I am normally an optimistic person but also would like to believe that I am semi realistic or at least not completely dillusional. In the last 7 years I don’t post much because I haven’t felt much if any optimism about a our chances and honestly Husker football fandom has been more a chore than fun. I believe that will change in 2021 and will attempt to articulate how much I think the roster has improved and why this thing may just turn around in year 4.
Definitions / Background for analysis
High Rated – 5.7 or better
Blue Chip – 5.9 or Better
Stats - Rankings from Rivals which is not perfect but generally is a good approximation at macro level and also consistent with recent lack of conference honorees and draft choices
Assumption it typically takes 2-3 years to derail a good roster if a new coach doesn’t effectively recruit and about same amount of time to build up a poor roster if that is what you inherit
2014-2017 Recruiting (4 years prior Frost)
Landed High Rated– 33
Retained – 14 for 2018
Blue Chips – (Farmer, Gebbia, and Lindsey)
With Lindsey and Gebbia being transition casualties left Frost with 12 total high rated players and 1 Blue Chip from the group as the core of his first two teams. Conclusion is Frost inherited a well below Big Ten average roster from Riley. I personally think there a lot of Husker fans that don't necessarily agree with this. But rankings, lack of drafted players ands conference honorees all point to this opinion being accurate.
2018 to 2021 (Frost Classes)
Landed - High Rated 62
Retained – 44 for 2021
Blue Chips Available - 11 (Martinez, Henrich, Benhardt, Robinson, Gates, Betts Corcoran, Manning, Joseph, Fidone, Prochazka)
1QB, 3OL, 3WR, 1DL, 1LB, 2Sec
Only 1 of the 44 are Seniors or two if you count Cam Talyor Britt which means a vast majority of the high rated players will be around for next 2-3 years.
Scott has landed twice the high rated recruits as previous four years and retained 3 times the number with 5 times the Blue Chips if you remove Gebbia who transferred before 2018 year started and leave Lindsey because his was available that first year.
2014-2017 recruiting ineffectiveness outlined above had massive impacts across the board on the Staffs early lack of success but most notably at offensive line where it killed any chance of fielding a competitive offense in 2019 after Foster/Farmer graduated. Also, likely main cause of Martinez regression from 2018 to 2019 and into 2020.
The 2019 interior o-line of So Hixson, RF 265 Lb converted TE Jurgens and a below Big Ten average and injured Wilson was, in my opinion, the worst interion o-line in the BIG when you factor impact of snaps. Sophomore Farniok was also well below Big Ten average right tackle and LT So James was the only solid player at that point being a Big Ten average left tackle as a Sophmore. This overall offensive line was in bottom 2-3 in league and derailed Martinez who didn’t do himself any favors in 2019 with the extra weight that slowed his running which was really impactful as running for his life was one of our key plays in 2019. The combination of line play and Martinez regressions effectively tied an arm behind Scotts back as a play caller as well. The only good thing that came out of this was the 2019 screen pass post on Rivals about a week ago. After Frost ran 44 times for 98 yards against a bad South Alabama team to start the season, I assume he realized they would need to do other things against big ten teams and I think the number of screens were one of those other things.
While it was only Rutgers in our final game of 2020, with the three Freshman and a sophomore on the oline we put up significantly more yards against them than any other team they played and only OSU averaged more per play against them. I expect the left side with Top 100 Corcoran, Piper and Jurgens to continue to develop over Spring and Fall and to be flat out imposing in the run game in 2021 and more than competitive in pass protection with the right side holding there own or Big Ten average.
To provide perspective on improvement in the Oline room, the only 2019 player I think that would make the two deep in 2021 would be So James as backup to Corcoran. I would even take this a step further and say you could field a second team line from 2021 group with scholarship backups that would significantly outperform that 2019 line which is staggering to think about.
While concerning to some, WR/TE group has 9 high rated players and still has 3 blue chips even without Robinson. Martin, Brown, Flack, Allen, Volkolek along with transfer Touré should ensure this groups floor is competitive (slightly below Big Ten avg.). What I believe will separate this group from competitive to good is the likelihood of 1 or more of Betts, Manning and/or Fidone developing into a “Dude” over Spring and Fall camp. Only the o-line has as many Blue Chip recruits as our WR/TE group and I expect that to show up in 2021 as all but 3 of the 9 are returning players. We also caught a break with Manning on not losing a year of eligibility given that he wasn't physically/mentally ready to help which is one of reasons many schools typically avoid all but highest rated 2 year Jucos. With the extra year, Every one but Toure/Flack will be back in 2022 so this group could develop similarly to o-line moving forward and be something special relative to recent Nebraska standards.
I think of the concept of synergy or whole being greater than some of parts for my offensive expectations in 2021. It will start with an effective running game behind this o-line that Allen has assembled along with Martinez and a serviceable RB that I am sure exists within our 6 Scholorship backs. This will put Martinez and Frost in a high percentage of advantageous (run-pass) down and distances which is were he is most effective. There is simply too much talent at WR not to at least be as good as 2018. In that scenario 2018 Freshman Martinez threw for 18 TD and and 7 INT. I think the talent around him in 2021 will be significantly better than 2018 when you factor in O-line. I personally wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Martinez throws something like 22 TD with 8 interceptions and 600 plus rushing yards with the player around him and Frosts ability to better manage play calling with the running game he will be able to use in 2021.
This is an incredibly important year for Scott and for Husker football. Fairly quietly, a solid roster has been built that will return almost everyone in 2022 on offense including what could be a top 2-3 o-line in the big ten. If Frost comes out and demonstrate the offense that many people expected and goes 6-2 in West (likely minimum record to win West) he will be able to maintain or even accelerate what I believe has been West Division leading recruiting into the 2022 class. The 2022 team will also likely start the year ranked, with expectations and a lot of momentum.
IF he cannot win at least 7 games with the talent we have in 2021 I don’t see how he could win much more in 2022 with basically the same players returning. At that point, given the talent, I will probably have to agree with the crowd claiming he cannot coach and that we just playing string out for the next guy. Personally I don't think this will be the case and very excited for 2021.