Postseason

[coolonetoo]

The season is 40% over and league play starts this weekend. I think we all agree this is a regional-caliber team. But can it earn a host spot?

The Good News
-Current RPI is 11. A huge improvement over recent years where RPI was a giant hole to dig out of at this point. The team has done well against a slate of above-average opponents.
-Don't expect the RPI to plummet because of the Big Ten schedule. The average winning percentage of opponents played to date is .540. The average winning percentage of opponents yet to play is .582. The average RPI of opponents played to date is 118. The average RPI of opponents yet to play is 77. This is all still very fluid, but by and large, teams are who they are by now.
-There are no games left against teams with truly bad records or RPIs. Michigan State and Minnesota are the worst, currently just below .500 and it's beneficial that both those series are on the road.
-The series against the conference opponent that looks the toughest, Maryland, is at home. So are those against the teams that are probably the most talented but have underachieved, Iowa and Indiana. Rutgers is the only road series against a team that appears to be a contender.
-Midweek games are big opportunities. I root for Creighton to lose every game, but the Bluejays are 17-4. Kansas State is good. Kansas is solid. South Dakota State is 11-12 and hasn't played a home game yet. The Jackrabbits will likely have a winning record come May.

The Bad News
-From a schedule perspective, there is none!

It's all in front of this team to host. They just need to win enough games. I think 40 wins by Saturday of Memorial day weekend should do it. Assuming no more cancellations, that would mean going 21-10 the rest of the way and winning two games in the conference tourney. Totally doable.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Great stuff and I don't really have much else to add that you didn't discuss. There is an assumption that the Big Ten will naturally bring our RPI down similar to past years but it doesn't appear to be the reality this year which is nice for a change.

I also am under the assumption the DSR is what the committee will be looking at more this year. Our numbers are decent there as well. The article on what it looks at does somewhat make RPI moot in the extent that you shouldn't lose as much when playing bad teams but winning margin does matter more now, oddly enough. You essentially take points or give points away to in regards to your opponent. Road games and homes games also still matter as well.

One interesting thing of note is there isn't as much correcting retroactively. So Texas tech for example had their stud ace prior to injury so we get the credit as if the injury never happened even if Tech goes down the tube as the year progresses. I also find it odd they are considered our worse loss. But with no Quad 3 or 4 losses I suppose someone has to be.

Diamond Sports Ranking • D1Baseball

d1baseball.com

 

[coolonetoo]

I don’t know if the committee will use DSR. I suppose any member can look at it anytime even if it’s not an “official” metric. I have two issues with it:

1. I am opposed to margin-of-victory being included. In most sports, if Team A is X points better than Team B and both teams play well, Team A will win by about X points. In baseball, a team might defeat a vastly inferior opponent 4-2 because it hit a dozen rockets right to infielders and made good pitches that the other team made weak contact on but found holes or were bloop hits. The final score is less reliable in determining teams’ relative strengths.
2. The DSR uses previous year data to calculate win probability as part of the ranking. I’m also opposed to this approach. Now, perhaps this is phased out as time passes and eventually the ratings are based only on current season results, but it wasn’t clear to me that is the case when I read the description.

 

[RobsterMobster]

I don’t know if the committee will use DSR. I suppose any member can look at it anytime even if it’s not an “official” metric. I have two issues with it:

1. I am opposed to margin-of-victory being included. In most sports, if Team A is X points better than Team B and both teams play well, Team A will win by about X points. In baseball, a team might defeat a vastly inferior opponent 4-2 because it hit a dozen rockets right to infielders and made good pitches that the other team made weak contact on but found holes or were bloop hits. The final score is less reliable in determining teams’ relative strengths.
2. The DSR uses previous year data to calculate win probability as part of the ranking. I’m also opposed to this approach. Now, perhaps this is phased out as time passes and eventually the ratings are based only on current season results, but it wasn’t clear to me that is the case when I read the description.

I agree, I just thought I saw it was the new metric they were using more but could be mistaken. The differential is odd to me because midweek games you will likely play backups or put worse pitchers in a blowout giving up the margin a tad. I guess they do weight weekend games more which I do like. Wish RPI did that.

 

[sklarbodds]

I think there's a pretty clear path to go to a regional. Hosting is attainable but would need to really keep playing well.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

April will be a good opportunity to solidify our rpi

Maryland #26
Rutgers #39
Crayton #48
Kansas #61