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Kentucky Derby

A college friend used to work at Akasarben when he was in high school. His dad ran it. He said he would hang out on the last turn and listen to the jockies. He said one time one of the jocks yelled, "get that SOB going I can't hold mine back much longer". That's why I'm ridiculing the "handicapper". I was walking around the race barns at a Nebraska track where we had a stud running and almost ran dead on in to a trainer wiring a crop with a battery.

You wouldn't get away with most of that stuff today, but horse racing can be pretty dirty.
I knew someone that had a horse running one Saturday. I was invited up to the “club” area that day. There was a Catholic Priest that was also invited to be with the group. The Priest gives me a hot tip before one of the races. I’m thinking this guy wouldn’t lie to me. I bet on the horse. The Priest didn’t know crap.

For the record, I’m not buying that someone on here made a living off of gambling on the ponies.
 
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In your wildest dreams, Epicenter could never have went wire to wire in this field. He was clearly only the 9th fastest gate horse in the bunch. I said he would be laying about 10th on the backside, and he was laying 8th, not exactly a threat to go wire to wire.

I lived at NYNY in Las Vegas playing horses, so I've made a wager or two in my day.

With all due respect, in Open Scrolls I'll match wits with you any day on the knowledge and experience of horses. You name the topic, and I can discuss it in depth for days. Any aspect of the sport.

With all due respect, if someone "thought" Epicenter had a chance to wire this field, it would be a short discussion. And I could prove it with PP's.

Despite my tone, much respect dingle.

Just don't take on a man who made a very big living doing it in real life.
Just an FYI open scrolls is politics not sports
 
My fiance soon to be wife rode horses at events while still in grade school and beyond growing up in Boulder...super fun to look through all the pictures and the amazing documentation her mom did such a great job on.....her group performed tricks and entertained crowds at different events and it's really cool to see what she could do at such a young age. What all of them could do. No fear...and such small people on those big animals doing crazy stuff.
I loved the donkey show I attended one time
 
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My fiance soon to be wife rode horses at events while still in grade school and beyond growing up in Boulder...super fun to look through all the pictures and the amazing documentation her mom did such a great job on.....her group performed tricks and entertained crowds at different events and it's really cool to see what she could do at such a young age. What all of them could do. No fear...and such small people on those big animals doing crazy stuff.
I expect you will invite us freeboard guys to your wedding.
 
I NOT ONCE said I know anything about handicapping horses NOR do I give a sh## about it. It's fool's gold. There's no way in hell you made enough betting horses to retire on. The mere fact that the only horse races you will watch are the ones you're betting on tells me all I need to know. I'll put small bets on races just so I have a rooting interest at the book, but I'll watch horse racing on TV just for fun. BTW, I have NEVER lost money betting the way I do in Vegas. All you had to do when you looked at the Derby was look at the odds and it told you that race was filled with a bunch of pretty even horses and it turned out that the one nobody gave a chance won.

I DON'T HAVE HANDICAPPING SKILLS AND DON'T GIVE A SH## ABOUT your PERCEIVED SKILL at handicapping. I don't care about it. There's a HELLUVA difference between riding horses as a kid and breaking colts. People paid me to do it for them starting when I was 13. I rode and did well in national performance horse events as a teenager. I qualifed for nationals 3 times and I drove a thousand miles with my horse by myself to the last one I went to...as a 16 year old. I've also ridden in "out back" match races that my folks and siblings didn't know about. Stuff your handicapping skills.
So Mr. PhD you think you can be an expert in your field, but I can't be an expert in my field? People have PhD's seeing how a shrimp operates on a treadmill. That takes a Doctorate too.

Wow that's a long way to drive as a 16 year old. I was in the military at 17, so **** your exploits.

I retired at 59 from playing horses. I don't have a perceived level of skill, it's a proven skill. Believe it or not, there are a handful of guys who can do what you couldn't do if you wanted to.
 
I real horsemen will watch a horse and look at his pedigree along with the color of the silks....Winking
I know plenty abou progeny. It's not who they're by, it who they can run by.
Otherwise, the Classic Sires would produce all the winners.

Taiba was a 1.7M yearling. The winner was a 30K Maiden claimer. So much for the bloodlines.
 
A college friend used to work at Akasarben when he was in high school. His dad ran it. He said he would hang out on the last turn and listen to the jockies. He said one time one of the jocks yelled, "get that SOB going I can't hold mine back much longer". That's why I'm ridiculing the "handicapper". I was walking around the race barns at a Nebraska track where we had a stud running and almost ran dead on in to a trainer wiring a crop with a battery.

