2017 defense

[Tuco Salamanca]

So I was sort of bored and while scrolling through Twitter I saw something about Diaco that drew my attention. Diaco had been a DC or head coach at 3 previous places prior to Nebraska. So I wanted to see how teams improved or regressed in his first season as compared to the previous season. If that makes sense.

What I did was calculate the increase/decrease from year to year, then averaged the increase/decrease for the 3 years. I then took that averaged 3 yr increase/decrease and applied it to Nebraska 2016 defensive numbers in order to project what 2017 may look like. Below are my findings, would you be ok with these numbers?

Scoring - 23 ppg

Rushing - 469 attempts 2104 yards, 4.49 ypc, 24 TDs

Passing - 433 attempts, 284 completions 2492 yards, 16 INTs and 13 TD, 5.75 YPA, 8.76 YPC

Total D - 4786 yards 903 plays and 5.3 YPP

The completion pct is a bit too high but I think I can live with the rest.

 

[WHCSC]

A bit surprised and underwhelmed

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Sorry, I can't get my head around such a vague post. What is surprising or underwhelming?

 

[WHCSC]

The numbers. Maybe a drastic turnaround in year 1 is too much to expect? How do these number compare to 2016?

 

[NYC-Husker]

So I was sort of bored and while scrolling through Twitter I saw something about Diaco that drew my attention. Diaco had been a DC or head coach at 3 previous places prior to Nebraska. So I wanted to see how teams improved or regressed in his first season as compared to the previous season. If that makes sense.

What I did was calculate the increase/decrease from year to year, then averaged the increase/decrease for the 3 years. I then took that averaged 3 yr increase/decrease and applied it to Nebraska 2016 defensive numbers in order to project what 2017 may look like. Below are my findings, would you be ok with these numbers?

Scoring - 23 ppg

Rushing - 469 attempts 2104 yards, 4.49 ypc, 24 TDs

Passing - 433 attempts, 284 completions 2492 yards, 16 INTs and 13 TD, 5.75 YPA, 8.76 YPC

Total D - 4786 yards 903 plays and 5.3 YPP

The completion pct is a bit too high but I think I can live with the rest.

Thanks for putting that together. Looking at last year's statistics, the defensive rushing statistics were not all that different from your projections

(Link: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/nebraska/2016.html#all_team
), while the defensive passing statistics look like they would be significantly worse if your projections hold, particularly, as you mentioned, completion %. I am hoping at least some of that is just giving up short passes when nothing is available downfield, but that is admittedly just my kool-aid drinking self looking for a silver lining.

I didn't realize Nebraska only completed 50% of passes last year until looking at those stats, but I would think that would take a pretty good leap, while our average YPC could take a bit of a hit without Tommy's wheels.

 

[jlb321]

Thanks for doing this

are those stats projected over 12 games or 13 games - I am looking at the last years stats that include 13 games for comparison purposes

with regards to points per game - essentially the same 23 vs 23.9
I hope to see some tangible improvement on defense this year but wouldn't bet on it

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

The numbers. Maybe a drastic turnaround in year 1 is too much to expect? How do these number compare to 2016?

Some better some worse, some neutral. You can clearly see the emphasis on reducing the big play. Yards per rush is neutral, but yards per pass attempt and completion are significantly better. Total yards per play would be down from 2016.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Thanks for doing this

are those stats projected over 12 games or 13 games - I am looking at the last years stats that include 13 games for comparison purposes

with regards to points per game - essentially the same 23 vs 23.9
I hope to see some tangible improvement on defense this year but wouldn't bet on it

13 games

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Thanks for putting that together. Looking at last year's statistics, the defensive rushing statistics were not all that different from your projections

(Link: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/nebraska/2016.html#all_team
), while the defensive passing statistics look like they would be significantly worse if your projections hold, particularly, as you mentioned, completion %. I am hoping at least some of that is just giving up short passes when nothing is available downfield, but that is admittedly just my kool-aid drinking self looking for a silver lining.

I didn't realize Nebraska only completed 50% of passes last year until looking at those stats, but I would think that would take a pretty good leap, while our average YPC could take a bit of a hit without Tommy's wheels.

I disagree about the defensive pass statistics. I think it shows exactly what you say at the end, short passes will be completed at a much higher rate.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I would also add that the personnel at Cincinnati and UCONN probably isn't on par with what we have. Although Cincinnati was pretty good that 2009 season.

