"don’t touch it."
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Apparently the rivals staff didn't appreciate the 247 link and deleted it.
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How to bet on teams with a new starting QB in Week 1
These 10 games have one thing in common: a new starting quarterback taking snaps for at least one of the teams. Here is a look at how to bet these Week 1 contests.
Some like to say if you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have a chance.
But there are plenty of teams in college football with great players at most positions, but uncertainty at quarterback. The defending national champs are breaking in a new one. Auburn, Nebraska, Baylor and West Virginia are among the teams with players who transferred taking the snaps to start out the year. Notre Dame and Cal are starting third-year players behind center while Virginia Tech named a redshirt freshman to start at quarterback. Tennessee and North Carolina have yet to officially name new starters.
Here are 10 games featuring new starting quarterbacks and how to bet on them, according to both individual advanced metrics like EPA (Expected Points Added) and the team ratings produced by the preseason model that uses them to project the outcome of every game this season.
Virginia Tech (-4) at West Virginia
Jerod Evans put up 126.82 pass EPA last year, the 14th-most in the country, while also running for a team-high 846 yards and 12 touchdowns. He will be tough to replace, with redshirt freshman Josh Jackson named the starter. West Virginia, on the other hand, turned to a transfer in former Florida quarterback Will Grier. He won each of his six starts for Florida in 2015 before being suspended for the rest of the year but will try to pick up where he left off in Morgantown. The Hokies are four-point favorites but the preseason model has them winning by 11.3. Virginia Tech brings back seven starters from a defense that allowed just 0.05 adjusted EPA per pass, the 10th-fewest in the country, including three in the secondary. Look for Grier to have a tough time in his Mountaineers debut.
Smart Call: Bet on Virginia Tech to cover.
Clemson (-40) vs. Kent State
The Deshaun Watson era is over in Clemson as he led the Tigers to a pair of national title games and conference championships, capping off a sensational career with a thrilling victory over Alabama in last year’s national championship game. Kelly Bryant backed him up for two years and beat out Hunter Johnson and Zerrick Cooper to win the starting quarterback job. Bryant has run the ball about twice as often (35 carries) as he’s thrown it (18 passes) the last two years. Clemson is a 40-point favorite in its opener against Kent State, who ranked No. 64 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed (0.18). The Tigers lose three of their top four pass-catchers from a year ago but still have an immensely talented receiving corps. The preseason model has Clemson winning by 36.5. Look for the Tigers to blow out the Golden Flashes but not cover.
Smart Call: Bet on Kent State to cover.
Tennessee (-3) vs. Georgia Tech
Neither team has named a starting quarterback with their season opener against each other now just five days away. While the Vols are choosing between Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano, the Yellow Jackets listed four players as potential starters behind center on the depth chart they released this week. Dormady backed up Joshua Dobbs for two years while Guarantano is a four-star prospect from the 2016 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. The Vols are three-point favorites, with the preseason model calling for them to beat Georgia Tech by a single point. That’s close enough, while also considering neither team has named a starter, to stay away.
Smart Call: With QB uncertainty, don’t touch it.
North Carolina (-11) vs. Cal
North Carolina has also not named a starter, although LSU transfer Brandon Harris is the favorite. After Davis Webb’s departure, Ross Bowers steps in as Cal’s quarterback and has big shoes to fill. Davis Webb racked up 112.64 pass EPA last year, the 24th-most in the country. Bowers has yet to throw a pass while Harris threw 347 for LSU over the previous three seasons. He had 2.26 pass EPA, averaging 0.09 EPA per pass, in limited action for the Tigers last year. The Tar Heels are 11-point favorites, which is right around where the preseason model has this game projected (UNC by 11.3). Harris’ experience could push North Carolina over the top here, but because the projection is so close to the point spread, one might want to hold off here.
Smart Call: Projection too close to spread, don’t touch it.
Western Michigan (+27) at USC
The Broncos lose their all-time leading passer in Zach Terrell, who passed for more than 12,000 yards during his college career. Over the last three years, he completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per pass, finishing off his time at Western Michigan by posting a pristine 33-4 TD-INT ratio last year. Sophomore Jon Wassink takes over and does so without the team’s three leading receivers from a year ago, including this year’s No. 5 overall pick, Corey Davis. The Broncos do bring back big-time running backs Jarvion Franklin and Jamari Bogan, who combined for 2,276 yards and 20 touchdowns last year and 5,613 yards and 65 touchdowns in their careers. The Trojans were No. 48 in adjusted pass EPA allowed last year (No. 48) but have one of the most talented secondaries in the country. The preseason model is calling for a lopsided USC win but by 17.7 points, not the 27 the point spread indicates.