You wouldn't get away with most of that stuff today, but horse racing can be pretty dirty.
This is elementary school stuff.

I've said multiple times, it's a dirty sport and if the best horse won all the time it wouldn't be worth playing.

Your example would be what I call "the human element."

Everything they did then, they do now, just with a lot more creativity.
 
I knew someone that had a horse running one Saturday. I was invited up to the “club” area that day. There was a Catholic Priest that was also invited to be with the group. The Priest gives me a hot tip before one of the races. I’m thinking this guy wouldn’t lie to me. I bet on the horse. The Priest didn’t know crap.

For the record, I’m not buying that someone on here made a living off of gambling on the ponies.

not the first professional gambler to be doubted on this board. just based off of his post, he clearly knows what he's talking about and his mind frame is exactly that of a pro.
 
Fun story from my mom.

My mom worked at Arlington Park when she was going to school at Northwestern. This was 1948. She worked a betting booth. To supplement her income, someone would come around before the ninth race and give her and her fellow employees a “tip” on a horse to bet on.

I have no idea how they controlled the bets, but the track had to have a system in place.


a buddy of mine was a teller at the track in Lincoln. You were free to print whatever bets you wanted for yourself, but at the end of the night, your drawer better be right. If not, you were on the hook. He told me one guy was given 24 hours to come up with the 4 figure sum he had lost on that night's races while working. Guess he had to call Daddy for the money.
 
I knew someone that had a horse running one Saturday. I was invited up to the “club” area that day. There was a Catholic Priest that was also invited to be with the group. The Priest gives me a hot tip before one of the races. I’m thinking this guy wouldn’t lie to me. I bet on the horse. The Priest didn’t know crap.

For the record, I’m not buying that someone on here made a living off of gambling on the ponies.
Actually I'm not Catholic or a priest, so I got that going for me.

The difference is, I have never touted a horse to anyone other than a family member.
 
I expect you will invite us freeboard guys to your wedding.

Ha!!! Very small wedding with a very exclusive guest list...our parameters were, you have to be of our blood or married to it, no aunts and or uncles either. Immediate fam only, no exceptions. Pretty small wedding. Ceramony will be lucky to last 10min.
 
not the first professional gambler to be doubted on this board. just based off of his post, he clearly knows what he's talking about and his mind frame is exactly that of a pro.
It's all in the perception of what one thinks a gambler might be.

I have respect for those that bet football for example. I did one time, it didn't pan out, so I stayed with what I was good at.

This thread started out with an innocent post of "Who you got?" I laid out the way the race COULD go, and likely trouble some horses would have just because of the size of the field.

I tried to draw it out in a couple other posts, yet, there's a lot of resistance from those who rightly do not share my interest. It's all good, it's what makes the world go 'round.

But, I don't like to be insulted from someone who knows nothing about how I operated for many years. I don't take criticism that personally, until it become personal.

We're all exchanging Opinions on an Opinion Forum. Those that participate can believe or not believe what I type. I fought the good fight, I won the good fight, and continue to enjoy the game, despite knowing all that can go wrong once the start begins.

I'll bore, or ignite, dingle a bit more. I'm a guy who counts strides on a horse from the Mile to the 1/8th mile pole and then can accurately project the shortening of stride length from the 1/8th pole to the finish.

I was an early adopter of "Run Ups." In other words, virtually every track has a different run up distance before they even begin to start the timer. Some tracks run up 110' before the start of the timer in a 6 furlong race, other tracks may use 85', 65', 45' etc. THOSE are statistical realities of determining who will or won't win the run to the first turn.

In turf races, I nationally charted the distance from the rail or the chute or the rail placement in turf races. Different lengths of races differ in terms of how far the run up is. It becomes a matter of geometry. It is not difficult to see which horse(s) will likely benefit from a rail trip while other are forced 2-3-4-5 wide on the turns. Ground loss in horse racing is critical.

I don't engage in guesswork. Find the horse, find the trainer intent, find the horse(s) that "should" get the best trip with minimal ground loss and you will find the horse(s) that will be there at the finish line.

It can be done. It has been done. I try to eliminate those that likely will suffer due to running farther in the race, and consider wagering on those who have the presumed advantage.
 