The improvement at Notre Dame was significantly better than the other two.

 

[jlb321]

points per game is essentially the same - how the points are generated may be a bit different

I think the talent we have at defensive line and LB is a bit overestimated and we are going to struggle

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

points per game is essentially the same - how the points are generated may be a bit different

I think the talent we have at defensive line and LB is a bit overestimated and we are going to struggle

Great

 

[inWV]

The thing that we need to improve above all else is the big chunk runs against three teams in our division: NW, Wisc and Iowa. Do that and we are have a great shot to be in the CCG. Does this defense aid in that? Can we provide a solution to what are really just a handful of plays that have hurt us the past couple of years. The stats could improve or degrade marginally compared to last year, but if we can't do the above, it won't matter.

 

[ridge22]

I just kind of took a look at similar situations over that last couple or years, going back to 2013. I looked at FBS coaches who had been fired and took over as a coordinator at another school. Surprisingly it was less than I thought. Two that stuck out that were somewhat similar were Will Muschamp and Brady Hoke. Although both were at higher profile jobs than Diaco previously they both were canned and within 1 or 2 years took over as DC's at a power 5 school.

Muschamp went to Auburn and they had a drop of .7 ppg and were up slightly in ypg given up at 6 ypg. That was in 2015, last year Kevin Steele took over and really had the defense going at Auburn with a drop of 9 ppg and gave up 43 yards less per game. Last year Brady Hoke took over as the DC and Oregon and it was a train wreck they gave up 4 more ppg and over 35 yards more a game. Granted Oregon was piss poor on defense in 2015, but Hoke made it even worse in 2016 with 5 games of giving up over 550 yards and three consecutive games of giving up over 630 yards of offense.

Tough to tell what happens, I wouldn't expect a huge turn around for last year to this year, but having a more productive offense may help to offset some defensive numbers.

 

[vs540husker]

The numbers. Maybe a drastic turnaround in year 1 is too much to expect? How do these number compare to 2016?

Bob Diaco total defense and scoring defense rank per year:
2016- Total 65th Scoring 65th
2015- Total 33rd Scoring 15th
2014- Total 49th Scoring 84th
2013- Total 31st Scoring 27th
2012- Total 7th Scoring 2nd
2011- Total 30th Scoring 24th
2010- Total 50th Scoring 23rd
2009- Total 67th Scoring 44th

Nebraska defense in that same time period:
2016- Total 40th Scoring 33rd
2015- Total 30th Scoring 76th
2014- Total 52nd Scoring 59th
2013- Total 40th Scoring 50th
2012- Total 35th Scoring 58th
2011- Total 37th Scoring 42nd
2010- Total 11th Scoring 9th
2009- Total 7th Scoring 1st

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I just kind of took a look at similar situations over that last couple or years, going back to 2013. I looked at FBS coaches who had been fired and took over as a coordinator at another school. Surprisingly it was less than I thought. Two that stuck out that were somewhat similar were Will Muschamp and Brady Hoke. Although both were at higher profile jobs than Diaco previously they both were canned and within 1 or 2 years took over as DC's at a power 5 school.

Muschamp went to Auburn and they had a drop of .7 ppg and were up slightly in ypg given up at 6 ypg. That was in 2015, last year Kevin Steele took over and really had the defense going at Auburn with a drop of 9 ppg and gave up 43 yards less per game. Last year Brady Hoke took over as the DC and Oregon and it was a train wreck they gave up 4 more ppg and over 35 yards more a game. Granted Oregon was piss poor on defense in 2015, but Hoke made it even worse in 2016 with 5 games of giving up over 550 yards and three consecutive games of giving up over 630 yards of offense.

Tough to tell what happens, I wouldn't expect a huge turn around for last year to this year, but having a more productive offense may help to offset some defensive numbers.

I guess I don't see that correlation. Especially with Hoke. Hoke was never a DC before so that means little to me.

Muschamp I guess. But that isn't much of a sample size to compare Diaco to.

 

[dockentwo]

I would also add that the personnel at Cincinnati and UCONN probably isn't on par with what we have. Although Cincinnati was pretty good that 2009 season.

The improvement at Notre Dame was significantly better than the other two.

