Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter StoneTempleHusker
- Start date
I don’t like any of them this year so I’m just taking a shot with Crown Pride. Epicenter seems like the most likely winner, but Derby day ain’t about taking chalk.
If raining, I feel like a 20 to 1 Longshot will be in the top 3! I like 4 horse, $1 exacts, box! Will do 5 of them, mixed up with 2 favorites & 2 Longshot! I win some, lose some. But I have fun! 😁
With all the advances in care, training and PEDs the below is astonishing
With clean breaks (not a given) Messier and Taiba will be sitting on the lead on the first turn. Simplification and White Abbario are the two who have enough early foot to be in the first flight.
Epicenter will likely be sitting about 10th on the backside. Although he won his last race handily, he went the last 1/8th of a mile lugging in and was on the wrong lead. Shows he was a bit distracted. If he's heading the 2nd flight, it may bode well for him since he may not get to the lead until mid/deep stretch, that tends to keep their mind on their business.
The deep closers will be Zandon and Mo Donegal.
The horses at a price that bear watching are Cyberknife, Charge It, Zozos and Smile Happy.
Like most years, it looks like about 12 horses that can be thrown out based on lack of ability. I equate those horses to sprinters who consistently run
11.5 hundred meters matched against 6-8 that consistently run 11 flat.
Then you add the factor of no Lasix, it makes it a fun race to handicap and a hard race to win, but doable. I always approach a race to not depend on luck. I don't depend on luck, I just hope to avoid bad luck.
Getting a 3 year old to run his best race considering all the traffic, the 10 furlongs, against the best field they've ever faced is usually a pretty tall order.
Every year, 3-4 of the horses who "look" like they fit in the picture encounter gate issues, get shuffled back at the start, get worked up by the large crowd, or just run flat. Hard to tell who those might be.
I tend to look for horses who are athletic and can make one or more moves in traffic. The idea 20 horses will all have clean trips is not realistic.
All that I've posted may go for naught with the field size and post position draw has hurt a couple horses, but I made my bones playing horses over the last 50 years and have my moments. LOL
I told my family when I saw how big the field was that "ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN". Even the winner was boxed in and got an opening at just the right moment to make a break for the lead. WAY too many horses in that field and the early pace made it tough for Epicenter to try to go wire to wire. GREAT race though. Loved the finish.
That jock made a tremendous move when he pulled Rich off the rail to the open spot. What was even more amazing was how that horse accelerated after that. They're "plow reining" those horses and usually when you pull that hard on a horses head to get them to move over that much, they slow down. The way he took off when he got in the open was unbelievable. Great ride and a little bit of luck in the slot opening up for him to get through.
That last move was incredible. Watching it again, there was another move that also had to be negotiated right before that.
Great job by horse and rider.
so when it comes to horses I only bet longshots.
This year, we (me and and buddy) only bet the favs. hhaha. losers again!
This year, we (me and and buddy) only bet the favs. hhaha. losers again!
Epicenter was 6 lenghts off the pace at the 2f mark, there was never a chance Epicenter was going to go wire to wire in this field. He was already in 8th place.
He finally took the lead by a head at the 1 Mile mark. 21 3/5 is an insane pace for a 10f race, and it's similar to when Giacomo came from way off the pace in the 2005 Derby and paid 105.00 to win.
The only way I cashed in the race was by wheeling Epicenter on top and bottom of the exacta, but the least likely horse to beat me was the winner.
Horse racing is a great sport, a really dirty sport, but its a game I've been playing since 1965. It's a sport where you can make a ton of money if you're really good at it.
It makes the steroid era in football, baseball, and any other sport look like child's play in comparison. Blood doping (Epogen), milkshakes, bronchial dialators, lasix, phenybutazone, etc. There are a thousand PED's given daily around the country.
The best horse only wins 32% of the time, regardless of what the past performances may show. It's a game of drugs and equipment and the key element is trainer intent.
There are thousands of ways for a horse to lose a race, and just a handful of ways for a horse to win. We witnessed one yesterday. There is no reasonable handicapper in the country that would have played the winner yesterday based on his racing history. Yet, he won.
I've won and lost races that you can't imagine over my career. I've probably seen it all.
I played a turf race at Sam Houston in Texas on the turf about 10 years ago.
My horse was 30/1 and leading by 8 lengths with about 50 yards to go and decided to take a left turn and jumped the inner rail.