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not the first professional gambler to be doubted on this board. just based off of his post, he clearly knows what he's talking about and his mind frame is exactly that of a pro.
Thank you.

This will likely be my last post on the Kentucky Derby. Since you were nice enough to not dismiss the "possibility" I know what I'm talking about, I'll include this in the event it benefits you at some point.

Unlike most horse players, I don't just flip the page and not take information away from what just happened, and why some things may have happened the way they did during the race.

I use Trakus as one tool after a race, as it helps to clarify some things.
It's in use in 11 tracks in the US. For those unfamiliar, Trakus has a chip inserted into the saddle of each of the horses. It tracks a lot of things.

Such as: How far did each horse run near the rail, how many feet OFF THE RAIL did they average during the race, what horses PEAK SPEED during the race, what was their average speed, and how many feet in front or behind the winner they finished.

During the race, there were 5 more horses that ran a farther distance than the winner, and 14 who ran less distance than the winner.

There were 4 horses that ran closer to the rail for the entire race than the winner, it ranged from 7.6' off the rail to 12.8'.

As a point of reference, Epicenter was 20.7' off the rail on the average. The winner was 13.2' on the average. So, the ground gain around the entire mile track was 7' in favor of Rich Strike around the entire track, that's a big difference. The totality of the race will show Rich Strike running farther than Epicenter, but his average speed and his PEAK SPEED was far superior.

The fastest PEAK SPEED of 19 horses ranged from the slowest, Mo Donegal at 40.3mph, to the second fastest Summer Is Tomorrow at 42.3mph prior to his early collapse in the race. (With one exception - RIch Strike).

Epicenter's PEAK SPEED was 41.4mph. Rich Strike was 44.2. So at each horse's fastest speed Rich Strick was almost 3mph faster than Epicenter. Overall in the race, Rich Strike averaged 37.3mph which exceeded every horse in the race.

The actual distance each horse ran in the 1 1/4m race ranged from 6,771' by Pioneer of Medina to the shortest trip around the track was Messier at 6.682'. Epicenter ran 6,698' compared to Rich Strike at 6,756. SO Rich Strike ran 58 feet farther than Epicenter. This was compensated for by the large difference in each other's average speed and PEAK SPEED.

All but 4 horses ran a shorter distance than the winner.

What does this prove? Nothing.

It does prove I do my homework and I don't cut corners. There is information included that will likely result in my playing a horse or playing against a horse that came out of this race.

As we all know, it is a much easier task to handicap a horserace with the typical 10 or 12 horse field than 20 horses.

Sorry to include yet another long post. Those that aren't interested or were never interested are free to do or feel as they choose.

To suggest that someone is not capable of mastering this sport is to suggest other professionals are not capable of mastering their own chosen fields after 50 years of comprehensive study.
 
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I am hung like a horse. Where does that get me in this debate?


(I am surprised no one has mentioned this already - unless I just missed seeing it)
 
@itseasyas1-2-3 Looking back, was there any indication in the numbers that Rich Strike could run as fast as he did in the derby?
NO. The underlying issue is the horse drew in 36 hours before the race and not many people even handicapped the horse. But, on numbers, he did not fit, hence he was 80/1.

There is a very interesting statistics though. His dam (Gold Strike) ran a number 9 as a 2 year old then exploded to run a 0 at age 3 in her route race, so she may have been a slow developer that suddenly matured.

It also held true in her sprint effort as she went from a very slow 2 yo that ran a 17 to a 3 yo who ran a 5, which would be competitive in stakes races.

Typically, and with NO exceptions, no horse had ever won the Derby with a Speed FIgure of higher than 6 prior to the Derby, which was Mine That Bird who paid 100.00+, or Giacomo who ran a 5 prior to the Derby, and was a horse my entire family played that paid $ 105.00 to win.

Going into the Derby this horse's figures were, from the past leading up to Saturday: 24, 9, 14, 13 as a 2 year old. Then this year as a 3 yo 9, 10, 9 so the horse did not figure to be a factor. Or "potentially" a horse that could suck up for a real minor finish IF the speed stopped, which it did. Similar to MTB and Giacomo in 2005.

I haven't seen the post-Derby figures, but he would have run a new lifetime top, but almost every horse in the field "X"d which means they ran poorly compared to their normal performance. He had won a MCL race at Churchill last year by 17 lengths, but it was against 30K Maiden Claimers not Graded Stakes winners.