Smart Call: Bet on Western Michigan to cover.
Nebraska (-16.5) vs. Arkansas State
Transfer Tanner Lee takes over Tommy Armstrong, Jr. as the Cornhuskers’ starting quarterback after throwing for 3,601 yards and posting a 23-21 TD-INT ratio in two years for Tulane. Arkansas State had a solid pass defense last year, checking in at No. 36 for the 0.12 adjusted EPA per pass it allowed last year. Nebraska is a 16.5-point favorite, with the preseason model calling for a 15.1-point Cornhuskers win. This one might be too close to pull the trigger on.
Smart Call: Projection too close to spread, don’t touch it.
Colorado (-5) vs. Colorado State
Sefo Liufau leaves Colorado as its all-time leading passer, capping off his Buffaloes career with a sensational senior season that saw him lead them to the Pac-12 title game and its first 10-win season in 15 years despite being picked to finish last in the division. Steven Montez did get some experience last year while Liufau was injured, putting up 23.85 pass EPA and even averaging more EPA per pass (0.18) than Liufau did (0.14) last season. Colorado brings back Phillip Lindsay at running back, as well as its top nine pass-catchers from a year ago. Colorado State is a solid team in its own right, checking in at No. 55 in the preseason model with a 15.85 rating and is one of the contenders in the Mountain West. Despite trailing in the middle of the second quarter of its season opener last weekend against Oregon State, the Rams went on to win, 57-28, scoring 44 points over the game’s final 39 minutes. Their offense will be tough to keep up with but they were just No. 82 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed last year (0.22). The preseason model is calling for Colorado to win by 7.6 and, as efficient as Montez was last year, along with the returning production around him on offense, the Buffaloes could be a smart bet this week.
Smart Call: Bet on Colorado to cover.
Notre Dame (-17.5) vs. Temple
DeShone Kizer is off to the NFL, recently named the Browns’ starting quarterback and Malik Zaire is in Gainesville, where Florida has yet to name its starter. Notre Dame is putting junior Brandon Wimbush behind center. He’s only thrown five passes in his career but is talented. Wimbush was the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback prospect in the country, according to the 247Sports Composite, and the No. 46 overall prospect. Josh Adams will return to join him in the backfield, as will six of the Fighting Irish’s leading receivers from this past season and four returning starters on the offensive line. But Temple had one of the country’s best defenses last year, allowing only 18.4 points per game (No. 11 in the nation) and 0.09 adjusted EPA per pass (No. 24). The Owls lose their head coach as Matt Rhule is now at Baylor but bring back three starters in the secondary. That’s one of the reasons why the preseason model is calling for Notre Dame to win, but by only 8.3 points.
Smart Call: Bet on Temple to cover.
Auburn (-34.5) vs. Georgia Southern
Jarrett Stidham was incredibly efficient during his short stint as Baylor’s starter two years ago. He was named the starter over incumbent Sean White and could make the Tigers’ offense, which ran the ball close to 70% of the time last year, more balanced in 2017. His 0.68 adjusted EPA per pass was the best in the country in 2015. Georgia Southern ranked No. 41 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed (0.14) last year and Auburn is projected to win this one by 25.1, nearly 10 fewer than Vegas is calling for. Stidham should have a great year and Auburn should have an explosive offense this season, but don’t look for a 30-plus-point blowout in its opener.
Smart Call: Bet on Georgia Southern to cover.
Baylor (-30) vs. Liberty
Zach Smith filled in for Seth Russell after he suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Oklahoma, starting the last four games. He lost three in a row before leading Baylor to an upset win over Boise State in the Cactus Bowl. He racked up 41.90 pass EPA last year and averaged an impressive 0.22 EPA per pass, nearly matching Russell’s 0.25 mark. But it was Arizona graduate transfer Anu Solomon who won the job after a productive but up-and-down three years with the Wildcats. He completed nearly 60% of his passes there while throwing for more than three times as many touchdowns (49) as interceptions. Baylor is a 30-point favorite in its opener against Liberty, but the preseason model has the Bears winning by closer to 40 (39.9).
Smart Call: Bet on Baylor to cover.
Edit...
