UPDATED 5/17: 25% Of The Season Left

[coolonetoo]

OK, technically, it's slightly more than 25% because the SDSU game was canceled. But there are 14 games left in the regular season. Can this team still make it a successful season? I think we can all agree the only way to do so is to make a regional. That shouldn't be a high bar for a team that started the year in the top 25. There are two paths:

1. Win the conference tournament. The new, 12-team format should make it even more of a home field advantage for Nebraska because the game times will be set in advance at the start of the week. And, if the Big Ten is smart, it will schedule Nebraska's two midweek games in the evening to maximize attendance. Qualifying for the tournament is a prerequisite to winning it, however, and there is work to be done with the current position a three-way tie for 12th. Winning every remaining series 2-1 (or averaging out to that) will put the final record at 15-15 which should comfortably make the field. Anything better than that is gravy. All remaining Big Ten opponents are currently 10th or worse in the standings, and the two road series are against the 15th and 16th place teams. Not making the tournament would be huge failure.

2. Go on a serious tear and get an at-large bid. I'm no RPI expert but I think it's possible. A sub-50 RPI would probably be required, which means improving it 30-ish points over five weeks. The schedule sets up OK for it. The two series against the worst RPI teams remaining, Maryland and Purdue (both 140+), are on the road. All other games are at home against teams with 40-80 RPIs. Pulling it off will probably require winning 11+ of the 14--including beating K-State--and then winning 2-3 games in Omaha. But it might just be enough.

It starts tomorrow. Winning the Terps series is critical.

 

[sklarbodds]

To get #2 I legit think we'd have to win 13 of the 14...and a couple in the tournament

 

[RobsterMobster]

Is it doable? Yes it is. Does this team have what it takes to do it? They haven’t proved it at all this season other than a few top 25 wins. I 100% agree not making a regional with what this team had returning would be a huge failure.

I’m not sure what change was made on offense in the offseason but whatever it was it needs to be changed back. We are last in the league in OBP.

As far as pitching? Maybe we need to accept this is a retirement job for Childress and nothing more. We are 10th in the league in ERA.

When we hit we can’t pitch and when we pitch we can’t hit. Then when we do a little of both we can’t run bases.

 

[sklarbodds]

When we hit we can’t pitch and when we pitch we can’t hit.

Yeah but other than that we're great 😜

 

[coolonetoo]

After the series win at Maryland:

1. Nebraska is now in a four-way tie for 10th place at 9-12 with Michigan State, Northwestern and Rutgers. And only two games behind 7th place Michigan, who comes to Lincoln in two weeks. Getting to .500 or better in league play will do the trick.

2. With only a couple of games still being played Sunday evening, Nebraska's RPI is up about 10 places since Friday to 68. Progress.

 

[coolonetoo]

I’m not sure what change was made on offense in the offseason but whatever it was it needs to be changed back. We are last in the league in OBP.

This team was definitely on the struggle bus offensively to start the year, but since returning from California, is averaging 7.5 runs per game (10 in conference play!) and has only scored less than 5 twice in 21 games. A significant improvement over the 5.3 RPG prior to that. The bats have been pretty consistent the last month. Let's hope that continues.

 

[coolonetoo]

The Big Ten isn't smart. Game times are already set based on seeding: https://bigten.org/base/tournament/

Worst case scenarios are the #7 or #11 seeds with 10:00am start times for both games. Best case scenario is #8 seed with two 6:00pm games. Next best is #10 with 2:00pm/6:00pm.

 

[coolonetoo]

2. Last night’s stirring comeback didn’t affect RPI much. It’s up slightly to 67. It’s best to win, though!

It’s worth noting that Nebraska has played 20 games against teams projected by d1baseball.com to make the NCAA tournament field. And 9 of them were against teams projected to host.

 

[coolonetoo]

1. After the weekend's results, Nebraska is in sole possession of 11th place with a magic number of five to make the tournament. Looking at the schedules of the next few teams in the standings, three wins should be enough to clinch it and even two might do it. We can theoretically be as high as the #4 seed by sweeping the last two series and getting a lot of help elsewhere, or out of the field altogether by bombing the last six games. Best guess: Winning, but not sweeping, the last two series, probably lands us in the 8-10 range.