The other factor is the horse had ran on Polytrack the last 3 races and horse have been known to jump up in their first dirt start after Poly. Running on Polytrack is very hard on a horses behind, and sometimes on a switch to a more comfortable, accomodating surface like dirt, they tend to loosen up with workouts.

But, the only guys who I know who hit the race were those who top and bottom wheeled Epicenter, and one friend who went Zandon/all/all and all/Zandon/all, all/all/Zandon. In other words, in the trifecta he played Zandon with the entire field and would cash no mater where the horse finished as long as he was in the top 3. The tri paid 17K.

I was surprised as anyone when he came firing at the end. The Trakus numbers give a good explanation AFTER the race as to how it unfolded.

Rich Strike ran the final quarter in 25.3 which is slightly less than average, it appeared he was "flying" because others were decelerating more and backing up at while running slower due to chasing the insane early pace.

To me, the highlight was the jockey. Nice wife, little child, and he rides at a really minor track. He took home $ 180,000.00 for the ride. So good for that young family. Maybe, (I could check) more money than he had made in the last 4-5 years.

And it was a helluva ride, in fact, the trainer said the jockey had been racing and previously forcing the horse to go inside and split horses, so the horse did what he had been trained to do. The horse just didn't know he was not supposed to pass all these high priced, beautifully bred animals.
 
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Where does everyone see Nebraska racing headed with the passage of casino gaming? Bigger purses/more horses and the return of a full circuit from February through October? Fonner in the spring, Lincoln will have a new 7/8th mile track, and Columbus is building a full 1 mile track. Would love to see the sport take off here in the state.
 
Where does everyone see Nebraska racing headed with the passage of casino gaming? Bigger purses/more horses and the return of a full circuit from February through October? Fonner in the spring, Lincoln will have a new 7/8th mile track, and Columbus is building a full 1 mile track. Would love to see the sport take off here in the state.
I think I've already hijacked this thread, so I'll give my thoughts. First of all, I am very glad there will be casinos in Nebraska. Sadly, many people will lose more money than they can afford, but, it never made sense to have Nebraskan's drive across the bridge just to visit the casinos in Council Bluffs.

As far as racing, the 70's and 80's were the epitome of great racing in Nebraska. Then Hal Daub and his buddies got their way and made what was a great track in Omaha go away. At the time Ak-sar-ben was one of the top 5 tracks in the entire country. Great facilities, horses, trainers, atmosphere and food.

In my view, and its only my opinion, Lincoln has never been a good town for horse racing. Not that that is not subject to change in modern day.

Columbus with a mile track could/should really upgrade. Their Ag Park, (or whatever its named) was always a cheap track. It is always near the end of the racing season in Nebraska, and by that time, it was nothing but chalk.

Fonner Park has always had a strong local following even though it is low level racing. With the County and State Fair, its a pretty nice little venue, and even though its a early season meet and has weather issues, they continue to be the top track in Nebraska.

Depending on the success of the casinos, and how much money is generated for that track, as a horseplayer, I think it makes it almost unplayable. The same exact thing happened at Tampa Bay. Ten years ago it was the top track to wager at due to large fields, lots of longshots, and generally nice weather.

Then the purses really increased and it brought in trainers like Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott and other fairly big operations were shipping their 5th and 6th stringers there and winning lots of races. Those horses looked like such strong contenders in almost every race, they either forced you to use the Pletcher, Mott, etc horse or risk getting beat by perhaps the best horse in the race.

Most of the really good handicappers eventually almost quit playing the track altogether or shifted to Gulfstream or even up north to Delaware. In other words, the money that was wagered took a real hit. There are percentages of heavy hitters that will take the 4.00 winner, but the profitable ones will only do so on occassion.

It killed the payoffs, and has really hurt the longtime trainers and connections that made the track successful for the first few years. There will always be a race track or two that has the size and type of fields that will attrack guys who play real money. Any good player plays for value, and when that value goes away, so do those players. Even when you play a race you're having to settle for a discounted return.

With simulcasting, and multiple betting sites, playing horses has never been easier. You wager from your living room, watch the race as it happens, and have almost immediate access to your winnings. No parking, no fighting the traffic, no standing in line to wager, no expensive beer, etc.

The big days, Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown races, Breeders Cup, Dubai are all fun days to attend and put up with all the little nuisances that a lot of guys won't do on a daily basis.

So, to shed light on what the future of racing holds in Nebraska, I really don't know. The takeout for the home track for live racing is very good for that track, but the simulcasting money is only slightly more than a convenience for the local betters when the host track is not racing.