I boxed 4 horses in a race at Lincoln about 20 years ago, and 3 of them went down in a pile up on the first turn.
Expect the unexpected. That's only a couple of examples.
It's a sport I love. You take the good with the bad.
The really great jockeys will use "plow reining" to get a reluctant horse to switch leads. I've talked at length with Chris McCarron about switching leads and he's considered the greatest that's ever lived at getting horses to switch leads.
I've talked with Laffit Pincay, Gary Stevens, Mike Smith all most of the Hall Of Famers. They all have their specialties. It's a helluva tough job. But, the great ones make millions. And sometimes they run 20th in the Derby. LOL
A couple times to Bluffs Run, but only because I was playing ponies. I thought dogs were pretty easy, but not much money to be made, or more aptfly, I didn't want to take the time to introduce a different sport to wager on. Like horses, there are a hundred ways to help them run good or make them run bad.
Not to go off on a speel here, but gambling is a bad situation for many people. One of the main reasons is, they don't know what they are good at and try to be good at all sports wagering. I say find what you are good at, and specialize in it. Different strokes. I knew super good pool players who could win 5k-10k a night shooting pool, then go to the track and blow it in a few hours. They always lacked discipline.
Nothing against guys who wager on baseball, basketball, football, horses, the whole gambit, it's just that I played ponies and ponies only. I guess I never needed the "rush", in fact, to me, at the track any social event was a business failure.
I've played thousands of races in my day. I wagered one time on a $50.00/3 team parlay in football in 1983. I took Penn State, NU and USC and gave the points and lost by 1/2 point. I figured the sport was telling me to stay away from betting, so I have.
My idea was 3 powerhouses (at the time) give the points in 3 different time zones, so if I got the first 2 in, I could always hedge a little before the 3rd game and at a minimum make some money, and not lose any. It took almost all day Saturday to see any result, whereas in horseracing, I could bet my opinion and know if I'm right or wrong in a minute and 10 seconds. And I could make the same $330.00 by wagering $20.00 or so. Different strokes.
I don't play short fields, I don't play a horse that's 12/1 that should be 30/1. I'm a value player, I know lots of guys will win a few bucks and say they're playing with "their" (the "tracks") money, I never felt that way, once it was in my pocket it was my money. It's only a value play if you put money in your pocket.
Guys, I shouldn't be trying to hijack this thread, since we are on the Husker Board. If anyone wants to start an OP in the Open Scrolls, I'll be happy to participate.
It seems as though this is really a slow time of the year in terms of active participation, we are all bombarded by difficult national and world situations, in fact serious shit, its nice to have a temporary distraction.
I never tout a horse to anyone. Everyone has different financial situations, and most people can't afford to lose money on wagering event. When I win, I don't have to hoot and holler like some guys at the track.
I've won before and I will win again, I've lost before and will lose again. My favorite race track joke is asking a friend, at the track, how they are doing and they say, "I hope I break even today, because I really need the money."
If gamblers would take this suggestion, they'd be a lot better off. Nothing is guaranteed, this past Saturday pointed that out.
I've researched horse trainers way before information was accessible online. There is no question in my mind, I have the most extensive, well researched data bank of horse trainers of anyone on this planet. I know it is, because I have done it, so I trust the information.
Back in the day, I charted 300 different trainers from around the country. The majority I have committed to memory. I knew when a trainer entered a horse, that I was going to play the race, I just didn't know how I would construct a wager for that race until I handicapped the entire field of horses and trainers. It wasn't a guess.
Event the low percentage guys have their specialty. Many are in a position when they send their horse to the post, they have to have them ready to win, otherwise, they may not eat for a month. That's pressure, it also guarantees you're playing a trainer with true intent. That's a whole different process involved in playing and winning with these type trainers.
Many of them are money in the bank when they have their horse ready. I have a lot of proven theories about the overall game of horseracing, and it's not a subject that a lot of people are interested in. I can talk for weeks about the sport, but I've already hijacked this thread, and clearly not everyone will share my interest.
It's a fascinating sport, a really dirty sport. People that wager Real Money on this game tend to lose track of how important the human element is. I've been to Breeder's Cups, I've had indepth conversations with the best handicappers in the country, of which I am one.
I wouldn't trade my methodology with any gambler who plays for keeps. I know guys who bet over a million a year, and they rely primarily on the rebate shops to earn a good living.
