I don't disagree that being favored = 100% likely to win. I was simply stating that games where we are favored by 20 points would probably be 95% likely to win. Games where they are 3 or less, would be closer to 50%.
There's no excuse for Neb
- Thread starter MichiganBaller
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I think it's important to look at our weaknesses in that light.. if there was any team that was prolific at the passing game, while being great at rush defense, well they are going to have a good shot at beating us.
I would suggests that a team with a good defense, good offense and strong special teams will be tough to beat.
Northwestern is always an enigma. They can lose games early and then go on a winning streak where they knock off some very good teams. Going 7-0 is certainly a goal to try to achieve and Nebraska could certainly do that but things would have to fall in place. Kirk Ferentz at Iowa one year said that Iowa's record could have easily been 7-5 instead of 11-1 if it were not for 4 or 5 plays or calls that went Iowa's way.
I like the emphasis on what did not go well against Fresno State. The blocked punt (if it happens again) or the unsportsmanlike penalty that stopped a drive could be the difference in winning or losing a game. I am a glass half full type of guy as well as others on this board but winning the first 7 games I believe would be quite an accomplishment for this team.
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there is a very good excuse ... math
if you assign the following probabilities of winning each individual game
Fresno 99%
Wyoming 99%
Oregon 60%
NW 75%
Illinois 80%
Indiana 75%
Purdue 85%
the probability of being 7-0 is 22%
Because it was damned funny???? I still use that line.I'm still trying to figure out this one important question....why do I still laugh every single time someone posts this silly reference?Every. Single. Time.
Purdue has Ross Els as their DC. You clearly did not factor that into your 85% probability.
Whatever.....lets just prepare and win game 2.
I remember reading that story previously. Good stuff.
For the record, I think the odds of beating Northwestern MAY be the worst of our FIRST 7 games. I still stand by that. I may be wrong but I don't think it's as laughable of an assumption as you suggest. If we use point spreads as our guide I think Nebraska's spread v Northwestern will be close to thr spread v Oregon.
It might be. I think a lot of us including the bookies are waiting to see how we play against Oregon. Northwestern should be a tough game but we should win. As I've said a few times I went to the Northwestern game last year and we were totally sleep walking the whole game. They shouldn't of been within two touchdowns of us imo. We had so many games last year where with a little better focus we could have had a win instead of a loss. And I for one can't wait to see the rematch games this year. I suspect you'll see a totally different outcome.
The problem with assumptions like this is they assume we will play/be better and the other team will be the same or worse. It is like saying how bad Purdue is this year because they were bad the year before and the year before that and we will win. Teams get better and as we have seen, they are capable of matching up with other teams - Iowa State use to give us fits and were an acerage team.
Which is why I'm glad Wisconsin already beat LSU. You see I honestly believe we're closer to the Michigan State win then the Purdue loss as a program. We've got the horses on defense to run and if Tommy can play within himself we could have a real special year. And so far this is the second straight game that he's done just that.
If a Michigan fan can have those kinds of expectations for our Huskers then we sure as hell should too...
I think the Meechicken fan should keep his nose in his own business.
I'm glad Wisconsin beat LSU also. I was cheering for them mostly because I cheer for midwestern, tough-minded teams to beat the supposed untouchable SEC teams, secondarily because I usually pull for fellow B1G teams and thirdly because it puts another high(er) regarded team on Nebraska's schedule.
I believe if Nebraska can get through the first 7 games clean, Wisconsin, no matter how they will have fared against Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa, they are likely to be licking their wounds at least from physical matches, leaving the strong likelihood of a hot Nebraska team looking for revenge against a beat-up Wisconsin team that could put Nebraska now at 8-0 heading into a top 10 match-up @ Ohio State the following week. Could be a lot of fun if things come together with some solid momentum.
