Allow me to preface this by saying I do think that it'll be a close game in which we ultimately fall just short of coming back to Lincoln with the W.
That being said...
In almost every prediction article I've seen that picks the Ducks the reasoning is based in fallacy. Examples:
-"Home field advantage"
There will be far more Husker fans there than some are expecting. That makes a huge difference.
-"Nebraska lost a bunch of players"
And exactly one player from last year made an NFL active roster and that player wasn't even drafted. I think that speaks for itself but if it needs clarification, we have more depth and talent on this year's roster
-"Oregons offense is back after beating Southern Utah"
.....yeah, Southern Utah...... you can't learn much from that game.
-"Nebraska should've lost to Ark St"
Anyone who watched the game knows that while the defense wasn't great, we played better than the score indicated. Up 2 touchdowns with 5 minutes left to play against a quality opponent with a difficult offense to prepare for. Not to mention the D shut them down for 25 minutes after halftime but no one wants to mention that because it doesn't fit the narrative.
What does all this mean? To me, it means that the only real advantages Oregon has is in team speed and our inexperience in the new scheme. What that tells me is that all it takes is for us to play a little better on D than people are expecting and we pull the upset. We don't have to overcome a mountain of challenges like some are predicting. I like our chances on Saturday but win or lose I'd be shocked if we don't keep it close.
That being said...
In almost every prediction article I've seen that picks the Ducks the reasoning is based in fallacy. Examples:
-"Home field advantage"
There will be far more Husker fans there than some are expecting. That makes a huge difference.
-"Nebraska lost a bunch of players"
And exactly one player from last year made an NFL active roster and that player wasn't even drafted. I think that speaks for itself but if it needs clarification, we have more depth and talent on this year's roster
-"Oregons offense is back after beating Southern Utah"
.....yeah, Southern Utah...... you can't learn much from that game.
-"Nebraska should've lost to Ark St"
Anyone who watched the game knows that while the defense wasn't great, we played better than the score indicated. Up 2 touchdowns with 5 minutes left to play against a quality opponent with a difficult offense to prepare for. Not to mention the D shut them down for 25 minutes after halftime but no one wants to mention that because it doesn't fit the narrative.
What does all this mean? To me, it means that the only real advantages Oregon has is in team speed and our inexperience in the new scheme. What that tells me is that all it takes is for us to play a little better on D than people are expecting and we pull the upset. We don't have to overcome a mountain of challenges like some are predicting. I like our chances on Saturday but win or lose I'd be shocked if we don't keep it close.
