It seems like NIL has evolved and is now much more about keeping talent and acquiring proven guys in the portal, instead of throwing resources at unproven HS kids.
NIL is changing
- Thread starter headcard
- Start date
https://www.on3.com/nil/news/high-school-football-recruiting-nil-market-irregularity-parents/
Collectives have shifted funds from spending in recruiting to the portal, where the odds of landing a proven commodity are significantly higher.
“A top-10 caliber quarterback in the transfer portal is worth seven figures. But a high school quarterback isn’t worth anything because they’re not going to start,” a collective leader told On3. “Same thing with any player. You can have a stud defensive end or wide receiver – it doesn’t make sense to spend money on someone who is going to be a non-impact player. It’s just bad management. That’s why in professional sports, rookies make so much less than free agents. You want a guaranteed veteran more than taking a flier on a rookie.
“The problem is everyone’s like, ‘Oh great, I can go recruit this high school kid and he can make a big difference.’ What’s the bust rate in the NFL draft in the first round? Probably a one-third chance the guy is going to work out. So why do you think you’re going to be able to recognize somebody as a high school recruit and then go dump all this money.”
Roster management has also emerged as a key component of a school’s NIL infrastructure. While lucrative packages can attract talent, it’s also used to retain top players. In a market where the motto is buyers beware, the safest option is to preserve talent rather than risk a recruiting bust.
“What I feel like, it’s kind of been a shift from – at first it was the recruiting front because the incoming guys caught the first wave,” an SEC player personnel staffer involved in NIL told On3. “They were the ones to be able to capitalize on the era when everyone was trying to figure out what was going on. It seems to me there’s been a shift from the early stage to the retain portion. More people are seeing it’s about maintaining your roster and keeping your guys another year, rather than the young fellas who aren’t a proven commodity.”
Collectives have shifted funds from spending in recruiting to the portal, where the odds of landing a proven commodity are significantly higher.
“A top-10 caliber quarterback in the transfer portal is worth seven figures. But a high school quarterback isn’t worth anything because they’re not going to start,” a collective leader told On3. “Same thing with any player. You can have a stud defensive end or wide receiver – it doesn’t make sense to spend money on someone who is going to be a non-impact player. It’s just bad management. That’s why in professional sports, rookies make so much less than free agents. You want a guaranteed veteran more than taking a flier on a rookie.
“The problem is everyone’s like, ‘Oh great, I can go recruit this high school kid and he can make a big difference.’ What’s the bust rate in the NFL draft in the first round? Probably a one-third chance the guy is going to work out. So why do you think you’re going to be able to recognize somebody as a high school recruit and then go dump all this money.”
Roster management has also emerged as a key component of a school’s NIL infrastructure. While lucrative packages can attract talent, it’s also used to retain top players. In a market where the motto is buyers beware, the safest option is to preserve talent rather than risk a recruiting bust.
“What I feel like, it’s kind of been a shift from – at first it was the recruiting front because the incoming guys caught the first wave,” an SEC player personnel staffer involved in NIL told On3. “They were the ones to be able to capitalize on the era when everyone was trying to figure out what was going on. It seems to me there’s been a shift from the early stage to the retain portion. More people are seeing it’s about maintaining your roster and keeping your guys another year, rather than the young fellas who aren’t a proven commodity.”
Free markets with no regulation are the fastest way to the truth as it pertains to value
Everyone can learn a lot from NIL but instead they want it abolished/regulated
Everyone can learn a lot from NIL but instead they want it abolished/regulated
A good example would be Texas aTm.
They had the #1 class a couple of years ago, by spending tens of millions of NIL dollars. They had like 10 five-stars, and it was considered by many to be the best class ever. Fast forward two years, and they just fired their coach.
They had the #1 class a couple of years ago, by spending tens of millions of NIL dollars. They had like 10 five-stars, and it was considered by many to be the best class ever. Fast forward two years, and they just fired their coach.
You would think, but I've heard alot of talk about this approach being flawed and throwing NIL money at f'n dogs and leaders as the road to prosperity.
It wouldn’t be accurate to say high school top talent isn’t worth anything. Top five quarterbacks coming out of high school are going to get a nice check. But I do agree that it would be stupid to let your talented and upcoming guys get away.
P.J. Fleck was grousing this week that the U is bottom four in BIG NIL. That’s not gonna fly if they want to be competitive. He could be looking to jump. maybe take those skinny khakis to Bryan?
If they don’t go bowling, Minnesota could be looking to dump him.
Yeah well, you have to actually have the talented and upcoming guys on your team worth investing money into for this to really be a factor.
aTm wouldn't touch that guy with a 10-ft pole. But man would it be fun to watch if he did somehow land there.
Last edited:
^^^^ 1000% on focusing on roster retention, every bit as important is recruiting outta high school. And proven transfer portals studs are gonna be a WAY more predictable investment. Makes all the sense in the world.
that said... one way or another, top-10 teams starting lineups basically are all averaging a market value of probably $200k. Averages. Kids coming outta HS are STILL gonna overwhelmingly goto who pays them. IDC how this program chooses to improve the talent on the field, but they're gonna need to accept the fact they're gonna have to spend A LOT more money on players, somewhere.