Apparently the rivals staff didn't appreciate the 247 link and deleted it.
Ok...copy and paste as to not mention the offending website:
How to bet on teams with a new starting QB in Week 1
These 10 games have one thing in common: a new starting quarterback taking snaps for at least one of the teams. Here is a look at how to bet these Week 1 contests.
Some like to say if you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have a chance.
But there are plenty of teams in college football with great players at most positions, but uncertainty at quarterback. The defending national champs are breaking in a new one. Auburn, Nebraska, Baylor and West Virginia are among the teams with players who transferred taking the snaps to start out the year. Notre Dame and Cal are starting third-year players behind center while Virginia Tech named a redshirt freshman to start at quarterback. Tennessee and North Carolina have yet to officially name new starters.
Here are 10 games featuring new starting quarterbacks and how to bet on them, according to both individual advanced metrics like EPA (Expected Points Added) and the team ratings produced by the preseason model that uses them to project the outcome of every game this season.
Virginia Tech (-4) at West Virginia
Jerod Evans put up 126.82 pass EPA last year, the 14th-most in the country, while also running for a team-high 846 yards and 12 touchdowns. He will be tough to replace, with redshirt freshman Josh Jackson named the starter. West Virginia, on the other hand, turned to a transfer in former Florida quarterback Will Grier. He won each of his six starts for Florida in 2015 before being suspended for the rest of the year but will try to pick up where he left off in Morgantown. The Hokies are four-point favorites but the preseason model has them winning by 11.3. Virginia Tech brings back seven starters from a defense that allowed just 0.05 adjusted EPA per pass, the 10th-fewest in the country, including three in the secondary. Look for Grier to have a tough time in his Mountaineers debut.
Smart Call: Bet on Virginia Tech to cover.
Clemson (-40) vs. Kent State
The Deshaun Watson era is over in Clemson as he led the Tigers to a pair of national title games and conference championships, capping off a sensational career with a thrilling victory over Alabama in last year’s national championship game. Kelly Bryant backed him up for two years and beat out Hunter Johnson and Zerrick Cooper to win the starting quarterback job. Bryant has run the ball about twice as often (35 carries) as he’s thrown it (18 passes) the last two years. Clemson is a 40-point favorite in its opener against Kent State, who ranked No. 64 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed (0.18). The Tigers lose three of their top four pass-catchers from a year ago but still have an immensely talented receiving corps. The preseason model has Clemson winning by 36.5. Look for the Tigers to blow out the Golden Flashes but not cover.
Smart Call: Bet on Kent State to cover.
Tennessee (-3) vs. Georgia Tech
Neither team has named a starting quarterback with their season opener against each other now just five days away. While the Vols are choosing between Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano, the Yellow Jackets listed four players as potential starters behind center on the depth chart they released this week. Dormady backed up Joshua Dobbs for two years while Guarantano is a four-star prospect from the 2016 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. The Vols are three-point favorites, with the preseason model calling for them to beat Georgia Tech by a single point. That’s close enough, while also considering neither team has named a starter, to stay away.
Smart Call: With QB uncertainty, don’t touch it.
North Carolina (-11) vs. Cal
North Carolina has also not named a starter, although LSU transfer Brandon Harris is the favorite. After Davis Webb’s departure, Ross Bowers steps in as Cal’s quarterback and has big shoes to fill. Davis Webb racked up 112.64 pass EPA last year, the 24th-most in the country. Bowers has yet to throw a pass while Harris threw 347 for LSU over the previous three seasons. He had 2.26 pass EPA, averaging 0.09 EPA per pass, in limited action for the Tigers last year. The Tar Heels are 11-point favorites, which is right around where the preseason model has this game projected (UNC by 11.3). Harris’ experience could push North Carolina over the top here, but because the projection is so close to the point spread, one might want to hold off here.
Smart Call: Projection too close to spread, don’t touch it.
Western Michigan (+27) at USC
The Broncos lose their all-time leading passer in Zach Terrell, who passed for more than 12,000 yards during his college career. Over the last three years, he completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per pass, finishing off his time at Western Michigan by posting a pristine 33-4 TD-INT ratio last year. Sophomore Jon Wassink takes over and does so without the team’s three leading receivers from a year ago, including this year’s No. 5 overall pick, Corey Davis. The Broncos do bring back big-time running backs Jarvion Franklin and Jamari Bogan, who combined for 2,276 yards and 20 touchdowns last year and 5,613 yards and 65 touchdowns in their careers. The Trojans were No. 48 in adjusted pass EPA allowed last year (No. 48) but have one of the most talented secondaries in the country. The preseason model is calling for a lopsided USC win but by 17.7 points, not the 27 the point spread indicates.
