased being a credible sport's news network a long time ago. They are losing viewers by the millions over the past five years and are getting desperate.

I never take seriously anything like this anymore that requires real, honest, objective assessment. Everything they do in this genre is geared toward ratings, as they pander to their favored demographics

 

[big red22]

Until we prove it, we deserve it.

We deserve a FPI rank of 58? Ummmm nope sorry

Edit: We haven't been that low even at the end of the year since before Devaney except maybe Callahan's first and last year. I know we will not be NC contenders, but to say this team will be as bad as those teams is ridiculous!

 

[inWV]

If Diaco's scheme can limit the damage that Iowa and Wisconsin's runs games can do, we should be favored in those games. And 17% against Oregon?

4000 posts in right here

 

[headcard]

NW and Minny jump out at me as ridiculous. We should be comfortable favorites in both.

 

[Harry Caray]

A bit sobering if one is high on simulation based predictions
Here are the predicted losses and associated "probabilities" (and my comments)
Oregon 14.4% - away game, so I can see less than a coin flip, but we beat them last year and they are breaking in a new coach
Wisconsin 17.4% - at home, last two games have come down to the end, BS probability. Coin flip game like last two
Ohio State 5.0% - probably a loss, but it is a home game. 5% is too low.
Northwestern 37.2% - another home game, we are better than a coin flip here.
Minnesota 40.6% - away game, but we have won the last two and they have a new coach
Penn State 7.3% - away game, but too low
Iowa 42.9% - home game, new QB for Iowa, we are better than a coin flip here.

Four losses is the most likely scenario, unless our QB production fails to match Tommy.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017

Remember we too will have a new QB and new defensive scheme, we lost a fair amount of talent, and we did not play well at the end of last season. Some of the percentages do seem low, and I'd be surprised if we lost to both Minnesota and Northwestern, but we will likely not be favored to win any of the other 5 games.

 

[c3ntral08]

This is comical. 17% chance vs Wisky at home and NW 37% are absolutely absurd. So they're saying Wisky will come into Lincoln -14 and NW -6 basically lol. I promise those we'll be favored in both those games when the initial lines come out this summer.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

The way we played/finished the last two seasons, this doesn't sound that outrageous to me. But for arguments sake say #58 is outragous, and we should be say....#35, big freaking whoop. Now do I think we'll end up #58? Hell no. But we've kinda sucked when the lights are on the last couple of years and we have some new coaches, new defensive system, a new QB that has yet to win anywhere, and we're still being coached by Mr. 500 (I still love the hire, but it's time to start getting it done). FYI, I think we crack the top 25 to end the year, say #24(ish), 8-4 for the regular season would be my best guess. I hope I'm way off and we out perform. Bottom line, I don't expect the "experts" to be that enthralled with us, and I get why.

 

[otismotis08]

The way we played/finished the last two seasons, this doesn't sound that outrageous to me. But for arguments sake say #58 is outragous, and we should be say....#35, big freaking whoop. Now do I think we'll end up #58? Hell no. But we've kinda sucked when the lights are on the last couple of years and we have some new coaches, new defensive system, a new QB that has yet to win anywhere, and we're still being coached by Mr. 500 (I still love the hire, but it's time to start getting it done). FYI, I think we crack the top 25 to end the year, say #24(ish), 8-4 for the regular season would be my best guess. I hope I'm way off and we out perform. Bottom line, I don't expect the "experts" to be that enthralled with us, and I get why.

Spot on.

 

[TruHusker]

It is the same old story - we will beat Sisters of the poor because we always beat them. Never mind they are now better and we have proven nothing. This teams needs to finds its way very early and build some momentum. We may get away with some things early as opposing teams digest what we are doing and where our weaknesses are. It then turns to the cat and mouse game of covering your weaknesses the best you can so they are not over exposed. We saw that last year, stop our run and we were an easy target. I agree with others, we have proven nothing and until we show the results on the field, this is what we are going to get - regardless of what our hearts say.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

The way we played/finished the last two seasons, this doesn't sound that outrageous to me. But for arguments sake say #58 is outragous, and we should be say....#35, big freaking whoop. Now do I think we'll end up #58? Hell no. But we've kinda sucked when the lights are on the last couple of years and we have some new coaches, new defensive system, a new QB that has yet to win anywhere, and we're still being coached by Mr. 500 (I still love the hire, but it's time to start getting it done). FYI, I think we crack the top 25 to end the year, say #24(ish), 8-4 for the regular season would be my best guess. I hope I'm way off and we out perform. Bottom line, I don't expect the "experts" to be that enthralled with us, and I get why.

