Run Pass Ratio

[jflores]

According to ESPN there have been 190 pass attempts by the Huskers and 179 rushes in 2015. Which means we are throwing 51.4% of the time.

According to this NFL stats site (teamrankings.com), in 2014 (the last full season of data), NU would have ranked 30th in the NFL for pass ratio ahead of Dallas, Seattle and Houston. Every other team in the league throws more than NU, most by a not insignificant amount.

Notable teams in cold weather or run based offenses... the Packers ranked 23rd at 56%, the Chiefs 24th at 56%, Minnesota 20th at 58%, Redskins 15th at 60%, Buffalo 12th at 61%, Pittsburgh 11th at 61%, and Da Bears are 2nd at 65%. That is percentage of the time the offense throws the ball.

Just FYI, the average pass percentage for the 32 NFL teams is 58.4%, a whole 7% above where we are currently. Under Beck we threw the ball 38% of the time according to ESPN last year.

If Mike Riley were to split the difference between Beck and the average NFL team, we should be throwing at a 48% clip, which is in the ball park of the 51% we are at.

Certainly there is more to the run game than just raw ratios, I mentioned in another thread we need to show more run on 1st down, commit to run on 3rd/short situations, that kind of thing, but I think numbers make clear that for the most part, Riley doesn't just have us chucking the ball around near as much as we think we are.

We are certainly throwing the ball more than we used to, but we are still a ways from being your average NFL squad, even the cold weather run based ones.

 

[St. Anger]

Should be about 70/30, run/pass.

 

[Tulsa Tom]

According to ESPN there have been 190 pass attempts by the Huskers and 179 rushes in 2015. Which means we are throwing 51.4% of the time.

According to this NFL stats site (teamrankings.com), in 2014 (the last full season of data), NU would have ranked 30th in the NFL for pass ratio ahead of Dallas, Seattle and Houston. Every other team in the league throws more than NU, most by a not insignificant amount.

Notable teams in cold weather or run based offenses... the Packers ranked 23rd at 56%, the Chiefs 24th at 56%, Minnesota 20th at 58%, Redskins 15th at 60%, Buffalo 12th at 61%, Pittsburgh 11th at 61%, and Da Bears are 2nd at 65%. That is percentage of the time the offense throws the ball.

Just FYI, the average pass percentage for the 32 NFL teams is 58.4%, a whole 7% above where we are currently. Under Beck we threw the ball 38% of the time according to ESPN last year.

If Mike Riley were to split the difference between Beck and the average NFL team, we should be throwing at a 48% clip, which is in the ball park of the 51% we are at.

Certainly there is more to the run game than just raw ratios, I mentioned in another thread we need to show more run on 1st down, commit to run on 3rd/short situations, that kind of thing, but I think numbers make clear that for the most part, Riley doesn't just have us chucking the ball around near as much as we think we are.

We are certainly throwing the ball more than we used to, but we are still a ways from being your average NFL squad, even the cold weather run based ones.

No problem with these numbers. The bigger issue is just understanding the game situation and knowing what to do. If you are going into the 4th quarter of a game and have a 14 point lead...if you are heading into a stiff wind...if you have proven that you can run the ball at 5.5 ypc average...at that point it is best to not try and outwit everybody but run the freaking ball.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

No problem with these numbers. The bigger issue is just understanding the game situation and knowing what to do. If you are going into the 4th quarter of a game and have a 14 point lead...if you are heading into a stiff wind...if you have proven that you can run the ball at 5.5 ypc average...at that point it is best to not try and outwit everybody but run the freaking ball.

I cannot express how painful it was for me to hit the like button on one of your posts

 

[jflores]

No problem with these numbers. The bigger issue is just understanding the game situation and knowing what to do. If you are going into the 4th quarter of a game and have a 14 point lead...if you are heading into a stiff wind...if you have proven that you can run the ball at 5.5 ypc average...at that point it is best to not try and outwit everybody but run the freaking ball.

Agreed.

To address the other poster, I don't think we're going to see 70/30 out of this crew. This staff is predicated on balance, so you might get 55/45 one way or the other or whatever in a given year, but probably not overly slanted for the long haul.