Smart Call: Bet on Western Michigan to cover.
Nebraska (-16.5) vs. Arkansas State
Transfer Tanner Lee takes over Tommy Armstrong, Jr. as the Cornhuskers’ starting quarterback after throwing for 3,601 yards and posting a 23-21 TD-INT ratio in two years for Tulane. Arkansas State had a solid pass defense last year, checking in at No. 36 for the 0.12 adjusted EPA per pass it allowed last year. Nebraska is a 16.5-point favorite, with the preseason model calling for a 15.1-point Cornhuskers win. This one might be too close to pull the trigger on.
Smart Call: Projection too close to spread, don’t touch it.
Colorado (-5) vs. Colorado State
Sefo Liufau leaves Colorado as its all-time leading passer, capping off his Buffaloes career with a sensational senior season that saw him lead them to the Pac-12 title game and its first 10-win season in 15 years despite being picked to finish last in the division. Steven Montez did get some experience last year while Liufau was injured, putting up 23.85 pass EPA and even averaging more EPA per pass (0.18) than Liufau did (0.14) last season. Colorado brings back Phillip Lindsay at running back, as well as its top nine pass-catchers from a year ago. Colorado State is a solid team in its own right, checking in at No. 55 in the preseason model with a 15.85 rating and is one of the contenders in the Mountain West. Despite trailing in the middle of the second quarter of its season opener last weekend against Oregon State, the Rams went on to win, 57-28, scoring 44 points over the game’s final 39 minutes. Their offense will be tough to keep up with but they were just No. 82 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed last year (0.22). The preseason model is calling for Colorado to win by 7.6 and, as efficient as Montez was last year, along with the returning production around him on offense, the Buffaloes could be a smart bet this week.
Smart Call: Bet on Colorado to cover.
Notre Dame (-17.5) vs. Temple
DeShone Kizer is off to the NFL, recently named the Browns’ starting quarterback and Malik Zaire is in Gainesville, where Florida has yet to name its starter. Notre Dame is putting junior Brandon Wimbush behind center. He’s only thrown five passes in his career but is talented. Wimbush was the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback prospect in the country, according to the 247Sports Composite, and the No. 46 overall prospect. Josh Adams will return to join him in the backfield, as will six of the Fighting Irish’s leading receivers from this past season and four returning starters on the offensive line. But Temple had one of the country’s best defenses last year, allowing only 18.4 points per game (No. 11 in the nation) and 0.09 adjusted EPA per pass (No. 24). The Owls lose their head coach as Matt Rhule is now at Baylor but bring back three starters in the secondary. That’s one of the reasons why the preseason model is calling for Notre Dame to win, but by only 8.3 points.
Smart Call: Bet on Temple to cover.
Auburn (-34.5) vs. Georgia Southern
Jarrett Stidham was incredibly efficient during his short stint as Baylor’s starter two years ago. He was named the starter over incumbent Sean White and could make the Tigers’ offense, which ran the ball close to 70% of the time last year, more balanced in 2017. His 0.68 adjusted EPA per pass was the best in the country in 2015. Georgia Southern ranked No. 41 in adjusted EPA per pass allowed (0.14) last year and Auburn is projected to win this one by 25.1, nearly 10 fewer than Vegas is calling for. Stidham should have a great year and Auburn should have an explosive offense this season, but don’t look for a 30-plus-point blowout in its opener.
Smart Call: Bet on Georgia Southern to cover.
Baylor (-30) vs. Liberty
Zach Smith filled in for Seth Russell after he suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Oklahoma, starting the last four games. He lost three in a row before leading Baylor to an upset win over Boise State in the Cactus Bowl. He racked up 41.90 pass EPA last year and averaged an impressive 0.22 EPA per pass, nearly matching Russell’s 0.25 mark. But it was Arizona graduate transfer Anu Solomon who won the job after a productive but up-and-down three years with the Wildcats. He completed nearly 60% of his passes there while throwing for more than three times as many touchdowns (49) as interceptions. Baylor is a 30-point favorite in its opener against Liberty, but the preseason model has the Bears winning by closer to 40 (39.9).
Smart Call: Bet on Baylor to cover.
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