I'd like to think my experience and skill led me to winning on the Derby, yet, had Epicenter won and Zandon ran second I would have actually lost a few bucks. Pure luck led Rich Strike to the winner's circle, and I hit what was the longest exacta possible in the race. I wouldn't want to rely on that type of "luck" to try to make it an everyday event.
Sorry for the long comments. We are besieged by so much really serious stuff on a daily basis with the current administration. Saturday, and the lead up to the race offered me a refreshing way to put the insanity of the goings on in this country aside, and just have some fun.
I didn't play enough money in the race to worry about winning or losing. I've been a controlled gambler my whole life and don't let the "excitement" of a horse race change my methods.
Thanks for indulging if you made it to the end.
Exactly what I meant by the fast pace preventing Epicenter from going to wire to wire with that gaggle of horses. Love watching the ponies. I haven't been to Vegas for a long time, but my favorite thing to do there is sit in a sports book and bet the ponies. I'm not a big bettor but I grew up horseback.
In your wildest dreams, Epicenter could never have went wire to wire in this field. He was clearly only the 9th fastest gate horse in the bunch. I said he would be laying about 10th on the backside, and he was laying 8th, not exactly a threat to go wire to wire.
I lived at NYNY in Las Vegas playing horses, so I've made a wager or two in my day.
With all due respect, in Open Scrolls I'll match wits with you any day on the knowledge and experience of horses. You name the topic, and I can discuss it in depth for days. Any aspect of the sport.
With all due respect, if someone "thought" Epicenter had a chance to wire this field, it would be a short discussion. And I could prove it with PP's.
Despite my tone, much respect dingle.
Just don't take on a man who made a very big living doing it in real life.
Beautiful.
Appreciate the love for the game and the actual betting part. Me and you would be great over a beer…almost impossible to find other “degenerates” like us.
I'm not, or ever wanted to be a horse owner. That's how you turn a large fortune into a small fortune. Owning horses, by and large is a losing propositoin.
I'd be happy to join you for coffee or a soda, do not partake in alcohol, but endorse social drinking for anyone who is of age.
You know Pelini, a very high percentage of horse players are degenerate gamblers. Most of the time, they play chalk, and that's why they call it a mutuel pool.
Folks never do the math in horseracing. You ever thought how good someone has to be to play even money shots? If they don't hit at a 60% winning clip, they lose money.
Yet, if you wager on 20/1 or higher, if you hit 1 of 10, or 5% you break even. 2 of 20 you win money. it's all about the return.
You bet a 5K claimer, there are 10 horses, 5 who likely can't even make it around the track, 2 or 3 who are "not going today", so you wind up with only 1 or 2 likely winners.
You played Graded stakes races and your horse may run the race of his life and still be beaten by a slightly more talented horse. Look at Epicenter, he ran a very nice overall race, probably not a new top but still was beaten.
I take it you play the game and appear to have a good handle on it. It's a game that be beaten, but only if you do your research, take into account the human element, consider the fact that all jockeys make a mistake at times, and bad luck can beat you even when you have the right horse.
I typically won't talk with people who have limited knowledge, because frankly, the handicapping theories have been wrong since the beginning of the sport.
Secondly, I just don't like to go in circles with those who are just recreational or weekend players. They may have a lucky day on occassion, but overall, the vast majority will lose money. Much of the time, it's money they can't afford to lose. We all know gambling has led to the breakup of many families.
It's a great sport, warts and all. It's not for those who want to attack it half heartedly. It's a lot of work, and sometimes not rewarding, and is never rewarding for those who want to cheat the game in a game that relies on an element of dishonesty.
Talking horses on a football site is not exactly the place for this conversation. It's the off season, not much going on, and the political environment is a disaster. Since I no longer play serious money, it's a nice distraction.
But, for me to argue with some of the guys on here is just ludicrous. I say what I say, I'm prepared to back it up, and I'll talk any aspect of the game with anybody in this country. I've been there and done that. I don't need to read any book on handicapping, I wrote my own.
There are operations that can make money in the game, but, you know as well as I do, a lot of things have to go right.
I wish you well. It's not for everyone. I'm sure it can be a thrill having your horse win, it can also be a thrill taking a business approach to making money.
I know small operations that are obligated to feed their animals before they feed their own family, and that just never appealed to me. LOL
If you want to continue, this topic should be moved to the Open Scrolls area.