Nobody is saying they should be "enthralled" with us. That is a straw man position nobody on here has articulated.
What is stupid about this rating, for example, is the Northwestern game. Had we not fumbled on the goal line twice in the first half, we would have beaten them going away at their place last year. So now we are to believe that will be an underdog to them or a toss up next year in Lincoln?? Why? And Minnesota?? Once again... a team we beat last year who has a new coach. And why are we such big dogs against Wisky at home? We took them to overtime at their place last year, and to the wire in Lincoln the year before.
I am not asking them to be "enthralled" with us. Just objective. Which this isn't.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

I never have trusted "simulations" based predictions, and I would say the same thing if it predicted us to do well. I don't think any of the human-based predictions are going to be extremely high on us, but I can guarantee they will not be this low on us either. The percentages for some of these games are just downright ridiculous and nonsensical and don't at all reflect what the line will be on the games. Fortunately, some stupid "simulation" doesn't determine how our season goes.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

That index is based on math, yardage, averages and probabilities etc. it's not opinion based.

However, the scary part is that it has been within 1 game of Nebraska's actual win total the last few years. So it can be accurate.

 

[otismotis08]

That index is based on math, yardage, averages and probabilities etc. it's not opinion based.

However, the scary part is that it has been within 1 game of Nebraska's actual win total the last few years. So it can be accurate.

Exactly. We need to prove it to be wrong by exceeding expectations.

 

[headcard]

The way we played/finished the last two seasons, this doesn't sound that outrageous to me. But for arguments sake say #58 is outragous, and we should be say....#35, big freaking whoop. Now do I think we'll end up #58? Hell no. But we've kinda sucked when the lights are on the last couple of years and we have some new coaches, new defensive system, a new QB that has yet to win anywhere, and we're still being coached by Mr. 500 (I still love the hire, but it's time to start getting it done). FYI, I think we crack the top 25 to end the year, say #24(ish), 8-4 for the regular season would be my best guess. I hope I'm way off and we out perform. Bottom line, I don't expect the "experts" to be that enthralled with us, and I get why.

I think it's been more than a couple years.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Nobody is saying they should be "enthralled" with us. That is a straw man position nobody on here has articulated.
What is stupid about this rating, for example, is the Northwestern game. Had we not fumbled on the goal line twice in the first half, we would have beaten them going away at their place last year. So now we are to believe that will be an underdog to them or a toss up next year in Lincoln?? Why? And Minnesota?? Once again... a team we beat last year who has a new coach. And why are we such big dogs against Wisky at home? We took them to overtime at their place last year, and to the wire in Lincoln the year before.
I am not asking them to be "enthralled" with us. Just objective. Which this isn't.

Would it make you feel better if I removed the word enthralled, and inserted impressed, or whatever? You tell me. I think you knew exactly what I meant, and i think I'm dead on balls accurate (My Cousin Vinny blast) Seems like you're splitting hairs here to me.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

I think it's been more than a couple years.

Couple years, 15, what's the difference?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

With all that said, I think the index this year is flawed a bit. I don't know the exact formula used but i could see the 2017 defense and the 2016 defense being polar opposites. 2016 gave up too many big plays, which had a significant effect on the Yards per play average. I think 2017 will be markedly better in reducing big plays. Along those lines, I think the offense will have a higher completion pct, allowing for more big plays, which will increase the average yards per play for the offense. I know that is just one variable but there will be others.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

That index is based on math, yardage, averages and probabilities etc. it's not opinion based.

However, the scary part is that it has been within 1 game of Nebraska's actual win total the last few years. So it can be accurate.

It's also been way off on some teams. Maybe not us, but just because it's been close on us the last few years doesn't mean they can't be way off on us this time(and I think they will be). I said I don't trust "simulations" based predictions and another thing I don't trust is rating preseason predictions by accuracy in previous years. I compare it to something else I follow closely-accuracy by political pollsters. In the last 15 years, there have been a couple of pollsters who were once considered the gold standard in political polling because they were the most accurate in one election. Then the next election they missed on a bunch of polls and fell to the bottom of the pile. Previous accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy(and neither does previous inaccuracy guarantee future inaccuracy).

 

[huskerfan1414]

ESPN has become a social activist network and a branch of the SEC. As such, they ceased being a credible sport's news network a long time ago. They are losing viewers by the millions over the past five years and are getting desperate.