Our front 7 on defense needs major upgrading before we can mark wins ahead of time against ANY top 50 teams. Our "leader" at linebacker got 1 assisted and 1 unassisted tackle. That is obscene. Another "top" linebacker got 3 total tackles. Without LBs making plays, you have no defense. They better step up against Wyoming's offense.
I love your optimism!! Sadly...I think there is very little chance we will beat OSU.
You keep saying we won't beat top 60 or top 50 teams... Please tell me you're exaggerating... You don't really believe this do you? I'm in no way saying we go 7-0, i do believe we are better than what you are suggesting.
I guess we just play the games and see what happens. We will know soon enough.
After the first 7 games I will take 6-1 in a heart beat.
We can beat Oregon and NW but I have funny feeling we will at least lose one of those.
I could see us beating Oregon and losing to NW, I can also see us losing to the Ducks and Beating NW.
All of as of now should deside which is better for the team moving forward after 4 weeks.
We can beat Oregon and NW but I have funny feeling we will at least lose one of those.
I could see us beating Oregon and losing to NW, I can also see us losing to the Ducks and Beating NW.
All of as of now should deside which is better for the team moving forward after 4 weeks.
I think a better question is where are we going to be ranked if we get to 7-0?
What if we get to 9-0?
What if we roll to a 8-0 start and lose to Ohio State on a last second play in the Horseshoe?
Where would a 8-1 Nebraska be ranked? Is it possible for a B1G team to be 8-1 and be ranked 23,24,25 or unbelievably unranked?
What if we get to 9-0?
What if we roll to a 8-0 start and lose to Ohio State on a last second play in the Horseshoe?
Where would a 8-1 Nebraska be ranked? Is it possible for a B1G team to be 8-1 and be ranked 23,24,25 or unbelievably unranked?
If Nebraska goes 7-0, they will be around 15 in my opinion. Should they make 8-0, they would be around top 10. A loss to Ohio State as a top 10ish team would drop them to 16-17.
Stranger things have happened. Just last year Nebraska beat MSU and MSU beat OSU.
That is not what I said at all. I said until we get some playmakers at LB and DE, be cannot just assume wins against top 60 teams. We should beat them, but losses are possible, like Illinois and Purdue last year.
Thanks for clarifying, this makes much more sense. I just read your post wrong. My bad.
Could not agree more with this. Has Nebraska football really gotten to the point where our expectation is that a game at Northwestern is a toss up game? Give me a break. The only tough team on our schedule is Oregon, whom we play at home, should be favored against, and should beat. This is Nebraska! 7-0 should be the expectation going into Wisconsin not the bar to reach.
And let me guess if we don't go 7-0 we only give Riley and his staff partial support or do we outright fire him??? LSU just got beat by Wisconsin and Oklahoma got beat by Houston. They sure aren't going undefeated. Why don't you guys just put down the pitchforks and enjoy the ride.
Just curious... Have you seen the last 15 years? And people wonder why expectations are tempered.. It has nothing to do with us being Nebraska and everything to do with the last 15 years.
Yes, actually Nebraska has gotten to the point where a game at Northwestern is going to be a close spread. We can deal with wishes or reality. I believe Nebraska will start out 7-0 but I won't be surprised if they don't.
No, absolutely not. Riley should be given at least 4 years to implement his system and bring in his players. Having said that Nebraska football as a whole should never temper its expectations.
Besides Oregon, whom I'm not entirely sure of, we vastly outspend and out recruit all the aforementioned teams. To be honest, I don't know anybody who works with the staff or team as I've been out of Nebraska for a long time.
However, I'd garner on a basic hunch that any loss period at Nebraska is falling below expectations for Riley & Co. I think that this is especially true against the first 7 teams this season. You can swallow a loss on the road to Wisconsin or Ohio State maybe even dare I say Iowa however on talent, money, and passion for football we should be expected to win the first 7 games.
Lastly, if we don't win the first 7 games of the season it is by no means a failure. We will then have to shift our focus to winning the B1G West and then eventually the B1G! GBR!
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