Why does everything turn in to a "I know more than you" in every thread you post in? I POSTED that there was no way he was going to go wire to wire because of the size of the field and the speed of the early pace. So exactly what are you refuting? So you've gambled a lot of money on horse racing. Good for you. I'm sure you made enough to retire on. You're a f'n gambling genius.
BTW, my family and I owned dozens of horses when I was a kid and we put a few on the track. And no, we didn't diminish our financial situation. The last year I was at home before post-graduate school our studs stood to over a hundred outside mares and I was responsible for the breeding barn as well as breaking all of the 2 year olds. I was riding performance horses by the time I was in kindergarten. I owned horses up until I sold the last one about 3 years ago. That's about 60 years of experience around horses and watching them in performance events and races. I don't really give a sh## about betting. I just like to watch them run. Riding a great horse is a great feeling and I've straddled a few.
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Your system would probably be just as good as our resident gambling know it all......
My fiance soon to be wife rode horses at events while still in grade school and beyond growing up in Boulder...super fun to look through all the pictures and the amazing documentation her mom did such a great job on.....her group performed tricks and entertained crowds at different events and it's really cool to see what she could do at such a young age. What all of them could do. No fear...and such small people on those big animals doing crazy stuff.
Unfortunately, I do know a bit more than you about horses. I did make enough money to retire. I don't think all operations lose, money, most do.
I'm glad you don't give a shit about gambling, I happen to enjoy it.
I love to watch horses run, that I bet on.
I would not have spent any time at the races if there wasn't betting.
I've ridden many a horse when I was kid, no great feat.
Sounds like you were a real cowboy. Not everybody wants to break 2 year olds. You wouldn't be the first guy I called out on handicapping horses.
I wouldn't think of trying to impress you in the area of performances horses any more than you should try to impress me with your handicapping skills.
A 115# person guiding a 1100# animal is not an easy thing to do. Plus, jockeys are grown men, most of them wrestled or did gymnastics in high school.
She must have had good hands to communicate with the animal.
I NOT ONCE said I know anything about handicapping horses NOR do I give a sh## about it. It's fool's gold. There's no way in hell you made enough betting horses to retire on. The mere fact that the only horse races you will watch are the ones you're betting on tells me all I need to know. I'll put small bets on races just so I have a rooting interest at the book, but I'll watch horse racing on TV just for fun. BTW, I have NEVER lost money betting the way I do in Vegas. All you had to do when you looked at the Derby was look at the odds and it told you that race was filled with a bunch of pretty even horses and it turned out that the one nobody gave a chance won.
I DON'T HAVE HANDICAPPING SKILLS AND DON'T GIVE A SH## ABOUT your PERCEIVED SKILL at handicapping. I don't care about it. There's a HELLUVA difference between riding horses as a kid and breaking colts. People paid me to do it for them starting when I was 13. I rode and did well in national performance horse events as a teenager. I qualifed for nationals 3 times and I drove a thousand miles with my horse by myself to the last one I went to...as a 16 year old. I've also ridden in "out back" match races that my folks and siblings didn't know about. Stuff your handicapping skills.
He’s wrong. You bet on the horse ridden by a jockey in pink silks. 60% of the time it works every time.
I real horsemen will watch a horse and look at his pedigree along with the color of the silks....
My dad comes from the sport, My grandfather owned a few horses and he will pick his vacation spots based on wether he has been to the closest track or not.
He said after the race that you could have rewound the dvr, replayed the race and let him bet it and he still wouldn't bet on that horse. 🤣
Fun story from my mom.I real horsemen will watch a horse and look at his pedigree along with the color of the silks....
My mom worked at Arlington Park when she was going to school at Northwestern. This was 1948. She worked a betting booth. To supplement her income, someone would come around before the ninth race and give her and her fellow employees a “tip” on a horse to bet on.
I have no idea how they controlled the bets, but the track had to have a system in place.
A college friend used to work at Akasarben when he was in high school. His dad ran it. He said he would hang out on the last turn and listen to the jockies. He said one time one of the jocks yelled, "get that SOB going I can't hold mine back much longer". That's why I'm ridiculing the "handicapper". I was walking around the race barns at a Nebraska track where we had a stud running and almost ran dead on in to a trainer wiring a crop with a battery.
You wouldn't get away with most of that stuff today, but horse racing can be pretty dirty.
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