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Things that help

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NorthwoodHusker

First Team All-Big Ten
Jun 20, 2019
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This thread is dedicated to things that will help us going forwards as we navigate these unknown waters in this pandemic
They can be any new activity or item, using best safe practices, new testing, what that testing will do, better understanding of the virus for our use etc.

No politics,period!

My contribution to start it off
https://time.com/5142211/uv-light-kills-flu-virus/
Now, Brenner and his colleagues have show that UVC light can effectively kill airborne influenza. In their new study, aerosolized particles of the H1N1 seasonal flu virus were released into a test chamber and exposed to very low doses of far-UVC light. The light inactivated the viruses with about the same efficiency as conventional germicidal UV light, while a control group of bacteria not exposed to light remained active.

These work, and are used in cleansing hospital areas, but in this form, can be a daily usage virus free area.
 
We will be seeing the R0, or R naught, or, infectious rate numbers change as we get more testing using the serology tests, or, the tests that test for antibodies, which we are finding are in very high numbers where people have already had the virus, but no symptoms.
The R0 rate is important, as it defines just how many people an infected person likely transmitted the disease to another person,or persons.
The modeling and death rates are done using this number, but as it changes, so too does our modeling and the death rates.
Many models started at a R0 at around two, it's currently thought the models may need to use a higher 5.3 R0 number, reducing the number of likely infections and death rate, which makes since, if more people are already infected than thought.
 
How Many People Get Sick with Flu Every Year?
A 2018 CDC study published in Clinical Infectious Diseasesexternal icon looked at the percentage of the U.S. population who were sickened by flu using two different methods and compared the findings. Both methods had similar findings, which suggested that on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from flu each season, with a range of between 3% and 11%, depending on the season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm
Given that 8% people get the common flu each year in the US, and the common flu R0 is around 1.3, if the R0 is possibly 5 for the new virus, likely 32% of the population will be infected in a season.

Going to the serology tests, those numbers are slightly lower than 32% , but the season isn't finished, plus, those tests didn't include known patients who are known to have had the virus.
This means we were likely so very far off our early thoughts on how infectious this is, and the fact it was new, we learned to place people on their stomaches, for instance, it saved many lives, or, ventilators may cause more harm in certain patients than help, also saving lives.
Also, because of its infectious rates, we held many people at home, with no or very little medical helps, until they either rode it out, or got sick enough to have to go to hospital.
This too ,people died.

So, as we get on top of this, likely our entire mindset will change. Just like anything else.
 
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There are many shadows due to inconsistent implementations. You can easily choose what you want to enrich your personal story. You can't repeat the same idea over and over again to make the truth.
 
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coro...ows-hundreds-of-thousands-l-a-county-infected

Continuing to show death rate around flu level.
For those who don't understand, this virus infects at over four times the rate a normal flu does, it's possible that it really isn't that infectious, but people having no symptoms infect many more than those with the common flu and symptoms are usually home in bed.

So, the potential of creating large numbers all at once is there, to overwhelm our med resources.
Other than that, we know who it kills by and large,aged,morbidities mostly.
SARs was the opposite, killed the young, where the older folks had remnants of a previous corona virus that hit around sixty years ago,and they had antibody
 
I don’t know what the answers are.... what I do know as someone who is battling it right now is that you don’t want it. You can be a tough guy like me and not wear a mask and just wash your hands a lot and do whatever you please as you think you’re too young or healthy to have it affect you. But if you get it and it causes you to have symptoms, I can promise you’ll wish you didn’t have it. I don’t believe anyone in my house will have life threatening consequences, but so far it is very miserable. Like a flu that won’t go away. Just constantly there. I’m in my mid thirties and pretty healthy. Am I on my death bed, no. Am I on a bed feeling like absolute garbage nearly two weeks in..yes. Take precautions, I’m not saying don’t go out if you need to. Just be smart about it. You don’t want to be the one that spreads to someone else who’s body can’t handle it. Just my two cents.
 
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Thanks for sharing mortdyer, hope you get better a soon as possible..

Going to play golf for the first time today.. Other than that I just go to the grocery store and get take out and always wipe stuff off as much as possible and use clorox wipes when I take off my gloves and wipe down my stirring wheel and metal door knobs at home...
And I keep my 93 year old father at home, he just goes for short walks..
 
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mortdyer said:
I don’t know what the answers are.... what I do know as someone who is battling it right now is that you don’t want it. You can be a tough guy like me and not wear a mask and just wash your hands a lot and do whatever you please as you think you’re too young or healthy to have it affect you. But if you get it and it causes you to have symptoms, I can promise you’ll wish you didn’t have it. I don’t believe anyone in my house will have life threatening consequences, but so far it is very miserable. Like a flu that won’t go away. Just constantly there. I’m in my mid thirties and pretty healthy. Am I on my death bed, no. Am I on a bed feeling like absolute garbage nearly two weeks in..yes. Take precautions, I’m not saying don’t go out if you need to. Just be smart about it. You don’t want to be the one that spreads to someone else who’s body can’t handle it. Just my two cents.
Click to expand...
Hope you get better, praying for you and all of us. Take good cares, hope it's out of you soon.
 