THIS Is probably the true comp; as you are closer in talent levels and schedules. Now if we bring the Iowa stats down to their average this year , our annualized stats will improve noticeably . ..
Concerns seem warranted, optimimism to exceed also finds fertile ground.
- A few near give up games or quarters, that will dry up or be minimized.
- Special teams improvement should help a bit.
- No- crease emphases , could eliminate the or a major weakness. For many of the big plays .
- I think the new assistant mix improves the D equal to the coordinator change , or the total much
better.
- His red zone rep; seeing some evidence of it, should bring the point totals down.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Bob Diaco total defense and scoring defense rank per year:
2016- Total 65th Scoring 65th
2015- Total 33rd Scoring 15th
2014- Total 49th Scoring 84th
2013- Total 31st Scoring 27th
2012- Total 7th Scoring 2nd
2011- Total 30th Scoring 24th
2010- Total 50th Scoring 23rd
2009- Total 67th Scoring 44th

Nebraska defense in that same time period:
2016- Total 40th Scoring 33rd
2015- Total 30th Scoring 76th
2014- Total 52nd Scoring 59th
2013- Total 40th Scoring 50th
2012- Total 35th Scoring 58th
2011- Total 37th Scoring 42nd
2010- Total 11th Scoring 9th
2009- Total 7th Scoring 1st

What conclusions can you draw from those numbers? I can see one thing that jumps off the page. I'll let you give your conclusion or analysis before I chime in.

 

[WestCoastCornhusker2]

So I was sort of bored and while scrolling through Twitter I saw something about Diaco that drew my attention. Diaco had been a DC or head coach at 3 previous places prior to Nebraska. So I wanted to see how teams improved or regressed in his first season as compared to the previous season. If that makes sense.

What I did was calculate the increase/decrease from year to year, then averaged the increase/decrease for the 3 years. I then took that averaged 3 yr increase/decrease and applied it to Nebraska 2016 defensive numbers in order to project what 2017 may look like. Below are my findings, would you be ok with these numbers?

Scoring - 23 ppg

Rushing - 469 attempts 2104 yards, 4.49 ypc, 24 TDs

Passing - 433 attempts, 284 completions 2492 yards, 16 INTs and 13 TD, 5.75 YPA, 8.76 YPC

Total D - 4786 yards 903 plays and 5.3 YPP

The completion pct is a bit too high but I think I can live with the rest.

"4.49 ypc" Then he should be fired soon.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Cool

 

[vs540husker]

What conclusions can you draw from those numbers? I can see one thing that jumps off the page. I'll let you give your conclusion or analysis before I chime in.

What jumps out to me is Diaco has had 5 top 30 scoring defenses, while Nebraska only had 2.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

What jumps out to me is Diaco has had 5 top 30 scoring defenses, while Nebraska only had 2.

That too

I see the emphasis on scoring defense rather than total defense, red zone defense is what Diaco seems to emphasize.

 

[WestCoastCornhusker2]

The biggest factor is change/improvement in players. Osborne retired in 97 for a reason, he knew 98' personnel wouldn't be the same.

 

[jay-cheese]

Stats aside, I like what Diaco brings to the table in energy and scheme. One of those should be easy to see right away, and the other is a wait and see in terms of benefit. I like the added elements (would never DARE use the word "multiple") that the 3-4 brings to the table. Really like the fact that he isn't going to stay in cover two as a strict base secondary defense (how easy is that to prepare against when you know it doesn't vary??). Diaco knows B1G football, not to mention the expectations here, too. I see more energy translate into more turnovers and aggressive type play, both elements that we needed to improve on. Special teams improvement (punt/kick avg, coverage, etc) could be a nice extra bonus as well.

GBR

 

[Huskercigar]

Stats aside, I like what Diaco brings to the table in energy and scheme. One of those should be easy to see right away, and the other is a wait and see in terms of benefit. I like the added elements (would never DARE use the word "multiple") that the 3-4 brings to the table. Really like the fact that he isn't going to stay in cover two as a strict base secondary defense (how easy is that to prepare against when you know it doesn't vary??). Diaco knows B1G football, not to mention the expectations here, too. I see more energy translate into more turnovers and aggressive type play, both elements that we needed to improve on. Special teams improvement (punt/kick avg, coverage, etc) could be a nice extra bonus as well.

GBR

I think the bold above is a key. Especially the energy. I can't speak for the coaches he was with before but I think right now, with MR, and with this team after Banker......that Diaco is bringing something to the table we need on defense. Its that energy.

 

[jflores]

In terms of expecting a radical change in defense, I think a historical maxim needs to be applied.

