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OT: Breeders Cup

PeliniTheCrutch

Defensive Coordinator
Jul 4, 2016
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The horse racing event of the year…Friday + Saturday.

All thoughts here.


I’ve got a ton to look over still, but I’m a fan of Ushba in the Classic.
 
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The horse racing event of the year…Friday + Saturday.

All thoughts here.


I’ve got a ton to look over still, but I’m a fan of Ushba in the Classic.
Anything can happen, but if White Abarrio runs his race, its all over since Dutrow took over
Probably wont play the race but i seen a couple of baby races i really like
 
Anything can happen, but if White Abarrio runs his race, its all over since Dutrow took over
Probably wont play the race but i seen a couple of baby races i really like
With Dutrow, I can’t decide whether to toss him with all the vet stuff or move him up!

Agreed that he’s the horse to beat, and that most of the other races are much more interesting.
 
With Dutrow, I can’t decide whether to toss him with all the vet stuff or move him up!

Agreed that he’s the horse to beat, and that most of the other races are much more interesting.
Dutrow, as you know Pelini, will use anything it takes to get his horses to run well. lol

Crooked s.o.b. as there ever was, but a helluva trainer. a walking contradiction.

I talked to him and Bobby Frankel at Santa Anita during the Breeders Cup, they both said testing will never keep up with modern, new chemistry. LOL
 
I know nothing about horse racing, but the family that I work for used to have one member that was a thoroughbred breeder. He had a Breeders Cup Classic winner in the early 2000's, his old office is next to mine and is full of horse racing stuff. All I know is the horse racing biz is a good way to never have taxable income at the end of the year!
 
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I know nothing about horse racing, but the family that I work for used to have one member that was a thoroughbred breeder. He had a Breeders Cup Classic winner in the early 2000's, his old office is next to mine and is full of horse racing stuff. All I know is the horse racing biz is a good way to never have taxable income at the end of the year!
Its also how some horse owners turn a large fortune into a small fortune.
 
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With Dutrow, I can’t decide whether to toss him with all the vet stuff or move him up!

Agreed that he’s the horse to beat, and that most of the other races are much more interesting.
Appleby always a bitch at the Breeders Cup. Attfield from Canada usually has one at a price worth looking at.

Haven't checked the Fri or Sat entries at a couple tracks yet, BUT at AQU watch of for Shimvangal and especially Bedard if he has a shipper from PEN/PARX.

At GP, if Saffie has an uncoupled entry with one being a FTS, that is always his runner that's ready to go at first asking. Typically, the other horse is the chalk looks good on the form, and takes a lot of dough from the crowd.
Also, if John Servis (of Smarty Jones fame) starts one at GP, they are usually razor sharp at a fair price.

Looks like the B Cup only gets money from me on 3 races, 2 Friday and 1 Sat.

Good luck.
 
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Appleby always a bitch at the Breeders Cup. Attfield from Canada usually has one at a price worth looking at.

Haven't checked the Fri or Sat entries at a couple tracks yet, BUT at AQU watch of for Shimvangal and especially Bedard if he has a shipper from PEN/PARX.

At GP, if Saffie has an uncoupled entry with one being a FTS, that is always his runner that's ready to go at first asking. Tpically, the other horse is the chalk and looks good on the form, and takes a lot of dough from the crowd.
Also, if John Servis (of Smarty Jones fame) starts one at GP, they are usually razor sharp at a fair price.

Looks like the B Cup only gets money from me on 3 races, 2 Friday and 1 Sat.

Good luck.
Been teaching too much lately…still gotta put more work in, but thanks.

Love the Joseph angle…similar to the “other Baffert” angle.
 
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Been teaching too much lately…still gotta put more work in, but thanks.

Love the Joseph angle…similar to the “other Baffert” angle.
That was the patented D. Wayne Lukas angle. I remember Spain paid 100.00+ in the BC.

Looks like Friday in the Juvy Fillies going 8.5f, Tamara and Candied could run 1-2, but that horse Omaha Girl at 30/1 could get a piece.
 
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Appleby always a bitch at the Breeders Cup. Attfield from Canada usually has one at a price worth looking at.

Haven't checked the Fri or Sat entries at a couple tracks yet, BUT at AQU watch of for Shimvangal and especially Bedard if he has a shipper from PEN/PARX.

At GP, if Saffie has an uncoupled entry with one being a FTS, that is always his runner that's ready to go at first asking. Typically, the other horse is the chalk looks good on the form, and takes a lot of dough from the crowd.
Also, if John Servis (of Smarty Jones fame) starts one at GP, they are usually razor sharp at a fair price.

Looks like the B Cup only gets money from me on 3 races, 2 Friday and 1 Sat.