We need 4/5* players on our roster if we're gonna compete for championships, OR attempt (fail) to be the only contender who doesn't. Throwing money at HS kids is a RISK, I get it. Isn't the alternative in getting 4/5*'s thru transfer gonna be a lot more roster turnover? Pick your poison. We're gonna need to risk more at some point.
Think getting rid of and/or circumventing the leadership of Certain NIL initiatives would be a really good start. It's a problem for many, currently.
How about Lenhardt, Princewill, Singleton, Van Poppel, JEJ? I bet Lloyd would be attractive to a lot of teams. Showed he can play and has blazing speed.
I'm as bummed out as everyone else but there are some good young players on this team.
A qb that could hit an open pass 9 out of 10 times would dramatically change how this team looks.
Good observation.
I don't see NIL as being workable on various levels. It's been immediately co-opted so we've already lost the original intent.
But, let's say we go out and buy the best two portal qb's in the offseason. One, because of his status, makes a million, the other 500,000. Number one is gimpy and ends up being dysfunctional. Number 2 is better than imagined. He feels he is getting a raw deal and is thinking he is worth a lot more now in the portal. Meanwhile, some guy who's worked his way up the ladder gets gift cards. There is just no way it's equitable. Kids will be fuming and feeling underappreciated.
If, as we hope, Purdy enlivens our offense and we beat Wisconsin by three td's, where's his reward? Guy who's butt has been permanently fastener to the bench for poor play buys himself a new car the next day.
Exactly, and thank you for expanding that list. Landomatic just talks a lot of nonsense.
True. Whole offense is functioning much better with more competent quarterback play and we are feeling a whole lot better about everything.
Retention has to be where you start, but the best programs will be the ones who use the portal. Texas A&M is a good example that spending just buys you a seat at the table, it doesn't guarantee wins. But on the other hand, look at how Clemson has fallen off and is no longer in the national title conversation because Dabo refuses to evolve.
It’s a mess. Basically unregulated free agency where the payor is a third-party. How does that make sense?
All I can say is that I hope we spend the bucks to get a top QB from the portal this transfer season.
They'd hang him from the goalposts by his underwear by the end of the first week of practice.
Retain what we have and add one player and we're feeling a whole lot better about what, just to be clear? Being able to handle the worst division in college football? Okay, sure. Being able to compete for titles? Not even close.
We may lose a couple players here and there over the next 16-24 months or so, but everything NIL related will eventually be in-house by 2026 at the latest. I like that we have a head coach who wants to make his program developmental and a place that players don’t want to leave. That was one of the bigger green lights for me when Alberts hired him.
It will be fascinating to see how administrations and regent boards across the country react to the implosion of the Power 5, NIL going in-house, and the eventual emergence of a college football commissioner. It’s not a matter of if, but when.
It will be fascinating to see how administrations and regent boards across the country react to the implosion of the Power 5, NIL going in-house, and the eventual emergence of a college football commissioner. It’s not a matter of if, but when.
Just make college football a pro league already, and pay the players directly with multi-year contracts, a salary cap, and roster limit. NIL and the Transfer Portal are getting ridiculous, let's stop pretending any of this has anything to do with academics.
^^^ exactly what we need. There's no situation in which we aren't disadvantaged as a program, otherwise. And 'not paying them' isn't gonna happen, that ship has sailed.
Curious what makes you think the bold part? Not saying you’re wrong, just wondering what makes you so sure? This is Rhule’s first year dealing with portal and NIL.
I think the key is Rhule WANTS to make this a place where people want to stay, not necessarily that he has accomplished that. I do believe that is what Rhule wants. We will see if he has that soon enough.
You don't suppose NIL money brings any attitude problems, do you?
I’ll echo the ‘wants to’ part for Rhule. I don’t know a lot about how 1890 operates or financially compares to other Power 5 “Collectives”, but I do know that Trev Alberts and Doug Ewald are at the forefront of all this. And one thing Ewald continues to say is that NIL will be in-house within 2 years from now.
Some administrative decisions from Alberts, Rhule and several other head coaches at UNL also make me think theres been a massive shift internally in the UNL administration. It seems to me that they want DONU to be a destination for individuals who want to be coached and developed, not sold a pipe dream. Examples:
Sounds good. Takes time, but there is eventually proof of concept. Sell Mom on high graduation rates and job placement and you have something appealing to many families.
So, you think our plan is to not be competitive with NIL but instead, to hang our pitch on getting players who want to be coached and developed? I hope I'm either misreading what you're saying or you're wrong. Because that will never get us to any kind of championship level.
I do think we’re getting slightly mixed up. I’m all for NIL - we absolutely need to pay players to keep up and compete for championships.
I am only relaying what Doug Ewald said about NIL on the Doc Talk Podcast. He and Alberts have remained consistent on NIL going in-house. The current wild west of NIL is simply unsustainable. It’s still blurry to me how it will all work, but it’ll be a combination of paying players internally (whether that means the players become employees of UNL or not, I don’t know) all while still defining UNL as a developmental program.
And this will be a NCAA thing, or just our thing? Rules would have to change for that to happen. Or that's their hope is that it will change so we can do that because we can't compete otherwise? I mean, yeah, we all hope it will get more regulated, with something like a salary cap and contract periods and whatnot.