If you are switching systems, and don't suffer loss of production, you are doing good. If you are doing loads better, its a cherry on top.

Me personally, I'm expecting facets of our game to be better, perhaps red zone, overall energy, etc. I don't really expect a Top 15 unit in several statistical categories in Year 1.

There are a lot of moving parts to this. We seem to have a good NT, which is a must, but he's 1 deep. DE depth is good. ILB is good but young overall, will probably be dominant in the future. OLB is a huge question mark (the #1 spot in question in the transition). The secondary is young and has an injury to the best overall player.

We shouldn't be a terrible defense but we probably won't be mentioned in the same breath as say a Bama either.

 

[TheBeav815]

I'll believe a leap forward from the defense when I see it. I expect the secondary to be good-not-great, the LBs to be a bit above average and the DL to be a bit below average.

There's nothing new that suggests to me their lack of pass rush will be solved. When you pair an anemic pass rush with a lack of depth at CB, that's a worrisome combination.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I'll believe a leap forward from the defense when I see it. I expect the secondary to be good-not-great, the LBs to be a bit above average and the DL to be a bit below average.

There's nothing new that suggests to me their lack of pass rush will be solved. When you pair an anemic pass rush with a lack of depth at CB, that's a worrisome combination.

So what do you think Northwestern's record will be in2017?

 

[GeauxBigRed]

I'll believe a leap forward from the defense when I see it. I expect the secondary to be good-not-great, the LBs to be a bit above average and the DL to be a bit below average.

There's nothing new that suggests to me their lack of pass rush will be solved. When you pair an anemic pass rush with a lack of depth at CB, that's a worrisome combination.

You have a valid opinion but I have a hard one believing the defense won't take a step forward just based on the fact their defensive coordinator knows what he actually doing and isn't hated by every defensive player on the field.

 

[TheBeav815]

So what do you think Northwestern's record will be in2017?

I have no idea on Northwestern. Are you asking because I live near Evanston or did I miss a conncetion somewhere?

 

[TheBeav815]

You have a valid opinion but I have a hard one believing the defense won't take a step forward just based on the fact their defensive coordinator knows what he actually doing and isn't hated by every defensive player on the field.

You can get me to buy a step forward. But if you asked me if I think they crack the top 30 I'd say no.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I have no idea on Northwestern. Are you asking because I live near Evanston or did I miss a conncetion somewhere?

I just like to use Northwestern as a guide, it could be Iowa or Minnesota.

I find it interesting that some posters can look at a Northwestern team coming off a 7-6 season where they lost to an FCS team at home and project them to win 9 or 10 games because they return X number of players, but look at a Nebraska defense that returns 6-7 starters and 4 starters from an offensive line from a 9-4 team and automatically assume it will be worse? That's all

 

[TheBeav815]

I just like to use Northwestern as a guide, it could be Iowa or Minnesota.

I find it interesting that some posters can look at a Northwestern team coming off a 7-6 season where they lost to an FCS team at home and project them to win 9 or 10 games because they return X number of players, but look at a Nebraska defense that returns 6-7 starters and 4 starters from an offensive line from a 9-4 team and automatically assume it will be worse? That's all

I like to call that the "Playstation model of returning players." It assumes that each guy gets a +4 or +5 to his overall rating in the offseason just by virtue of being a year older. But that's not always how it works in the real world. Sometimes a guy isn't a very good player as a freshman and he isn't a very good player as a senior.

Guys who have shown no gift for getting to the QB might have the light bulb come on this year and record 10 sacs. Or they might stay who they are and record 1.5.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

I like to call that the "Playstation model of returning players." It assumes that each guy gets a +4 or +5 to his overall rating in the offseason just by virtue of being a year older. But that's not always how it works in the real world. Sometimes a guy isn't a very good player as a freshman and he isn't a very good player as a senior.

Guys who have shown no gift for getting to the QB might have the light bulb come on this year and record 10 sacs. Or they might stay who they are and record 1.5.

I understand what you are saying but it appears you are using the roles and assignments of previous staffs to determine how they will execute with this staff.

The guys that are going to be tasked with getting to the QB under Diaco aren't necessarily the same guys that were tasked with it for Pelini or Banker.

Newby, Gifford, King, Alex Davis, Guy Thomas, Furgeson, Alexander...those are the players that we will rely on to generate pass rush when we rush 4, any pass rush you get from the front 3 is a bonus and will come as much from confusion and alignment as much as natural ability to rush the passer.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

I just like to use Northwestern as a guide, it could be Iowa or Minnesota.