Good luck.
I’m still waiting for you to say, “these aren’t my underwear”. Damn man I continue to be amazed by the details. 🤔
 
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I’m still waiting for you to say, “these aren’t my underwear”. Damn man I continue to be amazed by the details. 🤔
I dont know about the "these arent my underwear" comment, but its nothing more than an asymmetrical information advantage gained over many years. But, i appreciate the majority of your comment dingle. lol

Please understand, i touch on about 1% of my knowledge base because they are some on here who object to the subject of horseracing.

As like yourself with the PhD, its akin to you giving a kindergarten lesson on your overall expertise.

If Ichose to do a detailed explanation of things i know about handicapping, i could elevate virtually everyone's game 100 times.
 
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I dont know about the "these arent my underwear" comment, but its nothing more than an asymmetrical information advantage gained over many years. But, i appreciate the majority of your comment dingle. lol

Please understand, i touch on about 1% of my knowledge base because they are some on here who object to the subject of horseracing.

As like yourself with the PhD, its akin to you giving a kindergarten lesson on your overall expertise.

If Ichose to do a detailed explanation of things i know about handicapping, i could elevate virtually everyone's game 100 times.
These aren’t my underwear is a reference to Dustin Hoffman’s line in Rainman. I’m not a Tom Cruise fan but that was probably my favorite of his movies.
 
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These aren’t my underwear is a reference to Dustin Hoffman’s line in Rainman. I’m not a Tom Cruise fan but that was probably my favorite of his movies.
Loved that show, one of my top 5-10 of all time. I think Cruise is a fantastic actor even if he is gay. My son is best friend with Jake Hoffman, Dustin's son. He owns a bar in Hollywood daddy bought him. My son says Hoffman about 5'2" tall.
 
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Loved that show, one of my top 5-10 of all time. I think Cruise is a fantastic actor even if he is gay. My son is best friend with Jake Hoffman, Dustin's son. He owns a bar in Hollywood daddy bought him. My son says Hoffman about 5'2" tall.
Nice. Can’t stand Cruise though. Good actor. His personal life makes it tough for me to enjoy his movies. I know that’s weird but…. I’ve never watched more than a few minutes of Top Gun. Jerry McGuire and Rainman are probably the only two of his movies I’ve watched beginning to end.
 
Nice. Can’t stand Cruise though. Good actor. His personal life makes it tough for me to enjoy his movies. I know that’s weird but…. I’ve never watched more than a few minutes of Top Gun. Jerry McGuire and Rainman are probably the only two of his movies I’ve watched beginning to end.
The Color of Money?

Take a lap!
 
Nice. Can’t stand Cruise though. Good actor. His personal life makes it tough for me to enjoy his movies. I know that’s weird but…. I’ve never watched more than a few minutes of Top Gun. Jerry McGuire and Rainman are probably the only two of his movies I’ve watched beginning to end.
A Few Good Men is one of my 5 all-time favorite movies. Cruise, Nicholson, Bacon, Demi Moore, Kevin Pollack.
 
Two more I like:

Big Invasion at a big price in the Turf Sprint.

Clairiere to come from out of the clouds in the Distaff at good odds.
 
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Played a $5 exacta in the Juvenile Fillies 1,3,12/1,2,3,6,7,12. for $506. Mike Welsch, DRF clocker, did not think Tamara had been training well up to the race. I threw in the 2 based on comments from Matt Bernier.
 
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Two more I like:

Big Invasion at a big price in the Turf Sprint.

Clairiere to come from out of the clouds in the Distaff at good odds.
I hit 4 of the 5 exactas, and they just kept getting smaller. Had Cerin on top at 24/1 and the exacta only paid 100.00.
Had another at 22/1 run second and got 58.00. Nothing, besides Cerin horse paid crap yesterday. lol

Good luck with In Italian today, she's ran 4 straight Grade 1's with a performance rating of 1,1,1,1 so steady as can be. My only question is getting the distance because she's gonna be on the front end and should be able to run her race.

I look at Warm Heart under O'Brien on the distance cutback, and Lindy with Brendan Walsh (IMO a great trainer) and had a big improvement first time under Walsh after arriving in the USA. (She ran very well, Lindy didn't run well) Hit a small exacta).

At any rate, I hope they all chase Italiano for 1 1/4mile and 1 step. So go them 'em Pelini!!

Cody's Wish in the Dirt Mile is very tough, I do like Stage Raider (15/1), Zozos (6/1), and Practical Move (3/1) and will put Cody in the 1 and 2 hole in the tri. (At least i think i will if Stage Raider has 15/1 plus odds).(Cody's Wish won and the others did not)

I think in the Mile i'm gonna give Gina Romantica (12/1) a shot along with 6-10-14. Gina has 7 straight improved races but she is light on number power so will have the odds dictate this one. (She ran decent and caved the last 1/16th. Had another dinky exacta)

In your Distaff, your horse out of the 9PP needs to grab the rail early, she has not fared well when she loses ground (duh) and it looks like the Cox horse Idiomatic is really rounding into form and Brown's horse Randomized at 6/1 looks tough. I'm hoping your horse gets the kind of winning trip she will need. (Idiomatic won and and Randomized ran 2nd. Again, another small exacta).

