Totals for the game: 43.5
- Thread starter SuperBigFan
- Start date
The lower the total, the more confident I get that Nebraska plus the points is the bet. For Minnesota to cover the spread and have the total at 43, we are talking about 24-16 type game. Minnesota has some young players on the DL and LB. I think Nebraska is going to put up at least 21 points.
But for Minnesota to cover they would have to win by more than 7.
No longer… Took the Over at 43 last night..
also took the under at 45 for the Herky /Utah St game.
19.5 as of right now, on my site.
I don't have the Kemp prop but if that pops up I LOVE it.
I think MU scores at least 30 points. Not sure on NU!
I tried also, but I have 2 other forum members who private message me all the time. I probably spent 2 hours yesterday stumbling around and never could make it work. Doesn't seem like it should be that hard.
I have some really neat research I've done for college football and wanted to pass it along without bothering the entire room.
Hey can you send me over your CHATGPT cheat sheet when you get a chance? THX in advance.
Nebraska puts up 30+ so over will probably hit
I think you're right kong. Both of them are Gold Members and they contacted me, so that may explain it. Damn.
Obviously more than just myself would like to see what you’ve put together
considering the daily drivel on this board I wouldn’t be too concerned with being bothersome
Might be a fun springboard into a season-long CFB gambling thread. I’d happily post my picks and reasoning
So way more points than last year even though they lost their awesome rb? Solid logic teach
It's kind of my horseplayer mentality. At the track, if you happen to give a horse to a couple of the wrong guys, next thing you know, they pound the odds down where the horse would become unbettable for me. I have a distinct way of constructing my wagers, so I don't tend to deviate.
Now football, of course, is a different animal, and I'm a newbie at it, but I do know how to gamble, and I have a good handle on probable odds. I'm not ready to do the even money ROI type thing, save for the small wager I made on NU for tomorrow night.
To make a long story short, I'm developing a similar strategy to bet college football that I've used successfully for decades, and I think I can make it work. I'm gonna give it a test run in a week or so.
I'm likely gonna bet $ 100.00 six (6) team parlays. Maybe drop down to a 5 teamer or even a 4 teamer some weeks. Depends on if I can match teams enough near 100% win percentage into the wager. If it's an 80% play, I'll probably pass or make a token bet.
A 6 teamer pays 4,700.00 net, a 5 teamer pays 2,400.00 net, and a 4 teamer pays 1,100.00 net. So at 100.00 a week for 12 weeks says if I hit even one 4 team parlay it funds the entire year.
In my experiment, if I can't hit 1 of 12 for 8.00% then I'm playing the wrong game, and I deserve to get my ass kicked.
I know a lot of the guys on here are really good at betting football, and I'm trying to bring a new angle for some to consider to perhaps really beef up their winnings.
Yet, I ALWAYS feel whoever is using a particular method to win at any gambling event, I'm hesitant to try to convince them to change. Trust me, I play horses my way, and no one would convince me to do it different, so I get that angle of it. It's the same way I NEVER tell anyone how to invest their money. I just tell them what I do and if they're successful to continue their way.
Believe it or not, I really respect guys who gamble at any type sport, and can take a legitimate profit home. Its not easy or everyone would be doing it.
Once I'm ready in a couple weeks to make a wager, I will post it on Friday and give my rationale. If I'm playing a multiple team parlay there's going to be a lot of real provable research involved and I do expect to win. I also expect to have a built in hedge as the last game (which will be a West Coast game) approaches, to make a profit regardless.
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I hit 3 $100 +2000+ golf winners this summer, so I am loaded for bear this football season
With all due respect, that's why I wanted to private message with you, because I think our wagering strategies may be similar just based on seeing what you're posted about football wagering in the last 2 years.
For the hell of it, I'm thinking of making a 50.00 three (3) teamer each week with the top selection from among yourself, scarletred and Tuco. It wouldn't be any over/under action, just point spreads. I'd call it the Husker Trio.
Love it!!