I never take seriously anything like this anymore that requires real, honest, objective assessment. Everything they do in this genre is geared toward ratings, as they pander to their favored demographics

Yes.
Its amazing how much espn used to dominate my sports entertainment life in the past compared to how little i use espn channels and websites now. Only watch for televised games and ive gone from checking espn.com at least once every day to never. Espn is never on my tv, i re watch 30 for 30s i wanna see on other channels.
They came out recently and said they are officially a political sports enterprise...so they wont be getting me back. F espn.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

Would it make you feel better if I removed the word enthralled, and inserted impressed, or whatever? You tell me. I think you knew exactly what I meant, and i think I'm dead on balls accurate (My Cousin Vinny blast) Seems like you're splitting hairs here to me.

And I think you know what I meant, which you still did not address. Any metric that has us as underdogs this year to Minny and Northwestern is flawed.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

And I think you know what I meant, which you still did not address. Any metric that has us as underdogs this year to Minny and Northwestern is flawed.

Both those schools have held their own against us. I don't find it that hard to believe that the national media doesn't consider those games locks for us.

 

[redlurker]

Computers don't play football!

 

[inWV]

Both those schools have held their own against us. I don't find it that hard to believe that the national media doesn't consider those games locks for us.

There's a difference between being a lock and having about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Northwestern at home, and less than a 1 in 5 chance of beating Wisconsin at home.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

There's a difference between being a lock and having about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Northwestern at home, and less than a 1 in 5 chance of beating Wisconsin at home.

Wisky odds sound about right to me.

 

[Bugeater]

Well, Nebraska can help themselves by winning. I don't put any stock into preseason this or that. What we see after 12 games this season will either be satisfactory or disappointing. Time will tell.

 

[Truehuskerfan]

Both those schools have held their own against us. I don't find it that hard to believe that the national media doesn't consider those games locks for us.

We're 4-2 against both teams. Minnesota has a new coach and a new QB. Northwestern is a team that we beat fairly easily last year and should have beaten by more if we hadn't made unforced errors. And also, this isn't "the national media"-this is a numbers-based predictor that just happens to be associated with ESPN. There is nobody's opinion involved here at all.

 

[chicolby]

ESPN has become a social activist network and a branch of the SEC. As such, they ceased being a credible sport's news network a long time ago. They are losing viewers by the millions over the past five years and are getting desperate.

I never take seriously anything like this anymore that requires real, honest, objective assessment. Everything they do in this genre is geared toward ratings, as they pander to their favored demographics

How can they be socialist and an activst network for the SEC? Isn't that a contradiction? If they were socialist, they'd say every conference should be treated equally. I'm lost.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

Both those schools have held their own against us. I don't find it that hard to believe that the national media doesn't consider those games locks for us.

I don't believe I said we were a lock to beat them. I just don't think we should be underdogs against them. I am questioning the legitimacy of a metric that would list us as underdogs against those two teams.

Guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

How can they be socialist and an activst network for the SEC? Isn't that a contradiction? If they were socialist, they'd say every conference should be treated equally. I'm lost.

Where did I say they were socialists? I said they have become "social activists". Difference.

And how can they be social activists and still be in bed with the Bible Belt SEC? Simple. Money. Lots of people in the corporate and sports world throw their principles under the bus when big, big sums of money are at stake.

 

[Toms Wife]

Those socialist snowflakes are wrong. Their metrics did not include "Bobo is one more year removed from the program." 11-1 baby!

 

[Pennsyhusker]

Those socialist snowflakes are wrong. Their metrics did not include "Bobo is one more year removed from the program." 11-1 baby!

I say 10-2, with losses to OSU and PSU. For the first time in ages, I predict we will not lose to a team we should not lose to.

 

[scarletred]

Anything can happen in Eugene just because they have a new Head Coach and staff we also have new defensive coordinator and asst coach's 50/50.

Wisconsin and Iowa are the most important games to win if we're going too play for a conference championship.

Ohio St and Penn St are likely losses we have a better shot against tOSU mainly because it's a home game.

Northwestern and Minnesota are both games the team can't over look especially Northwestern AT home from what history has told us from the past.

 

[scarletred]

I say 10-2, with losses to OSU and PSU. For the first time in ages, I predict we will not lose to a team we should not lose to.

That would give us a 9-3 record.

 

[cubsker]

their predictors are dogshit.

 

[Bill_Callahan2.0]

Book me down for 9-4, por favor.

 

[Cisco Red]

I doubt many of the metric based projections are going to be high on us. Per Phil Steele's blog, Nebraska is tied for 114th nationally in returning starters going into Spring. That's dead last in the Big Ten West. Oregon is breaking in a new staff but they are 3rd nationally in returning starters. Northwestern is very high also. Wisconsin is pretty high too.

 

[Suhrreal]

With a couple of injuries in the right spots, I could see us being a 6 win team. I think our ceiling is pretty high though.