 

[NikkiSixx]

Something to consider is, they have already adjusted things to run 'more' here in their eyes because of the dual threat Tommy provides. If we had a pro style QB to work with, the passing percentage would be a lot higher than it currently is. We are lucky to be getting the 48.6% run game as it is.

 

[iROOT4nu]

I'd like to see 60/40, if the coaches give me a solid 55/45 I'll be happy. Plus I think the higher the run the better % we win.

 

[jflores]

Something to consider is, they have already adjusted things to run 'more' here in their eyes because of the dual threat Tommy provides. If we had a pro style QB to work with, the passing percentage would be a lot higher than it currently is. We are lucky to be getting the 48.6% run game as it is.

Yah but I think a lot of those statements were made in the spring or even pre-spring when they thought the QB situation might be a little more solid than it was. When we got into fall camp, they started throwing out "we cannot get TA hurt or we're SOL". TA doesn't have a ton of carries, his designed runs might be 0.4% of the offense, meaning that with O'Brien, we still might throw at a 51% case until we figure out if he's the second coming of Manning.

If we were seeing QB design run all over the place, I'd be a little worried that we're going to 70% pass in the future, but TA makes up a small fraction of the current load.

 

[jflores]

I'd like to see 60/40, if the coaches give me a solid 55/45 I'll be happy. Plus I think the higher the run the better % we win.

I'm in this boat.

 

[suhnami]

Should be about 70/30, run/pass.

I was going to say 65/35

 

[Bredred]

The run/pass ratio should never be predetermined IMO. It should be adjusted continually throughout the game to account for situational changes, what your opponent is giving you or not, and WEATHER CONDITIONS. If it's windy you don't throw deep balls 9 times. Especially if you are leading 13 - 0. If you have a lead late in the 4th you run the ball to burn clock, protect the lead and get out of town with a win.

 

[arvadahusker]

According to ESPN there have been 190 pass attempts by the Huskers and 179 rushes in 2015. Which means we are throwing 51.4% of the time.

According to this NFL stats site (teamrankings.com), in 2014 (the last full season of data), NU would have ranked 30th in the NFL for pass ratio ahead of Dallas, Seattle and Houston. Every other team in the league throws more than NU, most by a not insignificant amount.

Notable teams in cold weather or run based offenses... the Packers ranked 23rd at 56%, the Chiefs 24th at 56%, Minnesota 20th at 58%, Redskins 15th at 60%, Buffalo 12th at 61%, Pittsburgh 11th at 61%, and Da Bears are 2nd at 65%. That is percentage of the time the offense throws the ball.

Just FYI, the average pass percentage for the 32 NFL teams is 58.4%, a whole 7% above where we are currently. Under Beck we threw the ball 38% of the time according to ESPN last year.

If Mike Riley were to split the difference between Beck and the average NFL team, we should be throwing at a 48% clip, which is in the ball park of the 51% we are at.

Certainly there is more to the run game than just raw ratios, I mentioned in another thread we need to show more run on 1st down, commit to run on 3rd/short situations, that kind of thing, but I think numbers make clear that for the most part, Riley doesn't just have us chucking the ball around near as much as we think we are.

We are certainly throwing the ball more than we used to, but we are still a ways from being your average NFL squad, even the cold weather run based ones.

I would like them to run the ball in WINDY conditions.. Does not take a wise man to know that Run should outweigh Pass.. On Saturday, when its 73 and Sunny with no wind - ----- GO NUTS!,

 

[Big Red Menace]

According to ESPN there have been 190 pass attempts by the Huskers and 179 rushes in 2015. Which means we are throwing 51.4% of the time.

According to this NFL stats site (teamrankings.com), in 2014 (the last full season of data), NU would have ranked 30th in the NFL for pass ratio ahead of Dallas, Seattle and Houston. Every other team in the league throws more than NU, most by a not insignificant amount.

Notable teams in cold weather or run based offenses... the Packers ranked 23rd at 56%, the Chiefs 24th at 56%, Minnesota 20th at 58%, Redskins 15th at 60%, Buffalo 12th at 61%, Pittsburgh 11th at 61%, and Da Bears are 2nd at 65%. That is percentage of the time the offense throws the ball.

Just FYI, the average pass percentage for the 32 NFL teams is 58.4%, a whole 7% above where we are currently. Under Beck we threw the ball 38% of the time according to ESPN last year.

