Delusional.
Nebraska's 2022 recruiting class is its worst in modern history. The thing that gets dicey is how can you expect Frost to recruit a class of difference-makers in 2023 when he will be coming off four straight losing seasons and his seat already smoldering? That class is expected to number at least 20 and will be even worse than 2022. This will set the program back massively from already bottom of BIG level.
Who is going to commit to a coach they know has a coin flip's chance of being retained after the season? If Frost fails again and a change is made a year from now, any class he assembles will fall apart and you're condemning the program to back-to-back terrible recruiting classes. That will make your next rebuild under a new staff that much more difficult.
Since 1971, there have been 705 coaches who were at the same school 4+ years. One hundred five (15%) got a fifth season after having zero winning seasons, zero bowl appearances and less than .390 win percentage. Of those 105 coaches, only 14 (13%) ever had a winning season at that school. Of those 14, only two went on to have a career record over .500 at that school. Only four ever finished a season at that school ranked in the top 25. None of those coaches ever went on to finish in the top 10.
In those 50 years, not once did a top-20 program like Nebraska give a coach a fifth year after four straight losing seasons. Not once. In fact, you'll only find two examples of a coach at a top-20 program getting a fourth season after three straight losing seasons; In 2008, Washington fired Tyrone Willingham after he went 0-12 in his fourth year after going 2-9, 5-7 and 4-9 the previous three seasons. In 1994, LSU fired Curley Hallman after he went 4-7 in his fourth year after going 5-6, 2-9 and 5-6 the previous three seasons. What Alberts is doing is unprecedented.
What about Frost's current contemporaries? Well, there are 55 FBS coaches who have coached as many games as Scott Frost at their current schools. Thirty-two of those coaches are also at Power Five schools. Among his peers, Frost ranks in the bottom 3 in overall winning percentage, winning percentage against conference opponents, winning percentage against teams with a winning record, winning percentage against teams with a winning conference record, winning percentage against Power Five teams and winning percentage against Top 25 teams.
Let's go a step further and compare not just the current coaches, but the programs. There are 65 Power Five teams. Since Frost took over at Nebraska in 2018, only six (9%) have a worse overall record: Kansas, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Arkansas and Oregon State. That's the sort of company Alberts is okay with Nebraska being part of, apparently. Oregon State is the only one of those six that hasn't changed coaches in that span. Give the other five credit for not getting apathetic.
Of Frost's 15 wins, five came against teams from the FCS (2018 Bethune-Cookman, 2021 Fordham), Sun Belt (2019 South Alabama) and MAC (2019 Northern Illinois, 2021 Buffalo). Of his 10 wins against Power Five opponents, only two of those teams (Minnesota, Michigan State) finished with a winning record. Both were 7-6 in 2018. Northwestern, which Nebraska beat October 2, is currently 3-6. The other seven were a combined 25-48 (.342 win percentage). Even if you include the three Group of Five teams, the total records for the 13 FBS teams Frost beat is 53-88 (.376).
Frost has lost to seven opponents that finished a season (or currently sit) under .500. Frost is 2-20 against teams with a winning record. Every other Big Ten West team has beaten at least two ranked teams since 2018. Frost is currently 0-12, losing by an average margin of 15.8 points.
Frost has a 10-23 (.303%) conference record (dead last) and is 6-15 (.286%) against teams in the West Division, which is tied with Illinois for dead last. In fact, Frost doesn’t have a winning record against a single team in the Big Ten West. Keep in mind those records are likely to get worse with two games against top 25 teams left on the schedule. Nebraska is the only team in the West that will have finished in the bottom 3 of the division each of the past four years. Frost has won back-to-back games just four times (has never had a three-game winning streak), and has won back-to-back league games only once.
It will truly take a modern day miracle for things to work out for Frost at Nebraska.
Nebraska's 2022 recruiting class is its worst in modern history. The thing that gets dicey is how can you expect Frost to recruit a class of difference-makers in 2023 when he will be coming off four straight losing seasons and his seat already smoldering? That class is expected to number at least 20 and will be even worse than 2022. This will set the program back massively from already bottom of BIG level.
Who is going to commit to a coach they know has a coin flip's chance of being retained after the season? If Frost fails again and a change is made a year from now, any class he assembles will fall apart and you're condemning the program to back-to-back terrible recruiting classes. That will make your next rebuild under a new staff that much more difficult.
Since 1971, there have been 705 coaches who were at the same school 4+ years. One hundred five (15%) got a fifth season after having zero winning seasons, zero bowl appearances and less than .390 win percentage. Of those 105 coaches, only 14 (13%) ever had a winning season at that school. Of those 14, only two went on to have a career record over .500 at that school. Only four ever finished a season at that school ranked in the top 25. None of those coaches ever went on to finish in the top 10.
In those 50 years, not once did a top-20 program like Nebraska give a coach a fifth year after four straight losing seasons. Not once. In fact, you'll only find two examples of a coach at a top-20 program getting a fourth season after three straight losing seasons; In 2008, Washington fired Tyrone Willingham after he went 0-12 in his fourth year after going 2-9, 5-7 and 4-9 the previous three seasons. In 1994, LSU fired Curley Hallman after he went 4-7 in his fourth year after going 5-6, 2-9 and 5-6 the previous three seasons. What Alberts is doing is unprecedented.
What about Frost's current contemporaries? Well, there are 55 FBS coaches who have coached as many games as Scott Frost at their current schools. Thirty-two of those coaches are also at Power Five schools. Among his peers, Frost ranks in the bottom 3 in overall winning percentage, winning percentage against conference opponents, winning percentage against teams with a winning record, winning percentage against teams with a winning conference record, winning percentage against Power Five teams and winning percentage against Top 25 teams.
Let's go a step further and compare not just the current coaches, but the programs. There are 65 Power Five teams. Since Frost took over at Nebraska in 2018, only six (9%) have a worse overall record: Kansas, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Arkansas and Oregon State. That's the sort of company Alberts is okay with Nebraska being part of, apparently. Oregon State is the only one of those six that hasn't changed coaches in that span. Give the other five credit for not getting apathetic.
Of Frost's 15 wins, five came against teams from the FCS (2018 Bethune-Cookman, 2021 Fordham), Sun Belt (2019 South Alabama) and MAC (2019 Northern Illinois, 2021 Buffalo). Of his 10 wins against Power Five opponents, only two of those teams (Minnesota, Michigan State) finished with a winning record. Both were 7-6 in 2018. Northwestern, which Nebraska beat October 2, is currently 3-6. The other seven were a combined 25-48 (.342 win percentage). Even if you include the three Group of Five teams, the total records for the 13 FBS teams Frost beat is 53-88 (.376).
Frost has lost to seven opponents that finished a season (or currently sit) under .500. Frost is 2-20 against teams with a winning record. Every other Big Ten West team has beaten at least two ranked teams since 2018. Frost is currently 0-12, losing by an average margin of 15.8 points.
Frost has a 10-23 (.303%) conference record (dead last) and is 6-15 (.286%) against teams in the West Division, which is tied with Illinois for dead last. In fact, Frost doesn’t have a winning record against a single team in the Big Ten West. Keep in mind those records are likely to get worse with two games against top 25 teams left on the schedule. Nebraska is the only team in the West that will have finished in the bottom 3 of the division each of the past four years. Frost has won back-to-back games just four times (has never had a three-game winning streak), and has won back-to-back league games only once.
It will truly take a modern day miracle for things to work out for Frost at Nebraska.