I normally don't make so many predictions on such tough races, but wanted to recognize your efforts in this thread and hope you have a big day Pelini. Good luck buddy.

You know how the game is, one race or one day you look like a genius, the next race or day you can look like an idiot. Especially with the best horses in the world running against each other.

**Edited**

In the Classic, IF and its a big IF, Abarrio doesn't bounce off his last effort he is gonna be awful tough. Ever since Dutrow got him before his last start, he runs like a new horse, however, the number says is a likely bounce candidate.

The horse a couple of you like from Japan looks salty. So i think, contingent on the odds i'll play Abarrio on top of the Japanese horse along with Derma at 20/1 and Cox's horse Saudi at 12/1. Then mix up the tri with Japan on top of the 3 others. At any rate, its actually a lot better race to watch than bet on, but since we're playing with money, may as well take our shots. (This race i hit pretty good cause Abarrio won and Derma ran 2nd at about 25/1. Had the tri and just missed the super). Derma Sotogake ran today like i thought he would run in the Kentucky Derby, but got buried out of the gate.)

Good luck to all that make plays today. I don't rely on good luck, I just hope to avoid bad luck.

(All in all for the day, all the exactas paid crap, the only decent one i hit twice was 89.00 each. Made a fair amount in the Classic and in the 5f turf, where Pelini's horse Big Invasion ran huge and ran 2nd. I had the exacta a 12/1 to a 12/1 and it paid a lousy 100.00+.) (This was the worst paying 2 days for exacta and supers that i can remember. Made
$ 900.00 for the 2 days which is nothing to shout about, but beats the alternative).
 
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I hit 4 of the 5 exactas, and they just kept getting smaller. Had Cerin on top at 24/1 and the exacta only paid 100.00.
Had another at 22/1 run second and got 58.00. Nothing, besides Cerin horse paid crap yesterday. lol

Good luck with In Italian today, she's ran 4 straight Grade 1's with a performance rating of 1,1,1,1 so steady as can be. My only question is getting the distance because she's gonna be on the front end and should be able to run her race.

I look at Warm Heart under O'Brien on the distance cutback, and Lundy with Brendan Walsh (IMO a great trainer) and had a big improvement first time under Walsh after arriving in the USA.

At any rate, I hope they all chase Italiano for 1 1/4mile and 1 step. So go them 'em Pelini!!

Cody's Wish in the Dirt Mile is very tough, I do like Stage Raider (15/1), Zozos (6/1), and Practical Move (3/1) and will put Cody in the 1 and 2 hole in the tri. (At least i think i will if Stage Raider has 15/1 plus odds).

I think in the Mile i'm gonna give Gina Romantica (12/1) a shot along with 6-10-14. Gina has 7 straight improved races but she is light on number power so will have the odds dictate this one.

In your Distaff, your horse out of the 9PP needs to grab the rail early, she has not fared well when she loses ground (duh) and it looks like the Cox horse Idiomatic is really rounding into form and Brown's horse Randomized at 6/1 looks tough. I'm hoping your horse gets the kind of winning trip she will need.

I normally don't make so many predictions on such tough races, but wanted to recognize your efforts in this thread and hope you have a big day Pelini. Good luck buddy.

You know how the game is, one race or one day you look like a genius, the next race or day you look like an idiot. Especially with the best horses in the world running against each other.
I’m liking Gina Romantica as well.

I don’t like Practical Move in the Dirt Mile as much as you though…mostly because he’s dead.
 
Played a $5 exacta in the Juvenile Fillies 1,3,12/1,2,3,6,7,12. for $506. Mike Welsch, DRF clocker, did not think Tamara had been training well up to the race. I threw in the 2 based on comments from Matt Bernier.
My son talked to Mike Smith and said she not training great and had a real question of getting the distance, he was right on both counts. I had the 11 in the 2 hole with the 6 and just missed a nice tri. Maybe it was the 10, you know how it is when you miss a race, lol.

Good job Capiche. Get 'em again today buddy!!
 
I’m liking Gina Romantica as well.

I don’t like Practical Move in the Dirt Mile as much as you though…mostly because he’s dead.
Looks like the 5f turf with Big Invasion is the toughest race on the card. I came up with Motorius as the best, i also like Lanes End and maybe Jasper late along with Invasion. Probably make a small interest wager and root on Big Invasion. Not even sure if Lanes End has drawn in....
 
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