If Mike Riley were to split the difference between Beck and the average NFL team, we should be throwing at a 48% clip, which is in the ball park of the 51% we are at.

Certainly there is more to the run game than just raw ratios, I mentioned in another thread we need to show more run on 1st down, commit to run on 3rd/short situations, that kind of thing, but I think numbers make clear that for the most part, Riley doesn't just have us chucking the ball around near as much as we think we are.

We are certainly throwing the ball more than we used to, but we are still a ways from being your average NFL squad, even the cold weather run based ones.

Interesting that you used NFL percentages as a comparison. Why not B1G or other college teams?

 

[barney44]

I don't care about the actual ratios, 50/50 range is good for me but I do care what the focus is here and the run doesn't seem to be that. Riley seems to prefer the pass, throw the run in to "keep the defense honest" but don't put a ton of emphasis on it. If a team like Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, etc. is capable of running on you then they're going to run it until you stop it. You really wont see that much with their passing games even though they're effective with them. They take what they can get through the air but they want to run it down your throat. This Nebraska offense on the other hand wants to force the pass and sadly I'm not a fan of those offenses in college football.

 

[suhnami]

Interesting that you used NFL percentages as a comparison. Why not B1G or other college teams?

Shows that even at an advanced level where all of the QBs and WRs are light years ahead of Tommy they still choose to run the ball.

 

[Yossarian23]

Shows that even at an advanced level where all of the QBs and WRs are light years ahead of Tommy they still choose to run the ball.

I'm fairly certain I understand the snark you were going for, but with a league wide average of 58% passes, I don't think the bolded is true.

 

[suhnami]

I'm fairly certain I understand the snark you were going for, but with a league wide average of 58% passes, I don't think the bolded is true.

Nope, I misread it. My bad.

 

[Yossarian23]

Nope, I misread it. My bad.

My initial assumption was that I misread it or you. I figure assuming it's me first saves a lot of trouble and a lot of eggs (on the face).

 

[nebcountry]

...We are certainly throwing the ball more than we used to, but we are still a ways from being your average NFL squad, even the cold weather run based ones.

I can understand why you started the thread. It almost sounds as if some fans want us to run the ball 100% of the time. I'm not that extreme, but I do consider us a pass happy team. Factor in sacks, we're probably around 55% or so passing. College and pro's are two different animals. There's a concentration of talent in the pro's. And if you're the worst pro team, you get to PICK first on your newest player.

There was an article saying that we were gonna run more. Will just have to see what that means (and I don't mean that in a bad way).

 

[jflores]

Interesting that you used NFL percentages as a comparison. Why not B1G or other college teams?

Because alot of the folks who are upset with Riley (losses chiefly, but style as well), are saying he's basically turning us into an NFL team with his west coast style. I went and looked up what NFL teams are doing, and we don't seem to be picking up what they are laying down.

There were other threads specifically where they mentioned that cold weather teams like the Packers rely on a run game, but truth be told, they rely on it less than we do.

 

[jflores]

Just a quick check, Oregon is 42.4% pass, Ohio State is 37.2% and Bama is 44.3%.

60/40 run advantage is about what we all seem to want, and about what other top schools are doing.

 

[jflores]

I can understand why you started the thread. It almost sounds as if some fans want us to run the ball 100% of the time. I'm not that extreme, but I do consider us a pass happy team. Factor in sacks, we're probably around 55% or so passing. College and pro's are two different animals. There's a concentration of talent in the pro's. And if you're the worst pro team, you get to PICK first on your newest player.

There was an article saying that we were gonna run more. Will just have to see what that means (and I don't mean that in a bad way).

I think we are pass happy for college, sure. I'd like us to run the ball more as stated above (I'm 60/40 guy). But the plural of hyberbole is not data Just thought I'd see where we stand.

 

[TheBeav815]

I appreciate the stats work, but why are we comparing a college team to the R/P numbers from the NFL?

Two very different worlds and it is WAY harder to run in the NFL than it is in college. Significant difference in the average YPC.

 

[jflores]

I appreciate the stats work, but why are we comparing a college team to the R/P numbers from the NFL?

Two very different worlds and it is WAY harder to run in the NFL than it is in college. Significant difference in the average YPC.

Look three posts up.