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https://www.mediaite.com/news/white...roberts-weve-all-been-vaccinated-around-here/

this is as close to must-watch as it gets. among the quotes from an NYT photographer to a Fox News correspondent picked up by a hot mic at the white house & distributed by an NBC affiliate:

"we've all been vaccinated around here" (joke?)
"take off your mask, case fatality rate is .1 to .3"
"LA-USC did a study finding while CA reported 7k cases it's really more like 221k-442k"
 
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Studies like this done by USC are helpful:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-stud...-infections-but-are-they-right-161418566.html

Which are imperfect, but line up with this study performed by Stanford in Santa Clara

https://www.yahoo.com/news/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-far-012427358.html

and this small snapshot done in Boston by Massachusetts General Hospital

https://www.yahoo.com/news/test-200-people-just-outside-144732703.html

This thing has been around longer than the mid-Feb timetable.
 
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gw2kpro said:
Studies like this done by USC are helpful:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-stud...-infections-but-are-they-right-161418566.html

Which are imperfect, but line up with this study performed by Stanford in Santa Clara

https://www.yahoo.com/news/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-far-012427358.html

and this small snapshot done in Boston by Massachusetts General Hospital

https://www.yahoo.com/news/test-200-people-just-outside-144732703.html

This thing has been around longer than the mid-Feb timetable.
Click to expand...

100%. I think that is the biggest thing everyone is getting wrong. This thing was here wayyyyyy earlier than we think. Between that and saying the death rate is 5% are just fallacies that continue to be pushed by the media.
 
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You have to do the science, findings leading to numbers.
If you see this isn't being done, it's simply not real.

We're finding out more and more, hoping soon the remdisiver? studies start popping up, as well as those chloroquine ones.
Hard to understand all effects here. Every statistic we read is anywheres from a week old to a month.
A week is usually considered the amount of time before someone shows symptoms. Two weeks is usually a quarantine time, so,potentially, one week in, you show symptoms, then three plus weeks of symptoms, then two weeks before declared virus free.
Potentially six weeks from infection to virus free, with varying numbers applied in most models for certain points from initial infection.

The serolgy testing is free from all of that, it's after the fact, where we can set some wise decisions in actions to fight back. Like getting our lives back.
 
If you never had symptoms, that six week window may not apply, hopefully, they are tracing those who are asymptomatic
 
For every one poor person who has symptoms,which have been analyzed,dissected,stories told, worst yet, caskets in lines, there are 25 to 85 people that never had a clue they already had had the virus.

This is going to lead to an awfully skew our points of view.

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/reports-suggest-coronavirus-symptoms-70235831

Even in this story, they say this

The head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 25% of infected people might not have symptoms. The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, thinks it may be as high as 60% to 70% among military personnel.

None of these numbers can be fully trusted because they’re based on flawed and inadequate testing, said Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard’s School of Public Health.

Collectively, though, they suggest “we have just been off the mark by huge, huge numbers” for estimating total infections, he said.



This by itself falls woefully short of the huge tests that have already been done, fda approved, and accuracy is way beyond the quoted 'flawed or inaccurate testing"

This story fails to mention that its not 25% or more of infected people, its 25 to 85 times more of infected people that we know of.
 
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dinglefritz said:
Stay at home orders are over kill. Sure they work but IF people follow the rules there's no reason to lock people in their homes.
Click to expand...
If that santa clara numbers work out, its in herd effect territory already.
I think theres 112 thousand in that county, one thousand known cases at the time, at 55 to 85 times the known numbers, up to 85,000 of the 112,000 had already been infected.
 
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Outside of New York, it's mostly been a Nursing Home issue. Shutting down the economy for a virus that kills almost nobody below retirement age doesn't make sense. Whereas 80% of H1N1 deaths were people below 65, and nothing was shut-down.
 
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Just think, you've volunteered to get a serology test, and you haven't been sick, yet, it comes out positive for the antibody!
It'd be like winning the lotto!
 
I'm hoping that everyone can be tested eventually. I think it will be surprising how large the number of people whom had it and didn't know it.

Hoping we can find a way to keep people safe.
 
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Looks like all those people jerking off to hydroxychloroquine may have to find a new solution.
Remdesivir getting some positive buzz. May know a lot better in a week or two.
 
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We are a long way from having a trustworthy serology test system in place. Numbers can't be trusted for some time.
Won't stop some people from shoving them down our throat though. Like posting the same thing 50 times a day will change anything.
 
CDC guy says a second wave next winter at the same time as flu season could be even worse than the first wave.
We should be able to handle it IF people did simple things like wear masks or get flu shots, etc. Guess we will have to see.
 
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