I’m tempted to make Toledo +9.5 my top pick this weekend. Will absolutely post prior to Saturday
Betting only parlays instead of straight wagers is not mathematically sound
I have to finalize my wagering strategy, but I will start posting when I find the right parlay.
To my earlier point on my likely playing a 3 team parlay each week from the pics among kong, scarlet and Tuco, IF, and I say IF, they get on a roll, it would be sweet to see others on the board be able to piggyback those guys. See what I mean?
After all, they have mostly proven to hit at a fairly high percentage, whereas I'm more in the experimental stage. And I hate to see guys lose money, that maybe some of them can't afford to lose.
Let's face it, we're all hoping the Huskers have a good year, and making a few bucks along the way could make it even better.
I have to do one horseracing joke.
I ran into a guy at the track the other day and asked him how he was doing? He said, "Not bad, I hope I break even today, because I really need the money."
It is a shit ton of fun and every gambler knows that you don't talk about the 15 parlays you lost...you talk about the ones that ALMOST hit
I love doing early game, afternoon game and evening game parlay.
I get it cubsker, and I'm not flipping you crap here, just giving my viewpoint.
The world is full of people who have people telling them it can't be done, until they start doing it over an over.
I believe in the law of large numbers, that's why I'll experiment with 4, 5, 6 team parlays. A 6 team parlay may work its way into a 5 team parlay, a 5 teamer into a 4 teamer, etc. I love the exercise. There will be weeks when a 5 or 6 teamer isn't showing up as a high enough percentage play.
I never force a wager, its either there or its not. That's why I do my own research, because I know its legit, and multiple factors are taken into account.
I've made a fortune betting superfectas, pentas, and Pick Sixes in my career.
I proved I can pick the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers in a 12 horse field.
I'm kind of wired that way. I certainly don't expect anyone to follow my methodology.
Most books that have been written on gambling are full of shit. Its just a bunch of recycled beliefs among
guys who did it every once in a blue moon, and they think they know jack shit.
They think they can bet the 2/1 shot on the board and that makes them an expert. Piss, all you gotta do is look at the tote board, and yet, its only right 36% of the time at every track for decades. 64% of the time, that 2/1 shot loses.
I developed my own methodology and ignored their so-called expert opinions.
In my opinion, getting even money on a football game is not mathematically sound. You realize how good you have to be to make a legitimate, meaningful profit?
Most guys have not made enough wagers in their lives to have developed a true wagering strategy. That all starts with standard plays. That's not a knock on anybody, I just happen to come from a background where playing long odds is where I'm good.
cubsker, I'm just trying to have some fun while I test run my wagering strategy.
The money either way won't make or break me. But, I also don't go to the track to bet $ 2.00 to show either.
I've always found the amount of money I win is commensurate with the amount of legitimate research I do.
All numbers can be counted, but not all numbers count.
Best of luck this year with your wagering cubsker!!
The world is built by men who do things that everyone says can't be done. True that?It is a shit ton of fun and every gambler knows that you don't talk about the 15 parlays you lost...you talk about the ones that ALMOST hit
I love doing early game, afternoon game and evening game parlay.
My buddy did very well using that exact strategy SuperBigFan. The only parlay I ever bet was Penn St, NU, and USC. Three powerful teams from 3 different time zones.It is a shit ton of fun and every gambler knows that you don't talk about the 15 parlays you lost...you talk about the ones that ALMOST hit
I love doing early game, afternoon game and evening game parlay.
LOL. 10-12 more points. Wow the extreme jump huh?
Experienced QB, solid receiving corp, infusion of portal talent, solid OL, playing at home. Vs an inexperienced team, with a new system, coach, QB, lack of receiving talent, questionable OL, even more questionable DL(especially depth wise), average at best LB corp. And and inexperienced DC running a defense that is unproven in the Big 10.
Pretty good logic. 32-17. Gophers
Oh and remember MU scored 20 second half points last season against us when Kaliakmanis stepped in.
Now do the logic on scoring exactly 32 points
5 TDs and 3 missed PATs?
2 TDs and 6 FGs?
4 TDs, 2 missed PATs and 2 FGs?
This number brings your credibility into question
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