2. RPI is now at 64, a 14-place improvement in 7 games. The RPIs of the last seven teams on the schedule are higher that the previous seven, so perhaps another 5-2 stretch will move it near 50 with opportunity to improve it more in Omaha.

Bottom line: Every remaining game is critical.

 

[coolonetoo]

2. Well, losing to Creighton dropped the RPI 5 places to 69. Would an 8-game win streak (which would mean making it to at least the semifinals in Omaha) improve it by 20+ places? Maybe.

 

[sklarbodds]

2. Well, losing to Creighton dropped the RPI 5 places to 69. Would an 8-game win streak (which would mean making it to at least the semifinals in Omaha) improve it by 20+ places? Maybe.

It'd be a long shot I think. But I wouldn't hate it.

 

[RobsterMobster]

It'd be a long shot I think. But I wouldn't hate it.

The Creighton game was a summation of he season. Give up runs due to dumb mistakes and find a way to lose.

 

[coolonetoo]

1. With one weekend left, Nebraska needs one win to clinch a berth in the Big Ten Tournament. I think. With one win, it's possible to end in a tie with one, two, or three other teams. I'm pretty sure NU wouldn't be left out of the field in any of the scenarios because of head-to-head series wins against three of the five teams involved. The sweet spot--the #8 seed--is within reach. If Nebraska wins two against Purdue, it gets the #8 seed in a two-way tie with Penn State and a three-way tie with Penn State and Indiana. USC sweeping Washington would complicate things.

2. It's over. A 7-4 record since the start of this thread has put the RPI at around 70. It's conference tourney champs or bust.

 

[RobsterMobster]

Yep, this team may go down as one of the most disappointing in the Bolt era unless they somehow win the Big Ten Tourney to make it a moot point.

 

[coolonetoo]

With Michigan State and Maryland both losing, Nebraska has clinched a berth in the Big 10 Tournament. Rutgers is a problem. Nebraska wins a 2-team tie for seeding with Penn State or Rutgers but not a 3-team tie with both.

 

[coolonetoo]

I acknowledge I'm a complete sicko. With one game to go:

Avoiding the dreaded #7 and #11 seeds: I can't find a scenario where Nebraska is the #7 seed. Nebraska will be the #11 or #12 seed if it loses to Purdue today. It would only avoid #11 in that case if Northwestern loses to UCLA (likely) and Illinois loses to Ohio State (unlikely). So we need a win today to ensure avoiding playing two 10:00am games.

Getting the coveted #8 seed: I can only find two scenarios where Nebraska can get the #8 seed and two 6:00pm games.
1. A 4-way tie with Michigan, Illinois and Penn State at 15-15 AND Nebraska finishing AHEAD of Michigan in RPI. The tie seems a solid possibility, but would a Nebraska road win over Purdue and a Michigan home loss to Indiana let Nebraska close the current three-place RPI gap? I think it would.
2. A 5-way tie with Michigan, Illinois, Penn State and Rutgers at 15-15 AND Nebraska fishing BEHIND Michigan in RPI. This is less likely and, as mentioned above, the Michigan tiebreaker probably wouldn't work out.

Either way, a win today is needed. Seeding aside, limping into the tourney with a two-game losing streak to Purdue (with one being a two-out 9th inning walk-off homer) is not the way to end the regular season. Finishing with five straight series wins is.

 

[coolonetoo]

I'm happy to report a math error. If Nebraska holds on vs. Purdue it will be tied for 8th with Penn State and Rutgers at 15-15. Nebraska should win the tiebreaker for the #8 seed based on having a better RPI than Penn State.

 

[coolonetoo]

It’s unofficial until the RPI is finalized for today, but Nebraska has the #8 seed and will play the #12 seed Tuesday evening at 6:00pm. If Northwestern comes back against UCLA today, the Wildcats will be the opponent. Otherwise, it will be Michigan State.

Nebraska MUST win Tuesday to stay alive in the tournament. Only the top 4 seeds can advance at 1-1.

Nebraska will play #1 seed Oregon Friday at 6:00pm. That will be quite an evening if it’s for a spot in the semifinals.