I find it interesting that some posters can look at a Northwestern team coming off a 7-6 season where they lost to an FCS team at home and project them to win 9 or 10 games because they return X number of players, but look at a Nebraska defense that returns 6-7 starters and 4 starters from an offensive line from a 9-4 team and automatically assume it will be worse? That's all

Exactly. Not to mention that we beat them last year at their place and would have won going away had we not fumbled twice at the one inch line. We have outrecruited them over several years and we get them in Lincoln this year as well. And yet, half of the "experts" out there rate this game as a toss up. What a joke.

 

[Pennsyhusker]

You have a valid opinion but I have a hard one believing the defense won't take a step forward just based on the fact their defensive coordinator knows what he actually doing and isn't hated by every defensive player on the field.

Every defensive player on the field hated Banker? This is the first time I have heard that. I suspected there was not a whole lot of love there since nobody on defense seemed even the slightest bit upset when he was fired.

 

[TheBeav815]

I understand what you are saying but it appears you are using the roles and assignments of previous staffs to determine how they will execute with this staff.

The guys that are going to be tasked with getting to the QB under Diaco aren't necessarily the same guys that were tasked with it for Pelini or Banker.

Newby, Gifford, King, Alex Davis, Guy Thomas, Furgeson, Alexander...those are the players that we will rely on to generate pass rush when we rush 4, any pass rush you get from the front 3 is a bonus and will come as much from confusion and alignment as much as natural ability to rush the passer.

Your point is well taken, but unfortunately I have yet to hear anything about OLB performance that convinces me the new alignment won't have the same old problems. Particularly the amount of hinting about how much time could be spent in nickel and dime personnel.

I do think the Davis twins can be an upgrade at DT in terms of explosiveness. As far as DE/OLB, I'm still looking for somebody to show me.

Who was the last edge rusher who was really a difference maker other than Gregory? Do we have to go all the way back to Carricker?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Exactly. Not to mention that we beat them last year at their place and would have won going away had we not fumbled twice at the one inch line. We have outrecruited them over several years and we get them in Lincoln this year as well. And yet, half of the "experts" out there rate this game as a toss up. What a joke.

Just for clarity, I am not saying Northwestern won't be good or better, I am just trying to understand the process of determining how much one aspect outweighs the other.

For whatever reason Willie Taggert, and his 40-45 overall record in 7 seasons, is the difference in Oregon being 4-8 last year and 9-3 this. For some reason Oregon players won't have an issue with the learning curve going from a "finesse" blocking spread team to a power blocking spread team. And them switching back to a 3-4 from the 4-3 will be seamless because had a great couple of years at Colorado after coaching LBs for Harbaugh at San Francisco.

Just looking for the magic pill to understand

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Your point is well taken, but unfortunately I have yet to hear anything about OLB performance that convinces me the new alignment won't have the same old problems. Particularly the amount of hinting about how much time could be spent in nickel and dime personnel.

I do think the Davis twins can be an upgrade at DT in terms of explosiveness. As far as DE/OLB, I'm still looking for somebody to show me.

Who was the last edge rusher who was really a difference maker other than Gregory? Do we have to go all the way back to Carricker?

To me major difference between the 3-4 and the 4-3, when it comes to pressure, is that you don't have to rely so much on having the physical abilities to generate pass rush. Beating a man 1 on 1 makes it more effective but a lot of the time the rush is generated by deception and alignment and confusing the OLine so they call the wrong protection. Obviously, as I said, having someone with say Guy Thomas' pass rushing skills makes it even better, but not a requirement.

 

[TheBeav815]

To me major difference between the 3-4 and the 4-3, when it comes to pressure, is that you don't have to rely so much on having the physical abilities to generate pass rush. Beating a man 1 on 1 makes it more effective but a lot of the time the rush is generated by deception and alignment and confusing the OLine so they call the wrong protection. Obviously, as I said, having someone with say Guy Thomas' pass rushing skills makes it even better, but not a requirement.

Forgive a Bears fan for waiting to get excited based on the switch from 4-3 to 3-4 until we have the horses for it. Nobody doubts Vic Fangio can coach defense, but I think you all saw the Bears...

Hopefully Guy Thomas will be the next Leonard Floyd at Georgia and not the Leonard Floyd we've had in Chicago to date.