The larger tracks are constantly asking for more money to telecast their signal, when that happens the host site loses yet more money.

As primarily a simulcast player, the Nebraska circuit doesn't really affect me. But, I root for the smaller guys who work their asses off just to eke out a living and if the purse structure becomes much better, and they can inject more money into their wallets, its a really good thing overall.

I hope it works out for lots of folks, including additional tellers, vendors, waiters and waitresses. It's a tough grind for those folks, and they are involved in a business they love, in fact, in does get in your blood.

Again, sorry for the long post.
 
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Ha!!! Very small wedding with a very exclusive guest list...our parameters were, you have to be of our blood or married to it, no aunts and or uncles either. Immediate fam only, no exceptions. Pretty small wedding. Ceramony will be lucky to last 10min.
does she get a head start...?
 
not the first professional gambler to be doubted on this board. just based off of his post, he clearly knows what he's talking about and his mind frame is exactly that of a pro.
This will be a final recap of the race now that the numbers are out.

Of the 20 horses in the race, only 2, Rich Strike and Barber Road ran what is called a new TOP.

3 horses paired their previous TOP.

5 horses ran was is called OFF.

10 horses "X'd".

To put each horse in perspective, a new TOP wouid be like a runner who has previously ran the 400 meters in 47.9, 48.1 and 48.0. On the day of his new best, he ran a 47.5.

Those that paired for example, had run 3 races that averaged 48.3 and on race day, once again ran a 48.3.

Those that ran Off had previously ran an average of 48.2 yet today they all ran 48.6.

The "X" horses went from previous 48.0 and today ran 50 to 52 flat. In other words, very poor races based on their own personal abilities.

In the last 10 Derbies, Rich Strike "could" have won 3, but would have been competitive in all but 2. American Pharoah and Orb would have soundly beaten Rich Strike despite his overall excellent race.

The two comparisons moving into the Preakness that Rich Strike tends to mimic are Giacomo ($ 100.00+ winner) and Mine That Bird ($ 100.00 winner.)

Both had large jump-ups in the Derby, both ran new TOPS, in the Derby and were able to duplicate that same number 2 weeks later in the Preakness. Both horses were beaten in the Preakness, as Giacomo ran 3rd and Mine That Bird ran 2nd.

I am not touting Rich Strike in the Preakness, nor will I ever tout a horse on this forum. I'm just saying that historically, similar type long shot winners who ran really big races in the Derby were able to duplicate that effort 2 weeks later in the Preakness.

During the running of the race, Rich Strike would be considered a sustained closer. In other words, all of his fractions were very similar. He went out in 50 seconds and came home in 49 seconds. This is based on the first half mile and the last half mile.

He just ran kind of at the same pace the entire race. Like a 400 meter runner going the first 200 meters in 24 seconds and the second 200 meters in 24 seconds. There were no sudden spurts, it was just steady all the way around.

That's all folks.
 
Rich Strike not running in the Preakness. I hate when the derby winner doesn't even run.
 
Rich Strike not running in the Preakness. I hate when the derby winner doesn't even run.

Hasn't happened by choice since 1985 when Spend A Buck won the Derby. Then again, he had a $2M reasons why (taken from Wiki):

Earlier in the season, Spend a Buck had won two races at the newly reopened Garden State Park Racetrack in Cherry Hill, New Jersey: the Cherry Hill Mile Stakes on April 6 and the Garden State Stakes on April 20. Before the season began, Garden State Park owner Robert Brennan had put up a $2-million bonus to the horse that won the two April preparatory races, the Kentucky Derby, and the May 27 Jersey Derby, Garden State's signature race.

Spend a Buck's owner, Dennis Diaz, opted to skip the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes and thus trade Spend a Buck's chance to win the Triple Crown for a shot at the bonus.


To avoid such a 'catastrophe' from happening again, the Triple Crown tracks banded together in 1987 to create a $5M bonus if a horse were to win all 3 races.

That has since gone away as the glitz, glam, definitely the $$, and glory of the Triple Crown has certainly been enough.

Since 1985, only 2 KD winner's missed the Preakness. Country Road in 2019 and Grindstone in 1996. Both became ill or injured within days after their Kentucky Derby victory and never raced again.

This is really unprecedented for the connections of Rich Strike to hold true to their previous plan of running in the Kentucky Derby/Belmont if given the chance.
 
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