oregon point spread

Dean Pope

Offensive Coordinator
Oct 11, 2001
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Saw it at six last week and at 10 this morning. If it went up four points today alone, I would guess that someone put a large bet on Oregon. Seems ridiculous to me. At +14 I would think the sharps in Vegas would be all over Nebraska. But personally, I wouldn't bet against Oregon.
 

litespeedhuskerfan

Nebraska Football Hall of Fame
Aug 27, 2006
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Sorry, just posted somethign similar, because I'm always to lazy to look and see if anyone else posted soemthing similar....
 

headcard

Nebraska Legend
Feb 2, 2005
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If I had already bet on Oregon at -4, I would be all over Neb at +14, great chance to hit the middle and double up.
 

bomber89

Offensive Coordinator
Oct 12, 2004
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somebody in Vegas will put a 5-10K bet on Oregon at 14 to get it to 17 and then dump 100K on Nebraska at 17.
 

SevoHusker

Newbie
Mar 25, 2016
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Public money on Ducks. Will be interesting to see what happens when the sharps lay their cash down.
 

chicolby

All-American
May 3, 2012
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Furthermore, I expected the Nebraska spread to be around 7 points. 14 points is alarming and represents a big concern for the rest of this season.

Also, for those who check out other spreads, Arkansas State is getting 14.5 AT HOME vs. Miami. I bet Miami wins by 20+.

I am usually a very positive glass half full guy, but these spreads have me concerned.
 
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Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
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Albuquerque
Initial spreads matter, all the adjustments, especially this early in the week are based on how the money is coming in. Non pro betters bet on emotion and over reaction. I'll wait until later in the week to see where the money is being bet.
 

Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
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Where are you seeing the big money went on Oregon. My site isshowing more money is actually on Nebraska +14 than Oregon at at anytime and number of bets was pretty even.

It appears they weren't getting enough action on Nebraska getting less that 14, but I am not seeing any significant money on either side.
 

SWIowahawks

Sophomore
Sep 2, 2006
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O/U in my pool is 70. It's very tempting. Oregon will score 40+ for sure. So how many will Nebraska score?
 
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chicolby

All-American
May 3, 2012
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Oregon offense puts up 700 yards, 50/50 run pass. Nebraska defense gives up 500 yards at Memorial Stadium to a lesser talented team. Nebraska offense looks impressive in scoring over 40 points in the first game for Lee in two years with a new running back and strong performances from young talent. How would anyone take under on this game?
 

Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
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Taking the under is easy. Based on what you wrote, the number should be 75 but it opened at 68 and is sitting at 70 now. Coupled with the 14 point line you would be looking at a 42-28 game to get the push. That is 11 touchdowns and

Nebraska only ran 70 plays against a fast paced Arkansas St offense. The Nebraska defense forced Arkansas St to sustain drives and limited big plays. More plays per possession, less possessions, less possessions less points.
 
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chicolby

All-American
May 3, 2012
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Taking the under is easy. Based on what you wrote, the number should be 75 but it opened at 68 and is sitting at 70 now. Coupled with the 14 point line you would be looking at a 42-28 game to get the push. That is 11 touchdowns and

Nebraska only ran 70 plays against a fast paced Arkansas St offense. The Nebraska defense forced Arkansas St to sustain drives and limited big plays. More plays per possession, less possessions, less possessions less points.
I agree with you and when I'm betting (been a while) I love being a contrarian bettor. I was just stating what I think is the obvious point of view. It takes major guts to take under based on the first games by each team, but I agree with your perspective.

I'm just wondering where those guys were who were sure that Oregon would be an easy win because Nebraska was a 9 win team who had beaten this Oregon team last year and Oregon was coming off of a below .500 season. They should be lining up to make a ton of money this weekend if they were so sure of a Husker win. Now they get a cushion of 14 points to work with as well.
 

Tuco Salamanca

Offensive Coordinator
Aug 18, 2016
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I just use a rule of thumb that says when the total or the line looks out of whack, somebody knows something.

This is one of those cases. My computer program has this at about a 5 point game. Oregon shows to be about a 1.5 better team and home field of 3.5 gets the number to 5. If I were to play this game, I would jump on Nebraska. That is 9 free points. Same thing with the total. I would figure the number would be bigger than last year. Both teams have have better offenses, but the number is a FG lower? seems strange so my thoughts are somebody knows something, or my thought process is on point and Vegas is begging everyone to take the over.
 

chicolby

All-American
May 3, 2012
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I just use a rule of thumb that says when the total or the line looks out of whack, somebody knows something.

This is one of those cases. My computer program has this at about a 5 point game. Oregon shows to be about a 1.5 better team and home field of 3.5 gets the number to 5. If I were to play this game, I would jump on Nebraska. That is 9 free points. Same thing with the total. I would figure the number would be bigger than last year. Both teams have have better offenses, but the number is a FG lower? seems strange so my thoughts are somebody knows something, or my thought process is on point and Vegas is begging everyone to take the over.
Yes. Vegas usually doesn't beg people to take what is an easy outcome. So I'm with you on both fronts. Total should have been 74 or higher. Begging you to take over at this number, so play should be under. I had this game pegged as Oregon -7, maybe 7.5. So when it moves to 14 so quickly without a ton of Oregon money, to me, they're begging people to take Nebraska, which leaves me thinking we're staring at an Oregon blowout.
 

supersport24

Redshirt Freshman
Sep 8, 2008
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Where are you seeing the big money went on Oregon. My site isshowing more money is actually on Nebraska +14 than Oregon at at anytime and number of bets was pretty even.

It appears they weren't getting enough action on Nebraska getting less that 14, but I am not seeing any significant money on either side.
When it was 7.5 the big dogs loaded up on Oregon and moved the line up to 10.5. It just kept going up to 14. However the late big money is coming back on NU. It is now down to 11.5 which isn't surprising since the line moved up so high.