I agree with you and when I'm betting (been a while) I love being a contrarian bettor. I was just stating what I think is the obvious point of view. It takes major guts to take under based on the first games by each team, but I agree with your perspective.Taking the under is easy. Based on what you wrote, the number should be 75 but it opened at 68 and is sitting at 70 now. Coupled with the 14 point line you would be looking at a 42-28 game to get the push. That is 11 touchdowns and
Nebraska only ran 70 plays against a fast paced Arkansas St offense. The Nebraska defense forced Arkansas St to sustain drives and limited big plays. More plays per possession, less possessions, less possessions less points.
Yes. Vegas usually doesn't beg people to take what is an easy outcome. So I'm with you on both fronts. Total should have been 74 or higher. Begging you to take over at this number, so play should be under. I had this game pegged as Oregon -7, maybe 7.5. So when it moves to 14 so quickly without a ton of Oregon money, to me, they're begging people to take Nebraska, which leaves me thinking we're staring at an Oregon blowout.I just use a rule of thumb that says when the total or the line looks out of whack, somebody knows something.
This is one of those cases. My computer program has this at about a 5 point game. Oregon shows to be about a 1.5 better team and home field of 3.5 gets the number to 5. If I were to play this game, I would jump on Nebraska. That is 9 free points. Same thing with the total. I would figure the number would be bigger than last year. Both teams have have better offenses, but the number is a FG lower? seems strange so my thoughts are somebody knows something, or my thought process is on point and Vegas is begging everyone to take the over.
When it was 7.5 the big dogs loaded up on Oregon and moved the line up to 10.5. It just kept going up to 14. However the late big money is coming back on NU. It is now down to 11.5 which isn't surprising since the line moved up so high.Where are you seeing the big money went on Oregon. My site isshowing more money is actually on Nebraska +14 than Oregon at at anytime and number of bets was pretty even.
It appears they weren't getting enough action on Nebraska getting less that 14, but I am not seeing any significant money on either side.