Link: https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/n...tology-big-ten-tournament-ncaa-stewart-mandel
Huskers Need Strong Week in New York to make NCAA Tournament
by Chris Bumbaca, Land of 10
Stewart Mandel might be best known as a college football expert, but he moonlights as a bracketologist once college hoops season ramps up. His latest projected bracket does not include Nebraska.
In fact, according to Mandel, Nebraska isn't even close to making the NCAA Tournament field. On Tuesday, he wrote that the Huskers "have almost no case for an at-large berth." To make matters worse for the Huskers, Mandel had nine teams ahead of them heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Land of 10 followed up with Mandel for an in-depth explanation, as well as what Nebraska needs to do in New York to help its chances. Most of Mandel's argument revolves around the Huskers' lack of quality wins, which the selection committee identifies via a set of four quadrants. For example, a Quadrant 1 win is a victory over a team at home when the opponent is ranked 1-30 in the RPI; on a neutral court against a team ranked 1-50; and a road win over an opponent ranked 1-75.
What would help Nebraska's case, according to Mandel, would be if Michigan advanced to face the Huskers in the quarterfinals. Obviously, the Huskers would have to win that game and hope for another ranked opponent in the semifnials.
"As I wrote about Nebraska [Tuesday], unfortunately they don't currently check any box," Mandel wrote to Land of 10 in an email. "If the bracket were to work out where they could beat both Michigan and Michigan State, then they'd at least be in the conversation.
"They'd have three Q1 wins and five Q1 and Q2, which is more in line with current "last four in" teams like USC and Louisville. But that still doesn't solve the problem of their really low nonconference SOS. That's often a deal-breaker for teams right on the cutline."
Mandel offered the example of South Carolina, which had a nonconference strength-of-schedule of 271 in 2016 and missed the tournament.
As for what Nebraska absolutely needs to do -- other than win the tournament and earn an automatic bid -- to punch its ticket to the Big Dance, Mandel says the picture is murkier because the regular season in some conferences ends over the weekend, with Power 5 conference tournaments still to play.
"It's always hard to say that if a bubble team just does this and this, it will make the field, because you don't know what will happen in other conference tournaments. How will other teams on the bubble perform?" Mandel wrote. "Also, the bubble may tighten, if, say, someone like SMU rises up and wins the American [Athletic Conference] tournament, giving that league an extra bid that wasn't expected.
"So that's a long way of saying that the only sure thing is winning the Big Ten tourney, but getting a win over a great team like MSU in the semis would certainly go a long ways."
Mandel is just one analyst who evaluates in a specific way. It's not guaranteed that the committee will see the Huskers in the same light.
But if you're a Nebraska fan, it's concerning that Nebraska can be considered that far off the bubble.
Huskers Need Strong Week in New York to make NCAA Tournament
by Chris Bumbaca, Land of 10
Stewart Mandel might be best known as a college football expert, but he moonlights as a bracketologist once college hoops season ramps up. His latest projected bracket does not include Nebraska.
In fact, according to Mandel, Nebraska isn't even close to making the NCAA Tournament field. On Tuesday, he wrote that the Huskers "have almost no case for an at-large berth." To make matters worse for the Huskers, Mandel had nine teams ahead of them heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Land of 10 followed up with Mandel for an in-depth explanation, as well as what Nebraska needs to do in New York to help its chances. Most of Mandel's argument revolves around the Huskers' lack of quality wins, which the selection committee identifies via a set of four quadrants. For example, a Quadrant 1 win is a victory over a team at home when the opponent is ranked 1-30 in the RPI; on a neutral court against a team ranked 1-50; and a road win over an opponent ranked 1-75.
What would help Nebraska's case, according to Mandel, would be if Michigan advanced to face the Huskers in the quarterfinals. Obviously, the Huskers would have to win that game and hope for another ranked opponent in the semifnials.
"As I wrote about Nebraska [Tuesday], unfortunately they don't currently check any box," Mandel wrote to Land of 10 in an email. "If the bracket were to work out where they could beat both Michigan and Michigan State, then they'd at least be in the conversation.
"They'd have three Q1 wins and five Q1 and Q2, which is more in line with current "last four in" teams like USC and Louisville. But that still doesn't solve the problem of their really low nonconference SOS. That's often a deal-breaker for teams right on the cutline."
Mandel offered the example of South Carolina, which had a nonconference strength-of-schedule of 271 in 2016 and missed the tournament.
As for what Nebraska absolutely needs to do -- other than win the tournament and earn an automatic bid -- to punch its ticket to the Big Dance, Mandel says the picture is murkier because the regular season in some conferences ends over the weekend, with Power 5 conference tournaments still to play.
"It's always hard to say that if a bubble team just does this and this, it will make the field, because you don't know what will happen in other conference tournaments. How will other teams on the bubble perform?" Mandel wrote. "Also, the bubble may tighten, if, say, someone like SMU rises up and wins the American [Athletic Conference] tournament, giving that league an extra bid that wasn't expected.
"So that's a long way of saying that the only sure thing is winning the Big Ten tourney, but getting a win over a great team like MSU in the semis would certainly go a long ways."
Mandel is just one analyst who evaluates in a specific way. It's not guaranteed that the committee will see the Huskers in the same light.
But if you're a Nebraska fan, it's concerning that Nebraska can be considered that far off the bubble.