 

[sklarbodds]

It’s unofficial until the RPI is finalized for today, but Nebraska has the #8 seed and will play the #12 seed Tuesday evening at 6:00pm. If Northwestern comes back against UCLA today, the Wildcats will be the opponent. Otherwise, it will be Michigan State.

Nebraska MUST win Tuesday to stay alive in the tournament. Only the top 4 seeds can advance at 1-1.

Nebraska will play #1 seed Oregon Friday at 6:00pm. That will be quite an evening if it’s for a spot in the semifinals.

If the top 4 seeds go 0-2 wouldn't a 1-1 have a shot?

 

[coolonetoo]

If the top 4 seeds go 0-2 wouldn't a 1-1 have a shot?

No. It's four pools of three teams. In each pool, the three teams play each other and if a team goes 2-0 it wins the pool and advances to the semifinals. If all three teams go 1-1, the highest seeded team (a top 4 seed) advances. If all 4 top seeds go 0-2 that means there were 4 other teams that went 2-0 that all won their pools.

 

[RobsterMobster]

@coolonetoo you are the hero we need but don’t deserve.

 

[RobsterMobster]

So if we beat Oregon, then beat Penn State, and then lose to a UCLA, is there a chance our RPI goes up enough for an at large? Or has that ship likely sailed unless we win the whole thing?

 

[sklarbodds]

We're currently at 60-62 range. You can sneak in to the dance in the 50s, but it's rare I think.

Beating Oregon (#14 RPI) would definitely help, but PSU (#78) would not help as much as if we had USC (#44).

I'm skeptical. UCLA is #13.

USC would have been another Q1 win and take our record (adding Oregon and USC and a loss to UCLA) to 8-12 which is decent. Our Q2 is not good tho at 2-5 currently (3-5 if we beat PSU).

 

[coolonetoo]

Beating Oregon and Penn State will definitely move the RPI into the 50s. How high could it go? TBD.

I will say that 2025 Nebraska could be a team to sneak in as an at-large with a 50-ish RPI because of its performance in “peak” games. Wins against Vanderbilt (currently #1 in the RPI), Oregon State (x2, #6), Oregon (#14) and Kansas (#22) say more to the committee to the positive side than slip-ups against UNO and Northwestern do to the negative side. But they all affect the RPI.

It sure would have been nice to have won at least one at UCLA and picked up one or two other wins somewhere along the way. We would be in a much better position RPI-wise. But the hallmark of this team has been inconsistency so it’s no surprise.

 

[sklarbodds]

Beating Oregon and Penn State will definitely move the RPI into the 50s. How high could it go? TBD.

I will say that 2025 Nebraska could be a team to sneak in as an at-large with a 50-ish RPI because of its performance in “peak” games. Wins against Vanderbilt (currently #1 in the RPI), Oregon State (x2, #6), Oregon (#14) and Kansas (#22) say more to the committee to the positive side than slip-ups against UNO and Northwestern do to the negative side. But they all affect the RPI.

It sure would have been nice to have won at least one at UCLA and picked up one or two other wins somewhere along the way. We would be in a much better position RPI-wise. But the hallmark of this team has been inconsistency so it’s no surprise.

I don't disagree that our number stack up If we win the next two, but it's pretty rare that a team goes from not even being in the last four out to being considered.

 

[saluno22]

I don't disagree that our number stack up If we win the next two, but it's pretty rare that a team goes from not even being in the last four out to being considered.

 

[coolonetoo]

After a 3-0 start to the tournament, RPI sits at 55. I wouldn’t think a “neutral” site loss to UCLA would ding it much.

An 11-3 finish to the regular season—instead of the 9-5 that happened—just might have pushed it under 50 and put NU in solid position for an at-large berth. Blown opportunities against Minnesota and Purdue were killers.

 

[coolonetoo]

Now the interest in RPI changes. It’s at 51. Can we get a 3 seed? Put another way, are we better than 16 other auto-bid winners from one-bid conferences? I say yes.

 

[coolonetoo]

Also, we are a “bid thief.” Bad news for Iowa and Texas A&M. Not sorry.

 

[sklarbodds]

Now the interest in RPI changes. It’s at 51. Can we get a 3 seed? Put another way, are we better than 16 other auto-bid winners from one-bid conferences? I say yes.

I would say absolutely yes. Our resume is borderline at large worthy, especially with the win over UCLA